MBB: Duke at Cheaters (Th 2/8, 8pm, ESPN)

[gofurman]

Going with a couple cheat fans this Thursday. This will be my first Duke mens game. While it sucks it’s at the Dean Dome I’m still obviously excited. Any advice on what time we should arrive there? Also curious if the basketball museum will be open on Thursday? I’d like to go check it out before heading to the game.

Going into this game w a we-will-lose approach. If we win its gravy. lost at BC and NC State. Such a young team. I want to aim for March. Keep learning D. SHOW EFFORT! Dive for balls. No stupid turnovers - no live ball turnovers which lead to 2 pts. Shoot Grayson shoot. Feed the post all night. If we lose, fine, but get better. Rather lose now and make a good March run...

[Troublemaker]

Going into this game w a we-will-lose approach. If we win its gravy. lost at BC and NC State. Such a young team. I want to aim for March. Keep learning D. SHOW EFFORT! Dive for balls. No stupid turnovers - no live ball turnovers which lead to 2 pts. Shoot Grayson shoot. Feed the post all night. If we lose, fine, but get better. Rather lose now and make a good March run...

The "lose but show improvement, making fans more positive for March" scenario is so narrow it might as well not exist.

Nothing positive will come from a loss on Thursday.

Time for the boys to step it up.

[gofurman]

The "lose but show improvement, making fans more positive for March" scenario is so narrow it might as well not exist.

Nothing positive will come from a loss on Thursday.

Time for the boys to step it up.

I understand. want Duke to win in a huge way... But South Carolina was a good but not great team last year who peaked in March- and, unfair as I think that is, people recall their season as better

Don't get me wrong. I really want to win Thursday. Will be sad if we lose. Really sad is we look uninspired - at least show huge effort and leave it all on the floor. Bailey and Carter should OWN the paint

[duke4ever19]

I understand. want Duke to win in a huge way... But South Carolina was a good but not great team last year who peaked in March- and, unfair as I think that is, people recall their season as better

Don't get me wrong. I really want to win Thursday. Will be sad if we lose. Really sad is we look uninspired - at least show huge effort and leave it all on the floor. Bailey and Carter should OWN the paint

And prior to that South Carolina game, we were riding a major high from that epic ACC Tournament run which resulted in a championship.

And many in the media began proclaiming that Duke had turned the corner and was now emerging as the scary-good team that they were predicted to be in the pre-season. I'll admit it . . . I didn't see South Carolina coming.

[Troublemaker]

I understand. want Duke to win in a huge way... But South Carolina was a good but not great team last year who peaked in March- and, unfair as I think that is, people recall their season as better

Don't get me wrong. I really want to win Thursday. Will be sad if we lose. Really sad is we look uninspired - at least show huge effort and leave it all on the floor. Bailey and Carter should OWN the paint

A few things:

• Historically, Duke doesn't get to the Final Four the way South Carolina did. We make our runs by getting a high seed, most often a #1 seed.
• The loss to St. John's and Coach K's postgame press conference raised the stakes for this game, even as high-stakes as a Duke-UNC game usually is. The team needs to respond here. It's not a must-win but a near-must-win.
• More to the point, you are afraid of UNC beating us and thus are psychologically artificially lowering the stakes. "A loss is okay if blah blah blah." Stop. It's UNC. Beat their butts.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Some interesting nuggets about UNC this year.

They are relying on 3 point shooting more than ever, but they are not a particularly good shooting team. This might account for the 7 losses on the season. As a team, they are only 82nd in the nation in 3P% (37.2%) and are 10th in the ACC in conference play at 34.9%. Where they really struggle is on the defensive end. They are allowing 38.2% 3P% to opponents, good for 344th (out of 351) in the nation and 13th in conference play at a whopping 39.2%. Hello Gary Trent, Jr.! Grayson, buddy, please also contribute. Your team needs you.

After losing Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, and Justin Jackson, one would have expected a drop off in their rebounding abilities. That is not the case. If Cam Johnson and Luke Maye both start, as has been the case lately, their tallest player is 6'7". They are particularly good at the offensive rebound, hauling in 36.% of their misses, 3rd best in the nation. A lot of those are coming off of missed 3's. With Johnson and Maye playing opposite Bagley III and Carter, Jr., I don't know how either team will guard the other. Duke may play more zone to limit the number of times the bigs will have to defend on the perimeter. On the offensive end, I don't see how either of Johnson or Maye will stop the Duke bigs. Expect a number of lobs and Carter, Jr. getting a ton of isolation.

Looking at their other stats, nothing really pops out. They appear to be playing at their normal quick tempo, transition-oriented offense. When they miss 3's, they generate a lot of second chances. The key here appears to be to own the defensive boards and keep the game to more of a halfcourt affair. Virginia and Michigan State were able to hold this North Carolina team under 50 points each with that strategy. It's easier said than done, of course.

GTHC

[Troublemaker]

Matchups will be so interesting in this one.

UNC's lineup that should give us the most problems is the one with Maye at center and CamJohnson at PF. But will Roy be so mind-fricked by the presence of Carter and Bagley that he chooses to play his traditional centers way more than he should?

And IF UNC does go to the small lineup for much of the game, can Coach K get creative with the defensive matchups? Bagley on CamJohnson is probably not a good idea. When UNC sets a down screen for Johnson to pop out up top for a three, is Bagley going to be able to navigate through that screen and chase Johnson off the line? Maybe, but I have my doubts. I think many NBA coaches would "hide" Bagley on Pinson, who's a horrible shooter, and have one of the guards take Johnson, for example. Bagley would then give Pinson a huge cushion when guarding him on-ball, daring him to take the three.

[CDu]

They are relying on 3 point shooting more than ever, but they are not a particularly good shooting team. This might account for the 7 losses on the season. As a team, they are only 82nd in the nation in 3P% (37.2%) and are 10th in the ACC in conference play at 34.9%. Where they really struggle is on the defensive end. They are allowing 38.2% 3P% to opponents, good for 344th (out of 351) in the nation and 13th in conference play at a whopping 39.2%. Hello Gary Trent, Jr.! Grayson, buddy, please also contribute. Your team needs you.

I wouldn't put too much stock in those ACC-only 3pt percentages. UNC has a ton of good 3pt shooters this year. They have 6 guys who are shooting over 36% from 3 for the season. And the only 2 of those that are below 39% are Berry and Johnson, who are arguably 2 of their 3 best shooters. Basically, everyone but Pinson and their centers is a terrific 3pt shooter.

Now, Johnson and Berry have had some up and down games in conference play, including some real clunkers from 3 (the Va Tech and State games being prime examples. They take a ton of UNC's 3pt attempts, so when they have off-days the team's percentage suffers. Given our struggles with defending the 3pt shot this year, UNC's 3pt shooting remains a significant concern.

[gofurman]

A few things:

• Historically, Duke doesn't get to the Final Four the way South Carolina did. We make our runs by getting a high seed, most often a #1 seed.
• The loss to St. John's and Coach K's postgame press conference raised the stakes for this game, even as high-stakes as a Duke-UNC game usually is. The team needs to respond here. It's not a must-win but a near-must-win.
• More to the point, you are afraid of UNC beating us and thus are psychologically artificially lowering the stakes. "A loss is okay if blah blah blah." Stop. It's UNC. Beat their butts.

yes, I am.. As a true fan I fear EVERY opponent. EVERY ONE. I was very much afraid of St Johns and the way they were underrated with very close losses to Villanova and Xavier etc. Anyone who can play within 5-7 points of Villanova and Xavier can beat us. And it is perfectly fine if I approach games in whatever way I want. What I think - or any fan thinks - doesn't matter one iota as to what Duke does Thursday or in March. No need to tell me how to think or not think w regards to something as trivial in the big picture of life as a basketball game. to each his own. Look, I want Duke to win as much as anyone.. but I am also aware Duke can win the national title having lost this week. It isn't college football where 2 regular season losses knocks you out of the running. I do agree Duke historically wins the title as a top seed but, then again, how often is Duke NOT a top 1/2/3 seed? not often. So there isn't much sample size of data from which to say we can't make a run as a 3 seed... Conversely, you could also say Duke historically loses in the first weekend MORE OFTEN as a top 1- 4 seed than as a 6-8 seed. I haven't looked but I bet that is a statistical fact. Because we aren't usually a 6-8 seed.. But we do lose on occasion in the first weekend as a 2-4 seed (Lehigh, Mercer etc)

Every year, we - and every team - have these losses.. often to NC State for us. And we sometimes have won the National Title soon thereafter. Heck, Duke won the ACC weekend title last year - which is banner worthy.. and then couldn't get out of the first weekend. Given my choice - I would rather not have won the ACC weekend and made the Final Four

All that said, I call it a coin flip at UNC and think we win at home. It's really a bigger game for UNC this week , if they lose they are 6-6 and 17-8. If we lose we are 7-4 and 19-5. Plus we turn around after this game w at GT and home VT. UNC goes right to State for another tough one.

[Troublemaker]

yes, I am.. As a true fan I fear EVERY opponent. EVERY ONE. I was very much afraid of St Johns and the way they were underrated with very close losses to Villanova and Xavier etc. Anyone who can play within 5-7 points of Villanova and Xavier can beat us. And it is perfectly fine if I approach games in whatever way I want. What I think - or any fan thinks - doesn't matter one iota as to what Duke does Thursday or in March. No need to tell me how to think or not think w regards to something as trivial in the big picture of life as a basketball game. to each his own.

I mean, all opinions should be fair game for critique. You can try to downplay the game, and I can ask whom you are trying to fool :-) It's clearly a huge game because it's Duke-UNC and it's also coming off the SJU loss and Coach K's postgame presser. (And yes, obviously what we write on this forum has no effect on the game).

[jamos14]

My biggest concern going into the game is how does Duke defend Berry/Maye in a pick and roll or pick and pop? If I were UNC, I would run it every single play. Duke proved they couldn't defend it well against Ponds. Berry isn't as quick in the lane but he has Maye to cause more problem with the pick and pop play.

Does UNC run a lot of pick and roll action?

[W&LHoo]

Does the fact that both programs could really use the quality win for tournament seeding purposes raise the stakes/temperature or are emotions already basically as high as they can be anytime you guys play each other?

[richardjackson199]

Does the fact that both programs could really use the quality win for tournament seeding purposes raise the stakes/temperature or are emotions already basically as high as they can be anytime you guys play each other?

Yes

[Eakane]

"And it is perfectly fine if I approach games in whatever way I want. What I think - or any fan thinks - doesn't matter one iota as to what Duke does Thursday or in March."

If I don't prepare adequately for the game, how can I expect the team to do more? I'm watching tape, I'm carbo-loading, I'm pre-arranging my schedule to clear everything. I'm even contemplating a pre-game nap. Then I'll be ready.

Couple of truisms to consider:

1. The UNC team that flailed at home against Winthrop will not be showing up Thursday. Every year they drop a stinker like College of Charleston, and then come out like warrior poets (watched Braveheart recently) for the Duke game.

2. This is an undermanned UNC team, the result of early entrants and recruits who had more common sense than the NCAA had, and rightly stayed away. Thin up front, less than usual quality everywhere else.

3. Duke has got to find a defensive identity. No reason not to start now. Start with this: GET BACK on D. Must be ready for Carolina's secondary break. GET BACK. I get hoarse yelling this at the TV.

4. For me, the key is TD. I think Gray will find his shot, and if he's doubled every time he touches the ball, like in the UVa game, he'll make the right pass. Trent is going to give you points, even if he disappears from the O from time to time. Carter and Bags are going to combine for monster numbers. And the bench is going to contribute nada. So that leaves Tre. I'm not jumping on the "it's-his-fault" bandwagon; just saying that as the point, as the on-court extension of K, as the floor general, as the one with the ball in his hands, he has got to make good decisions. Play with a reckless abandon that isn't "reckless." Don't be afraid to throw it long just because of the terrible pass at the end of the UVa game. Controlled chaos. Every possession is precious. Every possession.

We'll go as far as Tre takes us this season. I hope he welcomes that responsibility.

[Troublemaker]

Pick and Roll/Pop
My biggest concern going into the game is how does Duke defend Berry/Maye in a pick and roll or pick and pop? If I were UNC, I would run it every single play. Duke proved they couldn't defend it well against Ponds. Berry isn't as quick in the lane but he has Maye to cause more problem with the pick and pop play.

Does UNC run a lot of pick and roll action?

There was a recent game (UNC at Clemson?) where they ran almost exclusively PNR with Berry down the stretch of the game, but typically UNC isn't a heavy PNR team. Actually, in recent history, UVA and UNC are the two ACC teams against whom we get a reprieve from playing PNR defense. They both just run their stuff. UVA's uses a barrage of off-ball screens to free perimeter scorers, and UNC tries to post us up and throw in a down screen here and there for Justin Jackson to pop out up top for three.

With UNC's personnel being atypical for them this season, we'll just have to wait and see how they attack Duke. It probably does behoove them to test our PNR defense, and we probably would switch a Berry/Maye pick-and-pop. They should also set off-ball screens to try to free their shooters. We weren't able to guard UVA's off-ball screens very well, although I hope we'll be improved in this game.

If I were Duke, I would want UNC to play Sterling Manley a lot and try to post him up. While he looks like a good, young big man, that's probably the least concerning of their options.

[CDu]

There was a recent game (UNC at Clemson?) where they ran almost exclusively PNR with Berry down the stretch of the game, but typically UNC isn't a heavy PNR team. Actually, in recent history, UVA and UNC are the two ACC teams against whom we get a reprieve from playing PNR defense. They both just run their stuff. UVA's uses a barrage of off-ball screens to free perimeter scorers, and UNC tries to post us up and throw in a down screen here and there for Justin Jackson to pop out up top for three.

With UNC's personnel being atypical for them this season, we'll just have to wait and see how they attack Duke. It probably does behoove them to test our PNR defense, and we probably would switch a Berry/Maye pick-and-pop. They should also set off-ball screens to try to free their shooters. We weren't able to guard UVA's off-ball screens very well, although I hope we'll be improved in this game.

If I were Duke, I would want UNC to play Sterling Manley a lot and try to post him up. While he looks like a good, young big man, that's probably the least concerning of their options.

Agree with this totally. UNC historically runs most of their screen action away from the ball, either to free up a guy in the post or to free a shooter on the wing. If they stick to that script, advantage us.

It will be very interesting to see whether Williams sticks with his most effective lineup (which has been Maye with four guards/wings) or if he is enticed to go back to a more traditional UNC lineup for fear of our bigs. Obviously, if Felton and Woods are both still out (well, Felton WILL be out, Woods is questionable), they'll have to go big at least some, as they simply don't have the perimeter depth/quality to stay with four pure perimeter guys for 40 minutes. And of course Williams WANTS to go big, so any excuse to do so would probably seem like a real possibility for it to happen. It's just that the quality of Williams' bigs after Maye is... well... low. Manley has plenty of potential, but he's still probably a year away. And the other two (Brooks, Huffman) are just not that good (at least not yet).

It would be really interesting to see Williams stick with his smallball lineup against us for 30+ minutes.

[Neals384]

I think the script is going to be pretty easy to predict for this one. We will come out on fire, probably get an early 10 point lead of say 26-16, then the ADD kicks in as the team start to think the game is in hand, followed by sloppy turnovers and inattention on d, leading to an inability to pull away and letting UNC hang around. Probably end the first half with a slim lead of 42-38. Then the 2nd half starts and the sloppiness continues, meanwhile the other team get their act together and puts together a run and with 10 minutes left we're down 64-54.

At which point the team wakes up and makes a run, takes a 73-71 lead with about 4 minutes left. Honestly I'm not sure how it ends but I'm pretty sure that's how the first 36 will go.

Not sure my heart can take another one of these...

I don’t understand all the hand wringing. I have it good authority that K is feeding he lions raw meat all week and preparing an all out siege against dean’s myth dome. The sheep don’t stand a chance.

That's more like it!

(And yes, obviously what we write on this forum has no effect on the game).

What? I thought Jumbo was lurking here to get input for our game plan

We'll go as far as Tre takes us this season. I hope he welcomes that responsibility.

That's about the size of it. If he plays to his capability every possession, we will win out the season.

[gofurman]

"And it is perfectly fine if I approach games in whatever way I want. What I think - or any fan thinks - doesn't matter one iota as to what Duke does Thursday or in March."

If I don't prepare adequately for the game, how can I expect the team to do more? I'm watching tape, I'm carbo-loading, I'm pre-arranging my schedule to clear everything. I'm even contemplating a pre-game nap. Then I'll be ready.

Couple of truisms to consider:

1. The UNC team that flailed at home against Winthrop will not be showing up Thursday. Every year they drop a stinker like College of Charleston, and then come out like warrior poets (watched Braveheart recently) for the Duke game.

2. This is an undermanned UNC team, the result of early entrants and recruits who had more common sense than the NCAA had, and rightly stayed away. Thin up front, less than usual quality everywhere else.

3. Duke has got to find a defensive identity. No reason not to start now. Start with this: GET BACK on D. Must be ready for Carolina's secondary break. GET BACK. I get hoarse yelling this at the TV.

4. For me, the key is TD. I think Gray will find his shot, and if he's doubled every time he touches the ball, like in the UVa game, he'll make the right pass. Trent is going to give you points, even if he disappears from the O from time to time. Carter and Bags are going to combine for monster numbers. And the bench is going to contribute nada. So that leaves Tre. I'm not jumping on the "it's-his-fault" bandwagon; just saying that as the point, as the on-court extension of K, as the floor general, as the one with the ball in his hands, he has got to make good decisions. Play with a reckless abandon that isn't "reckless." Don't be afraid to throw it long just because of the terrible pass at the end of the UVa game. Controlled chaos. Every possession is precious. Every possession.

We'll go as far as Tre takes us this season. I hope he welcomes that responsibility.

good point - everyone do whatever it takes as far as good luck for the good guys ! however/whatever you did the last time we beat unc - do that !

not nit picking but I think you meant WOFFORD and not Winthrop beat UNC? As a Furman guy (see my name) I am familiar w Wofford - interesting, UNC is playing AT Wofford next year .. SoCon is decent this year. Wofford alone beat UNC and Georgia Tech. But I digress

[PackMan97]

Please beat the Cheaters senseless. Beat them by 30 in the first half, and then another 30 in the second. Break all of their ankles (basketball wise), crush their spirits and then do it again to the walk-ons when Roy abandons them on the court! Show no mercy. Sweep the leg. Bar the arm. Lock the head. Give them a wedgie and then a swirlie. Make them cry uncle and then cry for their mommies.

That's my way of saying, good luck and I hope the good guys win this one.

[BigZ]

Duke fell to number 9 and Carolina 21.