Phase IV - Wake 2 through Unc 1

[CDu]

Actually I didn't. If you're going to be technical you should be accurate. I said the non-Wilkins shots were taken, "at a time when we'd been playing the zone for approximately 8 minutes."

Point taken. My statement still holds even with that revision. 6.6 is not approximately 8. Outside of some shoddy government work, of course.

[CDu]

Also note that Salt has just 9.8% of his FGAs on 2pt jumpers (90.2% of his shots are at the rim), whereas Wilkins has over 50% of his on 2pt jumpers. But, no, I'm sure you're right that they really are comparable shooters and not that it is a combination of small sample size anomaly for Salt and tougher shots for Wilkins.

To quantify this point, Salt has taken 5 shots away from the rim this year, and made 2. Wilkins has taken 54, and made 22.

For the last two years (for some reason hoop-math's 2016 isn't working, but I doubt it changes things much), Salt has taken 18 shots away from the rim, and made 5 (27.8%). Wilkins has taken 120 attempts, and made 47 (39.2%). I think it's fair to say that Salt is not taking as difficult a set of shots as Wilkins. Either that or he's been flukishly lucky on at least one attempt this year.

As a corrollary, Hall, Jerome, and Guy all shoot below 40% on 2pt jumpers. I don't see anyone suggesting Wilkins or Salt is as good or better as a shooter than those guys.

Volume and degree of difficulty matter. Marshall Plumlee isn't a better 3pt shooter than Grayson Allen.

[Kedsy]

To quantify this point, Salt has taken 5 shots away from the rim this year, and made 2. Wilkins has taken 54, and made 22.

For the last two years (for some reason hoop-math's 2016 isn't working, but I doubt it changes things much), Salt has taken 18 shots away from the rim, and made 5 (27.8%). Wilkins has taken 120 attempts, and made 47 (39.2%). I think it's fair to say that Salt is not taking as difficult a set of shots as Wilkins. Either that or he's been flukishly lucky on at least one attempt this year.

As a corrollary, Hall, Jerome, and Guy all shoot below 40% on 2pt jumpers. I don't see anyone suggesting Wilkins or Salt is as good or better as a shooter than those guys.

Volume and degree of difficulty matter. Marshall Plumlee isn't a better 3pt shooter than Grayson Allen.

OK, you win. I really don't care that much. My point was Wilkins taking a flat-footed 15 footer is a pretty good shot for Duke.

[dukelifer]

To quantify this point, Salt has taken 5 shots away from the rim this year, and made 2. Wilkins has taken 54, and made 22.

For the last two years (for some reason hoop-math's 2016 isn't working, but I doubt it changes things much), Salt has taken 18 shots away from the rim, and made 5 (27.8%). Wilkins has taken 120 attempts, and made 47 (39.2%). I think it's fair to say that Salt is not taking as difficult a set of shots as Wilkins. Either that or he's been flukishly lucky on at least one attempt this year.

As a corrollary, Hall, Jerome, and Guy all shoot below 40% on 2pt jumpers. I don't see anyone suggesting Wilkins or Salt is as good or better as a shooter than those guys.

Volume and degree of difficulty matter. Marshall Plumlee isn't a better 3pt shooter than Grayson Allen.

Right now- I am not sure who I would take in a 3pt shooting contest

[English]

I haven't checked hoop-math or anything (/s), but I did watch the game with a handful of Wahoo fans on Saturday--anecdotally, the stretch of the ~3rd quarter of the game was a lot of fun for me and not so much fun for them, as it did seem like all they got on offense were long 2pt jump shots. It became really pronounced the more it happened. It started as a comment like "wow, UVa's settling for some jumpers to start here," and ultimately crescendo'ed after the fourth, fifth, or sixth such miss and when Duke pulled ahead. I can't assign credit/blame because I haven't done a thorough breakdown of the sets, but it was stark.

[superdave]

Duke finished the phase with a 2-3 record. They blew games at St Johns and at Unc that they arguably should have been able to control and put away after building a lead.

To summarize, the team is young and is playing young. They are flat at the wrong times and either forcing things on one end or out of position on the other. The low-lights are giving up lots of offensive rebounds to Unc in the second half, not being able to guard the 3-point line vs Unc or SJU, and getting forced into being very conventional on offense in all three losses.

The higher lights are having a chance to win all three games, genuinely good defensive efforts vs ND and UVa.

While the defense has been a concern in the one and done era, the offense has looked downright predictable the last month. The ball handler is causing a lot of perimeter passing without creating any mis-matches. Duval has been sitting a fair amount in what seems to be an attempt by the coaches to slow him down and teach him to avoid the easy mistake. This is creating a lot of one on one perimeter action and less action flowing to the rim. It's forcing Bagley to forage for offense rather than using him as a battering ram. Allen is trying to facilitate more and score less. There's fewer plays for the big guys in space, and more bogging down in the lane. Defenses have figured out how to shut down the horns action we are running, and it looks really stale.

How do you open it up? Is it too late to run more set plays and pick and roll? This team should thrive on pnr rim runs for Bagley and Carter? But they are not getting them. Allen and Trent should thrive on baseline screens, but we are not seeing it.

In my mind, we need to give Duval the keys and throw away the spare set. He's explosive to say the least and should play through mistakes because he is the upside for this team. Go all in on pressing 3/4 court to control pace and on playing off Duval's penetration abilities on offense. An elite point guard sets you apart, and makes everyone better. Duval can get from raw talent to elite, because we've seen him do it for stretches. We've seen him play through foul trouble and win games. It's time to turn it over to him and push all the chips in.

Go Duke!

[Kedsy]

...the offense has looked downright predictable the last month.

Tonight we scored 1.21 points per possession against a top 30 defense. I really don't think offense was the problem.

[CDu]

Tonight we scored 1.21 points per possession against a top 30 defense. I really don't think offense was the problem.

Agreed. This was all about defense (as usual with this team). Not defending drivers well enough and getting obliterated on the offensive glass. We also really struggled to defend the 3pt line, and were fortunate that UNC missed a bunch of wide open 3s.

[superdave]

Tonight we scored 1.21 points per possession against a top 30 defense. I really don't think offense was the problem.

In a game where the gameplan was to outscore your opponent, Duke scored 9 points from the 6:32 point of the first half until intermission. They turned a 12 point lead into a 4 point lead, getting outscored 17-9. The offense looked like a clogged toilet.

They followed that up scoring 10 points the first 10 minutes of the second half. Again, the offense was forcing no switches, they were just taking two closely guarded dribbles and looking to get it to someone else. Allen can facilitate out of the pick and roll, but we are not running that so he's lost at point. Duval can create but he sat for stretches, and seems to be in the doghouse.

So yes, offense was the problem. It's not like the Unc defense should be stopping Bagley; it's that we dont come up with ways to spring Bagley to make plays. The offense has no imagination, not set plays, not quick hitters, not screening. It's all one one one, forcing guys to break someone down and make a play. And it's not working. Offense feeds defense and vice versa. The biggest issue was how a team plays so lethargically against Unc. But the bogged down offense was a direct cause of the lethargy.

Either we count on our true point guard to make everyone better or we can expect more of this.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

In a game where the gameplan was to outscore your opponent, Duke scored 9 points from the 6:32 point of the first half until intermission. They turned a 12 point lead into a 4 point lead, getting outscored 17-9. The offense looked like a clogged toilet.

They followed that up scoring 10 points the first 10 minutes of the second half. Again, the offense was forcing no switches, they were just taking two closely guarded dribbles and looking to get it to someone else. Allen can facilitate out of the pick and roll, but we are not running that so he's lost at point. Duval can create but he sat for stretches, and seems to be in the doghouse.

So yes, offense was the problem. It's not like the Unc defense should be stopping Bagley; it's that we dont come up with ways to spring Bagley to make plays. The offense has no imagination, not set plays, not quick hitters, not screening. It's all one one one, forcing guys to break someone down and make a play. And it's not working. Offense feeds defense and vice versa. The biggest issue was how a team plays so lethargically against Unc. But the bogged down offense was a direct cause of the lethargy.

Either we count on our true point guard to make everyone better or we can expect more of this.

I have no problem critiquing offense in the second half, but are you really dogging the offense in a half where we scored 49 points?

[Billy Dat]

My primary worry with the team at this point is their mental state. During the improbable comebacks that marked the pre-conference schedule, we developed a huge amount of confidence. Lately, we've been losing those games and we lack veterans who have been through the wars and can remind everyone that things can turn around. As such, K's vaunted ability to read a team and push the right buttons is more important than ever. Despite the losses, we have not yet lost a game where the outcome was decided with 2 minutes to go. The players need to understand that if we can just get a little better on defense, we'll be very tough to beat.

[CDu]

My primary worry with the team at this point is their mental state. During the improbable comebacks that marked the pre-conference schedule, we developed a huge amount of confidence. Lately, we've been losing those games and we lack veterans who have been through the wars and can remind everyone that things can turn around. As such, K's vaunted ability to read a team and push the right buttons is more important than ever. Despite the losses, we have not yet lost a game where the outcome was decided with 2 minutes to go. The players need to understand that if we can just get a little better on defense, we'll be very tough to beat.

Yeah, it's a precarious spot we're in. As you note, we aren't losing by much. And all of the losses were either on the road or against a great opponent. So even though things are going poorly, we aren't that far from being good.

That being said, losses are losses, and the emotional toll of losing 3 of 4 can add up, just like the emotional high of winning in dramatic fashion the way we did in November (or heck, the Miami game) can build you up.

Hopefully, the team gets a few wins soon and doesn't tailspin emotionally. Coaching and senior leadership are most critical right now, to keep the team from going in different directions.

There is obviously still time to right the ship. We aren't going to get the ACC regular season. We probably aren't going to get a 1 seed in the NCAAs. But we can still improve and get to the point of being the team that everyone expected/hoped for back in the Fall. And if we do, it won't matter that we are a 2 or even a 3 seed. They just have to figure it out, and they have to stay together until they can figure it out.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yeah, it's a precarious spot we're in. As you note, we aren't losing by much. And all of the losses were either on the road or against a great opponent. So even though things are going poorly, we aren't that far from being good.

That being said, losses are losses, and the emotional toll of losing 3 of 4 can add up, just like the emotional high of winning in dramatic fashion the way we did in November (or heck, the Miami game) can build you up.

Hopefully, the team gets a few wins soon and doesn't tailspin emotionally. Coaching and senior leadership are most critical right now, to keep the team from going in different directions.

There is obviously still time to right the ship. We aren't going to get the ACC regular season. We probably aren't going to get a 1 seed in the NCAAs. But we can still improve and get to the point of being the team that everyone expected/hoped for back in the Fall. And if we do, it won't matter that we are a 2 or even a 3 seed. They just have to figure it out, and they have to stay together until they can figure it out.

I still see no reason this team can't "click" and figure it out and blow the doors off someone at some point in the next few weeks. I think if they play to their potential for forty minutes and realize how much fun they can have beating the pants off a good team, it could change the course of the season in just a few hours. I was hoping last night was going to be that night, but it just didn't fall into place. UNC hit too many 3's in the first minutes to fall too far behind, and we slumped at the beginning of the second half.

[SilkyJ]

Tonight we scored 1.21 points per possession against a top 30 defense. I really don't think offense was the problem.

Agreed. This was all about defense (as usual with this team). Not defending drivers well enough and getting obliterated on the offensive glass. We also really struggled to defend the 3pt line, and were fortunate that UNC missed a bunch of wide open 3s.

I agree our defense still needs work, but the real issue was rebounding, both offensive and defensive, and our effort late. Rebounding has to be the strength of our team, and we got smoked in the 2nd half. I can't find a box score by half, but by eyes we were MUCH, MUCH worse on the glass in the 2nd half. What do you expect when Marvin doesn't come out of the game?? Grayson and Marvin can't play 40mpg every freaking game and be fresh at the end. We were standing around on the defensive glass, not boxing out, and showing no hustle. Fresher legs would lead to more hustle plays and better rebounding.

If we get a couple more O-boards and don't give them some of those 2nd chances, we may win despite our pathetic defense.

The other lever we can pull, though, is improving our our transition d and the number of straight line drives. Its like K has forgotten what got him here. Sit anyone who gets beat regularly. The bench is a powerful teaching tool. UVA seems to win plenty of games without any mickie ds. I also don't understand why we aren't icing ball screens...it worked pretty well with Jah in 2015. It protects our big men and doesn't put them in tough switches.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I agree our defense still needs work, but the real issue was rebounding, both offensive and defensive, and our effort late. Rebounding has to be the strength of our team, and we got smoked in the 2nd half. I can't find a box score by half, but by eyes we were MUCH, MUCH worse on the glass in the 2nd half. What do you expect when Marvin doesn't come out of the game?? Grayson and Marvin can't play 40mpg every freaking game and be fresh at the end. We were standing around on the defensive glass, not boxing out, and showing no hustle. Fresher legs would lead to more hustle plays and better rebounding.

If we get a couple more O-boards and don't give them some of those 2nd chances, we may win despite our pathetic defense.

The other lever we can pull, though, is improving our our transition d and the number of straight line drives. Its like K has forgotten what got him here. Sit anyone who gets beat regularly. The bench is a powerful teaching tool. UVA seems to win plenty of games without any mickie ds. I also don't understand why we aren't icing ball screens...it worked pretty well with Jah in 2015. It protects our big men and doesn't put them in tough switches.

Bagley had 15 points and 16 rebounds (and 4 assists!). I don't know that line in 39 minutes would recommend fewer minutes. As for being tired, he had a dunk and two rebounds in the last forty seconds of gameplay.

I don't see a tired Bagley at the end of games unless he's getting battered around underneath, which didn't seem to be as much of an issue last night as in some other recent games.

We made two baskets in the first almost six minutes of the second half while UNC built an eight point lead out of their halftime deficit. I don't think that's fatigue either.

[CDu]

Bagley had 15 points and 16 rebounds (and 4 assists!). I don't know that line in 39 minutes would recommend fewer minutes. As for being tired, he had a dunk and two rebounds in the last forty seconds of gameplay.

I don't see a tired Bagley at the end of games unless he's getting battered around underneath, which didn't seem to be as much of an issue last night as in some other recent games.

We made two baskets in the first almost six minutes of the second half while UNC built an eight point lead out of their halftime deficit. I don't think that's fatigue either.

I agree that Bagley wasn't the issue with the rebounding. Especially because his rebounding and defending down the stretch was quite impressive.

The issue on the boards did not appear to be fatigue. Our offensive rebounding was because UNC crowded the paint defensively. Our defensive rebounding was because they spread us out and used their quickness to beat our slower bigs to the boards.

[SilkyJ]

I agree that Bagley wasn't the issue with the rebounding. Especially because his rebounding and defending down the stretch was quite impressive.

The issue on the boards did not appear to be fatigue. Our offensive rebounding was because UNC crowded the paint defensively. Our defensive rebounding was because they spread us out and used their quickness to beat our slower bigs to the boards.

Can someone produce a halftime box score so we can look at the data? I could not find one.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Can someone produce a halftime box score so we can look at the data? I could not find one.

I referenced play by play on ESPN.

[CDu]

Can someone produce a halftime box score so we can look at the data? I could not find one.

The play-by-play is out there. Bagley had 4 rebounds and a block in the last 5 minutes of the game. O'Connell and DeLaurier each had one offensive rebound in that span. Nobody else from Duke got a rebound on either end of the floor in the last 5 minutes.

Bagley wasn't the problem with our rebounding last night.

[Kedsy]

Can someone produce a halftime box score so we can look at the data? I could not find one.

Here you go. Our OR% in the first half was 38.9%. Our DR% in the first half was 73.7%.

Thus in the second half, our OR% was 23.5% and our DR% was 46.4%. And that pretty much was the ballgame (along with our incredibly poor 3.1% TO% for the game).

It's all one one one, forcing guys to break someone down and make a play.

I agree we had some unsuccessful hero ball at the end. But we also assisted on 63.3% of our made baskets, so I'm not sure it was all one-on-one play.