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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2009

    ACC Tournament Seeding Probabilities

    Our seeding just got a little bit more in flux after the loss last night.

    The teams left in contention for a top-4 slot are as follows:

    1. UVA 15-1 (Clinched #1 seed)
    2. Duke 12-5 (vs. UNC)
    3. UNC 11-5 (vs. Miami, @ Duke)
    4. NCSU 10-6 (@ GT, vs. Louisville)
    5. Clemson 10-6 (FSU, @ Syracuse)

    For Duke to clinch a double-bye, they need:
    WIN vs UNC
    or
    UNC WIN vs. Miami
    or
    (1) Loss by NCSU or Clemson

    There's only one real scenario that Duke doesn't have a double-bye: if UNC loses to Miami and beats Duke, and State and Clemson both win out, there would be a 4-team tie at 12-6. Duke would lose that tie-breaker due to their record (1-4) against the other teams.

    The thing that was really impacted was the 2 or 3 seed. A win last night would have locked that up. Unfortunately, they'll have to beat the Cheats to control that spot, or get help from State.

    For Duke to get the 2 or 3-seed (thus avoiding UVA until the ACC Title Game), they need:
    WIN vs UNC
    or
    (1) loss by NCSU

    Just for fun, in a "best reasonable case" scenario -- should UNC lose to Duke in the Finale and NCSU win both of their remaining games, UNC would get the 4 seed and have to face (likely) Clemson in their first game, UVA in their second game, and then someone from the 2/3 side of the bracket in the championship game.
    Last edited by ndkjr70; 02-27-2018 at 10:20 AM.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ndkjr70 View Post
    For Duke to get the 2 or 3-seed (thus avoiding UVA until the ACC Title Game), they need:
    WIN vs UNC
    or
    (1) loss by NCSU
    I'll take option A please, I'm not a big fan of Plan B.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    One other potential wrinkle.

    Notre Dame is going to finish 8-10. They'll beat Pitt and they'll lose to UVA at UVA. There's a pretty good chance Bonzie Colson is ready to roll for the ACC Tournament.

    It goes without saying that a Bonzie-led Notre Dame team is one of the 5 best teams in the conference, so it would be a shame to have the "privilege" of facing them in our first game. If ND finishes as the #10 seed (64% chance at 8-10 according to playoffstatus.com), we'll hope to be the 3 seed in the tournament. If ND finishes as the #11 seed (19% chance at 8-10 according to playoffstatus.com), we'll hope to be the 2 seed in the tournament.

    Of course, if ND can go ahead and finish as the #9 seed (17% chance at 8-10) and play in UVA's first game... that would be pretty, pretty, prettttty cool.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Earth
    http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb.

    It has the results of every ACC game and lets you play around with outcomes.

    The Duke as #5 seed is so remote that I would not worry about it. I was wrong when I said we clinched a double bye Saturday, but I was also about 99.99% right.

    We need FSU to win at Clemson to avoid ND, an unlikely outcome. Keep in mind#10 ND would be playing us after 1.5 games v. Pitt and then the #7 seed (TBD). Day 2 over Day 1 has some advantages according to coaches. Day 3 over Day 1 normally does not, particularly for a team like ND. I readily acknowledge this Duke team is capable of anything outside Cameron.

    I much prefer having UVA/UNC/Clemson on the top half of the bracket. The Duke/UVA team that doesn't have to face UNC before the finals has the advantage to win it if things hold to seed. We need State to win the next 2, a potentially viable outcome, but State has a history of not doing anything right. Go Pack.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by duke2x View Post
    but State HAD a history of not doing anything right. Go Pack.
    Fixed that for you. Keatts has really changed the culture around State's program.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    With 9 games to go in the regular season, here's how the seeding odds stack up (odds per Pomeroy - may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding):

    1 - Virginia (100%)
    2 - Duke (75%); UNC (25%)
    3 - NC State (39%); Clemson (27.3%); Duke (15.3%); Miami (10.1%); Virginia Tech (6.8%); Louisville (1.6%)
    4 - Clemson (51.6%); Miami (17.8%); Virginia Tech (16.9%); NC State (5.4%); Duke (4.6%); Louisville (2.3%); UNC (1.4%)
    5 - Miami (27.1%); NC State (26%); UNC (24.4%); Virginia Tech (11.9%); Duke (5.2%); Clemson (4.8%); Louisville (0.6%)
    6 - UNC (49.2%); Clemson (16.3%); Louisville (11.5%); Miami (9.8%); NC State (9.7%); Virginia Tech (3.4%)
    7 - Virginia Tech (34.5%); Miami (32.2%); Louisville (27.4%); NC State (5.9%)
    8 - Louisville (28.7%); Florida State (27.8%); Virginia Tech (26.5%); NC State (14%); Miami (2.9%)
    9 - Florida State (37.5%); Notre Dame (34.6%); Louisville (27.8%)
    10 - Notre Dame (65.4%); Boston College (24%); Florida State (10.6%)
    11 - Boston College (40.3%); Syracuse (35.7%); Florida State (24%)
    12 - Syracuse (64.3%); Boston College (35.7%)
    13 - Georgia Tech (53%); Wake Forest (47%)
    14 - Wake Forest (53%); Georgia Tech (47%)
    15 - Pittsburgh (100%)

    Some notes:

    The likeliest bracket almost, but not quite, matches the likeliest team to win each seed. Likeliest bracket is UVA-Duke-NC State-Clemson-Miami-UNC-Virginia Tech-Florida State-Louisville-Notre Dame-Boston College-Syracuse-Georgia Tech-Wake Forest-Pittsburgh (in other words, Louisville and FSU swap).

    UNC pretty much needs to win Saturday to get a double-bye. They only way they can lose but still get the 4-seed is if NC State loses out and Syracuse beats Clemson and Virginia beats Louisville.

    Louisville can still finish anywhere from 3-9. It gets the 3 if it wins out, Duke beats UNC, Miami beats Virginia Tech, and Syracuse beats Clemson; it's options for the 4 are a little more diverse. Of course, with UVA and a trip to NC State on the radar, winning out will be a tall order. Amazingly, Louisville can win out and still finish in the 7 spot if Duke beats UNC, Miami beats Virginia Tech, State beats Georgia Tech, and Syracuse beats Clemson - that would create a 5-way tie for 3rd at 11-7 and Louisville comes out on the short end of that tiebreaker (Virginia Tech beating Miami also creates a 5-way tie for 3rd in that scenario, but Louisville wins that tiebreaker - it's amazing that Louisville can be in 2 separate 5-way ties, with 4 overlapping teams, and come in 1st in one and last in the other).

    Clemson has roughly an 80% chance of a double-bye - any win gets them there, and plenty of scenarios with a loss that keep them 3 or 4. Even with a loss to Syracuse, they're roughly equally likely to end up 3 or 4 as 5 or 6.

    As has been written elsewhere before, the Duke to the 5 scenario requires a loss to UNC plus NC State and Clemson winning out - we come in last in a 4-way tiebreak at 12-6.

    I think UVA would be thrilled with Clemson and Miami on their side of the bracket and Duke, UNC, and Virginia Tech in the opposite. I suspect their least favorite outcomes would be seeing Duke in the 4/5 line and so they're probably pulling for a Duke win Saturday.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post

    As has been written elsewhere before, the Duke to the 5 scenario requires a loss to UNC plus NC State and Clemson winning out - we come in last in a 4-way tiebreak at 12-6.
    Go Georgia Tech! This reason is legit bit I'm good with any reason to root for a Wolfpack defeat.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    With 9 games to go in the regular season, here's how the seeding odds stack up (odds per Pomeroy - may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding):

    1 - Virginia (100%)
    2 - Duke (75%); UNC (25%)
    3 - NC State (39%); Clemson (27.3%); Duke (15.3%); Miami (10.1%); Virginia Tech (6.8%); Louisville (1.6%)
    4 - Clemson (51.6%); Miami (17.8%); Virginia Tech (16.9%); NC State (5.4%); Duke (4.6%); Louisville (2.3%); UNC (1.4%)
    5 - Miami (27.1%); NC State (26%); UNC (24.4%); Virginia Tech (11.9%); Duke (5.2%); Clemson (4.8%); Louisville (0.6%)
    6 - UNC (49.2%); Clemson (16.3%); Louisville (11.5%); Miami (9.8%); NC State (9.7%); Virginia Tech (3.4%)
    7 - Virginia Tech (34.5%); Miami (32.2%); Louisville (27.4%); NC State (5.9%)
    8 - Louisville (28.7%); Florida State (27.8%); Virginia Tech (26.5%); NC State (14%); Miami (2.9%)
    9 - Florida State (37.5%); Notre Dame (34.6%); Louisville (27.8%)
    10 - Notre Dame (65.4%); Boston College (24%); Florida State (10.6%)
    11 - Boston College (40.3%); Syracuse (35.7%); Florida State (24%)
    12 - Syracuse (64.3%); Boston College (35.7%)
    13 - Georgia Tech (53%); Wake Forest (47%)
    14 - Wake Forest (53%); Georgia Tech (47%)
    15 - Pittsburgh (100%)

    Some notes:

    The likeliest bracket almost, but not quite, matches the likeliest team to win each seed. Likeliest bracket is UVA-Duke-NC State-Clemson-Miami-UNC-Virginia Tech-Florida State-Louisville-Notre Dame-Boston College-Syracuse-Georgia Tech-Wake Forest-Pittsburgh (in other words, Louisville and FSU swap).

    UNC pretty much needs to win Saturday to get a double-bye. They only way they can lose but still get the 4-seed is if NC State loses out and Syracuse beats Clemson and Virginia beats Louisville.

    Louisville can still finish anywhere from 3-9. It gets the 3 if it wins out, Duke beats UNC, Miami beats Virginia Tech, and Syracuse beats Clemson; it's options for the 4 are a little more diverse. Of course, with UVA and a trip to NC State on the radar, winning out will be a tall order. Amazingly, Louisville can win out and still finish in the 7 spot if Duke beats UNC, Miami beats Virginia Tech, State beats Georgia Tech, and Syracuse beats Clemson - that would create a 5-way tie for 3rd at 11-7 and Louisville comes out on the short end of that tiebreaker (Virginia Tech beating Miami also creates a 5-way tie for 3rd in that scenario, but Louisville wins that tiebreaker - it's amazing that Louisville can be in 2 separate 5-way ties, with 4 overlapping teams, and come in 1st in one and last in the other).

    Clemson has roughly an 80% chance of a double-bye - any win gets them there, and plenty of scenarios with a loss that keep them 3 or 4. Even with a loss to Syracuse, they're roughly equally likely to end up 3 or 4 as 5 or 6.

    As has been written elsewhere before, the Duke to the 5 scenario requires a loss to UNC plus NC State and Clemson winning out - we come in last in a 4-way tiebreak at 12-6.

    I think UVA would be thrilled with Clemson and Miami on their side of the bracket and Duke, UNC, and Virginia Tech in the opposite. I suspect their least favorite outcomes would be seeing Duke in the 4/5 line and so they're probably pulling for a Duke win Saturday.
    I'm not quite following this. What does it mean to say that "any win" gets Clemson a double bye, when they only have 1 game left? Odds of Duke getting the #5 seem understated here. For that to happen, Duke would need to lose on Saturday and Clemson to beat Syracuse (likely) and NCSU to beat Ga Tech (likely) and Louisville (toss-up).

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by freshmanjs View Post
    I'm not quite following this. What does it mean to say that "any win" gets Clemson a double bye, when they only have 1 game left? Odds of Duke getting the #5 seem understated here. For that to happen, Duke would need to lose on Saturday and Clemson to beat Syracuse (likely) and NCSU to beat Ga Tech (likely) and Louisville (toss-up).
    I just meant "a" win. Typo.

    Per Pomeroy, we're 75% favorites on Saturday (hence the 75% likelihood of the 2 seed). To get the 5 we need a loss to UNC (25% outcome), Clemson winning on the road against Syracuse (a 53% outcome), and NC State beating GT in Atlanta (65%) and Louisville at home (60%). Multiply all that together and you're at 5.2%.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    I just meant "a" win. Typo.

    Per Pomeroy, we're 75% favorites on Saturday (hence the 75% likelihood of the 2 seed). To get the 5 we need a loss to UNC (25% outcome), Clemson winning on the road against Syracuse (a 53% outcome), and NC State beating GT in Atlanta (65%) and Louisville at home (60%). Multiply all that together and you're at 5.2%.
    Thanks...makes sense. Although, NCSU is looking like 100% right now... (Or not )

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Duke can finish no lower than third now (I think)... thanks Ga Tech!
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Duke can finish no lower than third now (I think)... thanks Ga Tech!
    Iíve seen very little of Tech this year, they looked great in 2nd half.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Duke can finish no lower than third now (I think)... thanks Ga Tech!
    Correct - we're 2 with a win and 3 with a loss. Nice to stay off Virginia's side of the bracket - that rematch (should it happen, knock on wood) deserves to be for a championship
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Earth
    You are correct. Win #2, Lose #3. Also, win and UNC loses a double bye.

  15. #15
    Just watched the end of the UVA-Louisville game. Can't believe Louisville gave that away.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by BigWayne View Post
    Just watched the end of the UVA-Louisville game. Can't believe Louisville gave that away.
    Louisville had a four point lead with less than a second to play and managed to give up two separate scores, for 5 points, in that time. I've never seen anything like it.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Louisville had a four point lead with less than a second to play and managed to give up two separate scores, for 5 points, in that time. I've never seen anything like it.
    So much for Bill James and "The Lead Is Safe."
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Earth
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Louisville had a four point lead with less than a second to play and managed to give up two separate scores, for 5 points, in that time. I've never seen anything like it.
    The only thing close I can remember is a CT-Miami game in Miami about 15 years ago. I almost fell off the treadmill when Miami won.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Can anyone tell me the *exact* scenario(s?) that need to happen for UNC to get the 5th seed? That would be the best case scenario for Duke, obviously.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, Va
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    So much for Bill James and "The Lead Is Safe."
    No doubt, Loserville was a "lock" at the .9 sec time.

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