This Week in the ACC: 2/19-2/25

[Ian]

The best case scenario for Duke would be NCSU getting the #3 while UNC and Clemson get the 4/5.

That can happen if State win out and UNC only loses at Duke. State's remaining games are home against FSU and Louisville and at GTech. All winnable games. If Syracuse can win at home against UNC then State can lose one of those 3 and still end up 3rd.

[PackMan97]

The best case scenario for Duke would be NCSU getting the #3 while UNC and Clemson get the 4/5.

I'm on board with that plan

I like that State has FSU and Louisville at home, but dang those are going to be tough games. Right now all three teams are fighting for their lives on the bubble. The chance to push someone else down and climb on top of them for bubble positioning is going to bring some intensity to those games. Basically the NCAAT has started early in the ACC.

[ChillinDuke]

Very good points, Chillin'. No doubt the Ball St and Indiana losses while healthy loom large for ND.

With that said, I'm still going to say that a run to the ACC semis gets them in. I'm not saying that *I* would necessarily endorse that decision, but I think the Committee would be okay bumping, say, a Baylor from the field in order to let in a Preseason All American in Colson. If ND makes a run in the ACCT, we're also going to get Bilas, Vitale, and the ESPNers jumping on the bandwagon and making the case every single day that ND is a tournament team when healthy. If I were you, I would not trust the Committee to make the right (from your perspective) decision. The urge to let a likable star player (who's a senior) into the tournament, the constant pro-ND propaganda on ESPN... it might just be too much for the Committee to see it your way.

You may end up being right, and I absolutely agree that, depending on a few things happening, there might be a lot of discussion out there about this specific situation. But even granting that ESPN/Bilas/storylines will be stacked in favor of ND, I still think it's a long shot.

I went back and checked. In the last 7 years since the NCAAT expanded the play-in to 4 games, the only time a non-16-seed play-in had 14 losses was in the initial year (2011). USC was 19-14 as an 11-seed in Dayton. That team had wins over NCAAT seeds #4 Texas, #5 Arizona, #7 UCLA, #7 Washington, and #9 Tennessee. They had 4 sub-100 KenPom losses (end of year rankings), but 3 of those were in their first 8 games and the 4th was away at Oregon State (in conference). No idea if they had an injury in play that year.

This year's Notre Dame team has less sub-100 losses (1; Ball State), but also less NCAAT-caliber wins. Likely only (per Joey Idiot) #4 WSU, #8 FSU, #11 NC State (bubble-ish), and #12 Syracuse (bubble).

So, only one team in the last seven years (68-team NCAAT format) has as many hypothetical losses as ND will have. And that team was probably the last team in (they lost to VCU by 13 in the play-in, by the way). That USC team had better wins than ND, although more bad losses (although discounted by early season). Plus, ND first needs to affirmatively get their best player back. Then ND needs to get at least one, probably two, win(s) that are not Wake or Pitt (or Georgia Tech or Boston College, for that matter). And they probably still have to get lucky with how the bubble shakes out.

I'm sticking by long-shot odds.

- Chillin

[ChillinDuke]

Nevermind. USC's inclusion in 2011 was for one very obvious reason. A reason I totally missed when I was posting above.

After all, someone had to burst Virginia Tech off the bubble. 22-12. KenPom #40. Coached by Sethy.

Amazing!!!

- Chillin

[HokieEngineer]

After all, someone had to burst Virginia Tech off the bubble. 22-12. KenPom #40. Coached by Sethy.

It's even worse than that: Pomeroy had VT at #28 on selection day. It's ranking dropped after a home loss to Wichita St. (the eventual NIT champion).

[JasonEvans]

Va Tech about to go down at home to Lou... color me shocked at that result. Tech inches closer to the bubble (they were comfortably in, I think) and so does Louisville (they were out before this, I think).

[SavDukeGrad]

Va Tech about to go down at home to Lou... color me shocked at that result. Tech inches closer to the bubble (they were comfortably in, I think) and so does Louisville (they were out before this, I think).

And Boston College leading Miami in Miami by double digits in the 2nd half! What's going on today in the ACC?

[ChillinDuke]

Don't look now, but BC may have a path into the NCAAT that doesn't require them winning the ACCT.

- Chillin

[OldPhiKap]

Va Tech inches closer to the bubble (they were comfortably in, I think).

Somewhere, Seth Greenberg senses a disturbance in the Force.

[tbyers11]

And Boston College leading Miami in Miami by double digits in the 2nd half! What's going on today in the ACC?

Lonnie Walker just hit a 3 to put Miami up one with 2.4 seconds left. BC was up 69-55 with 5:51 left.

Meltdown by BC including Bowman fouling out with around a minute left.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

And BC snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.

[DarkstarWahoo]

And BC snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.

It was ever thus.

[devildeac]

Lonnie Walker just hit a 3 to put Miami up one with 2.4 seconds left. BC was up 69-55 with 5:51 left.

Meltdown by BC including Bowman fouling out with around a minute left.

Even Bill James wouldn't have called that lead "safe," even if BC had the ball.

But, I certainly see your point/s.

http://www.lilliechilen.com/billjames/

[ncexnyc]

Lonnie Walker just hit a 3 to put Miami up one with 2.4 seconds left. BC was up 69-55 with 5:51 left.

Meltdown by BC including Bowman fouling out with around a minute left.

Now blowing a 14 point lead with just under six minutes to play might not sound that bad, but when you consider it was a 3 possession game with about 1:50 to go that just goes to show how epic a choke this was. The Canes cut it to a 3 point lead in about 30+ seconds and a major part of this was Lykes totally punking Bowman.

[devildeac]

One team rambling so as to wreck the other.

Technically, wrong thread?

[JasonEvans]

Tech inches closer to the bubble (they were comfortably in, I think) and so does Louisville (they were out before this, I think).

To clarify, VT was a 9-seed coming into today in Bracketmatrix. Lou was one of the first 4 out (#3).

This loss probably moves VT down to a 10, the 6 teams who are #11 seeds are the bubble, IMO. I suspect this could move Louisville into one of those #11 seeds... they certainly gave themselves more of a chance with this win.

-Jason "I think Lou needs to win 2 more games... they play Virginia, @NCSt and then the ACC tourney (they will have a winnable first round game, for sure)" Evans

[Troublemaker]

If I told you that an ACC team would score only 7 points in the 1st half of a game today, would you be able to identify the team and the opponent?

[richardjackson199]

If I told you that an ACC team would score only 7 points in the 1st half of a game today, would you be able to identify the team and the opponent?

Should be easy. Of course I took Pitt, the points, and the Over in our contest!

[DukieInBrasil]

Big time and bigly needed wins for Miami and Loovuhl today, guaranteeing them .500 records in conference, perhaps better. VT is already at 9 ACC wins so they ought to be ok. I suppose if ND wins today and wins out, that they still have NCAA hopes.
Wow, UVA just dismantled Pitt in the 1st half. Pretty sure UVA doesn't need to score again to win the game.

[dukelifer]

If I told you that an ACC team would score only 7 points in the 1st half of a game today, would you be able to identify the team and the opponent?

I saw Duke score 7 points in a half- the same day I saw UNC score 0