2018 Masters collector thread

[JasonEvans]

Current Masters odds at the Westgate Sportsbook--

Tiger 8-1
Rory, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas 10-1
Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth 14-1
Jason Day, John Rahm 16-1
Phil, Ricky Fowler 18-1
Sergio 30-1

[OldPhiKap]

Current Masters odds at the Westgate Sportsbook--

Tiger 8-1
Rory, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas 10-1
Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth 14-1
Jason Day, John Rahm 16-1
Phil, Ricky Fowler 18-1
Sergio 30-1

I would take any of the 10-1 or 14-1 before I took Tiger. But having said that, I would expect Tiger to make the cut (half the field or within 10 shots of the leader after Friday) and anything can happen.

"The Masters doesn't start until the back nine on Sunday," after all.

[rthomas]

I would take any of the 10-1 or 14-1 before I took Tiger. But having said that, I would expect Tiger to make the cut (half the field or within 10 shots of the leader after Friday) and anything can happen.

"The Masters doesn't start until the back nine on Sunday," after all.

I would not take Jordan Spieth 14-1.

I don't really get the whole betting on golf. I would always bet against someone. I'll take the field over God.

[CDu]

I would put Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, or Jason Day as my guesses as to the favorites going into the Masters. But I wouldn't rule Tiger completely out. Golf results in an individual tournament can be so all over the map.

[Tripping William]

I would put Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, or Jason Day as my guesses as to the favorites going into the Masters. But I wouldn't rule Tiger completely out. Golf results in an individual tournament can be so all over the map.

Only if he wears appropriate footwear while descending the stairs . . . .

[OldPhiKap]

Only if he wears appropriate footwear while descending the stairs . . . .

Yeah, there were a lot of local stories about how that incident happened. But not one to spread rumors here . . . .

[Mal]

I would put Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, or Jason Day as my guesses as to the favorites going into the Masters. But I wouldn't rule Tiger completely out. Golf results in an individual tournament can be so all over the map.

Interesting choices, and all seem logical. I agree on McIlroy since he's the hot hand at the moment. Day's been a little up and down, although he looks like he's rounding back into form, so I could see it. He was so close a couple times early in his career there, but hasn't been a factor the last 3 or 4 years.

DJ, however, is a bit of a mystery right now. He's been awesome when he plays, but he's barely playing. A win to go with a 2nd place finish, a 7th place and a 16th, but only four competitive events since November. For a World No. 1, he's like a ghost. I'm going to wait and see how he does this week, I guess.

I was kind of joking with JE above, but I'd put Rose in my top 3 guesses right now. He's playing very well (four top 5's including a win, and another top 10, in his last 6 tournaments) and he's been really close a couple of times at Augusta. He'll hit lots of fairways and lots of greens and if his medium range putting is on he'll be a force to be reckoned with.

Darkhorse pick to be a factor, with no particular reasoning behind it at all other than gut: Rafael Cabrera-Bello.

Is it too early for a Masters thread?

[Tripping William]

Is it too early for a Masters thread?

I have actually been thinking of this, and am thinking that the best thing would be a single "2018 Golf Major Championships" thread. Keeps things fairly current and in one place.

Not too early to start in my book. I'll plan to launch tomorrow, absent strenuous objections.

[killerleft]

Interesting choices, and all seem logical. I agree on McIlroy since he's the hot hand at the moment. Day's been a little up and down, although he looks like he's rounding back into form, so I could see it. He was so close a couple times early in his career there, but hasn't been a factor the last 3 or 4 years.

DJ, however, is a bit of a mystery right now. He's been awesome when he plays, but he's barely playing. A win to go with a 2nd place finish, a 7th place and a 16th, but only four competitive events since November. For a World No. 1, he's like a ghost. I'm going to wait and see how he does this week, I guess.

I was kind of joking with JE above, but I'd put Rose in my top 3 guesses right now. He's playing very well (four top 5's including a win, and another top 10, in his last 6 tournaments) and he's been really close a couple of times at Augusta. He'll hit lots of fairways and lots of greens and if his medium range putting is on he'll be a force to be reckoned with.

Darkhorse pick to be a factor, with no particular reasoning behind it at all other than gut: Rafael Cabrera-Bello.

Is it too early for a Masters thread?

Evidently it is time. And it's time for somebody to acknowledge that Phil Mickelson might be a factor there. Phil has recently won against a field similar to the Masters, and has played quite well otherwise. And his putting is better than ever.

[mkirsh]

Is it too early for a Masters thread?

What about a Masters pool? We each pick 4 players, lowest combined score wins (people who miss the cut have their Thurs/Friday totals doubled). If you want to make it more challenging, you can only pick one player ranked in the top 10, one from 11-20, one from 21-30, and one from 31+. Any interest?

[cato]

Yeah, there were a lot of local stories about how that incident happened. But not one to spread rumors here . . . .

I only heard one, but I loved it and am treating it as gospel.

[jimsumner]

I would not take Jordan Spieth 14-1.

I don't really get the whole betting on golf. I would always bet against someone. I'll take the field over God.

That's because God can't hit a 1-iron.

[Troublemaker]

Current Masters odds at the Westgate Sportsbook--

Tiger 8-1
Rory, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas 10-1
Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth 14-1
Jason Day, John Rahm 16-1
Phil, Ricky Fowler 18-1
Sergio 30-1

At many offshore books (so not in Vegas), they will post head-to-head matchups for betting. So, for example: who will have the better score by the end of the tournament, Woods or Johnson? Woods or Rose? Etc.

It will be VERY interesting to see if the offshores align the head-to-head matchups with the futures market, i.e. make Woods the favorite head-to-head against these players. I suspect not because they would get a ton of sharp money on his opponents. What's funny is if the public pays attention, they'll see Woods being the favorite in futures and Woods being the underdog in head-to-heads, which basically screams "I should not bet Tiger to win the Masters at those paltry futures odds," but they'll do it anyway. The books love Tiger Woods.

[Mal]

What about a Masters pool? We each pick 4 players, lowest combined score wins (people who miss the cut have their Thurs/Friday totals doubled). If you want to make it more challenging, you can only pick one player ranked in the top 10, one from 11-20, one from 21-30, and one from 31+. Any interest?

Great idea. Someone can post the world rankings the Sunday before it starts, and folks can post their picks.

I'd suggest a couple further wrinkles to expand and avoid a lot of overlap:

Pick 6 players total
Maximum one Top 5
Maximum two Top 15
Maximum three Top 25 (alternatively, you could require that everyone's top 3 players have an aggregate ranking of at least 36 or something)
One player not named Tiger Woods must be outside the Top 50

[BD80]

I only heard one, but I loved it and am treating it as gospel.

Did it involve his wife Paulina? I'd be interested in hearing it!

[mr. synellinden]

Great idea. Someone can post the world rankings the Sunday before it starts, and folks can post their picks.

I'd suggest a couple further wrinkles to expand and avoid a lot of overlap:

Pick 6 players total
Maximum one Top 5
Maximum two Top 15
Maximum three Top 25 (alternatively, you could require that everyone's top 3 players have an aggregate ranking of at least 36 or something)
One player not named Tiger Woods must be outside the Top 50

Here's a slight variation on this format that I have been using for years with my friends - long before Daily Fantasy Sports came to be - that I'll throw out there if people want to use it.

You have 30 "points" to spend and can choose up to 10 players maximum (you can choose the same players as others so it's not a draft). Each player's "cost" is their Official World Golf Ranking points rounded down. So Dustin Johnson would cost 10, Justin Thomas 9, Spieth 8, etc. Any player whose OWGR points is below 2.00 costs 2 points. So Tiger would cost 2 points. As an example, I could make team of: DJ (10); Justin Rose (7); Mickelson (4); Patrick Reed (3); Shubhankar Sharma (2): Tiger Woods (2); and Bill Haas (2). Total cost = 30.

You are competing against others based on prize money won by your team. So I total all the prize money of my players (those who miss the cut obviously get 0) and the highest total wins.

[dudog84]

Here's a slight variation on this format that I have been using for years with my friends - long before Daily Fantasy Sports came to be - that I'll throw out there if people want to use it.

You have 30 "points" to spend and can choose up to 10 players maximum (you can choose the same players as others so it's not a draft). Each player's "cost" is their Official World Golf Ranking points rounded down. So Dustin Johnson would cost 10, Justin Thomas 9, Spieth 8, etc. Any player whose OWGR points is below 2.00 costs 2 points. So Tiger would cost 2 points. As an example, I could make team of: DJ (10); Justin Rose (7); Mickelson (4); Patrick Reed (3); Shubhankar Sharma (2): Tiger Woods (2); and Bill Haas (2). Total cost = 30.

You are competing against others based on prize money won by your team. So I total all the prize money of my players (those who miss the cut obviously get 0) and the highest total wins.

That's pretty cool. I think 30 is the perfect number, just enough to make you think, enough combinations to have a large group involved with very small chance for duplication (a draft limits participation). Did you guys start with 30 or evolve to it? Are you the one who devised it? Kudos to whoever.

[Tripping William]

Here's a slight variation on this format that I have been using for years with my friends - long before Daily Fantasy Sports came to be - that I'll throw out there if people want to use it.

You have 30 "points" to spend and can choose up to 10 players maximum (you can choose the same players as others so it's not a draft). Each player's "cost" is their Official World Golf Ranking points rounded down. So Dustin Johnson would cost 10, Justin Thomas 9, Spieth 8, etc. Any player whose OWGR points is below 2.00 costs 2 points. So Tiger would cost 2 points. As an example, I could make team of: DJ (10); Justin Rose (7); Mickelson (4); Patrick Reed (3); Shubhankar Sharma (2): Tiger Woods (2); and Bill Haas (2). Total cost = 30.

You are competing against others based on prize money won by your team. So I total all the prize money of my players (those who miss the cut obviously get 0) and the highest total wins.

That's pretty cool. I think 30 is the perfect number, just enough to make you think, enough combinations to have a large group involved with very small chance for duplication (a draft limits participation). Did you guys start with 30 or evolve to it? Are you the one who devised it? Kudos to whoever.

I like this format as well. Count me in, if this gains traction.

[mr. synellinden]

That's pretty cool. I think 30 is the perfect number, just enough to make you think, enough combinations to have a large group involved with very small chance for duplication (a draft limits participation). Did you guys start with 30 or evolve to it? Are you the one who devised it? Kudos to whoever.

I like this format as well. Count me in, if this gains traction.

Yes - I devised this about 8-10 years ago and my friends and I have used it for all the majors since then - also brought it to my office where people like the format as well. And it is essentially the model that is now used in daily fantasy sports (by the way, DraftKings was founded by a Duke grad). So we were ahead of the game. We started with 30 points, but started with rounding the OWGR ranking points up (so DJ would be worth - but people seemed confused by that so we switched to rounding down. The problem with that is anyone who is under 3.0 ends up costing the same as those who are much lower in the rankings. So for the PGA or US Open, for example, the local pros or qualifiers end up costing the same as someone like Keegan Bradley or Brandt Snedeker. Open to suggestions on adjusting that.

[JasonEvans]

I like this... fun.

But, we should all just start with 28 points and say that Tiger Woods is off limits because everyone is going to pick Tiger. At a 2 point cost, he is a lock to be picked by everyone. His World Golf Rankings doesn't even come close to reflecting his current value due to the long time off due to injury.

Maybe we could do something based on FedEx Cup rankings or current money list or something like that. Those would provide a better snapshot of current value than a metric that can be skewed by older results (or a lack of older results).

-Jason "I am going to take all this stuff and put it in a Master's thread... no reason to have it in the Tiger thread" Evans