ACC Tournament Seeding Probabilities

[ndkjr70]

Our seeding just got a little bit more in flux after the loss last night.

The teams left in contention for a top-4 slot are as follows:

1. UVA 15-1 (Clinched #1 seed)
2. Duke 12-5 (vs. UNC)
3. UNC 11-5 (vs. Miami, @ Duke)
4. NCSU 10-6 (@ GT, vs. Louisville)
5. Clemson 10-6 (FSU, @ Syracuse)

For Duke to clinch a double-bye, they need:
WIN vs UNC
or
UNC WIN vs. Miami
or
(1) Loss by NCSU or Clemson

There's only one real scenario that Duke doesn't have a double-bye: if UNC loses to Miami and beats Duke, and State and Clemson both win out, there would be a 4-team tie at 12-6. Duke would lose that tie-breaker due to their record (1-4) against the other teams.

The thing that was really impacted was the 2 or 3 seed. A win last night would have locked that up. Unfortunately, they'll have to beat the Cheats to control that spot, or get help from State.

For Duke to get the 2 or 3-seed (thus avoiding UVA until the ACC Title Game), they need:
WIN vs UNC
or
(1) loss by NCSU

Just for fun, in a "best reasonable case" scenario -- should UNC lose to Duke in the Finale and NCSU win both of their remaining games, UNC would get the 4 seed and have to face (likely) Clemson in their first game, UVA in their second game, and then someone from the 2/3 side of the bracket in the championship game.

[PackMan97]

For Duke to get the 2 or 3-seed (thus avoiding UVA until the ACC Title Game), they need:
WIN vs UNC
or
(1) loss by NCSU

I'll take option A please, I'm not a big fan of Plan B.

[ndkjr70]

One other potential wrinkle.

Notre Dame is going to finish 8-10. They'll beat Pitt and they'll lose to UVA at UVA. There's a pretty good chance Bonzie Colson is ready to roll for the ACC Tournament.

It goes without saying that a Bonzie-led Notre Dame team is one of the 5 best teams in the conference, so it would be a shame to have the "privilege" of facing them in our first game. If ND finishes as the #10 seed (64% chance at 8-10 according to playoffstatus.com), we'll hope to be the 3 seed in the tournament. If ND finishes as the #11 seed (19% chance at 8-10 according to playoffstatus.com), we'll hope to be the 2 seed in the tournament.

Of course, if ND can go ahead and finish as the #9 seed (17% chance at 8-10) and play in UVA's first game... that would be pretty, pretty, prettttty cool.

[duke2x]

http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb.

It has the results of every ACC game and lets you play around with outcomes.

The Duke as #5 seed is so remote that I would not worry about it. I was wrong when I said we clinched a double bye Saturday, but I was also about 99.99% right.

We need FSU to win at Clemson to avoid ND, an unlikely outcome. Keep in mind#10 ND would be playing us after 1.5 games v. Pitt and then the #7 seed (TBD). Day 2 over Day 1 has some advantages according to coaches. Day 3 over Day 1 normally does not, particularly for a team like ND. I readily acknowledge this Duke team is capable of anything outside Cameron.

I much prefer having UVA/UNC/Clemson on the top half of the bracket. The Duke/UVA team that doesn't have to face UNC before the finals has the advantage to win it if things hold to seed. We need State to win the next 2, a potentially viable outcome, but State has a history of not doing anything right. Go Pack.

[PackMan97]

but State HAD a history of not doing anything right. Go Pack.

Fixed that for you. Keatts has really changed the culture around State's program.

[pfrduke]

With 9 games to go in the regular season, here's how the seeding odds stack up (odds per Pomeroy - may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding):

1 - Virginia (100%)
2 - Duke (75%); UNC (25%)
3 - NC State (39%); Clemson (27.3%); Duke (15.3%); Miami (10.1%); Virginia Tech (6.8%); Louisville (1.6%)
4 - Clemson (51.6%); Miami (17.8%); Virginia Tech (16.9%); NC State (5.4%); Duke (4.6%); Louisville (2.3%); UNC (1.4%)
5 - Miami (27.1%); NC State (26%); UNC (24.4%); Virginia Tech (11.9%); Duke (5.2%); Clemson (4.8%); Louisville (0.6%)
6 - UNC (49.2%); Clemson (16.3%); Louisville (11.5%); Miami (9.8%); NC State (9.7%); Virginia Tech (3.4%)
7 - Virginia Tech (34.5%); Miami (32.2%); Louisville (27.4%); NC State (5.9%)
8 - Louisville (28.7%); Florida State (27.8%); Virginia Tech (26.5%); NC State (14%); Miami (2.9%)
9 - Florida State (37.5%); Notre Dame (34.6%); Louisville (27.8%)
10 - Notre Dame (65.4%); Boston College (24%); Florida State (10.6%)
11 - Boston College (40.3%); Syracuse (35.7%); Florida State (24%)
12 - Syracuse (64.3%); Boston College (35.7%)
13 - Georgia Tech (53%); Wake Forest (47%)
14 - Wake Forest (53%); Georgia Tech (47%)
15 - Pittsburgh (100%)

Some notes:

The likeliest bracket almost, but not quite, matches the likeliest team to win each seed. Likeliest bracket is UVA-Duke-NC State-Clemson-Miami-UNC-Virginia Tech-Florida State-Louisville-Notre Dame-Boston College-Syracuse-Georgia Tech-Wake Forest-Pittsburgh (in other words, Louisville and FSU swap).

UNC pretty much needs to win Saturday to get a double-bye. They only way they can lose but still get the 4-seed is if NC State loses out and Syracuse beats Clemson and Virginia beats Louisville.

Louisville can still finish anywhere from 3-9. It gets the 3 if it wins out, Duke beats UNC, Miami beats Virginia Tech, and Syracuse beats Clemson; it's options for the 4 are a little more diverse. Of course, with UVA and a trip to NC State on the radar, winning out will be a tall order. Amazingly, Louisville can win out and still finish in the 7 spot if Duke beats UNC, Miami beats Virginia Tech, State beats Georgia Tech, and Syracuse beats Clemson - that would create a 5-way tie for 3rd at 11-7 and Louisville comes out on the short end of that tiebreaker (Virginia Tech beating Miami also creates a 5-way tie for 3rd in that scenario, but Louisville wins that tiebreaker - it's amazing that Louisville can be in 2 separate 5-way ties, with 4 overlapping teams, and come in 1st in one and last in the other).

Clemson has roughly an 80% chance of a double-bye - any win gets them there, and plenty of scenarios with a loss that keep them 3 or 4. Even with a loss to Syracuse, they're roughly equally likely to end up 3 or 4 as 5 or 6.

As has been written elsewhere before, the Duke to the 5 scenario requires a loss to UNC plus NC State and Clemson winning out - we come in last in a 4-way tiebreak at 12-6.

I think UVA would be thrilled with Clemson and Miami on their side of the bracket and Duke, UNC, and Virginia Tech in the opposite. I suspect their least favorite outcomes would be seeing Duke in the 4/5 line and so they're probably pulling for a Duke win Saturday.

[Bob Green]

As has been written elsewhere before, the Duke to the 5 scenario requires a loss to UNC plus NC State and Clemson winning out - we come in last in a 4-way tiebreak at 12-6.

Go Georgia Tech! This reason is legit bit I'm good with any reason to root for a Wolfpack defeat.

[freshmanjs]

With 9 games to go in the regular season, here's how the seeding odds stack up (odds per Pomeroy - may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding):

1 - Virginia (100%)
2 - Duke (75%); UNC (25%)
3 - NC State (39%); Clemson (27.3%); Duke (15.3%); Miami (10.1%); Virginia Tech (6.8%); Louisville (1.6%)
4 - Clemson (51.6%); Miami (17.8%); Virginia Tech (16.9%); NC State (5.4%); Duke (4.6%); Louisville (2.3%); UNC (1.4%)
5 - Miami (27.1%); NC State (26%); UNC (24.4%); Virginia Tech (11.9%); Duke (5.2%); Clemson (4.8%); Louisville (0.6%)
6 - UNC (49.2%); Clemson (16.3%); Louisville (11.5%); Miami (9.8%); NC State (9.7%); Virginia Tech (3.4%)
7 - Virginia Tech (34.5%); Miami (32.2%); Louisville (27.4%); NC State (5.9%)
8 - Louisville (28.7%); Florida State (27.8%); Virginia Tech (26.5%); NC State (14%); Miami (2.9%)
9 - Florida State (37.5%); Notre Dame (34.6%); Louisville (27.8%)
10 - Notre Dame (65.4%); Boston College (24%); Florida State (10.6%)
11 - Boston College (40.3%); Syracuse (35.7%); Florida State (24%)
12 - Syracuse (64.3%); Boston College (35.7%)
13 - Georgia Tech (53%); Wake Forest (47%)
14 - Wake Forest (53%); Georgia Tech (47%)
15 - Pittsburgh (100%)

Some notes:

The likeliest bracket almost, but not quite, matches the likeliest team to win each seed. Likeliest bracket is UVA-Duke-NC State-Clemson-Miami-UNC-Virginia Tech-Florida State-Louisville-Notre Dame-Boston College-Syracuse-Georgia Tech-Wake Forest-Pittsburgh (in other words, Louisville and FSU swap).

UNC pretty much needs to win Saturday to get a double-bye. They only way they can lose but still get the 4-seed is if NC State loses out and Syracuse beats Clemson and Virginia beats Louisville.

Louisville can still finish anywhere from 3-9. It gets the 3 if it wins out, Duke beats UNC, Miami beats Virginia Tech, and Syracuse beats Clemson; it's options for the 4 are a little more diverse. Of course, with UVA and a trip to NC State on the radar, winning out will be a tall order. Amazingly, Louisville can win out and still finish in the 7 spot if Duke beats UNC, Miami beats Virginia Tech, State beats Georgia Tech, and Syracuse beats Clemson - that would create a 5-way tie for 3rd at 11-7 and Louisville comes out on the short end of that tiebreaker (Virginia Tech beating Miami also creates a 5-way tie for 3rd in that scenario, but Louisville wins that tiebreaker - it's amazing that Louisville can be in 2 separate 5-way ties, with 4 overlapping teams, and come in 1st in one and last in the other).

Clemson has roughly an 80% chance of a double-bye - any win gets them there, and plenty of scenarios with a loss that keep them 3 or 4. Even with a loss to Syracuse, they're roughly equally likely to end up 3 or 4 as 5 or 6.

As has been written elsewhere before, the Duke to the 5 scenario requires a loss to UNC plus NC State and Clemson winning out - we come in last in a 4-way tiebreak at 12-6.

I think UVA would be thrilled with Clemson and Miami on their side of the bracket and Duke, UNC, and Virginia Tech in the opposite. I suspect their least favorite outcomes would be seeing Duke in the 4/5 line and so they're probably pulling for a Duke win Saturday.

I'm not quite following this. What does it mean to say that "any win" gets Clemson a double bye, when they only have 1 game left? Odds of Duke getting the #5 seem understated here. For that to happen, Duke would need to lose on Saturday and Clemson to beat Syracuse (likely) and NCSU to beat Ga Tech (likely) and Louisville (toss-up).

[pfrduke]

I'm not quite following this. What does it mean to say that "any win" gets Clemson a double bye, when they only have 1 game left? Odds of Duke getting the #5 seem understated here. For that to happen, Duke would need to lose on Saturday and Clemson to beat Syracuse (likely) and NCSU to beat Ga Tech (likely) and Louisville (toss-up).

I just meant "a" win. Typo.

Per Pomeroy, we're 75% favorites on Saturday (hence the 75% likelihood of the 2 seed). To get the 5 we need a loss to UNC (25% outcome), Clemson winning on the road against Syracuse (a 53% outcome), and NC State beating GT in Atlanta (65%) and Louisville at home (60%). Multiply all that together and you're at 5.2%.

[freshmanjs]

I just meant "a" win. Typo.

Per Pomeroy, we're 75% favorites on Saturday (hence the 75% likelihood of the 2 seed). To get the 5 we need a loss to UNC (25% outcome), Clemson winning on the road against Syracuse (a 53% outcome), and NC State beating GT in Atlanta (65%) and Louisville at home (60%). Multiply all that together and you're at 5.2%.

Thanks...makes sense. Although, NCSU is looking like 100% right now... (Or not )

[JasonEvans]

Duke can finish no lower than third now (I think)... thanks Ga Tech!

[arnie]

Duke can finish no lower than third now (I think)... thanks Ga Tech!

I’ve seen very little of Tech this year, they looked great in 2nd half.

[pfrduke]

Duke can finish no lower than third now (I think)... thanks Ga Tech!

Correct - we're 2 with a win and 3 with a loss. Nice to stay off Virginia's side of the bracket - that rematch (should it happen, knock on wood) deserves to be for a championship

[duke2x]

You are correct. Win #2, Lose #3. Also, win and UNC loses a double bye.

[BigWayne]

Just watched the end of the UVA-Louisville game. Can't believe Louisville gave that away.

[pfrduke]

Just watched the end of the UVA-Louisville game. Can't believe Louisville gave that away.

Louisville had a four point lead with less than a second to play and managed to give up two separate scores, for 5 points, in that time. I've never seen anything like it.

[devildeac]

Louisville had a four point lead with less than a second to play and managed to give up two separate scores, for 5 points, in that time. I've never seen anything like it.

So much for Bill James and "The Lead Is Safe."

[duke2x]

Louisville had a four point lead with less than a second to play and managed to give up two separate scores, for 5 points, in that time. I've never seen anything like it.

The only thing close I can remember is a CT-Miami game in Miami about 15 years ago. I almost fell off the treadmill when Miami won.

[ndkjr70]

Can anyone tell me the *exact* scenario(s?) that need to happen for UNC to get the 5th seed? That would be the best case scenario for Duke, obviously.

[duketaylor]

So much for Bill James and "The Lead Is Safe."

No doubt, Loserville was a "lock" at the .9 sec time.