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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    It is going to take 40 focused minutes to beat the teams on the schedule during this phase. Virginia Tech, @Clemson, Louisville, Syracuse, @Virginia Tech and North Carolina are six games we are capable of winning or losing. To win, the team must play a complete game.

    I really hope the coaching staff is emphasizing finishing the 1st half strong and starting the 2nd half strong. We've consistently struggled there.
    Since Bob so nicely listed the 6 games left in the regular season what are our realistic assessments of how the team will finish?

    Duke is now 20-5 with 2 inexplicable losses on the road, 2 very disappointing loses on the road and one toss-up loss at home. The are still very talented but they are only getting marginally better as a team while other teams are closing the talent gap with better team play. So my guess is no more home losses but losses at Clemson and at VT to go 4-2 and finish 12-6 overall. This gets them in the top 4 in the ACC and a bye into the quarters. Looking past that I hope they make it to the ACC finals and the Sweet 16. Their runs may well end at these points because they still play as if they are young and no one has taken on the refuse to lose mentality that they had in the PK80 tournament.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Ian View Post
    It's hard to get turnovers when teams don't use the pass against us to generate offense, they just run the P'nR to death against us because they know we can't guard it.
    THIS ^^^^^ - and guarding that is not who this team is, nor can they become that team. They can however become a very respectable zone team, including the trap out of the zone, with their length and athleticism. Respectable D will be good enough for a deep deep run with this fire power on O.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Ian View Post
    It's hard to get turnovers when teams don't use the pass against us to generate offense, they just run the P'nR to death against us because they know we can't guard it.
    Serious question: when's the last time you thought Duke could guard the PnR? Because here's the last 10 years of Duke defensive turnover percentage:

    TO%
    -----
    2009: 23.5%
    2010: 21.4%
    2011: 21.0%
    2012: 18.5%
    2013: 20.4%
    2014: 18.5%
    2015: 18.5%
    2016: 17.2%
    2017: 17.2%
    2018: 16.3%

    Clearly there's a trend here, but just as clearly there's something different about this season besides our inability to defend the pick-and-roll. Because it's been years since we were good at that, and this season's TO% is Duke's worst since the stat was calculable.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Four games left in the regular season with three of them at home. We have a good opportunity to finish strong and secure the #2 seed in the ACC Tournament. One game at a time starting with Louisville on Wednesday.

    2/21 - Louisville
    2/24 - Syracuse
    2/26 - @ Virginia Tech
    3/2 - North Carolina
    Bob Green

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Serious question: when's the last time you thought Duke could guard the PnR? Because here's the last 10 years of Duke defensive turnover percentage:

    TO%
    -----
    2009: 23.5%
    2010: 21.4%
    2011: 21.0%
    2012: 18.5%
    2013: 20.4%
    2014: 18.5%
    2015: 18.5%
    2016: 17.2%
    2017: 17.2%
    2018: 16.3%

    Clearly there's a trend here, but just as clearly there's something different about this season besides our inability to defend the pick-and-roll. Because it's been years since we were good at that, and this season's TO% is Duke's worst since the stat was calculable.
    Seems like we did OK today against Clemson. 13 turnovers in what appear to be 50 possessions, or 26 percent. Is that what you got?
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Seems like we did OK today against Clemson. 13 turnovers in what appear to be 50 possessions, or 26 percent. Is that what you got?
    According to kenpom, the game had 66 possessions, so we forced turnovers on 20% of them. Still pretty good.

    Hard to say what it would've been if Clemson's point guard Shelton Mitchell had played, though.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Hard to say what it would've been if Clemson's point guard Shelton Mitchell had played, though.

    True - and on the flip side, two players who normally do not play carried Clemson's scoring for most of the first half - and those minutes wouldn't have been there.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    According to kenpom, the game had 66 possessions, so we forced turnovers on 20% of them. Still pretty good.

    Hard to say what it would've been if Clemson's point guard Shelton Mitchell had played, though.
    According to SCCACC Hoops, Clemson had an 18.9% TO%.

    Duke's last 2 games:

    @ GA Tech: 12.5%
    Against VA Tech: 17.4%

    I like that it is improving. I am not sure it is because Duke is suddenly forcing turnovers.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Seems like we did OK today against Clemson. 13 turnovers in what appear to be 50 possessions, or 26 percent. Is that what you got?
    I had 67.7 possessions (19.7% TO%) but still pretty good. Obviously Clemson's PG being out was a factor, but we also played a three-quarters court press for a healthy percentage of the game and got several TOs on Clemson inbounds plays. If we defend every game like we did today, our TO problem may be much less of a deal. But personally, I'd like to see us replicate this performance a couple times before I exhale.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Bowie, Maryland
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    According to SCCACC Hoops, Clemson had an 18.9% TO%.

    Duke's last 2 games:

    @ GA Tech: 12.5%
    Against VA Tech: 17.4%

    I like that it is improving. I am not sure it is because Duke is suddenly forcing turnovers.
    Possible that we are getting better at zone defense. The more you stick to one main defense the more you can refine it in practice. They looked much more comfortable yesterday than compared to the previous two games.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedevil114 View Post
    Possible that we are getting better at zone defense. The more you stick to one main defense the more you can refine it in practice.
    Unless that defense is man to man. Apparently.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Unless that defense is man to man. Apparently.
    Man to man D requires a "particular set of skills" - skills this team's players are not really possessed of. You have to have at least 3 guys who can stay in front of almost any dribbler. Our starting 5 has maybe 1, and he's not that passionate about this part of the game.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    Man to man D requires a "particular set of skills" - skills this team's players are not really possessed of. You have to have at least 3 guys who can stay in front of almost any dribbler. Our starting 5 has maybe 1, and he's not that passionate about this part of the game.
    I was just being sarcastic. I agree that this team is playing its best in zone.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I was just being sarcastic. I agree that this team is playing its best in zone.
    Sorry, not enough caffeine in me yet....

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    That road win at Clemson was just what the team needed. Without Bagley, they beat a solid NCAA tournament team. They withstood a 10-0 run that tied the game late. They played solid defense throughout, which was even pretty exceptional at times. The bench played some pretty good minutes.

    That was the sort of win a team should be pulling off late in the season. These guys would have lost this game a couple of weeks ago. The zone defense seems like a settled thing right. I even like the 3/4 court press and the slower tempo. They can run out on live ball turnovers, but are settling into a more half court game. There is plent of time to perfect these things the next three weeks and peak in March/April.

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