MBB: Duke vs UVA (Sat 1/27, 2:00pm ET, CBS) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Troublemaker]

Let's get this ball rolling.

IMO, the very first topic has to be this: Duke this season obviously wants to get the ball into Bagley and Carter in the post. However, UVA likes to double-team every post entry (big to big) and force turnovers from big men who make mistakes passing out of UVA's double-team.

Who wins this battle? I think it'll be UVA. And then the question for Duke offensively becomes: where do we go from here once UVA has taken away our Plan A?

[Troublemaker]

A note about UVA's defense.

Their current defensive efficiency (kenpom) of 81.5 is, by far, the best in the kenpom era. Seriously. Just use my link and click back through the years, and you'll see that nobody comes close to 81.5. It's a sick number, as the kids would say.

If UVA continues at this rate, it would have a good argument to be the greatest defensive team ever.

[dukelifer]

A note about UVA's defense.

Their current defensive efficiency (kenpom) of 81.5 is, by far, the best in the kenpom era. Seriously. Just use my link and click back through the years, and you'll see that nobody comes close to 81.5. It's a sick number, as the kids would say.

If UVA continues at this rate, it would have a good argument to be the greatest defensive team ever.

What makes them so great? They have big guards - is that the key? I am really amazed how consistent they are on D year after year.

[DarkstarWahoo]

What makes them so great? They have big guards - is that the key? I am really amazed how consistent they are on D year after year.

Isaiah Wilkins leveled up this year. He doesn't have the height that Akil Mitchell or Darion Atkins had, but I don't think UVA has ever had a big that understands the defense as well as he does. I do wonder how he can keep up his energy and effort levels all year long.

Elsewhere inside, Diakite is springy as hell and learning quickly, and Jack Salt is still a brick wall and has improved his shot-blocking. DeAndre Hunter's emergence has helped, and I think he'll be UVA's best defender by the time he's done. He's a weapon Tony can deploy against anyone at the 1-4 in a way he hasn't had since Brogdon left.

On the perimeter, as you said, the guards/wings are all pretty long except for Guy (who, despite being physically limited compared to the others, has really improved his defense this year) and Nigel Johnson (who is the weak link in the rotation at both ends but is still a good, quick on-ball defender when he's not freelancing). I think this is Tony's most versatile defensive team.

[Hingeknocker]

What makes them so great? They have big guards - is that the key? I am really amazed how consistent they are on D year after year.

Snarky answer: They have earned a reputation as a "tough defensive team" which allows them to foul as often as they want without the refs calling it.

Not-as-snarky answer: Their chosen style of play is designed to frustrate opponents on both ends of the floor. They're a pain to play against (and watch) in many ways, not just on defense. This adds to the effectiveness of their defensive scheme, which admittedly does work very well.

[Troublemaker]

IMO, the very first topic has to be this: Duke this season obviously wants to get the ball into Bagley and Carter in the post. However, UVA likes to double-team every post entry (big to big) and force turnovers from big men who make mistakes passing out of UVA's double-team.

Who wins this battle? I think it'll be UVA. And then the question for Duke offensively becomes: where do we go from here once UVA has taken away our Plan A?

Other possibilities besides UVA decisively winning this battle and Duke having to abandon getting the ball into the post:

• Bagley and Carter learn fast. They cough up turnovers the first few possessions, but as the game progresses and they see the double-team every trip down the floor, they start to find the open man. How much of a head start are we giving UVA, though? What's their lead in the game once our bigs start to figure out the double team?
• Bagley and Carter are such good passers that they beat the double-team from the start of the game. Nah, this won't happen. You can't simulate UVA's defense in practice, and there will be an adjustment period for all the freshmen going against the Pack Line.

[gocanes0506]

The guards will need to be better than MGIII and WC in this game.

I expect whoever is guarding Duval at the 3 point line to give him at least 5 feet of cushion. That way as soon as we feed it inside that defender rushes down to provide a high-low double team. Basically UVA should play a matchup zone with a rover. We could also see the outside defender closest to MBIII or WC dive down and Duval’s defender rotate over on Trent or Allen. UVA will try to prevent any drives or inside game. If K tries to counter with O’Connell, I’d expect denial of Allen the ball and big pressure on OC and GT when they try to bring up the ball.

The key will be hitting long range jumpers to open up the D. Also spread the defense and try to drive. Understanding that they will have help come over and a quick pass will be required. The team will feed right into UVA if they take highly contested / forced inside shots and miss a bunch of outside shots.

Rebounding is big. UVA is bad on offense and giving up offensive rebounds to them only aids they chances. Also nothing hurts defense more than having to play it for another 30 seconds. Offensive rebounds for Duke will go a long way.

On D the freshmen are going to have to understand that the struggles on the offensive side cannot affect their defensive play. I believe that is where UVA pulls away from teams. Teams get so frustrated that they can’t get anything going offensively and they begin to make dumb plays on defense. UVA gets easy baskets or to the FT line in the end. It could be a 40s game for both teams if both commit to solid defense as UVA lacks scoring power. Either team could get into the 60s or 70s if Duke (Duval) makes the open 3s or Duke gives UVA easy baskets/FTs because they are frustrated.

Duval has to come up huge in the game if the team is to have a chance. Also MBIII and WC can’t get out rebounded in this game.

[flyingdutchdevil]

A note about UVA's defense.

Their current defensive efficiency (kenpom) of 81.5 is, by far, the best in the kenpom era. Seriously. Just use my link and click back through the years, and you'll see that nobody comes close to 81.5. It's a sick number, as the kids would say.

If UVA continues at this rate, it would have a good argument to be the greatest defensive team ever.

To add to the absurdity, UVA ranks #1 in D with a defensive efficiency of 81.5. The #2 team? Cincinnati, with a 85.6!!!!!

Tony Bennett better get ACC Coach of the Year and, hopefully, NCAA Coach of the Year.

I'd rather have elite offense (from a viewer perspective), but I'm so jealous of this defense.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Isaiah Wilkins leveled up this year. He doesn't have the height that Akil Mitchell or Darion Atkins had, but I don't think UVA has ever had a big that understands the defense as well as he does. I do wonder how he can keep up his energy and effort levels all year long.

Elsewhere inside, Diakite is springy as hell and learning quickly, and Jack Salt is still a brick wall and has improved his shot-blocking. DeAndre Hunter's emergence has helped, and I think he'll be UVA's best defender by the time he's done. He's a weapon Tony can deploy against anyone at the 1-4 in a way he hasn't had since Brogdon left.

On the perimeter, as you said, the guards/wings are all pretty long except for Guy (who, despite being physically limited compared to the others, has really improved his defense this year) and Nigel Johnson (who is the weak link in the rotation at both ends but is still a good, quick on-ball defender when he's not freelancing). I think this is Tony's most versatile defensive team.

What does UVA want for Isaiah Wilkins? Can we trade you a top #10 player in the 2019 recruiting class for Wilkins this year? Are you willing to take that trade?

[Spanarkel]

Snarky answer: They have earned a reputation as a "tough defensive team" which allows them to foul as often as they want without the refs calling it.

Not-as-snarky answer: Their chosen style of play is designed to frustrate opponents on both ends of the floor. They're a pain to play against (and watch) in many ways, not just on defense. This adds to the effectiveness of their defensive scheme, which admittedly does work very well.

UVa gets called for the second(tied) fewest fouls per game in D1 hoops at 13.9/game.
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball...nt/team/286/p1

[CDu]

UVa gets called for the second(tied) fewest fouls per game in D1 hoops at 13.9/game.
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball...nt/team/286/p1

Part of that is pace of play. They play the slowest pace in D1. They are 17th in defensive FT rate, which is still really good. Conversely, they don’t draw fouls either, at #330 in offensive FT rate.

[PackMan97]

Is there a video or article that can explain why the Pack Line defense that Virginia uses is so good? ...and since it's so effective, why don't more teams play it?

[Troublemaker]

Alright, my last post on UVA's double-teams before moving onto other aspects of the game. (But, as I said, I think this is an appropriate topic to start with considering how Duke would like to play.)

In the 2015 game, Jahlil had 5 of Duke's 8 turnovers, only 3 assists, and only 10 points. UVA's double-team shut him down good, and even though he played 35 minutes, we mostly stopped going into him because of the high turnover rate. (Late in the game, he did find Quinn for a crucial three when a UVA defender made a mistake.) Duke needs to be prepared for the possibility that Bagley and Carter will be shut down in this game and have other plans of attack.

[Channing]

I actually think we are well situated to attack UVA (to the extent anyone is). Both of our bigs are great and willing passers. Both bigs have shown the ability to score when 5-8 feet away from the basket rather than just at the rim.

Unfortunately I'm not sure this game sets up great for TD unless he get really get out in transition. I can see UVA frustrating him on drives. Of course, if TD can get out and make 3-4 great plays early and build his confidence he has the speed to athleticism to get the offense really cranking. The key, in my mind, is going to be to not let one bad play spiral into a second/third/fourth bad play. I could see a lot of Grayson at the point for the steady hand with a dose of Gary and AOC on the perimeter for shooting.

[Troublemaker]

Is there a video or article that can explain why the Pack Line defense that Virginia uses is so good? ...and since it's so effective, why don't more teams play it?

It was invented by Dick Bennett, Tony's father. It's a secret family recipe that the two of them continue to refine to this day.

There are other people who try to play the Pack Line who have had some success but ultimately don't achieve the same results. Arizona is #76 on defense. Xavier is #63 on defense. For example. You can buy a knockoff Gucci bag and hope that no one will notice, but eventually everyone will know.

[Hoos Crazy]

To add to the absurdity, UVA ranks #1 in D with a defensive efficiency of 81.5. The #2 team? Cincinnati, with a 85.6!!!!!

Tony Bennett better get ACC Coach of the Year and, hopefully, NCAA Coach of the Year.

I'd rather have elite offense (from a viewer perspective), but I'm so jealous of this defense.

Take it a step further - the #3 defense in KenPom is Purdue with a defensive efficiency of 88.5. The gap between UVA and Purdue (7.0) is the same as the gap between Purdue and #34.

[flyingdutchdevil]

...is the last time UVA has won in Cameron. Let's keep this date alive, Duke!!!!

[camion]

I expect this to be an ugly game. First, that's the type of ball UVa plays. Second, it will be the first time for our freshmen to see this defense and it will likely frustrate them for a while. The big question is whether that "while" is the entire game. How fast will the frosh be able to adjust and how patient can they be?

Here's hoping.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I expect this to be an ugly game. First, that's the type of ball UVa plays. Second, it will be the first time for our freshmen to see this defense and it will likely frustrate them for a while. The big question is whether that "while" is the entire game. How fast will the frosh be able to adjust and how patient can they be?

Here's hoping.

While I agree, the whole college basketball world has circled this game. This game is being hyped up. UVa may play ugly ball, but they are a top 3 team in the country.

Duke will absolutely not take this game for granted. They will be ready. It's that big of a game.

[Kfanarmy]

To add to the absurdity, UVA ranks #1 in D with a defensive efficiency of 81.5. The #2 team? Cincinnati, with a 85.6!!!!!

Tony Bennett better get ACC Coach of the Year and, hopefully, NCAA Coach of the Year.

I'd rather have elite offense (from a viewer perspective), but I'm so jealous of this defense.

Maybe we should wait and see where the rest of the year plays out.