2018 top movies of summer... early discussion

[JasonEvans]

Should we even bother including Infinity War?

https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/17/1...rse-box-office

Ticket presales running far ahead of Black Panther and Black Panther reportedly causing folks to get even more hyped for Infinity War.

Yeah, Infinity War is a mortal lock. A couple years back we did this in the Winter contest when The Force Awakens was coming out. We picked a top 6, rather than a top 5 because we all know TFA would be #1.

I already said we are going to do a top 3... maybe I will make it top 4. Or maybe I should just leave it alone as a Top 5. So we all get a layup with one of the top 5... big deal. It is like that most years anyway. I'm starting to be increasingly worried that Solo is going to be a steaming pile of goo and I'm hearing some sketchy things about Jurassic World too. Meanwhile, there is talk that if Ant Man follows on some themes and unanswered questions from Infinity War, it could be much bigger than expected.

Hmmmm.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Should we even bother including Infinity War?

https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/17/1...rse-box-office

Ticket presales running far ahead of Black Panther and Black Panther reportedly causing folks to get even more hyped for Infinity War.

I bet IW doesn't have the legs that BP does. I'd even be tempted to pie that. Fifth week at #1.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I bet IW doesn't have the legs that BP does. I'd even be tempted to pie that. Fifth week at #1.

Well, BP is going up against basically nothing right now. Summer audiences have new blockbusters every other week.

[JasonEvans]

I bet IW doesn't have the legs that BP does. I'd even be tempted to pie that. Fifth week at #1.

"Legs" is a tricky thing to define in terms of success. I mean, a film that makes $100 mil opening weekend and ends up making $300 mil had a 3x multiplier from opening weekend. A film that makes $10 mil opening weekend and makes $40 mil total had a 4x multiplier... which one had longer legs, the one that made 4x or the one that made $200 mil extra? It is easy to say a film that made middling numbers early on in its run but then held onto those numbers for a long time had long legs -- like The Greatest Showman (it was still doing $10+ mil weeks two months after it was released) -- but movies that open really big (over $100 mil) are tougher to define when it comes to legs.

I think IW will open bigger than BP ($202 mil), probably something in the $225-$150 mil kind of range (depending on how good the reviews are). I think it will do bigger weekly numbers for the first couple weeks and will have bigger weekly/weekend numbers than BP for the first three weeks of release. If it then ends up slowing down (compared to BP) once Deadpool 2 and Solo come out, but ends up making more money overall, which one had better legs? I agree there is no chance IW is the #1 movie at the boxoffice 5 weeks into its release, but given that Solo opens that weekend, that's sorta a silly measure of "legs."

-Jason "all that said, it is clear that BP has turned into a cultural phenomenon and even if IW is the fabulous success I expect it to be, it may not equal the boxoffice of Black Panther" Evans

[PackMan97]

-Jason "all that said, it is clear that BP has turned into a cultural phenomenon and even if IW is the fabulous success I expect it to be, it may not equal the boxoffice of Black Panther" Evans

If I were a betting man, I would put a pie on the line. But I'm not...so your pies are safe, Jason.

[NashvilleDevil]

Yeah, Infinity War is a mortal lock. A couple years back we did this in the Winter contest when The Force Awakens was coming out. We picked a top 6, rather than a top 5 because we all know TFA would be #1.

I already said we are going to do a top 3... maybe I will make it top 4. Or maybe I should just leave it alone as a Top 5. So we all get a layup with one of the top 5... big deal. It is like that most years anyway. I'm starting to be increasingly worried that Solo is going to be a steaming pile of goo and I'm hearing some sketchy things about Jurassic World too. Meanwhile, there is talk that if Ant Man follows on some themes and unanswered questions from Infinity War, it could be much bigger than expected.

Hmmmm.

Why mess with perfection? Keep it a top 5. There will be a crowd at 4 and 5 like there is most summers.

[JasonEvans]

Why mess with perfection? Keep it a top 5. There will be a crowd at 4 and 5 like there is most summers.

Well, the reason behind doing only a top 3 or a top 4 was that there appear to be 5 films that are a lock to make a lot more than everyone else. Picking those 5 against the field is sorta easy. Picking only 3 or 4 of them would be a good bit harder.

I won't be all that surprised if film #6 (likely Ant Man & the Wasp) is $75-100 million shy of Avengers 3, Deadpool 2, Solo, Incredibles 2, and Jurassic 2/5/whatever.

-Jason "OTOH, maybe all of us who have never gone 5-for-5 would enjoy getting a layup win... hmmmm" Evans

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

What about a top five with a guess on the total box office of Rampage as a tie breaker?

[luburch]

Top 5 and order of finish, perhaps?

[LasVegas]

Well, the reason behind doing only a top 3 or a top 4 was that there appear to be 5 films that are a lock to make a lot more than everyone else. Picking those 5 against the field is sorta easy. Picking only 3 or 4 of them would be a good bit harder.

I won't be all that surprised if film #6 (likely Ant Man & the Wasp) is $75-100 million shy of Avengers 3, Deadpool 2, Solo, Incredibles 2, and Jurassic 2/5/whatever.

-Jason "OTOH, maybe all of us who have never gone 5-for-5 would enjoy getting a layup win... hmmmm" Evans

I think Incredibles 2 and ant man/wasp COULD be close. The other 4 are absolute, 100% locks though.