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  1. #1

    MBB: Duke vs. Louisville (2/21, 9 p.m., ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

    After the stirring defensive effort against Clemson on Sunday, Duke goes home for 3 of the final 4 games of the regular season. First up is the Louisville Cardinals and their fresh-faced coach David Padgett.

    The Cardinals visit Duke on a slide, having lost 5 of their last 8. They are also about the biggest team Duke will have faced this season since Michigan State or Texas. The starting lineup features 6'11" freshman center Malik Williams, 6'10" junior forward Raymond Spalding, 6'7" junior Deng Adel, 6'6" sophomore forward V.J. King, and 6'2" senior point guard Quentin Snider. That's a center, 3 forwards, and a point guard for those counting at home. Off the bench, they feature 7'0" senior center Anas Mahmoud, and 6'8" freshman forward Jordan Nwora.

    And they are deep. Padgett is playing 10 guys at least 13 minutes per game in conference this season. In addition to the 7 players mentioned above, the Cardinals bring in a trio of guards off the bench in sophomores Ryan McMahon and Dwayne Sutton and freshman Darius Perry. Expect a lot of substitutions.

    With all of those forwards, it's a little surprising that UofL is 4th in conference play in 3P% at 39.0%. On the season, they are shooting at 36.5%. Their starters are just ok at shooting but freshman Nwora and sophomore McMahon are particularly good from beyond the arc at above 40% on the season.

    With all that height and the Louisville defense, it shouldn't be a shock that the Cardinals are 9th in the nation in opponents 2P% at 44.0%. They also block at lot of shots. Their block rate, at 10.3%, is 4th in the nation. So they are big and make it tough to get clean looks at the basket. Weirdly, they are not a good rebounding team. They give up a lot of offensive rebounds in particular and are not great on the offensive boards.

    As an ok offensive team and tall defensive team, I expect a mucky game. Having Bagley III healthy and available again would certainly help at this juncture in the season and to match up with the plethora of Louisville bigs. But Javin DeLaurier and Marques Bolden have been playing well and should help to compliment Wendell Carter, Jr. Speaking of Wendell, he'll have a heft advantage. No one on the opposing Cardinals has an official weight above 215 pounds. He should be able to establish post position at the very least. And Duke's guards should have some advantage running off of screens. But they are going to have to guard against some bigger defenders. It's an interesting matchup. Hopefully, the home irons will be kind and Duke's perimeter shooting will allow them to get some separation from Louisville.

    Let's Go Duke!

  2. #2
    My UofL opinions, take them or leave them:

    1. UofL plays quite a few players, but I would not classify the team as being "deep." A few kids essentially run up and down the court, then go sit down for a bit. Rinse and repeat.

    2. Deng Adel is more than capable of going into business for himself. Adel is UofL's most talented player, but there are times when he will go all out 5 on 1.

    3. Ray Spalding is talented, but there have been numerous times where UofL refuses to give him the ball.

    4. Q. Snider will have moments where he is solid, and just as many moments where he has cement feet and no playmaking ability/instinct. Put Snider in a clear-out with Duval, and he will get eaten alive.

    5. Anas Mahmoud is capable of blocking shots, but he does not have a great deal of "fire in his belly." I was at the UNC game last night, and the kid totally, wholly, and fully quit midway through the game.

    6. Padgett, who I find to be a wonderful guy through and through, has moments where he clearly has no flipping idea what he is doing.

    7. Greg Paulus is heavily involved in decision-making, and is pretty beloved here in Derbytown, but he has been known to tell players to run a play at the beginning of timeout, then drawn up a completely different set in the huddle, and the players return to action, with no idea what to do with themselves.

    8. UofL, despite their physical height, is an awful rebounding team. I have watched them against some pretty inferior talent this season, and there have been countless times where the Cards will simply concede any examples of effort to the opposing team.

    9. I honestly believe UofL is stuck in a gray area where they know that this season is the program's last chance for awhile to go to the tournament (no signed recruits, and a solid local kid that attends the same high school as did Ray Spalding, plus, local top-five recruit Romeo Langford, want nothing to do with them), so they want to go out with a bang, but they also are on the brink of missing the tournament, with a brutal ending stretch, and many players just want it all to be over. Since mid-2014, UofL as an institution, has been one dumpster fire after another, and the fan/alumni base is balkanized to a level of almost constant in-fighting.

    I think that if Duke lets them hang around, UofL may hunger for their biggest win of the season (they have zero eye-catching victories), but on the other hand, if Duke punches them in the mouth, I suspect UofL will tap out.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post

    With all that height and the Louisville defense, it shouldn't be a shock that the Cardinals are 9th in the nation in opponents 2P% at 44.0%. They also block at lot of shots. Their block rate, at 10.3%, is 4th in the nation. So they are big and make it tough to get clean looks at the basket. Weirdly, they are not a good rebounding team. They give up a lot of offensive rebounds in particular and are not great on the offensive boards.
    Is it possible Louisville players are out of position for rebounds due to going for the block? A high block rate while simultaneously yielding offensive rebounds to the opponent does not seem weird to me.
    Bob Green

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC

    Scouting Report

    We face Louisville this Wednesday night, in what should be a nice, though not definitive, test of our defensive improvements. The Cards are a top-50 (ish, depending upon your stats of choice) offense and a top-25 defense. Despite that balance, they haven't really fared well against good teams this year. Their best results this season are from over a month ago: wins over FSU and a depleted Notre Dame team on the road and a home win over Va Tech. They haven't won a game against a tournament-caliber team since that Va Tech win 5 weeks ago, and they only have 2 wins against tourney-caliber teams all season. So while they are a reasonably-highly rated team by efficiency metrics, they haven't really translated that into wins. What they've done best is destroy bad teams and lose close to decent/good teams. They seem to be trending in the wrong direction, and at the wrong time; their remaining schedule is brutal.

    Offensively, the Cardinals have done a really good job shooting the ball in ACC play. They shoot 39% from 3 in conference and 52% from 2. They also draw fouls at a high rate in conference play. They also have done a decent job of not turning the ball over. What they don't do well is rebound, which is a bit surprising given their size/length. They like to play at about the same pace we do, though faster than we have played the past few games.

    Defensively, they play a matchup zone defense. They will try impose their will via blocked shots and turnovers forced, as their length and aggressiveness really come into play here. Again, though, they are a very poor rebounding team on the defensive glass, which would seem to play to one of our strengths. Lots of pressure and traps all over the court, and they really rely on their athleticism and length to make life tough.

    Centers: Anas Mahmoud (7'0", 215lb senior from Egypt) is the man in the middle. Mahmoud has had a bit of a disappointing senior season after showing some real flashes of potential last year. He's more skilled than he looks, but sometimes plays without enough of a conscience. In the open floor, he's somewhat dynamic. But his lack of strength is a real limitation. Mahmoud is a terrific shotblocker, and is very effective at moving without the ball. He's a nice finisher around the rim, but again his lack of strength makes him easy to disrupt unless he has a clear path to the basket. Despite being more of a finesse player, Mahmoud is a terrible free throw shooter. Mahmoud plays about 25 mpg, with no true backup center behind him. The de facto backup is Malik Williams (6'11", 215lb freshman). Williams is a terrific athlete, but has some of the same issues that Mahmoud has (lack of strength). He's an okay rebounder, but not great. Offensively, Williams has very good shooting touch for a big man and can finish above the rim, but again physicality is a limitation.
    Still, he's a talented prospect.

    Forwards: Ray Spalding (6'10", 215lb junior) has been the breakthrough performer this year. Spalding is very athletic, capable of guarding 3-4 spots on the floor. He's a fantastic rebounder on both ends, and really carries the load on the glass for the Cards. He is a menace in the passing lanes from the back line, and also a pretty good shotblocker. Offensively, he's a terrific putback guy who has improved his range this year. Not a great free throw shooter, but he's made strides there as well. Spalding is one of their best players. If Spalding isn't THE best player, Deng Adel (6'7", 200lb junior from Australia). Adel reminds me a little bit of another Deng: our own Luol. He's a very lanky combo forward, with decent shooting touch (35% from 3, 77% from the line) and terrific athleticism. Adel isn't a great ballhandler, but he's not a glaring liability. Not nearly as good as Deng, but that type of player. Behind those two, Jordan Nwora (6'8", 215lb freshman) is the next man up. Nwora is a bit like Jordan Tucker: terrific shooter (44% from 3) but not terribly athletic. Nwora's primary job is as a catch-and-shoot forward, and doesn't like to dribble at all if he can avoid it. Also an okay rebounder given his size. Amusingly, the Cards have a 6'8" former Blue Devil forward Lance Thomas (no relation to our 6'8" former Blue Devil Lance Thomas) on the roster. Thomas played for the Norcross (GA) High School Blue Devils. Coincidentally, he was a teammate of Jordan Goldwire there, so yet another connection. Thomas plays sparingly, and typically only in blowouts.

    Wings: VJ King (6'6", 190lb sophomore) is the primary option on the wing. King is a very good shooter who is having a tough year in an expanded role. He's quite capable of scoring from all 3 levels, with solid ballhandling, ahleticism, and shooting touch. He reminds me a little bit of VJ Beachem from Notre Dame, in that he is a lanky and athletic scorer with good a good 3pt stroke. But his shot has deserted him a bit this year. Beside King is Ryan McMahon (6'0", 170lb sophomore). McMahon is a shooter, plain and simple. 40% 3pt shooter and 91% from the line, but 80% of his shots are 3pt shots. He's not terribly athletic, and he is small and not much of a creator off the dribble. But don't leave him open. Behind King and McMahon is Dwayne Sutton (6'5", 200lb sophomore transfer from UNC-Asheville). Sutton is a terrific athlete and tenacious rebounder from the wing, not unlike Theo Pinson (again, not nearly as good, but that type of player). He's not much of a shooter though. But a terrific finisher around the basket. And oh so pesky.

    Guards: Quentin Snider (6'2", 175lb senior) is the primary playmaker for the Cardinals. Snider is more solid than dynamic, but is a very good shooter. He handles the ball very well, and is pretty efficient with the ball. But he isn't going to break you down off the dribble. But he's very steady, very experienced, and a solid overall player at PG. Behind him is Darius Perry (6'2", 170lb freshman). Perry is sort of the opposite of Snider: he's a terrific athlete with an aggressive game off the dribble, but lacks the polish and shooting touch. Not a bad young player, but still learning. Better against man-to-man defense where he can run the pick and roll and really attack the rim. In the zone, his strengths are greatly mitigated.

  5. #5
    Hoping to see both Carter and Bolden use their significant weight/strength advantage to great effect against a pretty lightweight albeit tall front line. A key question is will the defensive improvement shown in the last game carry over here? Also eager to see if Duval continues to play effective and aggresive defense, using his wingspan to disrupt passing lanes and get some steals. And of course Grayson has been scoring at a high rate per game, may that continue. Very important here is the continued evolution of how Duval and Grayson play together. Duval has the capacity to attack the rim in a fairly controlled yet powerful manner, and Grayson is playing better when he has the ball in his hands a larger percentage of the time.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Grayson and Duval kind of remind me of Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer. You would have expected Nolan to be the point guard as he was quicker and more athletic and better fit the mold of a point, while Scheyer was taller and a better shooter but couldn’t create offense as well. Yet it worked to flip their roles, K trusted Scheyer to make better decisions and playing off the ball allowed Nolan to attack more aggressively.

    Will be interesting to see if we stick with Allen at point moving forward. I like having him bring the ball up and call out the plays and then hand the ball to Duval. But Duval is also excellent in transition, so we don’t want to take away his aggressiveness in pushing the ball when the opportunities are there.
       

  7. #7
    Soooo... We will get to be the first opponents of the "stripped" Cardinals.
       

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty, or give me death!
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Soooo... We will get to be the first opponents of the "stripped" Cardinals.
    Yes! Get out your dollar bills Crazies!

  9. #9
    The Vegas insider consensus spread has us at -12. Bagley is still listed as questionable.
       

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by subzero02 View Post
    The Vegas insider consensus spread has us at -12. Bagley is still listed as questionable.
    -12 sounds high based on the last couple of games (ours and theirs). I see this as a lower scoring game. A win for us. More important is whether Marvin gets some time.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Lar77 View Post
    -12 sounds high based on the last couple of games (ours and theirs). I see this as a lower scoring game. A win for us. More important is whether Marvin gets some time.
    KenPom has the Devils by 12, fwiw...

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Santa Clara, CA
    I think it's good that this game is in Cameron. Given the title loss, the Cards could have had incredible backing and incentive to prove themselves on their home court. That being said, none of the Ville players were around in 2013. Giving them grief about it probably only gives them some motivation to fight back. In an ideal world it would be best to put the hammer down, blow them out and only then waive dollar bills. But I'm sure the Crazies will be doing so at shootaround.

    The initial poster's scouting report is pretty good. Ville's 3PT D is also respectable. Tough game, Duke will have to take it seriously to win. It would be great to see Allen continue his trend, even if Bagley is back. Hopefully the freshman ears have ignored all the sports yak about beating Clemson (great accomplishment - next play).

    9F

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Bad news, my friends. I have a black shirt that I always wear to work the day after a Duke loss. Fortunately I have not had to wear it for a couple weeks. But I’ve fallen behind on laundry and now it’s the only clean shirt I have available, so I was forced to wear it today. If we end up losing tonight, I will take full responsibility.
       

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Bad news, my friends. I have a black shirt that I always wear to work the day after a Duke loss. Fortunately I have not had to wear it for a couple weeks. But I’ve fallen behind on laundry and now it’s the only clean shirt I have available, so I was forced to wear it today. If we end up losing tonight, I will take full responsibility.
    But you're wearing it today so you can't wear it tomorrow (I hope), so we're all good.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Wilmington, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Grayson and Duval kind of remind me of Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer. You would have expected Nolan to be the point guard as he was quicker and more athletic and better fit the mold of a point, while Scheyer was taller and a better shooter but couldn’t create offense as well. Yet it worked to flip their roles, K trusted Scheyer to make better decisions and playing off the ball allowed Nolan to attack more aggressively.

    Will be interesting to see if we stick with Allen at point moving forward. I like having him bring the ball up and call out the plays and then hand the ball to Duval. But Duval is also excellent in transition, so we don’t want to take away his aggressiveness in pushing the ball when the opportunities are there.
    Dude, how can you be that careless? Everybody knows you wear a stinky shirt if you have too. Febreeze keeps superstitions alive.
       

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Everywhere
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    Febreeze keeps superstitions alive.
    I'd be willing to have that on a t-shirt.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    WA State
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Bad news, my friends. I have a black shirt that I always wear to work the day after a Duke loss. Fortunately I have not had to wear it for a couple weeks. But I’ve fallen behind on laundry and now it’s the only clean shirt I have available, so I was forced to wear it today. If we end up losing tonight, I will take full responsibility.
    A sartorial reverse jinx.

    Very nice!

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    The ‘Ville is going to be desperate. Not only are they enduring the fallout from the forfeited title and the distraction of the looming Adidas scanda, they are also firmly on the bubble and need some big wins. This is a talented team that has not played up to expectations after a tumultuous offseason that included the abrupt resignation of Pitino. They’ve got a tough schedule to close out the ACC regular season, but a win at Duke would be HUGE for them. It’s possible they fold under all the pressure, but I expect a tough game. I hope that Duke comes out with intensity and puts this game to rest, early. We don’t want to give these guys the chance to think they might be able to save their season by notching a win in Cameron.
       

  19. #19
    9 hours to gametime and no word on the status of Marvin Bagley III.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by COYS View Post
    The ‘Ville is going to be desperate. Not only are they enduring the fallout from the forfeited title and the distraction of the looming Adidas scanda, they are also firmly on the bubble and need some big wins. This is a talented team that has not played up to expectations after a tumultuous offseason that included the abrupt resignation of Pitino. They’ve got a tough schedule to close out the ACC regular season, but a win at Duke would be HUGE for them. It’s possible they fold under all the pressure, but I expect a tough game. I hope that Duke comes out with intensity and puts this game to rest, early. We don’t want to give these guys the chance to think they might be able to save their season by notching a win in Cameron.
    Thinking about it for a couple days, this one has me uneasy. Adel and Spalding are talented and even Mahmoud has given Duke trouble in the past. They looked very pedestrian against UNC but will definitely play better tonight. Duke SHOULD win, but I don't think it will be easy, or +12 like Vegas, kenpom etc have it.
       

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