This Week in the ACC: 2/19-2/25

[pfrduke]

Some clarity is starting to appear in the race for the double-bye. Virginia will officially lock up the #1 seed and share of the regular season title with 1 more win and they host the second-worst team in the conference on Wednesday. Duke has a two-game lead on the five-spot, with UNC a game and a half clear and Clemson suddenly the most uncomfortable, but still a full game clear of 5th. Then there are 6 other teams at .500 or above, all of which are very much in the mix for an NCAA tournament bid but probably none of which can feel comfortable that they've locked that up.

Monday
[29]Notre Dame(6-8) (-5) hosts [44]Miami (7-7) (7:00, ESPN)

Tuesday
[49]NC State (8-6) (-7) hosts [80]Boston College (6-8) (7:00, ACCNE)

Wednesday
[1]Virginia (13-1) (-19) hosts [124]Georgia Tech (4-10) (7:00, ESPN2)
[45]Syracuse (7-7) (+3) hosts [7]North Carolina (10-5) (7:00, ESPN)
[34]Virginia Tech (8-6) (-1) hosts [16]Clemson (9-5) (7:00, ACCNE)
[3]Duke (10-4) hosts [36]Louisville (8-6) (9:00, ESPN)
[231]Pittsburgh (0-15) hosts [88]Wake Forest (3-12) (9:00, ACCNE)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday
[34]Virginia Tech (8-6) (-3) hosts [36]Louisville (8-6) (1:00, CBS)
[44]Miami (7-7) (-8) hosts [80]Boston College (6-8) (2:00, ACCNE)
[88]Wake Forest (3-12) (+2) hosts [29]Notre Dame (6-8) (3:00, ACCNE)
[16]Clemson (9-5) (-14) hosts [124]Georgia Tech (4-10) (3:00, ACCNE)
[234]Pittsburgh (0-15) (+18) hosts [1]Virginia (13-1) (4:00, ESPNU)
[3]Duke (10-4) (-13) hosts [45]Syracuse (7-7) (6:00, ESPN3)

Sunday
[49]NC State (8-6) (-1) hosts [28]Florida State (8-7) (6:00, ESPNU)

ACC Non-Conference Record: 151-39
ACC v. Power 6: 29-22

[pfrduke]

And here's how it stands up by efficiency margin:

Virginia: +18.2
Duke: +15.5
North Carolina: +9.6
Louisville: +8.1
Clemson: +3.7
Syracuse: +2.2
Florida State: +1.3
Notre Dame: +0.1
Miami: +0.1
Virginia Tech: -1.2
NC State: -2.8
Boston College: -4.5
Wake Forest: -8.3
Georgia Tech: -10.3
Pittsburgh: -29.5

[CDu]

Some really important matchups for the bubble teams this week. In the "probably need a win to stay or get comfortable" category:

Monday: Miami on the road against Notre Dame
Tuesday: NC State hosting BC
Saturday: Miami hosting BC

In the "jockeying for position in the bubble race" category:
Saturday: Va Tech hosts Louisville (seriously, Louisville's remaining schedule is brutal)
Sunday: NC State hosts FSU

In the "looking for a(nother) signature win" category:
Wednesday: Syracuse hosts UNC, Va Tech hosts Clemson, Duke hosts Louisville
Saturday: Duke hosts Syracuse

[PackMan97]

This weeks +/- for the ACC. +1 for a road win, -1 for a home loss. Any mistakes or ommissions are my fault.

Last weekend was huge for the road teams (except poor little Pitt).

TEAM            +/-  CONF    OVERALL			
Virginia        +6  13-1      24-2     @VT, @GT, @WF, @Duke, @Syracuse, @FSU, @Miami (VT)
Duke            +4  10-4      22-5     @Pitt, @UM, @WF, @GT, @Clemson, (UVa)	
North Carolina  +2  10-5      21-7     @ND, @NCSU,@UL (NCSU)	
Clemson         +2   9-5      20-6     @BC, @GT, @Wake, (Duke)
Virginia Tech   +2   8-6      19-8     @WF, @ND, @BC, @UVa, @GT, (FSU, UVa, Miami)
NC State        +2   8-6      18-9     @Pitt, @Cheats, @Syracuse, @WF (UM, Cheats)
Louisville       0   8-6      18-9     @ND, @FSU, @Pitt, (FSU, UL, Cheats)
Florida State    0   8-7      19-8     @VT, @UL, (UL, UVa)
Miami            0   7-7      18-9     @NCSU, @Pitt, @VT, (Duke, Syracuse, UVa)
Syracuse         0   7-7      18-9     @Pitt, @UL, @Miami, (ND, UVA, NCSU)
Notre Dame      -1   6-8      16-11    @Cuse, @BC, (UL, Cheats, VT)
Boston College  -2   6-8      16-11    @Pitt, (Clemson, VT, ND)
Georgia Tech	-3   4-10     11-16    @Pitt, (UVa, Clemson, Duke, VT)
Wake Forest     -5   3-12     10-17    (Duke, UVa, VT, Clemson, NCSU)
Pittsburgh      -7   0-15      8-20    (UM, Duke, GT, Syracuse, NCSU, UL, BC)

A lot of action for the middle of the standings this week. It's time to win or get left home in march for a lot of teams.

[duke2x]

The most important game not involving Duke is UNC @ Syracuse. It has huge implications for ACC Tournament seeding. If Syracuse wins, there's a pretty good chance UNC will not get a double bye. They lose tiebreakers to VT, FSU, and Syracuse in that case. If UNC wins, they could finish 2nd in the ACC by sweeping Duke.

Also, look out for State. It is always a risk to assume State will do anything you predict, but they could finish 12-6 and get the #3 seed overall.

For those who want to play with a website that lets you create unrealistic Pitt seeding scenarios and others: http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

[BandAlum83]

This weeks +/- for the ACC. +1 for a road win, -1 for a home loss. Any mistakes or ommissions are my fault.

Last weekend was huge for the road teams (except poor little Pitt).

TEAM            +/-  CONF    OVERALL			
Virginia        +6  13-1      24-2     @VT, @GT, @WF, @Duke, @Syracuse, @FSU, @Miami (VT)
Duke            +4  10-4      22-5     @Pitt, @UM, @WF, @GT, @Clemson, (UVa)	
North Carolina  +2  10-5      21-7     @ND, @NCSU,@UL (NCSU)	
Clemson         +2   9-5      20-6     @BC, @GT, @Wake, (Duke)
Virginia Tech   +2   8-6      19-8     @WF, @ND, @BC, @UVa, @GT, (FSU, UVa, Miami)
NC State        +2   8-6      18-9     @Pitt, @Cheats, @Syracuse, @WF (UM, Cheats)
Louisville       0   8-6      18-9     @ND, @FSU, @Pitt, (FSU, UL, Cheats)
Florida State    0   8-7      19-8     @VT, @UL, (UL, UVa)
Miami            0   7-7      18-9     @NCSU, @Pitt, @VT, (Duke, Syracuse, UVa)
Syracuse         0   7-7      18-9     @Pitt, @UL, @Miami, (ND, UVA, NCSU)
Notre Dame      -1   6-8      16-11    @Cuse, @BC, (UL, Cheats, VT)
Boston College  -2   6-8      16-11    @Pitt, (Clemson, VT, ND)
Georgia Tech	-3   4-10     11-16    @Pitt, (UVa, Clemson, Duke, VT)
Wake Forest     -5   3-12     10-17    (Duke, UVa, VT, Clemson, NCSU)
Pittsburgh      -7   0-15      8-20    (UM, Duke, GT, Syracuse, NCSU, UL, BC)

A lot of action for the middle of the standings this week. It's time to win or get left home in march for a lot of teams.

Am I reading this correctly? UNC has only played for away games? They have a lot of work left to do, in that case. They could slip out of first round bye territory if they don't perform on the road. Imagine if the last game of the season if we can beat them out of the first round bye!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Am I reading this correctly? UNC has only played for away games? They have a lot of work left to do, in that case. They could slip out of first round bye territory if they don't perform on the road. Imagine if the last game of the season if we can beat them out of the first round bye!

Checking their schedule (ick) that is incorrect. I see seven road games played thus far.

[CDu]

Am I reading this correctly? UNC has only played for away games? They have a lot of work left to do, in that case. They could slip out of first round bye territory if they don't perform on the road. Imagine if the last game of the season if we can beat them out of the first round bye!

No, it says they have won 3 road games and lost one home game. It is just a tally of road wins and home losses for each team.

[PackMan97]

Miami wins at ND. The NCAA chances for the golden domers are fading fast.

[Troublemaker]

Miami wins at ND. The NCAA chances for the golden domers are fading fast.

Not so fast, my friend.

Coach Brey said last night that it's "realistic" that Bonzie Colson could be back in time to play next Wednesday against Pitt (youtube, primed)

Let's say Notre Dame looks good with him back in the final two regular season games, Pitt and @UVA (looking good @UVA might just mean playing them close.)

Then ND makes a run to the semis in the ACCT. I think the committee would think long and hard about letting the Domers in.

[Spanarkel]

Miami wins at ND. The NCAA chances for the golden domers are fading fast.

ND somehow no. 33 in pompom ratings(despite home loss to Ball State(no. 178 at time)/loss to IU in Indy that predated Bonzie/Farrell/DJ Harvey injuries).

[PackMan97]

Not so fast, my friend.

Coach Brey said last night that it's "realistic" that Bonzie Colson could be back in time to play next Wednesday against Pitt (youtube, primed)

Let's say Notre Dame looks good with him back in the final two regular season games, Pitt and @UVA (looking good @UVA might just mean playing them close.)

Then ND makes a run to the semis in the ACCT. I think the committee would think long and hard about letting the Domers in.

Two wins in the ACCT might not be that compelling as that's only a win against a tean seeded 10-15 and a second win against a team seeded 5-7. This double bye just really messes things up. It used to be a bubble team got a shot right away against a quality opponent. Let's say ND finished as the #10, that means they get a win vs #14 Wake Forest and then play against FSU/Miami/State in the second round. Teams around 40-60 in the RPI. Not a bad win, but a win against a bubble team. Not until the semifinal do they get a shot against a top team and the resume building that would provide. 3 games in 3 days, they'd get crushed by Duke or Carolina, I think.

The ACCT is good for bubble teams needing an easy win to pad their total, it's really bad for a bubble team needing a signature win to show the committee they can compete with anyone.

[ncexnyc]

Bonzie was in uniform last night.

[CDu]

Two wins in the ACCT might not be that compelling as that's only a win against a tean seeded 10-15 and a second win against a team seeded 5-7. This double bye just really messes things up. It used to be a bubble team got a shot right away against a quality opponent. Let's say ND finished as the #10, that means they get a win vs #14 Wake Forest and then play against FSU/Miami/State in the second round. Teams around 40-60 in the RPI. Not a bad win, but a win against a bubble team. Not until the semifinal do they get a shot against a top team and the resume building that would provide. 3 games in 3 days, they'd get crushed by Duke or Carolina, I think.

Minor quibble, but it would be the quarterfinal, not semifinal. The 10 seed would first play the 10/15 game on Tuesday, then the 7/"10" game on Wednesday, and then would be in the 2/"7" game in the quarterfinals on Thursday for their third game in 3 days. They'd have to win 5 in 5 days to win the title.

[JasonEvans]

If Virginia gets Bonzie back and beats Pitt, then plays a really close game with Virginia, then wins their first two games in the ACCT (one of which would be over a likely tournament team) and then loses a close game to a top tier ACC team like Virginia, Duke, or UNC, I think the committee would see a team that had shown it was clearly among the top 30 or so in the nation with Bonzie. They'd get in.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

If Virginia gets Bonzie back and beats Pitt, then plays a really close game with Virginia, then wins their first two games in the ACCT (one of which would be over a likely tournament team) and then loses a close game to a top tier ACC team like Virginia, Duke, or UNC, I think the committee would see a team that had shown it was clearly among the top 30 or so in the nation with Bonzie. They'd get in.

If Virginia gets Bonzie, we're screwed...

[devildeac]

If Virginia gets Bonzie back and beats Pitt, then plays a really close game with Virginia, then wins their first two games in the ACCT (one of which would be over a likely tournament team) and then loses a close game to a top tier ACC team like Virginia, Duke, or UNC, I think the committee would see a team that had shown it was clearly among the top 30 or so in the nation with Bonzie. They'd get in.

No fair. They're already leading the ACC so getting a mid-season transfer would be totally out of line. Besides, I thought intra-conference "transfers" were frowned upon highly.

[CDu]

If Virginia gets Bonzie, we're screwed...

Also, in a game between UVa with Colson and UVa, the unguarded Colson might set a scoring and rebounding record.

[PackMan97]

If Virginia gets Bonzie back and beats Pitt, then plays a really close game with Virginia, then wins their first two games in the ACCT (one of which would be over a likely tournament team) and then loses a close game to a top tier ACC team like Virginia, Duke, or UNC, I think the committee would see a team that had shown it was clearly among the top 30 or so in the nation with Bonzie. They'd get in.

12 losses already, they'll likely finish with 14. How many at-large teams get in with 14 losses? Finishing with two games against Pitt and Wake isn't going to help their RPI/Schedule of Strength. I think they need more than a close loss against UVa or the making it to the quarterfinals (thanks for that correction). They need a signature win that says, "We belong and can make a Cinderella run" instead of "We can compete and put up a good game in the round of 32 if we win the first game".

[Troublemaker]

12 losses already, they'll likely finish with 14. How many at-large teams get in with 14 losses?

Due to the injury issues, I don't think they'll get treated like just any regular at-large team. Maybe I'm overestimating Notre Dame's reputation, but I think the Committee will view Notre Dame as a team that was almost a lock to make the tourney had they been healthy. So, unlike other at-large teams that will be judged on resume, Notre Dame will be judged mostly by the eye test. "Are they back to looking like their former selves or close to it?"

I think they need more than a close loss against UVa or the making it to the quarterfinals (thanks for that correction).

Maybe, but if they make it to the ACC semis, which is what I posted upthread, how would you bet? I think they'd be in.

A run to the quarters, and they'll probably have to sweat it. Beat UVA at UVA on Senior Day and they're also in.