MBB: Duke vs Notre Dame (1/29, 7 pm, ESPN) Pre-game and In-game Thread

[Bob Green]

Discuss the Notre Dame game here.

[Devilwin]

Notre Dame is depleted. We should beat them but we'll have to make the free throws and be careful with the ball.

[tbyers11]

Notre Dame is depleted. We should beat them but we'll have to make the free throws and be careful with the ball.

Yes, very depleted. No Bonzie or DJ Harvey. According to Brey's comments last week, Matt Farrell won't be playing either to make sure his ankle heals. A ND team that only played at best 7 guys when fully healthy without its top 2 players and its sixth man (when all healthy) is not the same.

On top of cutting down on TOs and FTs. I sincerely hope we see more bench minutes whether we blow them out early or not. Guys are going to be tired after the short turnaround. Thankfully no travel.

[uh_no]

Yes, very depleted. No Bonzie or DJ Harvey. According to Brey's comments last week, Matt Farrell won't be playing either to make sure his ankle heals. A ND team that only played at best 7 guys when fully healthy without its top 2 players and its sixth man (when all healthy) is not the same.

On top of cutting down on TOs and FTs. I sincerely hope we see more bench minutes whether we blow them out early or not. Guys are going to be tired after the short turnaround. Thankfully no travel.

i didn't realize, but contrary to usual, they're one of the slowest teams in the country this year. good. our guys need a break.

[gofurman]

Yes, very depleted. No Bonzie or DJ Harvey. According to Brey's comments last week, Matt Farrell won't be playing either to make sure his ankle heals. A ND team that only played at best 7 guys when fully healthy without its top 2 players and its sixth man (when all healthy) is not the same.

On top of cutting down on TOs and FTs. I sincerely hope we see more bench minutes whether we blow them out early or not. Guys are going to be tired after the short turnaround. Thankfully no travel.

Reasons duke may win 1). No Bonzi. No Ferrel and no Harvey Who was helping w lack of Bonzi

2) short turnaround but Notre Dame playd at 8pm Saturday and travel. We get to stay home

3) I don’t see how they handle Bagley and Carter when we are on O

4). Cameron

5). Notre Dame is Not as good on road

Reasons to worry 1). They can shoot the three

2). They shoot FTs very well

3) do they play 4 out one in w no Bonzi? The big Lithuanian is the only real big guy and Moon at the 4 can shoot ! Bagley and Carter may be a liability if they are shooting the 3 w Moon at 6’9. Tough cover

4). Look at last few games. They lost but BARELY. 1 point loss to UNC they coulda won. double OT loss to good Louisville team. Their record is a little deceiving.

[CDu]

i didn't realize, but contrary to usual, they're one of the slowest teams in the country this year. good. our guys need a break.

They actually are pretty regularly a slow-tempo team. Last year was their first in a long time being among the top-200 in tempo.

They have always been an efficient offense, but typically they play at a snail’s pace.

[gofurman]

They actually are pretty regularly a slow-tempo team. Last year was their first in a long time being among the top-200 in tempo.

They have always been an efficient offense, but typically they play at a snail’s pace.

CDu. Need your scouting report !

[ndkjr70]

Most of my friends are Domers so I’ve caught a few games. Notre Dame with Farrell and Bonzie is a bonifide top-15 team very capable of beating Duke convincingly in Cameron.

I watched the “game” against VT last night, if that’s what you want to call it, and boy was it ugly. I think duke wins this one by 20+ and we’re seeing a lot of reserves down the stretch

[Natty_B]

Most of my friends are Domers so I’ve caught a few games. Notre Dame with Farrell and Bonzie is a bonifide top-15 team very capable of beating Duke convincingly in Cameron.

I watched the “game” against VT last night, if that’s what you want to call it, and boy was it ugly. I think duke wins this one by 20+ and we’re seeing a lot of reserves down the stretch

I don’t see any team, nationwide, that could beat Duke “convincingly” in Cameron. Guess we won’t find out with this ND bunch.

[ncexnyc]

I sincerely hope the kids stay focused on this game after the tough loss Saturday.

It's true ND is seriously depleted, but I've watched several of their recent losses and they still show up and fight hard every game.

Don't let the Irish hang close and score the quick KO. I don't want to see this game coming down to some freak play.

[CDu]

I feel a bit bad giving this scouting report for Notre Dame, as they are REALLY shorthanded in this one. No Colson (ACC PoY candidate), no Harvey (key 6th man and burgeoning performer), and per Brey no Farrell (All-ACC PG and second-best player). They are just a shell of the team that would have otherwise been sure to land an upper-third of the league season.

That said, here we go. Notre Dame has historically been a slow-paced, uber-efficient offensive team that struggled defensively. This year, they've still been really solid offensively, but have been also solid defensively. They don't turn the ball over, they crash the offensive glass ferociously, and they don't foul.
Unfortunately, I don't expect that team to show up tomorrow (at least not most of it). Without their two best offensive players, the Irish are REALLY shorthanded on that end. They should be reasonably solid defensively, but the offense just doesn't have the bite it should have without those guys (especially Colson and Farrell). In short, this is a game we should win fairly easily if Farrell is still out.

Centers: Martinas Geben (6'10", 250lb senior from Lithuania) is the starter in the middle. He's really improved over last year, going from a nonentity on the floor to a very solid contributor. He averages 10 and 8 for them in 24 mpg. Geben is VERY slow, and not a good vertical athlete at all. But he's strong and effective around the basket, and has a decent shooting touch too (including 81% from the FT line). He will work hard, rebound well on both ends, and get garbage points. But Carter should give him fits on the other end unless the refs "let'em play". Even then, Carter should give him more than he can handle on offense. The backup center is John Mooney (6'9", 250lb soph). Mooney is a big, physical guy who can shoot it but also lacks athleticism. Very good 3pt shooter and defensive rebounder, but doesn't bring much else. He might start at PF, but ditto the comments about Gebben's defense here.

Forwards: Colson would be the starter here, but he's still out with injury. So either Mooney or Austin Torres (6'7", 235lb senior) will get the start at PF. Torres is sort of the absolute opposite of Mooney: fairly athletic, but absolutely zero offensive skills. Torres is a good offensive rebounder, not as much a defensive rebounder. Both Mooney and Torres are foul-prone, averaging a combined 3.2 fouls per 24 minutes played. With the injury to Colson, there is a good chance that Elijah Burns (6'8", 240lb junior) will see the court some. Burns is a rugged player with a good shooting touch and is a solid rebounder on both ends. But, like the others, he's going to be overmatched by our bigs.

Wings: Rex Pflueger (6'6", 205lb junior) is the key player on the wing in the absence of Harvey. Don't let the surfer-dude appearance and California roots fool you: he's a very tough defensive player. Probably the best defender on the Irish squad. Unfortunately, he hasn't developed offensively as hoped. In some ways, Pflueger is a bit like Matt Jones. He's a capable shooter and solid ballhandler and passer, but just not a consistent enough offensive player. TJ Gibbs (6'3", 190lb sophomore) was the other wing until Farrell got hurt. But now, he'll be playing PG. Gibbs is a dynamic athlete and has really emerged as a scorer. He's up to 41.5% from 3 this year, and is the leading scorer since Colson went down. Gibbs is coming off a 27 point game against Va Tech, and is their most dangerous player on offense. Nikola Djogo (6'7", 210lb sophomore) has been thrust into the other starting wing spot. Djogo is a lanky wing with a capable 3pt shot. He's been very inconsistent so far though, and is not good defensively.

Guards: Matt Farrell (6'1", 175lb senior) is the normal starter, but it sounds like he is out for this game. If Farrell played, he's a real bulldog of a PG with terrific skills. Good shooter, good passer and ballhandler, pesky defender. He's an All-ACC level PG. His absence really hurts them. They have literally no depth on the perimeter. Gibbs and Pflueger will be asked to play 40 minutes and share the PG duties, and whenever Djogo sits they will go with 3 bigs. It's a mess.

Brey is a terrific coach, and I'll never put anything past him. But this is a game we should win handily. Gibbs can be a handful for sure, and if Pflueger and/or Djogo has a good night from 3, they can hang around. But honestly they are just so bereft of talent and experience, with only Gibbs and Pflueger having averaged even 13 mpg in a season prior to this year, and only Geben joining them in averaging at least 10 mpg in a season previously.

[uh_no]

They actually are pretty regularly a slow-tempo team. Last year was their first in a long time being among the top-200 in tempo.

They have always been an efficient offense, but typically they play at a snail’s pace.

huh. i guess i was just selectively seeing that they had good offense and ignored the fact that they were actually slow.

[CDu]

huh. i guess i was just selectively seeing that they had good offense and ignored the fact that they were actually slow.

It is certainly a bit counterintuitive, as you would think a high-efficiency offense with poor defense would want MORE possessions rather than less. But I think the issue is that they really work to get good shots within their offense, as opposed to having a ton of quick-strike scoring options.

[CameronDuke]

In 2015 when Duke went on their "run" in the ACC and rode it to a natty title, they lost at Notre Dame and Sheed got kicked off the team. They traveled to Virginia who rarely loses league games ever but especially not at home at the JPJ, and Tyus Stones dropped a dagger 3 late to win that game. This year, Duke played Virginia at home in an emotional roller coaster and lost a game late they could have probably won if a few more things go right and the ball bounces their way so to speak. Now Duke hosts Notre Dame in a game I am predicting starts Duke's 2018 "run". I still think this team can get to 15-3 in the ACC like the 2015 squad. Interestingly if it does happen, the "turning points" in 2015 and 2018 would come against Notre Dame and Virginia.

[DavidBenAkiva]

^^ good write-up CDu.

I'm sort of bummed that this is such a depleted Notre Dame team. I expect Duke to come out with some attitude after losing a close one to UVA and dominating from the onset against an overmatched and tired Fightin' Irish team.

1/28/2018: 80-75 L to Virginia Tech
After a week off, 7 Irish players appeared in the box score while 4 of them playing 30 minutes or more (Gibbs, 40; Pfluegger, 38; Djogo, 34; and Mooney, 32). Notre Dame did completely out-rebound VA Tech and shot the ball well from 3-point range. They had nearly as many 3-point attempts (29) as 2-point attempts (32). Of course, VA Tech shot the ball extremely well, hitting 14 of 25 three-point attempts (56.0%).

1/20/2018: 58-67 L @ Clemson
Matt Ferrell was one of 8 Irish that played in this game. While Ferrell led the team in assists (6), he shot the ball very poorly (2-11, with all but one attempt from 3). Temple Gibbs played the whole 40 minutes while Pflueger and Farrell both topped the 32-minute mark.

1/16/2018: 82-78 L to Louisville
Against the Cardinals, 9 Irish played in the double-overtime affair with Matt Ferrell and Temple Gibbs playing 48 minutes apiece. D.J. Harvey was injured after logging 7 minutes while Elijah Burns only checked in for 2 minutes. Ferrell shot the ball very poorly (8-25, including 4-14 from 3). The Irish had a great 50.0% offensive rebounding rate.

1/13/2018: 69-68 L to UNC
Without Matt Ferrell or Bonzi Colson, the Irish played 8 guys with Gibbs (39), Harvey (37), and Pflueger (34) staying on the court for most of the game. Notre Dame had another impressive performance on the offensive boards, grabbing 50.0% of the available rebounds.

1/10/2018: 53-60 L @ Georgia Tech
The beginning of the losing streak started one the road without Matt Ferrell or Bonzi Colson. The Irish had a poor shooting performance, hitting on just 4 of 18 attempts (22.2%). Temple Gibbs logged all 40 minutes of this one with Rex Pflueger playing 35 minutes.

Based on these performances, I expect Notre Dame to trot out a 7-man rotation. Gibbs has played nearly every minute of every game this year. He'll be starting at point guard. Rex Plfueger and Nikolo Djogo will start on the wing with Martinas Geben and John Mooney at the forward positions. Elijah Burns and Austin Torres will come off the bench, but I doubt they do more than provide a few minutes and fouls. The Irish won't have anyone to replace Gibbs and Pflueger. I wouldn't be surprised if Grayson and Gary try to run them off of screens to get them tired on defense. After made baskets, Duke will set up a 3-quarter-court press. Expect a lot of 3-point attempts and long rebounds.

[arnie]

^^ good write-up CDu.

I'm sort of bummed that this is such a depleted Notre Dame team. I expect Duke to come out with some attitude after losing a close one to UVA and dominating from the onset against an overmatched and tired Fightin' Irish team.

Based on these performances, I expect Notre Dame to trot out a 7-man rotation. Gibbs has played nearly every minute of every game this year. He'll be starting at point guard. Rex Plfueger and Nikolo Djogo will start on the wing with Martinas Geben and John Mooney at the forward positions. Elijah Burns and Austin Torres will come off the bench, but I doubt they do more than provide a few minutes and fouls. The Irish won't have anyone to replace Gibbs and Pflueger. I wouldn't be surprised if Grayson and Gary try to run them off of screens to get them tired on defense. After made baskets, Duke will set up a 3-quarter-court press. Expect a lot of 3-point attempts and long rebounds.

Not sure why you think our 7-man rotation will have more energy than ND’s rotation such that we’ll get them tired on D. I fully expect us to win, but ND will come to Cameron desperate.

In ACC play, we haven’t proven much yet: 4 wins against the 2 poorest teams (1 combined win) and 2-3 against the competitive teams. I’m surprised expectations remain so high; will have to play at a high level to win 12 ACC games, and with a letdown in a game or 2; could easily finish only 11-7. Every remaining conference game should be competitive.

[richardjackson199]

Vegas line is Duke by 14.5.

Time to get mean and cover by a lot.

[Kedsy]

could easily finish only 11-7.

Far as I'm concerned, that's crazy talk. I'll be surprised if we finish worse than 13-5. I'm not saying 14-4 is likely, but I think 14-4 is more likely than 11-7.

[arnie]

Far as I'm concerned, that's crazy talk. I'll be surprised if we finish worse than 13-5. I'm not saying 14-4 is likely, but I think 14-4 is more likely than 11-7.

I hope you’re right and it’s possible; I just don’t expect it.

[CDu]

Far as I'm concerned, that's crazy talk. I'll be surprised if we finish worse than 13-5. I'm not saying 14-4 is likely, but I think 14-4 is more likely than 11-7.

I agree. I think 15-3 is more likely than 11-7.