The "What's Up With Grayson?" Thread

[ArtVandelay]

I've seen a lot of sturm and drang in the post-game threads about Grayson's prolonged shooting slump. While his 3-point shooting is a concern (particularly because it's very important to this offense), I feel like there is something deeper that is off about Grayson's game. To me, he does not seem like the same player he was as a sophomore. My purely anecdotal take based on my best recollection is that Grayson does several things as well (hustle plays) or better (running offense and creating looks for others) than he used to, but he seems like a less effective scorer now than as a sophomore and certainly less aggressive. On the podcast, they drew a comparison to Kyle Singler's senior season. I see the parallel but don't agree - Singler was a first-team All-ACC his senior year. Does anyone think Grayson is heading toward that this year? Is there a better historical comp for a Duke player who seemed to regress from their sophomore to senior years? It's unusual as far as I can recall. I generally think of 4-year guys as more often having a "leap" season their senior year (C-Well, Duhon, Nolan all come to mind). What's going on with Grayson seems strange.

Has anyone on the boards gone back and looked at game film from the 2015-2016 season to see how Grayson then compares to 2018 Grayson on film in terms of quickness, explosiveness, leaping, etc.? Is it possible the physical toll of his style of play has worn his body down over the years? If so, perhaps that explains it.

If it's not a physical limitation, though, then there's something else going. What could it be? Because I didn't want to trust my memory and lying eyes, I looked up his baseline shooting stats in 2015-2016 and this season to see if anything jumped out (last year's stats were, not surprisingly, worse across the board, so I'm not including them here). Those with better access to and ability to look up advanced stats can definitely improve this analysis, but at least it's a start. Below are his total FGs made and attempted per game, followed by 2-pointers, 3-pointers, and free throws.

2015-2016

Total FG/game: 6.6/14.3 (46.6%)
2P FG/game: 4.1/8.3 (50%)
3P FG/game: 2.5/6 (41.7%)
FT/game: 5.7/7 (83.7%)

2017-2018

Total FG/game: 4.7/11 (43.1%)
2P FG/game: 2.3/4.7 (49.5%)
3P FG/game: 2.4/6.3 (38.2%)
FT/game: 2.6/3.1 (83.3%)

These numbers definitely jive with the eye test insofar as Grayson is shooting about the same number of threes as he did two years ago (he's just making them at a slightly lower clip). What's really different is that he is shooting far fewer twos and FTs per game. As a sophomore, he shot over 8 two's and 7 FTs per game. Now those numbers are 4-5 twos per game and just 3 FTs. This seems to confirm that Grayson is driving the ball far less than he did as a sophomore, which is how he did a lot of his damage. You just don't see the "drive at the hoop like a Tazmanian devil" version of Grayson anymore. I, for one, kinda miss that Grayson.

Now, a few possible explanations:
1) His body doesn't do what it used to for whatever reason, perhaps long-term wear and tear on his body (see above).
2) This year's team doesn't need him to be the alpha dog, so he's deferring more on purpose.
3) The presence of Carter and Bagley inside has "clogged up the middle" (as they say) that has made it more difficult for him to get driving lanes.
4) Grayson knows he won't get the benefit of the doubt on foul calls anymore due to his track record (whereas he used to be a master of drawing fouls). (This seems dubious and perhaps a bit too conspiratorial for me, but it's not implausible)
5) Teams have seen/scouted him so much now that they are more prepared for his game than they were two years ago (seems doubtful since a lot of them aren't the same players, although maybe the ACC coaching staffs have figured out how to stop him)
6) Mentally he is not the same guy he used to be, particularly after the tripping incidents. (Not sure I buy this, since you still see flashes of that fiery guy we all know and love, like when he straight-up flung Pfluger off when he was trying to help Grayson up after Pfluger hit him with that inadvertent elbow)
7) It's an intentional shift in his style of play in an effort to either prevent injury or to showcase other aspects of his game that might translate better to the NBA level.

I'm guessing it could be some combination of all of these, but I am interested to see what others think. I think the last explanation is potentially the most interesting. Frankly, I thought sophomore Grayson Allen was in for a rude awakening at some point because I didn't think his freewheeling, ultra-aggressive style would translate well at the NBA level. But then he surprised us by returning to school and has since been a more restrained, but less effective player. I get the sense he is struggling to figure out how he can best be effective without hurtling toward the bucket to try to dunk the ball on every play and hasn't quite figured it out. Again, this is just speculation on my part, but I feel like he may have course-corrected too much, resulting in a passive player that doesn't seem like he quite knows what he wants to do sometimes.

While Grayson hasn't always been the easiest Duke player to root for, he's really become a fan favorite due to the extreme and unwarranted media backlash against him and his unquestioned commitment to the program. I think everyone (at least I do!) wants to see Grayson finish strong, so I'm hoping whatever the solution to his woes is, it's something he can find in the next 6 weeks or so.

I'm curious to see whether others have had similar thoughts or have alternative theories on the "what's up with Grayson?" question.

[CDu]

I think it is a combination of items # 2, 3, 4*, 5, and 7* from your list, with a heavy dose of #3. I put an asterisk on #4, in that I don't think it is conspiracy theory related. I think 2015-16 was the culmination of a long stretch of "freedom of movement" rules changes that resulted in officials calling A LOT of defensive fouls on drives. That played perfectly into Allen's bull-rush style, and refs rewarded him handsomely. The refs have dialed it back a bit in the last two years, perhaps realizing that they were a bit too trigger-happy in favor of the offense in 2015-16. As for the asterisk on 7, I think he's realizing the abuse that he was taking from all the drives and the reduction in calls he got last year, so he has cut back some on that. I think he's also tried to expand his game, and that attack dog driving mentality may have lessened a bit as a result.

But I think the biggest single factor is that the lane is way more crowded this year, which limits his opportunities. For a guy who isn't the most nuanced of ballhandlers, those daring drives to the hoop are now into a mass of bodies in the paint. It's just different when Duke had 5 guys all on the perimeter (with Plumlee dragging his man outside to set screens) than when there are 3 defenders in the paint (2 bigs and the guard who doesn't have to stay close to Duval).

I do think also teams are scouting him better, and are better prepared for his bull-rush driving style. And as a result, those angles aren't as readily available.

[kAzE]

#3 plus the fact that Duval's defender can just camp in the lane. If Grayson isn't hitting his 3s, he can't rely on getting to the rim with so much congestion in the paint, and his mid range game is a far cry from Luke Kennard's.

[Matches]

It seemed to me that Allen's scoring slump started around the time Carter became more effective at staying out of foul trouble, and thus was on the court more. This lends credence IMO to the idea that Grayson is struggling with a clogged lane.

That isn't the whole issue though. Trent is on the same court with the same clogged lane and seems to have no trouble finding his shot. Allen has become noticeably less aggressive in looking for his shot. Honestly it may just be a case of five guys who are scorers and only one ball.

[Ian]

Refs don't call the fouls against him as much as they did. Also his teammates don't look for him. When was a last time you remember either Duval or Trent drove the lane and kicked it out to a wide open Grayson at the 3 point line, or Bagley or Carter grab and offensive rebound and kick it out to Grayson for a wide open 3. He used to get a lot of those the last two years.

I think Duval is mainly taught to looks for the bigs inside, Trent drives mostly to score himself, and the bigs try to score when ever they get the ball inside and rarely kicks out.

[thedukelamere]

Put me down for 3, 4*, 5 and 7. It also appears, to me at least, that he has a self-imposed limit on himself; if he misses his first x number of shots, he doesn't shoot himself straight, electing to chalk it up to his stroke being off and focusing more on his role as a distributor and defender.

3 is the most concerning to me; we have a smart team, the GOAT running the show, and yet we haven't been able to solve problem 3 consistently. Any team in the country would be giddy to have the problem of spacing GA, MB3 and WCJr properly, and I remain confident that K is treating this season like a grandmaster in chess... Come tourney time, the sets we run in the halfcourt will be fluid and crisp, and our opponents will wilt under the onslaught

I think the bull rush is going to continue to be important to our endgame; we need GA at the charity stripe more than we have before. Plus we have 3 bigs that can jump out of the gym (Jack White is the only one that can stop them), so lets figure out our angles/positioning and get Lob City going.

[MrPoon]

Thank you for starting this thread, I’ve thought it warranted its own discussion because it keeps showing up between the lines of the last few week’s games.
I remain baffled and I’ll take all of your explanations. He seems more passive. The driving lanes can be part of it but it was interesting a week ago or so that K discussed not running plays for GA. I think he said the plays are there GA needs to find them. That doesn’t sound like a coach who thinks it s the lane.
Earlier in the season K talked about GA as a shooter who needs to protect his body. “He’s a great shooter, not a good shooter” (my version). That worked when he was making shots, now he’s not even taking them.
Frankly, we keep looking for Soph GA, I would take Jr GA for stretches! He is making plays but he was always the 50/50 winning player. This year is no different. Maybe he is being more vocal but he shows up as vocal when we are doing well, I haven’t seen as much in difficult stretches. Not to say it isn’t there, I just don’t know. This to me will decide the narrative of the season. Good, now, Great with GA playing well.

Those smarter than me, are we seeing the team use him differently as the season has progress? (A season long shot chart would be interesting). Is he more effective scoring when he is playing PG? Early it was Duval’s assists that he credited as helping but maybe something has changed there.

[elvis14]

Thanks for starting this thread. I've almost been dreading it as I hoped Grayson would get it going before the thread was created. One thing I will say is that unlike OP, I've always found Grayson to be the easiest player to root for. I want him to finish strong so badly, both for him and for the team. There's some good discussion on here about what's up. I'll say one thing, although I agree that having 2 bigs (as opposed 1 real big and 1 'stretch 4') might have and effect on his taking the ball to the hole, I've seen GA not even try to attack and pass up shots and opportunities that were there and it's worrisome. As I've said in other threads, I want my attack dog back.

[Devilwin]

There are those that are born leaders, those that become leaders, and those who just cannot lead. Maybe Grayson is not a leader, and trying to be is affecting his game.
He certainly has the great basketball skills, but I believe he may be in over his head and is trying too hard. After all, everyone around him is a rookie, and maybe trying to meld the team together is throwing him off? Just speculative on my part, you understand.

[nmduke2001]

There are a lot of reason, of which you have identified many, but I really think a large contributing factor is that Grayson has a hand injury. I've been watching him away from the ball for some time now. He often holds his right hand and flexes the fingers. Maybe he's just toughing it out.

[Fish80]

There are a lot of reason, of which you have identified many, but I really think a large contributing factor is that Grayson has a hand injury. I've been watching him away from the ball for some time now. He often holds his right hand and flexes the fingers. Maybe he's just toughing it out.

I have no inside information, but I have been wondering about his hand and wrist for a while now.

[weezie]

...his teammates don't look for him. When was a last time you remember either Duval or Trent drove the lane and kicked it out to a wide open Grayson at the 3 point line, or Bagley or Carter grab and offensive rebound and kick it out to Grayson for a wide open 3...

Bingo.

[Skydog]

Apparently I'm in the minority but I don't see how anyone can leave confidence issues affecting Grayson's play out of the picture. I've said this before but I'm repeating myself because I don't see how this can be left out of a discussion of his performances. I think the confidence issue is as big or bigger than the other (completely valid) issues pointed out. I think this for a few reasons, randomly listed below. Some of them are subtle to notice and many won't agree but here goes.

1. When he "is on" Grayson actually has a quick release and can score with a defender in his face. He was absolutely Curry-esque (better, JJ-esque) against Mich St. His 3's were mostly well defended. The difference was that when he was coming off screens he seemed to be thinking "shoot" before the ball even got to him. When he like that he only needs a sliver of space and time to get his shot off. Many of his shots in that game were the "instant catch, turn and shoot in the same motion" variety which are almost un-defendable (?). In his interview after the game he specifically mentioned his confidence was high after his first couple of shots fell. All players say that but he kind of emphasized it I thought. And that wasn't the only game where he showed JJ'esque abilities to get his shot even against tight defenses. He did it often in his stellar sophomore season.

2. There have been several games where Grayson is clearly hesitant to shoot even when open and often appears to be second-guessing himself. Not only is he not taking many shots in some of these crucial games but he is also missing shots he normally makes. But in these very same games there were a few occasions when he was forced to put up a difficult shot (usually receiving the ball at the end of the shot clock) - in those he seemed to pull off a high proportion of beautiful "nothing but net" 3 pointers. It seems like when the decision whether to shoot or not is taken out of his hands (or more precisely, his head) his instincts take over and muscle memory handles the rest. This isn't a perfect example but even against St Johns his best shot (well, only good shot) was mostly no-decision, have to shoot situation. We were down 4, about 35 seconds left and he is the first down the court with the ball in his hands at the 3 pt line. There were no passing options, the only thing to do was shoot the damn ball. He does and puts up a beautiful 3, his first make for the game. Most players when shooting a forced shot tend to miss badly, but this season (in his weaker games) Grayson seems to shoot even better when doesn't get a chance to think about it.

3. There is a difference between running off screens and running hard off screens. When I watch Allen's poor games these seasons he's going through the motions but there doesn't seem to be much intensity to it. He runs around but he isn't cutting hard and he isn't demanding the ball. And in pressure situations where we really needed someone to step up he's usually deferred, not what I would normally expect from a senior with his talent. Against NC State (his first real disappearing act of the season) he was often just standing around of offense. Some said he was hiding - I agree. Those are the actions of a player who has lost confidence and doesn't want to be the one taking the big shots.

4. While it's true that defenses may be able to focus more on him this season and the box is cluttered he also has the experience and talent to adjust. And those defenses aren't causing him to miss shots he normally makes, like the short 2's he has shown to be in his arsenal in the past. They aren't causing him to pass up open 3's. NC State's defense in early January wasn't good enough to hold him to 8 points. It's on him as well.

5. I think things changed for Grayson after his sophomore, when his face was plastered all over the national publications which were touting him as the next POY. Until that point his extraordinary success was unexpected. He wasn't the hot take Duke player, Ingram was. But after his great soph campaign suddenly all this performance pressure was on him and his junior year that pressure showed. I know he was injured and having to run the point and that made everything worse but he also just seemed surprisingly stressed and just didn't look very happy. I think the tripping incidents were both the result of the stress he was feeling and they in turn exacerbated it. Now again this year the pressure is on him to be the Duke leader and to take charge. But he strikes me as someone who is happier doing his thing in the background, not being the focal point of attention. I think this may be part of the reason Allen often seems to disappear the game immediately following a breakout performance. He scores 37 and is 7 for 11 from 3 against MichSt, next game he goes 0 for 6 from the arc and scores 10 against Southern. Last season, similar pattern. Thirty-four pts on 6 for 9 from 3 vs UNLV then 1 for 6 from 3 the next game. Against UNC 25 points, 7 for 12 from 3, next game he is 2 for 7 for 8 points. He doesn't seem to feed off his success as much as retreat from it. (Excuse the psychoanalyzing - psychologist by trade.)

6. NONE of this is about bashing Grayson. I love the guy. I want him to figure it out. In fact I think the coaching staff could help him by not playing him every minute and putting so much pressure on him. Because we need the confident Grayson back. And back consistently. The confident Grayson can score against any college defense and no matter who his teammates are. I'm sure of it.

[Devilwin]

Grayson is a reactionary player. Catch and shoot, do not hesitate. Maybe he's thinking he'll pull the trigger too much, and leaders don't take all the shots. I don't know. But I do know he appears hesitant to shoot sometimes when he's open. Maybe he does have some kind of nagging injury (I've noticed him shaking his wrist at times).
But we need him in a bad way to make a title run, and that is a fact.

[swood1000]

It's also possible that he tensed up thinking about the effect of his performance this year on the kind of NBA offer that might be within his grasp, and/or what his place will be in the all-time Duke pantheon.

[Devilwin]

It's also possible that he tensed up thinking about the effect of his performance this year on the kind of NBA offer that might be within his grasp, and/or what his place will be in the all-time Duke pantheon.

That too, is a valid point. But whatever it is, we need the old Grayson back.

[johnb]

My guess is that his hand hurts, and no one is reporting the injury.

If this is injury rather than slump, this would be the 2nd straight season in which GA has sacrificed public perception of his skill set in order to not give away clues to opponents. If that's true, and he's potentially sacrificing NBA money to be a good teammate, then he's even greater than one might otherwise think...

[madscavenger]

Lots of great insight. Most explanations cited seem reasonable and justifiable. Further, some will meld with others and create their own hybrid. We know, however, that Greyson is battle tested on the court and academically superior both on and off the court. He knows what he should be doing and clearly is willing to sacrifice in the interest of the team.

Something not specifically mentioned is that Greyson's effectiveness may be impaired by an offense designed this year to go through Marvin, not Greyson. That's a lot to put on a freshman no matter how special he is. Opposing coaches are taking advantage of that. Experience counts. Greyson has it, Marvin is still learning.

Greyson's teammates need to look for him more. However, he plays best when he is aggressive, not so easy to turn on and off. When you're not the first option, this can be a problem.

As the season progresses, we're going to have to vary that, and i'm pretty sure we will. We have in the past made very successful adjustments midseason, sometimes even late season, with excellent results. Should we decide to stick with the current scheme, we'll just have to get Greyson more picks. Right now, we're occupied by two things, making the defense much stronger (teaching and practice, practice, practice) and playing every single minute as if the season was on the line.

[accfanfrom1970]

Lots of great insight. Most explanations cited seem reasonable and justifiable. Further, some will meld with others and create their own hybrid. We know, however, that Grayson is battle tested on the court and academically superior both on and off the court. He knows what he should be doing and clearly is willing to sacrifice in the interest of the team.

Something not specifically mentioned is that Grayson's effectiveness may be impaired by an offense designed this year to go through Marvin, not Grayson. That's a lot to put on a freshman no matter how special he is. Opposing coaches are taking advantage of that. Experience counts. Grayson has it, Marvin is still learning.

Grayson's teammates need to look for him more. However, he plays best when he is aggressive, not so easy to turn on and off. When you're not the first option, this can be a problem.

As the season progresses, we're going to have to vary that, and i'm pretty sure we will. We have in the past made very successful adjustments midseason, sometimes even late season, with excellent results. Should we decide to stick with the current scheme, we'll just have to get Grayson more picks. Right now, we're occupied by two things, making the defense much stronger (teaching and practice, practice, practice) and playing every single minute as if the season was on the line.

Went with Grayson.

[madscavenger]

Went with Grayson.

Gotta get him untracked too.


Got my spellcheck from Art Bell, so this may require adjudication.


My bad.