Hot Take: Duke's best offensive lineup is without Marvin Bagley

[dragoneye776]

Anyone think it's curious that Grayson Allen's 3 best games (including this one) are without Bagley? That said, I think top Bagley and mediocre Grayson is definitely better than top Grayson and no Bagley.

[MarkD83]

Anyone think it's curious that Grayson Allen's 3 best games (including this one) are without Bagley? That said, I think top Bagley and mediocre Grayson is definitely better than top Grayson and no Bagley.

I'll take option #3 Top Grayson and Top Marvin

[CDu]

I think a combination of last night's approach and our with-Bagley strategy is what we should pursue moving forward.

I really liked the way they used DeLaurier along the baseline. I can imagine the same working well with Bagley as well.

At the same time, I don't want to ignore working with Bagley on the post, and the high-low with Bagley/Carter. But I think having what we did last night with Bagley lurking off-ball could create a nice, versatile set of looks. Hopefully we can work in some more looks when Bagley returns.

[uh_no]

I think a combination of last night's approach and our with-Bagley strategy is what we should pursue moving forward.

I really liked the way they used DeLaurier along the baseline. I can imagine the same working well with Bagley as well.

At the same time, I don't want to ignore working with Bagley on the post, and the high-low with Bagley/Carter. But I think having what we did last night with Bagley lurking off-ball could create a nice, versatile set of looks. Hopefully we can work in some more looks when Bagley returns.

That's exactly it. It's all about versatility. Just because you have megatron on your team doesn't mean you shouldn't also try to have a good running game and should just throw the ball to him every time. Having bagley allows us to do MORE things. Things that we can't do without bagley. As we agree, I'm sure, we need to have a bagley lineup where we can continue to do the things we also did well last night. There's no reason we can't...it's not like bagley can't function like bolden or javin if we need him to...it's just about finding that balance. When we're playing aggressive and shooting well like we did last night, teams should have a tough time defending us. If we do that while also having a top 3 pick? That's what everyone was hoping for this year.

[UrinalCake]

As I said upthread, there are some definite similarities to Okafor in 2015. He sat out a game with a sprained ankle and we rolled against Clemson. Afterwards somebody published The Okafor Theory which suggested that Duke is statistically a better team with Oak off the court. The main reasons for this were that a.) Okafor was a bad defender b.) Okafor was a terrible free throw shooter c.) two pointers are less efficient than three pointers, even when you make a high percentage. Now to be fair, the author's purpose was not to suggest that we should bench Okafor, but that we should reduce his usage rate.

Give the article a read if you have a minute, I think a lot of it applies to Bagley as well. Not quite to the same extent, because Bagley is not as ball-dominant as Okafor was. But my eye test tells me that when Bagley is in the game, most of our offense revolves around dumping the ball into him while others stand around. And honestly I don't think Bagley is best used as strictly a straight up post player, he has many other facets to his game and we should be using him in other ways. I do think that reducing Bagley's usage rate could pay dividends, not just because our offense would be more diverse and harder to defend, but also because other players would feel more involved and therefore be more mentally engaged on both sides of the ball.

[kAzE]

As I said upthread, there are some definite similarities to Okafor in 2015. He sat out a game with a sprained ankle and we rolled against Clemson. Afterwards somebody published The Okafor Theory which suggested that Duke is statistically a better team with Oak off the court. The main reasons for this were that a.) Okafor was a bad defender b.) Okafor was a terrible free throw shooter c.) two pointers are less efficient than three pointers, even when you make a high percentage. Now to be fair, the author's purpose was not to suggest that we should bench Okafor, but that we should reduce his usage rate.

Give the article a read if you have a minute, I think a lot of it applies to Bagley as well. Not quite to the same extent, because Bagley is not as ball-dominant as Okafor was. But my eye test tells me that when Bagley is in the game, most of our offense revolves around dumping the ball into him while others stand around. And honestly I don't think Bagley is best used as strictly a straight up post player, he has many other facets to his game and we should be using him in other ways. I do think that reducing Bagley's usage rate could pay dividends, not just because our offense would be more diverse and harder to defend, but also because other players would feel more involved and therefore be more mentally engaged on both sides of the ball.

I just think the offense didn't evolve enough and we became TOO reliant on Bagley going 1 on 1 in the post. It was great to start out the year, when nobody had film on us, but became increasingly more predictable and easier to defend because of our insistence on feeding Bagley in the post (and his insistence on going left).

We obviously will still want to get Bagley touches in the post, but he needs to be a more willing passer out of the post when help comes or his shot isn't there. He needs to look for Grayson and Gary more on the perimeter, especially since it's become harder for him to rebound his own misses now that everyone knows about his crazy second jump ability (thanks for making sure literally everyone knows, Jay Bilas).

Bagley should still touch the ball as much as possible, but he should probably give up a few shots to other guys. Grayson is a volume scorer, and he needs to get a few shots to get going. That's been the key to his success when Bagley has been out.

Defensively, Bagley is much better in the zone than in M2M, so our commitment to playing zone bodes well for Bagley playing his usual amount of minutes.

[Dukiedevil]

Anyone think it's curious that Grayson Allen's 3 best games (including this one) are without Bagley? That said, I think top Bagley and mediocre Grayson is definitely better than top Grayson and no Bagley.

We are suffering from a recency bias if we think that Grayson and Bagley can't play well together. They both played great together through Florida State. The recent improvements have been a combination of Grayson breaking out of a mini-slump and him going back to being the primary ball-handler after a multi-game experiment having Duval as the lead guard. It looks to me that the coaches now think Duval may not develop into the lead guard that would have been helpful come tournament time and are now leaving it in Grayson's capable hands. I look forward to seeing an increase in the devastating Grayson-Bagley pick-n-roll from here on out.

[jv001]

I just think the offense didn't evolve enough and we became TOO reliant on Bagley going 1 on 1 in the post. It was great to start out the year, when nobody had film on us, but became increasingly more predictable and easier to defend because of our insistence on feeding Bagley in the post (and his insistence on going left).

We obviously will still want to get Bagley touches in the post, but he needs to be a more willing passer out of the post when help comes or his shot isn't there. He needs to look for Grayson and Gary more on the perimeter, especially since it's become harder for him to rebound his own misses now that everyone knows about his crazy second jump ability (thanks for making sure literally everyone knows, Jay Bilas).

Bagley should still touch the ball as much as possible, but he should probably give up a few shots to other guys. Grayson is a volume scorer, and he needs to get a few shots to get going. That's been the key to his success when Bagley has been out.

Defensively, Bagley is much better in the zone than in M2M, so our commitment to playing zone bodes well for Bagley playing his usual amount of minutes.

Both you and UC make some very good points regarding MBIII. He is a great talent but he does have some room for improvement. As mentioned he hardly ever uses his right hand and mostly drives to his left. Can you imagine how good he can be once he learns to use his right hand. The failure to go right is one reason the offense slows down when he has the ball. Lot's of times we get caught forcing shots because the shot clock is running down. Duval dribbles the ball too much and the same thing happens, but that's for another thread. I'm sure Coach K has noticed the same thing and will make the necessary adjustments once MBIII returns to the lineup. It can't be too soon for this Duke fan because we're a better team when Bagley and Grayson are on the floor. GoDuke!

[Reddevil]

I have been wondering about this after the past two games also. Duke has used the 1 in, 4 out approach with great success for quite a while. It makes a traditional big man have to cover a quicker guard and come out of the paint. Unc uses the multiple big man approach within a system that generally understands the mismatches on both ends and exploits them to their benefit, and it works for them more often than not. K uses a motion offense that works better without the lane being clogged. All that said, wouldn't it be useful to employ Bagley as a wing like Grant Hill, Winslow, Ingram, Tatum and many others? In other words, forget that he is 6'11''? He can still crash the boards and attack the rim, but would help spread the court. We get our motion offense back (no more hero watching), Bagley still gets his, Grayson and everyone else are more free to improvise, drive and shoot, and K is back to coaching the team in a way that has been very successful.

I am happy to hear that they are going to be primarily a zone team now. Playing a switching M2M with backside help was great before the OAD era because it takes more than a year to teach/learn the intricacies. This bunch strangely rebounds quite well while playing zone too, so they've got that going for them...which is nice.

[CDu]

We are suffering from a recency bias if we think that Grayson and Bagley can't play well together. They both played great together through Florida State. The recent improvements have been a combination of Grayson breaking out of a mini-slump and him going back to being the primary ball-handler after a multi-game experiment having Duval as the lead guard. It looks to me that the coaches now think Duval may not develop into the lead guard that would have been helpful come tournament time and are now leaving it in Grayson's capable hands. I look forward to seeing an increase in the devastating Grayson-Bagley pick-n-roll from here on out.

In the three games that Bagley played 10 minutes or sat out, here are Allen's stats:
28.3 ppg, 49.0 FG%, 47.2 3pt%, 1.67 pps, 65.7 eFG%, 72.1 TS%

In the five games against major conference opponents through the FSU game that Bagley played substantial minutes (Texas, UF, Indiana, BC, FSU), here are Allen's stats:
16.4 ppg, 39.2 FG%, 35.1 3pt%, 1.11 pps, 48.0 eFG%, 50.9 TS%

Those second set of numbers are fine, though not great. And of course that excludes the 10 most recent games in which Allen had really struggled to score. And no, that's not due to a multi-game experiment with Duval as the lead guard; Duval had been the lead guard all season until VERY recently. So I think we can comfortably say that Allen has played MUCH better without Bagley than with Bagley.

Is it possible that it is just a fluke. But I think it is absolutely reasonable to consider that the presence of Bagley (and the team's focus on running the offense through Bagley) has had an effect on Allen's offense. I certainly don't think we are better off without Bagley (on either end of the floor). And the team's long-term success this year will rely heavily on being able to utilize both fairly effectively. To date, we haven't really been able to do that with any consistency.

[jv001]

In the three games that Bagley played 10 minutes or sat out, here are Allen's stats:
28.3 ppg, 49.0 FG%, 47.2 3pt%, 1.67 pps, 65.7 eFG%, 72.1 TS%

In the five games against major conference opponents through the FSU game that Bagley played substantial minutes (Texas, UF, Indiana, BC, FSU), here are Allen's stats:
16.4 ppg, 39.2 FG%, 35.1 3pt%, 1.11 pps, 48.0 eFG%, 50.9 TS%

Those second set of numbers are fine, though not great. And of course that excludes the 10 most recent games in which Allen had really struggled to score. And no, that's not due to a multi-game experiment with Duval as the lead guard; Duval had been the lead guard all season until VERY recently. So I think we can comfortably say that Allen has played MUCH better without Bagley than with Bagley.

Is it possible that it is just a fluke. But I think it is absolutely reasonable to consider that the presence of Bagley (and the team's focus on running the offense through Bagley) has had an effect on Allen's offense. I certainly don't think we are better off without Bagley (on either end of the floor). And the team's long-term success this year will rely heavily on being able to utilize both fairly effectively. To date, we haven't really been able to do that with any consistency.

The stats you posted show that Grayson has performed better when MBIII is not on the court at the same time Grayson is. I know it's a small sample size but the numbers don't lie.

Since most of us know that to be the best team Duke can be in March, both need to be on the court. Your last paragraph in my opinion, puts it on the coaching staff to make sure they are used together effectively. Coach K has no problem making changes that helps the team get better. Witnessed in more zone the last few years. I don't see how running the offense strictly through Marvin can be the best way to utilize the teams strengths. I look for a few more wrinkles from our HOF Coach. GoDuke!

[elvis14]

I just think the offense didn't evolve enough and we became TOO reliant on Bagley going 1 on 1 in the post. It was great to start out the year, when nobody had film on us, but became increasingly more predictable and easier to defend because of our insistence on feeding Bagley in the post (and his insistence on going left).

We obviously will still want to get Bagley touches in the post, but he needs to be a more willing passer out of the post when help comes or his shot isn't there. He needs to look for Grayson and Gary more on the perimeter, especially since it's become harder for him to rebound his own misses now that everyone knows about his crazy second jump ability (thanks for making sure literally everyone knows, Jay Bilas).

Bagley should still touch the ball as much as possible, but he should probably give up a few shots to other guys. Grayson is a volume scorer, and he needs to get a few shots to get going. That's been the key to his success when Bagley has been out.

Defensively, Bagley is much better in the zone than in M2M, so our commitment to playing zone bodes well for Bagley playing his usual amount of minutes.

I hate to say it so plainly but you guys do realize that Bagley is pretty much a black hole on offense, right? The ball goes to him and he tries to score whether he's on the block, at the FT line, at the 3point line, etc. He's so good that it hasn't mattered very much. Teams have learned how to slow him down (be physical and make him go right), however. I think our offense will really blossom if he's a little more selective with his shots. Our ball movement the last couple of games has been so good. Combine great ball movement WITH Marvin and our offense which is already fantastic just gets ridiculously good. Our defense is likely to be inconsistent enough to where there are going to be some games where we have to be ridiculously good on offense to win (which is fine by me as long as we win).

[Kedsy]

All that said, wouldn't it be useful to employ Bagley as a wing like Grant Hill, Winslow, Ingram, Tatum and many others?

The problem is Marvin is soooooo much more efficient inside the paint than outside it. Sure, he can drive into the paint from outside, but if putting him on the wing means he takes more jumpers (and it probably does), then I'm not for it.

Having him lurk on the baseline occasionally (like Javin last night) would seem to be a more palatable alternative.

[Acymetric]

The problem is Marvin is soooooo much more efficient inside the paint than outside it. Sure, he can drive into the paint from outside, but if putting him on the wing means he takes more jumpers (and it probably does), then I'm not for it.

Having him lurk on the baseline occasionally (like Javin last night) would seem to be a more palatable alternative.

Winslow wasn't exactly an offensive juggernaut from outside either. I think the increase in efficiency across the board would make up for the (slight) drop in efficiency from Bagley. I don't take it to mean play Bagley exclusively at the wing, but that he should spend some time there, and adds an additional facet to our offense that teams have to consider when setting up the defense (we are UNBELIEVABLY predictable on offense when Bagley is in, we're just so good offensively that we can overcome being predictable most of the time).

[Kedsy]

Winslow wasn't exactly an offensive juggernaut from outside either. I think the increase in efficiency across the board would make up for the (slight) drop in efficiency from Bagley. I don't take it to mean play Bagley exclusively at the wing, but that he should spend some time there, and adds an additional facet to our offense that teams have to consider when setting up the defense (we are UNBELIEVABLY predictable on offense when Bagley is in, we're just so good offensively that we can overcome being predictable most of the time).

It wouldn't be a (slight) drop in efficiency. It would be a very large drop. Marvin takes 52.9% of his shots at the rim and makes 78% of them. He takes 14.7% of his shots from three and makes 35.4%. Justise took 58.8% of his shots from three and made 39.5% of them. He only took 21.2% of his shots at the rim (and made 66.7%).

[UrinalCake]

If we’re just looking at raw numbers, it would make more sense to play Carter on the wing in a sort of “Kevin Love when paired with LeBron” role, as he makes half his threes. But obviously nobody would ever suggest doing that.

[SkyBrickey]

Similar to the Okafor Theory article that came out in 2015. The problem is not Bagley, the problem is building our whole offense around trying to post him up. Our 2015 team got better when we shared the ball and ran a more diverse offense.

Earlier this season we were moving the ball well and assisting in a high percentage of our made shots. That’s has totally gone away lately, in favor of attempting to just dump it in the post (which also causes a ton of turnovers).

Couldn't agree more with this. The ball movement has been better the past 2 games without Bagley. Hopefully the coaching staff and Bagley recognize this and he looks to pass more actively. Carter does a great job of passing and setting up teammates, and not forcing shots.

Here's another way to think about it. Would you rather have an open 3 from Trent, Grayson or a driving guarded shot by Bagley? Both are good options but give me the open 3.

[dragoneye776]

If we’re just looking at raw numbers, it would make more sense to play Carter on the wing in a sort of “Kevin Love when paired with LeBron” role, as he makes half his threes. But obviously nobody would ever suggest doing that.

I'd like to give that idea some thought, especially only on offense. A lot of people compare Wendell with Al Horford, and while Al mostly plays center for the Celtics, he occasionally shifts to a stretch 4 (letting Aaron Baynes play true Center). If Bagley can get better at setting screens, I don't see why not?