Teams' success on Senior Night

[rasputin]

In my enjoyment of last night's Hurricane, I got to thinking about how teams actually perform on Senior Night. G-Man, IIRC, was surprised about his jersey retirement and didn't play well. Rhode Island, considered an NCAAT lock, lost by 30+ to a middling St. Joseph's team last night.

Thoughts?

[kako]

In my enjoyment of last night's Hurricane, I got to thinking about how teams actually perform on Senior Night. G-Man, IIRC, was surprised about his jersey retirement and didn't play well. Rhode Island, considered an NCAAT lock, lost by 30+ to a middling St. Joseph's team last night.

Thoughts?

The last game of the season at home with seniors can't go away as, well, there will always be this game. It's very emotional for any senior (or even for an undergrad that's NBA-bound), but IMO there's nothing much that can be done about that. It's kind of expected. Coaching staffs need to deal with this appropriately.

I believe Duke has taken to retiring numbers in the next-to-last home game, but honestly I think that could wait until the next season. There's no reason to do it while they are still playing.

My freshman year was Vince Taylor's senior year. Duke was awful, but in the final home game we played Clemson. 3 OTs, and Taylor hit the go-ahead layup to win. He spoke to the crowd afterwards, and we carried him off the floor. One of my best winning memories of Duke basketball at Cameron (there weren't many at all my first 2 years).

9F

[Turk]

Usually, it's the other way around. "Mediocre or even bad team hosts ranked powerhouse and pulls off the upset on their Senior Night" is a daily highlight at this time of year.

I was at the St Joe's / URI game last night. URI has clinched the A-10 #1 seed, and everyone was expecting a blowout. St Joe's started out hot and never cooled off; Danny Hurley was screaming at his players in the first half, "Wake the **** up!!!" but they never did. And St. Joe's is better than their record - bunch of injuries and close losses, so they were dangerous enough.

Lunardi told me that when SJU won the A-10 in 2014 and 2016, in both years the Hawks lost their Senior Day games to teams they should have beat easily (LaSalle and Duquesne). So maybe it happens more often than we think; we just don't hear about it that often because the good team gets a chance to redeem itself in the conference / NCAA tourney.

It would make an interesting little research exercise for someone who can crunch a little data...

[RPS]

The two Duke-Carolina Senior Days (then) while I was a student were great successes: the 7-0 "Airball" game and the "Tink throws roses" game.

[Turk]

The last game of the season at home with seniors can't go away as, well, there will always be this game. It's very emotional for any senior (or even for an undergrad that's NBA-bound), but IMO there's nothing much that can be done about that. It's kind of expected. Coaching staffs need to deal with this appropriately.

I believe Duke has taken to retiring numbers in the next-to-last home game, but honestly I think that could wait until the next season. There's no reason to do it while they are still playing.

My freshman year was Vince Taylor's senior year. Duke was awful, but in the final home game we played Clemson. 3 OTs, and Taylor hit the go-ahead layup to win. He spoke to the crowd afterwards, and we carried him off the floor. One of my best winning memories of Duke basketball at Cameron (there weren't many at all my first 2 years).

9F

I was a soph and was also at that Clemson game. I don't recall Clemson being very good either, so I wouldn't call it much of an upset. (Not like Gene Banks / Kenny Dennard vs. unc the previous year!)

Hypothesis: Division 1 home teams on Senior Night (or Day) win 5-10% more frequently than the average winning percentage for all other regular season conference games.

That's what my (considerable) gut is telling me, but I've read "Undoing Project", so I am unwilling to bet an "eye test" pie against actual data.
Analytics people, the ball is in your court!

[kako]

I was a soph and was also at that Clemson game. I don't recall Clemson being very good either, so I wouldn't call it much of an upset. (Not like Gene Banks / Kenny Dennard vs. unc the previous year!)

Didn't mean to imply it was a definite upset, though most any game Duke won that year might have been. It was, however, an emotional game. But yeah yeah yeah - the Banks shot was better. And there was beer on points.

[Kedsy]

Duke senior night W/L record:

Last 10 years: 7-3 .700 (2-3 vs. UNC; 3-3 vs. ranked; 4-0 vs. unranked); overall ACC record: 127-43 (.747)
Last 20 years: 14-6 .700 (6-4 vs. UNC; 5-6 vs. ranked; 9-0 vs. unranked); overall ACC record: 256-74 (.776)
Last 30 years: 20-10 .667 (8-7 vs. UNC; 9-9 vs. ranked; 11-1 vs. unranked); overall ACC record: 352-130 (.730)
Last 40 years: 27-13 .675 (11-9 vs. UNC; 14-11 vs. ranked; 13-2 vs. unranked); overall ACC record: 425-193 (.688)

Considering that 60+% of our senior games are against ranked teams, it looks like we perform at least a little better on senior nights.

[Kedsy]

Duke senior night W/L record:

Last 10 years: 7-3 .700 (2-3 vs. UNC; 3-3 vs. ranked; 4-0 vs. unranked); overall ACC record: 127-43 (.747)
Last 20 years: 14-6 .700 (6-4 vs. UNC; 5-6 vs. ranked; 9-0 vs. unranked); overall ACC record: 256-74 (.776)
Last 30 years: 20-10 .667 (8-7 vs. UNC; 9-9 vs. ranked; 11-1 vs. unranked); overall ACC record: 352-130 (.730)
Last 40 years: 27-13 .675 (11-9 vs. UNC; 14-11 vs. ranked; 13-2 vs. unranked); overall ACC record: 425-193 (.688)

Considering that 60+% of our senior games are against ranked teams, it looks like we perform at least a little better on senior nights.

I thought our win/loss against ranked teams on senior night looked low, so I went through the last 20 seasons to see what our overall record looked like against ranked teams:

Last 10 years against ranked teams: 46-25 (.648) regular season; 14-7 (.667) post-season
Last 20 years against ranked teams: 101-47 (.682) regular season; 27-15 (.643) post-season

I don't feel like going back any further, but this tells a potentially interesting story: On senior night we appear to be better than usual against unranked teams but worse than usual against ranked teams.

Unless... it's just UNC?

Last 10 years against UNC: 14-8 (.636)
Last 20 years against UNC: 31-16 (.660)

So, nope. While we dominate unranked teams on senior night, we appear to perform worse against both ranked teams and against UNC (obviously a lot of overlap) on senior night than we do on non-senior nights.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I hate senior night for two reasons...you say goodbye to seniors, and all the game pressure is on the home team. It's a very hard game to win...and opponents love to ruin senior nights for others.

And of course, the bitter sweet sign: "Dennard and Banks...Goodbye and THANKS"

[Fish80]

The two Duke-Carolina Senior Days (then) while I was a student were great successes: the 7-0 "Airball" game and the "Tink throws roses" game.

I remember that 7-0 game. IIRC Spanarkel had all 7.

[Kedsy]

I remember that 7-0 game. IIRC Spanarkel had all 7.

I was there. I'm almost certain this is incorrect. I know Gminski hit a free throw. And I'm pretty sure the first basket was by Vince Taylor. It's possible Spanarkel scored the other four points.

[jv001]

I was there. I'm almost certain this is incorrect. I know Gminski hit a free throw. And I'm pretty sure the first basket was by Vince Taylor. It's possible Spanarkel cored the other four points.

Didn't G-Man have a dunk as well? GoDuke1

[Kedsy]

Didn't G-Man have a dunk as well? GoDuke1

He may have. It was a long time ago and my memory's not what it once was. Or at least I think that's true, I really can't recall.

[DU82]

He may have. It was a long time ago and my memory's not what it once was. Or at least I think that's true, I really can't recall.

Vince Taylor - 2 (Duke got the tip and Vince scored on the first possession.)
Mike Gminski - 3 (dunk and free throw)
Jim Spanarkel - 2 (late shot from the baseline.)

[devildeac]

UK won tonight on their senior night. But, wait a minute here. UK doesn't have a senior on their roster.

Ok, dd , but who cares? Well, it is a senior night thread.

[Kedsy]

UK won tonight on their senior night. But, wait a minute here. UK doesn't have a senior on their roster.

Ok, dd , but who cares? Well, it is a senior night thread.

If a tree falls on senior night, but there aren't any seniors to fall on, does it make any sou... wait, what?

[duketaylor]

The two Duke-Carolina Senior Days (then) while I was a student were great successes: the 7-0 "Airball" game and the "Tink throws roses" game.

I was a freshman at this Tink game. I believe it was a noon game. I also think Tink scored the winning points in OT. Later we piled into my car and went to G'boro for a Bruce concert. Amazing day/night. Only bummer: someone stole my car stereo during the concert. We had plenty to talk about on the trip back to Derm tho