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  1. #1
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    2018 top movies of summer... early discussion

    By the way, not to predict things too early, but I think there will be 5 films that make $300+ million this summer and we will have at least 10 people go 5-for-5 in the summer contest... maybe more. This summer is a huge layup with 5 movies that are each a mortal lock to do huge business (all 5 are sequels of movies that made well over $250 mil. when they first came out).
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    By the way, not to predict things too early, but I think there will be 5 films that make $300+ million this summer and we will have at least 10 people go 5-for-5 in the summer contest... maybe more. This summer is a huge layup with 5 movies that are each a mortal lock to do huge business (all 5 are sequels of movies that made well over $250 mil. when they first came out).
    Sounds like predicting the order of finish is the way to go.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    Sounds like predicting the order of finish is the way to go.
    Hmmmm... I would be interested in trying that, but it seems like it would be very cumbersome. It would require folks to both vote in the poll and post their picks to the thread and then someone (me?? brevity??) would have to compile all those posts to see who got things the most right.

    And how would we judge the winner? Let's say someone got #1 and #2 in place, but someone else got #3, #4, and #5 right in their spots... who did better? Is getting #1 the most important thing or is getting the most right the most important?

    I feel like this is opening a can of worms and complicating what is otherwise a simple process.

    -Jason "and, the more I think about it, the more possible it is that Ready Player One or something else is really great and finds a way to knock off one of the 5 sequels (Solo, Avengers, Deadpool, Jurassic, and Incredibles)" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Hmmmm... I would be interested in trying that, but it seems like it would be very cumbersome. It would require folks to both vote in the poll and post their picks to the thread and then someone (me?? brevity??) would have to compile all those posts to see who got things the most right.

    And how would we judge the winner? Let's say someone got #1 and #2 in place, but someone else got #3, #4, and #5 right in their spots... who did better? Is getting #1 the most important thing or is getting the most right the most important?

    I feel like this is opening a can of worms and complicating what is otherwise a simple process.

    -Jason "and, the more I think about it, the more possible it is that Ready Player One or something else is really great and finds a way to knock off one of the 5 sequels (Solo, Avengers, Deadpool, Jurassic, and Incredibles)" Evans
    No need to have one person compile posts. Just have each person who goes 5 for 5 (if any) post their own results.

    But yeah, people will have to specific order in their initia post.

    As for score, maybe award points for each correctly slotted choice? 5 points for first, 4 points for second, etc.
    Carolina delenda est

  5. #5
    All sequels? I got it!

    MI 6
    The Predator
    Sicario 2
    Mama Mia 2
    Ocean’s 8

    I win, right? You can’t tell me Equalizer 2 or The Purge Island will beat out those five locks!

  6. #6
    Seriously though. You think Solo will be top 5 with all the horrible things they’re saying about it? Antman can’t knock it off?

    I wish they’d go back to the drawing board, delay it a couple years, and do it right. Disney can afford it.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I feel like this is opening a can of worms and complicating what is otherwise a simple process.
    Umm, Jason, it's this about 80% of what we do here on DBR anyway?

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by bjornolf View Post
    Seriously though. You think Solo will be top 5 with all the horrible things they’re saying about it? Antman can’t knock it off?

    I wish they’d go back to the drawing board, delay it a couple years, and do it right. Disney can afford it.
    I was gonna say... Solo's buzz varies from "horrible" to "radio silence." Certainly we could be surprised, but I would suggest it has potential to break either way and make the contest interesting.

    What would be "disappointing" box office for a Star War? $500 million? $300 million?

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I was gonna say... Solo's buzz varies from "horrible" to "radio silence." Certainly we could be surprised, but I would suggest it has potential to break either way and make the contest interesting.

    What would be "disappointing" box office for a Star War? $500 million? $300 million?
    At what point does Disney over saturate the market with mediocre star wars films to the point people start to get turned off from it? I had a feeling this would happen as soon as I heard Disney bought lucas films. Pump them out as fast as possible, make the money, who cares about how good they are. Star wars is becoming the new transformers.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    At what point does Disney over saturate the market with mediocre star wars films to the point people start to get turned off from it? I had a feeling this would happen as soon as I heard Disney bought lucas films. Pump them out as fast as possible, make the money, who cares about how good they are. Star wars is becoming the new transformers.
    The first 3 Disney efforts have been far better than Episodes 1-3.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    At what point does Disney over saturate the market with mediocre star wars films to the point people start to get turned off from it? I had a feeling this would happen as soon as I heard Disney bought lucas films. Pump them out as fast as possible, make the money, who cares about how good they are. Star wars is becoming the new transformers.
    I see no evidence of this, especially not of becoming the new Transformers. The Force Awakes was decent, The Last Jedi was much better than that and Rogue One was very excellent.

    Star Wars is the best grossing franchise in the world. Only the recent Batman comes close, as does Jurassic Park series. Avatar might rival it. The Avengers comes pretty close, but still falls short. There is no evidence that they are just churning them out for the quick buck. I would say Rogue One killing off the ENTIRE cast basically put an end to that. Besides, commercial tie-ins, toys, games and other marketing is all part of the modern big budget movie. Disney is doing nothing different than Marvel will with the Avengers this sumer. Oh wait, Disney owns Marvel

    Granted, I think the MCU movies are far better on average, but they don't gross as much.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    By the way, not to predict things too early, but I think there will be 5 films that make $300+ million this summer and we will have at least 10 people go 5-for-5 in the summer contest... maybe more. This summer is a huge layup with 5 movies that are each a mortal lock to do huge business (all 5 are sequels of movies that made well over $250 mil. when they first came out).
    Your analysis is hard to beat, especially with Ready Player One's early release of Marvh 30. It's the only one I see that might be able to challenge that $300 million limit.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Your analysis is hard to beat, especially with Ready Player One's early release of Marvh 30. It's the only one I see that might be able to challenge that $300 million limit.
    Crud, I forgot that Ready Player One isn't even a summer release so it is not in our contest. Sigh... this is going to be one dull summer.

    And for the folks who think the suckitude of Solo might hurt boxoffice, I merely remind you that The Phantom Menace made $431 mil and Attack of the Clones made $300+ mil... 15 years ago! Inflation adjusted, those two are both $500 mil films. If Solo is terrible, like borderline unwatchable, it will still make $350+ mil.

    Sigh...

    -Jason "I'm sorta leaning toward picking your top 5 order... would love some more opinions" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Crud, I forgot that Ready Player One isn't even a summer release so it is not in our contest. Sigh... this is going to be one dull summer.

    And for the folks who think the suckitude of Solo might hurt boxoffice, I merely remind you that The Phantom Menace made $431 mil and Attack of the Clones made $300+ mil... 15 years ago! Inflation adjusted, those two are both $500 mil films. If Solo is terrible, like borderline unwatchable, it will still make $350+ mil.

    Sigh...

    -Jason "I'm sorta leaning toward picking your top 5 order... would love some more opinions" Evans
    Jason,

    At least DC is starting to be punished for putting out poor movies. There is some hope that Star Wars will eventually be punished...the problem is that the movies are still darned good, even if they aren't as good as some of us that grew up with the original trilogy might like

    They would have to put out a lot of suck in order to make a difference.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Crud, I forgot that Ready Player One isn't even a summer release so it is not in our contest. Sigh... this is going to be one dull summer.

    And for the folks who think the suckitude of Solo might hurt boxoffice, I merely remind you that The Phantom Menace made $431 mil and Attack of the Clones made $300+ mil... 15 years ago! Inflation adjusted, those two are both $500 mil films. If Solo is terrible, like borderline unwatchable, it will still make $350+ mil.

    Sigh...

    -Jason "I'm sorta leaning toward picking your top 5 order... would love some more opinions" Evans
    Didn't you do a "top 6" one time?
    Would that be a possibility?
    Or maybe a "top 4?"

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    And for the folks who think the suckitude of Solo might hurt boxoffice, I merely remind you that The Phantom Menace made $431 mil and Attack of the Clones made $300+ mil... 15 years ago! Inflation adjusted, those two are both $500 mil films. If Solo is terrible, like borderline unwatchable, it will still make $350+ mil.
    There was also many years of anticipation for TPM, and a couple years for AOTC. We just got a solid Star Wars movie a month ago, so it's not like people will be like "I've waited so long for this!" I think that will affect box office numbers. Especially if critics pan it.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I see no evidence of this, especially not of becoming the new Transformers. The Force Awakes was decent, The Last Jedi was much better than that and Rogue One was very excellent.

    Star Wars is the best grossing franchise in the world. Only the recent Batman comes close, as does Jurassic Park series. Avatar might rival it. The Avengers comes pretty close, but still falls short. There is no evidence that they are just churning them out for the quick buck. I would say Rogue One killing off the ENTIRE cast basically put an end to that. Besides, commercial tie-ins, toys, games and other marketing is all part of the modern big budget movie. Disney is doing nothing different than Marvel will with the Avengers this sumer. Oh wait, Disney owns Marvel

    Granted, I think the MCU movies are far better on average, but they don't gross as much.
    The first 6 Star Wars films were released in trilogy's spanning almost 30 years. When Disney announced it was buying Lucas films, they soon announced plans to release 6 films in five years. Another trilogy and 3 stand alone films. That's some pretty serious "pumping them out".

    And as far as the quality of the Disney ones that have been released so far, I'm just going off of word of mouth of what I hear and read. I have several friends and family members that are star wars fanatics. I'm talking the "dress up as obi wan for the movie premiere" fanatics. They all liked The Force Awakens for the most part. Rogue One had them defending the series a little, and not one of them liked The Last Jedi. Throw in the much alluded to disaster that Solo is predicted to be, and you have a downward trend. Sure, they'll still make tons of money, but that doesn't mean they're good movies, kinda like Transformers.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by 94duke View Post
    Didn't you do a "top 6" one time?
    Would that be a possibility?
    Or maybe a "top 4?"
    Yeah, we did a top 6 the winter where Force Awakens opened. Hmm, a top 4 or -- even more challenging -- top 3 might be interesting and would be really difficult. I'm so glad I asked for more input and feedback. I'm loving the idea of a top 3.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  19. #19
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    Avengers: Infinity War
    Deadpool 2
    Solo: A Star Wars Movie
    (That's just May)

    Jurassic World 2
    Incredibles 2
    Oceans 8 (I won't be voting for it, but it will make $)
    (That's June)

    MI6
    Ant-Man/Wasp
    Alita: Battle Angel (lots of people I know are geeking out over this)
    (That's July)

    The Predator (If it's good, it will cash in)
    The Meg (sounds stupid, but it has Jason Statham)
    (That's August)

    Hell, 4 of my top 5 are very likely to be super hero movies. Trying to figure out why folks think that picking a top 5 out of that group is going to be easy, and it doesn't include the random "come outta nowhere" movie, which I could make one or two guesses for.

    Oh...I forgot one more.
    Barbie!!! Like, hell yeah! Total top 5 lock there.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    The first 6 Star Wars films were released in trilogy's spanning almost 30 years. When Disney announced it was buying Lucas films, they soon announced plans to release 6 films in five years. Another trilogy and 3 stand alone films. That's some pretty serious "pumping them out".
    This would be comparable to the Avengers and movies of the individual superheroes.

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