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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Here you go. Our OR% in the first half was 38.9%. Our DR% in the first half was 73.7%.

    Thus in the second half, our OR% was 23.5% and our DR% was 46.4%. And that pretty much was the ballgame (along with our incredibly poor 3.1% TO% for the game).

    I agree we had some unsuccessful hero ball at the end. But we also assisted on 63.3% of our made baskets, so I'm not sure it was all one-on-one play.
    Yeah, the rebounding as a team definitely got worse in the second half. A lot of that was that UNC changed its approach to put more guys in the lane. It definitely wasn't because Bagley was tired.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    What do you expect when Marvin doesn't come out of the game?? Grayson and Marvin can't play 40mpg every freaking game and be fresh at the end. We were standing around on the defensive glass, not boxing out, and showing no hustle. Fresher legs would lead to more hustle plays and better rebounding.
    Bagley was outstanding in the last 8 minutes or so of the game, and single-handedly prevented us from losing by double digits. So I don't see how his minutes are part of the issues we're having.

    That said, I agree with you that our offense was part of the problem last night, despite our still-high kenpom offensive rating.

  3. #43
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    Mar 2007
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    Mount Kisco, NY
    I keep thinking about how incompatible our starting 5 is with defending small ball line-ups, which are most of the line-ups we are facing anymore, and wonder if a forthcoming coaching tweak will address this aspect of things? It wouldn't be as much of an issue if Carter could guard the perimeter (and he's not the only culprit), but teams either spread out against our zone or they put us in high ball screens and attack or shoot when we go under. If we are going to play two bigs, I feel like we need to move away from switching everything. I also wonder if we could play smaller on offense by featuring Carter away from the basket some more. I know he's only attempted 30 threes but he's hit half of them. We'd miss his o-boards, but maybe it would open things up for Grayson.

  4. #44
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    I keep thinking about how incompatible our starting 5 is with defending small ball line-ups, which are most of the line-ups we are facing anymore, and wonder if a forthcoming coaching tweak will address this aspect of things? It wouldn't be as much of an issue if Carter could guard the perimeter (and he's not the only culprit), but teams either spread out against our zone or they put us in high ball screens and attack or shoot when we go under. If we are going to play two bigs, I feel like we need to move away from switching everything. I also wonder if we could play smaller on offense by featuring Carter away from the basket some more. I know he's only attempted 30 threes but he's hit half of them. We'd miss his o-boards, but maybe it would open things up for Grayson.
    Yeah, I remember folks in the preseason talking about how Carter was a better fit at PF next to Bolden (before we got Bagley of course). That was silliness. He's a center, and a beast defensively on the blocks. But he clearly struggles when pulled away from the basket defensively.

    We've tried a number of different things so far defensively. Trapping high ball screens, hedging hard, dropping down off screens, icing, zone, switching everything. Nothing seems to be working with any consistency. I feel like the dropping down worked best with Carter. Of course, I don't think that works as well for Bolden (who is a really good hedge and recover guy) or Bagley (who isn't bad on straight switches). Which is, of course, part of the problem. Our 3 bigs each do something different well defensively on high ball screens, which is problematic for the guards and for the defense in general.

    I also don't think that our guards are doing a great job of playing ball screens either. It's not all on the bigs. Duval is especially bad about simply stopping play whenever he meets a ball screen. He even occasionally gets caught stopping when he thinks the screen is coming, which leads to blow-by opportunities even when the screen doesn't happen (he has been caught flat-footed a lot).

    I don't bring this up to slam Duval, and he's not alone in playing poor perimeter defense. Just to note that it's not all on the bigs here.

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Here you go. Our OR% in the first half was 38.9%. Our DR% in the first half was 73.7%.

    Thus in the second half, our OR% was 23.5% and our DR% was 46.4%. And that pretty much was the ballgame (along with our incredibly poor 3.1% TO% for the game).
    Thanks, Kedsy. The numbers clearly back me up--rebounding was our issue in the 2nd half and I think Marvin's minutes contributed. More below.

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The play-by-play is out there. Bagley had 4 rebounds and a block in the last 5 minutes of the game. O'Connell and DeLaurier each had one offensive rebound in that span. Nobody else from Duke got a rebound on either end of the floor in the last 5 minutes.

    Bagley wasn't the problem with our rebounding last night.
    What a poor use of stats, CDu. You are better than that. Absolute value is not nearly as important as reb % for obvious reasons, but since you went there: Marvin did have less rebs in the second half (7) than he did in the first (9), playing effectively the same minutes (19 in 1st vs 20 in 2nd).

    But much, much more importantly Marvin rebounded a far less % of both the O and D boards.

    - UNC missed 19 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 6 of them (31%)
    - UNC missed 28 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 5 of them (18%)
    - Duke missed 16 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 3 of them (19%)
    - Duke missed 16 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 2 of them (13%)

    Now, we are dealing with the law of small numbers. But Marvin rebounded a far smaller % of missed shots in the 2nd half. Wendell didn't help and that was also an issue...and making 9 FGs in the 2nd half was also an issue, but Marvin was far less effective on the defensive boards in the 2nd half, which contributed to our poor overall reb % in the 2nd half...which contributed to our loss.

    (BTW, I think many on our team looked tired on D, including Grayson. We didn't get out to shooters...we got beat in transition...we are bad on D to begin with and when we are tired we can't use our athleticism to cover our mistakes. UNC missed several wide open 3s that could have really buried us.)

  6. #46
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    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, I remember folks in the preseason talking about how Carter was a better fit at PF next to Bolden (before we got Bagley of course). That was silliness. He's a center, and a beast defensively on the blocks. But he clearly struggles when pulled away from the basket defensively.

    We've tried a number of different things so far defensively. Trapping high ball screens, hedging hard, dropping down off screens, icing, zone, switching everything. Nothing seems to be working with any consistency. I feel like the dropping down worked best with Carter. Of course, I don't think that works as well for Bolden (who is a really good hedge and recover guy) or Bagley (who isn't bad on straight switches). Which is, of course, part of the problem. Our 3 bigs each do something different well defensively on high ball screens, which is problematic for the guards and for the defense in general.

    I also don't think that our guards are doing a great job of playing ball screens either. It's not all on the bigs. Duval is especially bad about simply stopping play whenever he meets a ball screen. He even occasionally gets caught stopping when he thinks the screen is coming, which leads to blow-by opportunities even when the screen doesn't happen (he has been caught flat-footed a lot).

    I don't bring this up to slam Duval, and he's not alone in playing poor perimeter defense. Just to note that it's not all on the bigs here.
    Do you think the 1-3-1 Zone would be any different? I don't remember it being used this season but didn't we use it some in the 2015 run? With the length of our team it seems like a good defense. Maybe Coach K is just not comfortable using it. GoDuke!

  7. #47
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    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    Thanks, Kedsy. The numbers clearly back me up--rebounding was our issue in the 2nd half and I think Marvin's minutes contributed. More below.



    What a poor use of stats, CDu. You are better than that. Absolute value is not nearly as important as reb % for obvious reasons, but since you went there: Marvin did have less rebs in the second half (7) than he did in the first (9), playing effectively the same minutes (19 in 1st vs 20 in 2nd).

    But much, much more importantly Marvin rebounded a far less % of both the O and D boards.

    - UNC missed 19 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 6 of them (31%)
    - UNC missed 28 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 5 of them (18%)
    - Duke missed 16 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 3 of them (19%)
    - Duke missed 16 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 2 of them (13%)

    Now, we are dealing with the law of small numbers. But Marvin rebounded a far smaller % of missed shots in the 2nd half. Wendell didn't help and that was also an issue...and making 9 FGs in the 2nd half was also an issue, but Marvin was far less effective on the defensive boards in the 2nd half, which contributed to our poor overall reb % in the 2nd half...which contributed to our loss.

    (BTW, I think many on our team looked tired on D, including Grayson. We didn't get out to shooters...we got beat in transition...we are bad on D to begin with and when we are tired we can't use our athleticism to cover our mistakes. UNC missed several wide open 3s that could have really buried us.)
    But Marvin's defense down the stretch was fantastic. Maybe he was gassed. Maybe getting him just a little rest could have helped. But you are correct, defensive rebounding killed us. GoDuke!

  8. #48
    pretty clearly, both Grayson and Trevon regressed a lot in this Phase. Neither are net positives to the performance of the team and that really, really drags the team out of "championship contender" and into "won't reach the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tournament" territory. Fix that, and this team can still do amazing things.
    Thinking of the UNC meltdown, both Trevon and Grayson had very, very ugly turnovers while trying to drive baseline, getting confused/panicked/worried/whatever, picked up their dribble, left their feet and just threw the ball to a UNC player. Get those 2 possessions back and Duke has a chance to win the game. Of course that can't be done, and we can only hope that they learn from it and don't do it again. My faith that this team will learn from its mistakes diminishes every game as they continue to make the same mistakes and have the same inability to focus for an entire game.
    There are some great talents on this team, but so far, as of the end of Phase IV, they have not learned how to play as a cohesive team for more than about 15 minutes per game yet. Perhaps there will be a "light goes on" moment for this team, and they become really good. Perhaps not, and they remain merely "good".

  9. #49
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    Feb 2008
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    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    pretty clearly, both Grayson and Trevon regressed a lot in this Phase. Neither are net positives to the performance of the team and that really, really drags the team out of "championship contender" and into "won't reach the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tournament" territory. Fix that, and this team can still do amazing things.
    Thinking of the UNC meltdown, both Trevon and Grayson had very, very ugly turnovers while trying to drive baseline, getting confused/panicked/worried/whatever, picked up their dribble, left their feet and just threw the ball to a UNC player. Get those 2 possessions back and Duke has a chance to win the game. Of course that can't be done, and we can only hope that they learn from it and don't do it again. My faith that this team will learn from its mistakes diminishes every game as they continue to make the same mistakes and have the same inability to focus for an entire game.
    There are some great talents on this team, but so far, as of the end of Phase IV, they have not learned how to play as a cohesive team for more than about 15 minutes per game yet. Perhaps there will be a "light goes on" moment for this team, and they become really good. Perhaps not, and they remain merely "good".
    To be fair, Grayson's bad turnover came with less than 30 seconds left and Duke down by 4 or so. Plus, you could argue he was being ridden out of bounds on the drive, which in most realities, would be called a foul. While you'd like that possession back, I think his bigger mistakes were taking too much time getting up the court with under a minute left. He let a lot of time tick off just bringing it up. That's where Duval could have helped, but he was fouled out.

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    Thanks, Kedsy. The numbers clearly back me up--rebounding was our issue in the 2nd half and I think Marvin's minutes contributed. More below.
    Rebounding was absolutely the issue in the second half. No disagreement there. But it wasn't Bagley's fault. More below.

    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    What a poor use of stats, CDu. You are better than that. Absolute value is not nearly as important as reb % for obvious reasons, but since you went there: Marvin did have less rebs in the second half (7) than he did in the first (9), playing effectively the same minutes (19 in 1st vs 20 in 2nd).

    But much, much more importantly Marvin rebounded a far less % of both the O and D boards.

    - UNC missed 19 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 6 of them (31%)
    - UNC missed 28 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 5 of them (18%)
    - Duke missed 16 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 3 of them (19%)
    - Duke missed 16 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 2 of them (13%)

    Now, we are dealing with the law of small numbers. But Marvin rebounded a far smaller % of missed shots in the 2nd half. Wendell didn't help and that was also an issue...and making 9 FGs in the 2nd half was also an issue, but Marvin was far less effective on the defensive boards in the 2nd half, which contributed to our poor overall reb % in the 2nd half...which contributed to our loss.

    (BTW, I think many on our team looked tired on D, including Grayson. We didn't get out to shooters...we got beat in transition...we are bad on D to begin with and when we are tired we can't use our athleticism to cover our mistakes. UNC missed several wide open 3s that could have really buried us.)
    Yeah, no.

    Bagley had an 18% defensive rebound rebound rate in the second half. That is a solid number. It is 1-2 rebounds different than in the first half. And a 19% versus a 13% offensive rebound rate from first half is literally 1 rebound difference.

    Bagley was otherworldy rebounding in the first half. He was just very good rebounding in the second half. The difference was a whopping 2-3 rebounds. Likely statistical noise. Note: he also had 2 blocks and a steal in the last 7 minutes of the second half. He was not the problem, and fatigue was not the problem for him. The problem was that UNC changed their approach in the second half, and made life more difficult for Bagley on both ends. And we also switched defenses multiple times, which didn't help.

    But the real problem is that nobody else was getting rebounds. We had at least one and often two other bigs on the floor in the second half. Those guys were not getting rebounds. Wendell Carter and Marques Bolden combined for 7 rebounds in 45 minutes. They were the rebounding problem for us in the second half. Because no player should be expected to be getting 31% of the defensive rebounds.
    Last edited by CDu; 02-09-2018 at 05:16 PM.

  11. #51
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    Oct 2013
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    Dallas, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    But the real problem is that nobody else was getting rebounds. We had at least one and often two other bigs on the floor in the second half. Those guys were not getting rebounds. Wendell Carter and Marques Bolden combined for 7 rebounds in 45 minutes. They were the rebounding problem for us in the second half. Because no player should be expected to be getting 31% of the defensive rebounds.
    Sounds like Jack White needs more minutes.

  12. #52
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    Sounds like Jack White needs more minutes.
    Haha. They needed something.

    I just can’t figure out how someone would go to fatigue as the reason that a guy with 4 boards, 2 blocks, and a steal in the last 7 minutes didn’t somehow average 30+% defensive rebound % in both halves. It is virtually impossible to average 30% rebound rate over any length of time unless you are just camping out near the rim a la Obi at Rice (which Bagley wasn’t doing).

    Meanwhile, our other two bigs logged 45 minutes and grabbed just 7 total. Bagley matched that on his own in the second half.

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    Thanks, Kedsy. The numbers clearly back me up--rebounding was our issue in the 2nd half and I think Marvin's minutes contributed. More below.



    What a poor use of stats, CDu. You are better than that. Absolute value is not nearly as important as reb % for obvious reasons, but since you went there: Marvin did have less rebs in the second half (7) than he did in the first (9), playing effectively the same minutes (19 in 1st vs 20 in 2nd).

    But much, much more importantly Marvin rebounded a far less % of both the O and D boards.

    - UNC missed 19 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 6 of them (31%)
    - UNC missed 28 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 5 of them (18%)
    - Duke missed 16 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 3 of them (19%)
    - Duke missed 16 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 2 of them (13%)

    Now, we are dealing with the law of small numbers. But Marvin rebounded a far smaller % of missed shots in the 2nd half. Wendell didn't help and that was also an issue...and making 9 FGs in the 2nd half was also an issue, but Marvin was far less effective on the defensive boards in the 2nd half, which contributed to our poor overall reb % in the 2nd half...which contributed to our loss.

    (BTW, I think many on our team looked tired on D, including Grayson. We didn't get out to shooters...we got beat in transition...we are bad on D to begin with and when we are tired we can't use our athleticism to cover our mistakes. UNC missed several wide open 3s that could have really buried us.)
    I am with CDu here. If you are arguing that Bagley was gassed, why even include the first part of the second half in your analysis, when he was more rested than the late first half? Would a tired player be better in the first five minutes of the half rather than the last, when Bagley excelled?

    He is a 19 year old kid with great conditioning who had five days between games. I am not saying it is impossible for Bagley to get gassed (though he does seem superhuman) just that I see no evidence of it. At least my eye test watching last night and your numbers don't convince me as such.

    Edit: also, a lot of those open three UNC got were very early in the game. I might buy fatigue for lazy defense later on, but not the first twelve minutes when the only thing keeping them close was Williams' hot hand.

  14. #54
    I haven’t enjoyed this phase much. Hope the next one is more fun.

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
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    near Charleston, SC
    This phase was defined by defensive rebounding. In my opinion, it is a direct result of a several shortcomings.

    First and least significant - Marquis and Javin injuries
    Second - no one on this team ever blocks out. They jump for the ball, which worked in High School, but not in college.
    Third - The back court, with a few exceptions, does not rebound at all.
    Fourth and most significant- poor pick and roll defense. They almost never "fight" through a screen, usually they allow themselves to be screened. Our big men end up 20 ft from the hoop and our perimeter players get stuck trying to rebound against the other teams bigs.

  16. #56
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    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by devilsince1977 View Post
    This phase was defined by defensive rebounding. In my opinion, it is a direct result of a several shortcomings.

    First and least significant - Marquis and Javin injuries
    Second - no one on this team ever blocks out. They jump for the ball, which worked in High School, but not in college.
    Third - The back court, with a few exceptions, does not rebound at all.
    Fourth and most significant- poor pick and roll defense. They almost never "fight" through a screen, usually they allow themselves to be screened. Our big men end up 20 ft from the hoop and our perimeter players get stuck trying to rebound against the other teams bigs.
    The exception= Grayson Allen with 3.5 rpg and Trent with 4.2rpg. Duval not the exception with 1.9 rpg. Compared to Tyus "Stones" Jones who had 3.5rpg and Quinn Cook with 3.4rpg.in 2015. So, the only guard that doesn't hit the boards seems to be Trevon. I believe part of that is his looking to push the ball back down court and that may be by design(coaches). GoDuke!

  17. #57
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    Aug 2016
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    near Charleston, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    The exception= Grayson Allen with 3.5 rpg and Trent with 4.2rpg. Duval not the exception with 1.9 rpg. Compared to Tyus "Stones" Jones who had 3.5rpg and Quinn Cook with 3.4rpg.in 2015. So, the only guard that doesn't hit the boards seems to be Trevon. I believe part of that is his looking to push the ball back down court and that may be by design(coaches). GoDuke!
    I was talking about defensive rebounds. Grayson averages 2.9 per game, Gary 3.2 and Trevon 1.4. That is 7.5 per game. With the heavy minutes they play it is not good. Also Tyus and Quinn were about 6'1 while Trevon and Grayson are taller and elite jumpers. Gary plays the baseline on the zone or is guarding the other teams largest perimeter player. He is in position to get more rebounds. In the 5 loses they are averaging 5.8 per game. Sorry, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. You can't push the ball down the court without rebounding it. So, I doubt Trevon is told not to worry about rebounding.


    If you think those are strong numbers, fine. I don't.

    The exception I was talking about was Grayson's 11 rebound game against Wake.

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by devilsince1977 View Post
    I was talking about defensive rebounds. Grayson averages 2.9 per game, Gary 3.2 and Trevon 1.4. That is 7.5 per game. With the heavy minutes they play it is not good. Also Tyus and Quinn were about 6'1 while Trevon and Grayson are taller and elite jumpers. Gary plays the baseline on the zone or is guarding the other teams largest perimeter player. He is in position to get more rebounds. In the 5 loses they are averaging 5.8 per game. Sorry, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. You can't push the ball down the court without rebounding it. So, I doubt Trevon is told not to worry about rebounding.


    If you think those are strong numbers, fine. I don't.

    The exception I was talking about was Grayson's 11 rebound game against Wake.
    After Justise moved up to PF, our starting perimeter was Tyus Jones (3.0 def reb per game), Quinn Cook (3.0 drpg) and Matt Jones (1.5 drpg), for a total of 7.5 drpg. Our starting perimeter now is (as you pointed out) Gary Trent (3.2 drpg), Grayson Allen (2.9 drpg), and Trevon Duval (1.4 drpg), for a total of 7.5 drpg.

    Also, while height and jumping ability may have some bearing on the rare occasions when a guard goes "in among the trees" to snare an interior rebound, the vast majority of perimeter player rebounds happen, not surprisingly, out on the perimeter, on long rebounds. And in those cases, height and jumping ability have a lot less bearing than positioning and boxing out (plus, to a large extent, luck).

    In any event, it's hard to fathom why 7.5 drpg from the perimeter might have been acceptable in 2015 but the exact same number is not acceptable now.

    (FWIW, the entire team is slightly better at defensive rebounding this season then we were in 2015, but it's pretty close.)

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    Sounds like Jack White needs more minutes.
    AOC got 3 rebounds in 18 total minutes. Not bad for a guard/SF.

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    After Justise moved up to PF, our starting perimeter was Tyus Jones (3.0 def reb per game), Quinn Cook (3.0 drpg) and Matt Jones (1.5 drpg), for a total of 7.5 drpg. Our starting perimeter now is (as you pointed out) Gary Trent (3.2 drpg), Grayson Allen (2.9 drpg), and Trevon Duval (1.4 drpg), for a total of 7.5 drpg.

    Also, while height and jumping ability may have some bearing on the rare occasions when a guard goes "in among the trees" to snare an interior rebound, the vast majority of perimeter player rebounds happen, not surprisingly, out on the perimeter, on long rebounds. And in those cases, height and jumping ability have a lot less bearing than positioning and boxing out (plus, to a large extent, luck).

    In any event, it's hard to fathom why 7.5 drpg from the perimeter might have been acceptable in 2015 but the exact same number is not acceptable now.

    (FWIW, the entire team is slightly better at defensive rebounding this season then we were in 2015, but it's pretty close.)
    Because in 2015 we played small ball, and purposely exchanged the ability to rebound in return for quickness on the perimeter. In 2015 we were among to top teams in the country in opponents 3PT% and forcing Turnovers. This year we're playing big and are terrible are defending the 3 and forcing turnovers, so we need to do much better on rebounding to make up for it.
    Further more, your numbers are off because in 15 we played a much slower tempo of 66 possession per game versus 71 ppg in 2018, add that to the fact this year's trio actually averages 6 more total minutes played per game means this year's trio is not rebounding nearly as well as the perimeter did in 2015.

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