How Do We Reacclimate MBIII?

[dukelifer]

Count me in as not at all worried about integrating Bags. If/when he comes back, it will be a turbo boost.

If Bags can focus on defensive rebounding and give more punch than Javin on Offense - Duke will be a better team. I do think that Javin is a better more natural defender- so that is something to watch. But Bags will help in those moments where the offense can stall as he can create as well. Duke is playing much better of late- the D is confusing opponents- and perhaps Allen is peaking at the right time. Still need to see a bit more to be convinced.

[Troublemaker]

Can't spork you, but this is right on. However, I don't believe the coaching staff just didn't know how much better we are at zone. I think they knew very early on that zone would be very effective with this group. My hunch is that they just really wanted to see if we could get better at M2M over time. Did it cost us a few wins? Very possible. But in the long run, it doesn't matter. The M2M experiment seems to have failed, so now we're playing zone full time, as many of us predicted we would.

Yeah, I agree that they probably recognized this early on. What I meant was that they finally committed to it and gave up on the dream of converting this to a man-to-man team. You can see it in the progression throughout the season. When things looked bleak within a game, we'd switch to zone, and that would often spur a big run. But the next game, we'd go back to man-to-man and try again. And we tried a number of different solutions in man-to-man, but none seemed to work with any consistency. Finally, with Bagley hurt and Bolden and DeLaurier still playing their way back into shape, we decided to go zone for a full game to survive 40 minutes. And then we had the miraculous performance in zone against Va Tech, and the staff finally decided it was time to commit to the zone.

Considering how we can count the number of zone-first teams around the country on one hand (if we can even get up to 5), I think Coach K and the staff deserve a lot of credit for making the transition. (Not that either of you guys are saying otherwise). College basketball coaches just don't seem to like playing zone (or at least they prefer to be man-first), and I'm sure they have some logical reasons why if we surveyed them.

It took awhile for Coach K to go zone-first but it did not take awhile for Coach K to go zone. He already had the team practicing zone pretty extensively in the preseason and was stating in press conferences that we would be a good zone team. And then, while we played m2m first in most of our games, he always used zone very liberally, particular in 2nd halves of games. That was how everyone -- including the staff -- could notice that this team was good in zone.

So, kudos to the staff for making the full transition eventually. I'm not sure many coaches would've done the same. And that doesn't get into how it's not as simple as just saying "Let's go play zone." You have to have the knowledge of how to implement one (which Coach K learned from his friend and USA assistant Boeheim), and you have to know what drills to run in practice for the players to improve and play it well, and you have to be know all the adjustments you can make within the zone to take away whatever the opponent is hurting you with.

[WVDUKEFAN]

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I don't see MB III's reacclimation into the line up as a problem, especially from the offensive end. As others have posted, limited minutes to start until he knocks the rust off is a good approach. I would like to see how he handles the defense. As a team, the defense is really starting to get good. The bigger picture here is that psychologically, the team has learned they are not as dependent on him as they might have thought they were (not that they ever really needed to be - he didn't need to score 25 points a game for them to win, but that's what was happening). I also think he's learned a lot sitting on the bench next to the coaches. He can obviously play the game, but he got to observe it a lot more. Seeing it in the game and getting that instant feedback is better than film study. We also have a comfort level of rotating Marques and Jav into the mix at any juncture. While neither is an MBIII, we are going to get solid minutes. They both played great last night - blocks, dunks, and being really active on both ends of the floor. I think the combination of Grayson running the point and the commitment to zone defense were great choices. We still haven't seen the best Duke basketball to be played this season in my opinion.

[COYS]

Count me as another who is not too worried about Marvin coming back. As has been discussed, already, any comparison with Kyrie's return seems strained, at best. Even if Marvin sits until the postseason, he still While his defense has been hit or miss, it is also worth noting that he was shouldering an insanely large offensive load this season, as well. It's very hard to be a really good two-way player who is also a high-usage player on offense . . . especially as a freshman. I think zone will help him because he won't have to chase guards around the perimeter anymore.

I am curious to see how Grayson adapts. I'm actually a little skeptical that Grayson has struggled more with Bagley for any X's/O's reason. Javin and Marques spend less time on the perimeter than Marvin and Wendell do, so I don't think it's as simple as saying that our two bigs clog the lane for Grayson. And even in the MSU game when Grayson did his best JJ impression, he hit a lot of threes . . . many of them difficult shots . . . that he can take just as easily with Marvin on the floor or not.

Marvin's absence also corresponded with Grayson's move to primary point guard. It's possible that THIS move has actually been more significant for his jump in performance than the absence of Marvin. His total shots might decrease a little when Marvin comes back, but hopefully his new-found ability to pilot the offense and get points for himself will remain.

[Dukehky]

I'm not worried at all.

Our defensive scheme has changed to the point where he has a very defined role. I know people love Javin, but Javin isn't a better defender than Bagley. Put Bagley down there with Carter and Trent, and he's got an area to cover. He can do that.

Offensively, I just don't see the issue. it's not Kyrie, it's not the point guard. He doesn't have the ball in his hands all the time. We've been playing 2 bigs the entire time. So instead of having Javin or Bolden in, we have Bagley, who is MORE of a stretch 4, or we can put Bagley on the block and let Carter stretch it out.

I don't buy the lack of driving lanes for Duval and Grayson with Bagley and Carter out there either. You don't have to guard Javin or Marques. You can spread it out and let them drive, except you have guys who the other team has to guard on the perimeter.

I know that it's scary to change something up when we're playing so well. The only thing Bagley has to focus on doing a little more than when he last played is making the extra pass or kicking it out of a double team every once and a while.

Duke got a lot better when Brand came back in 1998, when Boozer came back in 2001, and even when Kelly came back in 2013 (even though he didn't play that well after Miami).

We're reintegrating the best player in the country who has missed 4 games. I doubt he misses 5. Let's not get crazy. We're going to beat the absolute hell out of teams with him on the court while playing this kind of D (again, I don't think he hurts us on defense, but if you do, then fine, he's going to more than make up for however much better you think Javin is than him on defense in how much better he is on offense).

Bagley's defensive issues have been on communication. He's a decent rim protector and is actually pretty good as an on ball guy. I'm not worried about putting a 7 foot freak in the zone.

[Nugget]

I don't prefer DeLaurier defensively to Bagley. And I'm not worried about the defense when Bagley comes back. We were a very good team in zone defense with Bagley. We've been a very good team in zone defense without Bagley. The difference is that we've finally committed to playing exclusively zone since Bagley went out, whereas we still trying like all heck to be a man-to-man team prior to Georgia Tech.

I agree with this -- Marvin ought to be able to replicate what Javin is doing in the zone on defense and having Marvin on offense is a massive upgrade.

Javin is certainly giving it is his all, but the other teams don't respect him as an offensive threat and the more minutes we play with both he and Trevon on the floor, the more we handcuff ourselves offensively with two guys on the floor whom the other team can pretty much always help off of.

[907bluedevils]

There shouldn't be any issue with MBIII getting back into the swing of things. Although I do like how Javin's been playing, but I can pretty much guarantee that any important game Duke plays the rest of the year including the tourney that MBIII should be getting much more playing time than Javin, if not all of it. You don't really bench a ACC and national POY candidate. The team is better with him on the court.

[TruBlu]

I agree with those who don’t see a problem with Marvin coming back. He has had multiple games of being able to observe our zone defense to know what’s expected, and I’m sure he is being coached up on that as well.

On offense, he needs to understand when he’s being double teamed, and find the open man (another big on the inside or a slashing Duvall, or an open 3 point shooter on the outside - not Duvall). Again, I’m sure he’s being coached up on that as well.

We need to continue using our bench to give our starters a rest, and to bring fresh energy into the game.

[Troublemaker]

There shouldn't be any issue with MBIII getting back into the swing of things. Although I do like how Javin's been playing, but I can pretty much guarantee that any important game Duke plays the rest of the year including the tourney that MBIII should be getting much more playing time than Javin, if not all of it. You don't really bench a ACC and national POY candidate. The team is better with him on the court.

Literally no one is suggesting that Marvin should be benched. Obviously we all want him to be worked back into the rotation. The discussion is more about (a) what is the right way to go about doing that and (b) what is the level of concern we have about his re-acclimation disrupting how well things are going.

On a Concern-o-Meter that goes from 1 to 10, my concern is a 2 or 3. It could not have possibly been a 5 or higher; as others have written, he's not a ball-dominant guard and might slide back into the rotation fairly seamlessly.

That said, my concern is also not a 0. While it would make sense for Grayson to continue to hunt his shot and stay aggressive even with Marvin back, I want to see him do that first instead of just assuming that he will. It was weird in the first place that Grayson had become so deferential. And, likewise, while it would make sense that Marvin could use his athleticism to be a consistently active and disruptive defender for 30-35 mpg in a zone, I will also wait and see on that.

[OZ]

Well, unfortunately, that's not really going to be possible when Bagley comes back. In order for Grayson to keep playing this current role (taking 15-20 shots a game), Bagley would need to become a secondary option on offense. The key will be in finding the perfect balance between those two. Grayson has to be able to find Bagley in the post, but Bagley can't just continue to be a black hole, either. He needs to try to look for Grayson and help Grayson get some shots, too.

Totally agree; but, I was speaking of more than number of shots. Allen has taken more of a point guard responsibility. He has the keys now. He needs to keep them. As far as Allen's offense, the BOLDEN part of your post works for me.

[CDu]

Considering how we can count the number of zone-first teams around the country on one hand (if we can even get up to 5), I think Coach K and the staff deserve a lot of credit for making the transition. (Not that either of you guys are saying otherwise). College basketball coaches just don't seem to like playing zone (or at least they prefer to be man-first), and I'm sure they have some logical reasons why if we surveyed them.

An aside, but I think you might be underestimating the number of teams going zone. Obviously Syracuse, Louisville, Baylor, and Duke (this year) are primarily zone teams. But Xavier, Michigan, and West Virginia do too. Even Villanova played zone in their championship run. And that is just among the teams that frequently are in the top-25. I think I read somewhere that as of 2013, over 20% of all D1 defensive possessions were some sort of zone, and that number was on the rise.

And it makes sense. The rules changes for freedom of movement are a big part of it. But also the shot clock being shortened to 30 seconds, which makes two zone benefits: more possessions mean more chances to foul, and zones save foul trouble; and zones eat up the already-short shot clock.

[Troublemaker]

An aside, but I think you might be underestimating the number of teams going zone. Obviously Syracuse, Louisville, Baylor, and Duke (this year) are primarily zone teams. But Xavier, Michigan, and West Virginia do too. Even Villanova played zone in their championship run. And that is just among the teams that frequently are in the top-25. I think I read somewhere that as of 2013, over 20% of all D1 defensive possessions were some sort of zone, and that number was on the rise.

And it makes sense. The rules changes for freedom of movement are a big part of it. But also the shot clock being shortened to 30 seconds, which makes two zone benefits: more possessions mean more chances to foul, and zones save foul trouble; and zones eat up the already-short shot clock.

The 20% wouldn't surprise me. That's probably around the percentage Duke was at this season before going zone-first. Most teams have zone as a secondary defense and will play it some. But I'm talking about the number of zone-first teams like what Duke has converted into being, particularly in the power conferences. I personally can't name 5.

Syracuse, Baylor, and Louisville (matchup, but they also play straight man some) are what I have. I think the other teams you mention play some zone but are still primarily man teams. For example, in this WaPo article about Baylor last season, there is this quote: According to Synergy Sports, only two other high-major squads use zone more frequently than the Bears (57 percent of its possessions)

So what Duke is doing is pretty rare. And I commend Coach K and staff for doing it.

[MChambers]

Can't spork you, but this is right on. However, I don't believe the coaching staff just didn't know how much better we are at zone. I think they knew very early on that zone would be very effective with this group. My hunch is that they just really wanted to see if we could get better at M2M over time. Did it cost us a few wins? Very possible. But in the long run, it doesn't matter. The M2M experiment seems to have failed, so now we're playing zone full time, as many of us predicted we would.

I bet we'll see some M2M, perhaps Saturday. K said they are still working on it. Won't be used as much, however.

[MChambers]

It's a really nice problem to have. In fact, it's not a problem.

[Jeffrey]

It's a really nice problem to have. In fact, it's not a problem.

Does that leave us with "It's really nice"? If so, I agree!

[CDu]

The 20% wouldn't surprise me. That's probably around the percentage Duke was at this season before going zone-first. Most teams have zone as a secondary defense and will play it some. But I'm talking about the number of zone-first teams like what Duke has converted into being, particularly in the power conferences. I personally can't name 5.

Syracuse, Baylor, and Louisville (matchup, but they also play straight man some) are what I have. I think the other teams you mention play some zone but are still primarily man teams. For example, in this WaPo article about Baylor last season, there is this quote: According to Synergy Sports, only two other high-major squads use zone more frequently than the Bears (57 percent of its possessions)

So what Duke is doing is pretty rare. And I commend Coach K and staff for doing it.

The 20% and rising was for all of D1, whereas the quote you mentioned was for high-major teams only. The fact that high-major teams don’t play it much (only a handful play it more than 50% of the time) means that somebody below the high-major teams is doing it a lot.

Beilein has long been a zone coach, primarily 1-3-1. He appears to be playing it less often this year with Michigan, but it is a big part of what he likes to do. He is sort of doing the opposite of Coach K right now: playing more man because his players aren’t tuned in to the zone. West Virginia runs a full-court press (by definition a zone) as its primary defense, with a 1-3-1 zone and man-to-man as secondary defenses. It appears that Synergy differentiates between a press and zone, which is probably why WV doesn’t get categorized like Baylor or Syracuse.

You are certainly correct that among the power-6 conferences the zone is rare. So in that sense, what Duke is doing is indeed rare. My point was more that there are surely teams at the mid-major and below that play it fairly regularly in order for D1 to have 20+% of possessions be in zone.

[Ian]

Definitely reduce the number of post ups by Bagley. Let Bagley be the guy waiting for the pass off penetration, and tell him to go chase down offensive rebound putbacks with abandon. Play defense with controlled aggression as we aren't afraid of him getting into foul trouble, and kick it out more when post ups aren't there instead of forcing it up.

[Jeffrey]

... tell him to go chase down offensive rebound putbacks with abandon. Play defense with controlled aggression as we aren't afraid of him getting into foul trouble...

I don't want to see our best player and probably our GOAT freshman in foul trouble. Amazing how many here are discussing a 22/11 freshman who uses the court as a trampoline.

[Troublemaker]

The 20% and rising was for all of D1, whereas the quote you mentioned was for high-major teams only. The fact that high-major teams don’t play it much (only a handful play it more than 50% of the time) means that somebody below the high-major teams is doing it a lot.

Beilein has long been a zone coach, primarily 1-3-1. He appears to be playing it less often this year with Michigan, but it is a big part of what he likes to do. He is sort of doing the opposite of Coach K right now: playing more man because his players aren’t tuned in to the zone. West Virginia runs a full-court press (by definition a zone) as its primary defense, with a 1-3-1 zone and man-to-man as secondary defenses. It appears that Synergy differentiates between a press and zone, which is probably why WV doesn’t get categorized like Baylor or Syracuse.

You are certainly correct that among the power-6 conferences the zone is rare. So in that sense, what Duke is doing is indeed rare. My point was more that there are surely teams at the mid-major and below that play it fairly regularly in order for D1 to have 20+% of possessions be in zone.

The bolded sentences are all I was saying, CDu. It's true that I could've been more specific in my original post, but when I was talking about counting up zone-first teams around the country, I was not expecting folks to know whether Abilene Christian is zone-first or not. It's the teams we watch on TV that interested me.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if zone-first teams were rare even at the mid or low major levels despite the 20% number. The two variables we are missing are (A) how many teams in all D1 play zone as a secondary defense and (B) on average, what percentage of possessions are those teams playing zone? Depending on what A and B are, zone-first teams can be rare or fairly regular, as you put it, to account for the 20%.

[CDu]

The bolded sentences are all I was saying, CDu. It's true that I could've been more specific in my original post, but when I was talking about counting up zone-first teams around the country, I was not expecting folks to know whether Abilene Christian is zone-first or not. It's the teams we watch on TV that interested me.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if zone-first teams were rare even at the mid or low major levels despite the 20% number. The two variables we are missing are (A) how many teams in all D1 play zone as a secondary defense and (B) on average, what percentage of possessions are those teams playing zone? Depending on what A and B are, zone-first teams can be rare or fairly regular, as you put it, to account for the 20%.

I would expect the zone to be more common at lower levels of D1. There, the quality of athletes drops off, so I would expect more teams to find ways to hide guys. Pretty sure that Rice, for example, is a predominantly 2-3 zone team at the mid-major level. The less athletic your bigs are, they more likely you are to be willing to try to hide them with a zone. But, regardless, I fully agree that at the power 6 level it is rare. Teams are using more zone, but few of the 70-80 power 6 programs use it the majority of the time.