Big Change Coming

[dukelifer]

It is looking more and more like the NBA will get rid of one and done and start a development league for kids out of high school- meaning that elite college teams may be looking at a different type of player moving forward. Here is a quote

"A plan is expected to include the NBA starting relationships with elite teenagers while they are in high school, providing skills to help them develop both on and off the court. It would ultimately open an alternate path to the NBA besides playing in college and a way 18-year-olds could earn a meaningful salary either from NBA teams or as part of an enhanced option in the developmental G League, sources said."

Nothing set in stone- but looking like the recruiting class for 2019 will not be anything like 2018. This could explain some of the recent offers that Duke has made.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...nce-again-espn

[proelitedota]

Timetables discussed is 2024 and beyond. K won't need to adjust.

[arnie]

Timetables discussed is 2024 and beyond. K won't need to adjust.

Not true - collective agreement expires in 2024 but Silver thinks he can get this through much sooner.

[weezie]

So salaries somewhere between the 26k G league and 75k two way contracts? Or likely a whole new salary structure.

I would like the new development league to include a requirement that players are exposed to some financial education.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Not true - collective agreement expires in 2024 but Silver thinks he can get this through much sooner.

I have no problem with this idea, it's a big improvement on the OAD, but I'm not sure it will be that big of a big change for college. Think about it, if the top 50 freshmen were not in the college pool, Duke and Kansas and Villanova and so on would still have the best available, and there would still be 3 pointers and poster dunks and Cameron Indoor and all that, and people would still love the game.

I think what we'd see in five years or so is a whole lot of buyers' remorse on the part of kids who skipped college, never made the NBA, played in front of empty gyms for a few bucks, and now don't have a college scholarship offer.

[El_Diablo]

Timetables discussed is 2024 and beyond. K won't need to adjust.

Maybe not now, but starting in 2024 (and for the couple decades remaining in his Duke coaching career thereafter) Coach K will have to adjust his approach. But I am confident that he will be able to pull it off.

[Saratoga2]

I have no problem with this idea, it's a big improvement on the OAD, but I'm not sure it will be that big of a big change for college. Think about it, if the top 50 freshmen were not in the college pool, Duke and Kansas and Villanova and so on would still have the best available, and there would still be 3 pointers and poster dunks and Cameron Indoor and all that, and people would still love the game.

I think what we'd see in five years or so is a whole lot of buyers' remorse on the part of kids who skipped college, never made the NBA, played in front of empty gyms for a few bucks, and now don't have a college scholarship offer.

Yes, but the kids that do go to college and play ball will have a lot less chance of ever getting into the NBA as the star recruits to the NBA G league/academies/ other arrangement will fill the majority of the available slots, along with the foreign talent. Seems like it may make playing BB in college less attractive. They still get scholarships but the path to the pros would be very difficult.

[Acymetric]

Yes, but the kids that do go to college and play ball will have a lot less chance of ever getting into the NBA as the star recruits to the NBA G league/academies/ other arrangement will fill the majority of the available slots, along with the foreign talent. Seems like it may make playing BB in college less attractive. They still get scholarships but the path to the pros would be very difficult.

The number of slots and the number of players to fill those slots are not changed by which path players take. The NBA will still appreciate the free player branding that comes with college. Not all top talent will go the pro route.

If anything, the new emphasis on the G-League might lead to more G-League teams (and thus MORE spots for college or straight-to-pro players).

[dukelifer]

Not true - collective agreement expires in 2024 but Silver thinks he can get this through much sooner.

Well if 2024- that might as well be a lifetime from now. I suspect this may move faster if all sides are in agreement. It may not happen next year- but maybe by 2020.

[Bluedog]

Would NBA players have to take a pay cut in order for these types of players to get paid $50k-ish a year? The paycut would be peanuts, but the NBA players assocation has shown in the past to fight for every last dollar to go to NBA players. Maybe they'd be okay with it if there's nearly universal disdain for the NCAA among them. Personally, I think this is a great development. Gives players who don't want to go to college another option and I don't think it'd impact the product /enjoyment fans get watching college basketball all that much. Only downside is having NBA scouts/agents in high school gyms again. As well as others who try to leech off elite talents.

[cato]

The interesting part is the part about starting to have relationships between players and NBA teams in high school. Will AAU be revamped/replaced with a soccer model? Will the Warriors have a team for high school kids that features their offensive philosophy?

I’m not sure how far the analogy goes, but if the net result is better opportunities for kids to learn on- and off-court skills compared to what AAU and the attendant hangers-on offer, it may well be a big improvement.

[flyingdutchdevil]

So salaries somewhere between the 26k G league and 75k two way contracts? Or likely a whole new salary structure.

I would like the new development league to include a requirement that players are exposed to some financial education.

So it’s more lucrative to play for Sean Miller at Arizona? Dev league can’t compete with college...

[jv001]

Not attending class to stay eligible will not be enough at Cheatville, now they will have to pay recruits to get them to attend. That really sucks for old roy but he won't know about it. GoDuke

[hallcity]

The number of slots and the number of players to fill those slots are not changed by which path players take. The NBA will still appreciate the free player branding that comes with college. Not all top talent will go the pro route.

If anything, the new emphasis on the G-League might lead to more G-League teams (and thus MORE spots for college or straight-to-pro players).

How many young players a year might end up entering these professional minor leagues? I'd guess less than a couple of dozen. Beyond that and you have such a low probability of making the NBA that I have a hard time seeing the NBA wanting to pay you. Minor professional leagues are never going to be money makers in their own right. Yes, NBA teams might make some money by selling the rights to their rejects to foreign teams but I doubt there's much money in that or they would have already been doing it. Divert off only a couple of dozen prospects a year from college to the NBA and you've hardly affected the college game at all. In any case, we don't watch college games for the names on the backs but for the names on the front, a point that people like Jay Bilas don't get.

[kAzE]

I'm interested in knowing when the cutoff would be before you have to commit to either going to college or signing with this developmental league. I imagine most players will be entertaining both options, and that's a humongous decision to make as an 18 or 19 year old. Also, I wonder if there will be any requirement to stay in school for 2 or more years, or if players can still go pro after a single year.

[niveklaen]

One concern I have is 16yr olds throwing away their ammeture(sp?) status by taking gifts from would be agents who then dont make the cut to go to the d league and are now barred from the college game - however many kids the nba actually pays there will be 5 times that number with leaches whispering in their ears when they are too young to know better.

[Edouble]

So salaries somewhere between the 26k G league and 75k two way contracts? Or likely a whole new salary structure.

I would like the new development league to include a requirement that players are exposed to some financial education.

I believe that is already part of NBA Rookie onboarding.

[Troublemaker]

It is looking more and more like the NBA will get rid of one and done and start a development league for kids out of high school- meaning that elite college teams may be looking at a different type of player moving forward. Here is a quote

"A plan is expected to include the NBA starting relationships with elite teenagers while they are in high school, providing skills to help them develop both on and off the court. It would ultimately open an alternate path to the NBA besides playing in college and a way 18-year-olds could earn a meaningful salary either from NBA teams or as part of an enhanced option in the developmental G League, sources said."

Nothing set in stone- but looking like the recruiting class for 2019 will not be anything like 2018. This could explain some of the recent offers that Duke has made.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...nce-again-espn

Both the plans and the timetable seem pretty nebulous at this point, and the NBA sounds like they're still in the idea-gathering stage. Ultimately, any change would have to be negotiated between the owners and players where both sides get to benefit.

A lot of details have to be hammered out. For example, I would think the NBA would first have to add enough G-League franchises so that every NBA team is affiliated with one G-League team. I don't see the owners wanting to develop players out of high school unless those players can one day benefit the senior club. And the high-school players should want that affiliation as well because they'll receive better development if an NBA team has a vested interest in them. So, that means players will get drafted out of high school. But what does that mean for the rookie contract and when the service time "clock" can start towards a second contract? The owners will want any time spent in the G-league to not count towards a player's service time. What does the union say about that? And on and on. A lot of details have to be hammered out. Maybe the two sides get it all done in time to affect the 2019 recruiting class, but I doubt it as of now. Regardless, it does behoove college programs to start planning for the change.

[UrinalCake]

One concern I have is 16yr olds throwing away their ammeture(sp?) status by taking gifts from would be agents who then dont make the cut to go to the d league and are now barred from the college game - however many kids the nba actually pays there will be 5 times that number with leaches whispering in their ears when they are too young to know better.

I had that thought too. So you're a pretty good 16 year old player, you're thinking of going the route of committing to one of these academies. But if you hire an agent to help you with this process, then that means you can never go to college. So the problem that we currently have - college players who are on the fence about declaring are unable to hire agents and get professional representation lest they forfeit their amateur status - is now being pushed from 19-21 year olds all the way back to 16 year olds. And the kids who do try this out and find out they're not good enough or get burned out by 19 no longer have college ball to fall back on.

In general I still like the idea though. Anything that would give an alternative to guys who just don't want to go to college for whatever reason. There are many questions still to be answered, but I'm glad the discussions are at least happening.

[uh_no]

I had that thought too. So you're a pretty good 16 year old player, you're thinking of going the route of committing to one of these academies. But if you hire an agent to help you with this process, then that means you can never go to college. So the problem that we currently have - college players who are on the fence about declaring are unable to hire agents and get professional representation lest they forfeit their amateur status - is now being pushed from 19-21 year olds all the way back to 16 year olds. And the kids who do try this out and find out they're not good enough or get burned out by 19 no longer have college ball to fall back on.

In general I still like the idea though. Anything that would give an alternative to guys who just don't want to go to college for whatever reason. There are many questions still to be answered, but I'm glad the discussions are at least happening.

No, you can go to college just like anyone else...you just can't play. Baseball players make the same choice, though I can't say at what age that choice needs to be made.