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  1. #1

    MBB: Duke vs. Miami (Mon 1/15, 7:00 p.m. EST, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

    Sandwiched between home-and-home games between Pitt and Wake Forest, Duke travels to Coral Gables, Florida to take on the reeling Miami Hurricanes on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Miami was ranked as high as 6th in the AP poll earlier this season but has dropped 2 of its last 3 games in conference, including at Clemson on Saturday.

    History of the Matchup
    The Hurricanes have won 3 of the past 4 matchups against the Blue Devils, including the previous two games in Florida. From the time that Miami joined the ACC in the 2004-05 season, Duke dominated the matchup, going 11-1 through the 2010-11 season. Since then, the tide has turned and Miami owns a 5-3 record versus Duke in the past 8 matchups. The last time Duke won at Miami was in 2014 when Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood combined for 29 points and 21 rebounds against a 10-8 Miami team that failed to make any postseason tournament that season.

    Scouting Report
    The Hurricanes are an elite defensive team featuring a 4 guard lineup around sophomore 6'11" forward Dewan Huell. The Hurricanes feature the 8th most efficient defense (KenPom). Huell, a Miami native, is averaging a team-best 13.6 pts per game. When Huell isn't in the game, Miami will play the slim 6'10" junior center Ebuka Izundu. The strength of the team lies with its collection of talented guards. Headlining the group is sophomore Bruce Brown. The 6'5" guard is the team's leading rebounder (7.1 per game) and dishes out the most assists (3.9 per game) to go along with his 11.3 pts per game. Brown torched the Blue Devils last season to the tune of 25 points in a 55-50 win. He's a very physical guard that excels in using his body to get to the hoop. He appears on many draft boards this season, although his shot has curiously regressed from deep (26.7%) and the free throw line (62.5%). In addition to Brown, Miami also brings highly athletic freshman Lonnie Walker off the bench. Walker is also a first round NBA draft prospect, although he has had an inconsistent year and has similar shooting numbers to Brown. The two of them can make the highlight plays but have not shot the ball well enough to carry the offense this season.

    In addition to Brown and Walker, Miami has received comparable scoring contributions from guards Dejan Vasiljevic, Ja'Quan Newton, Anthony Lawrence, Jr., and the diminutive (5'7") Chris Lykes. Lawrence, Jr. is 6'7" and is the best three point shooter on the team at 43.6%. Lykes is also pretty deadly from the perimeter. Newton's shot has regressed in his four years in college and he rarely takes or makes a shot from outside anymore. With the exception of Lykes, all of the Miami guards shoot the ball well inside the arc, at 50% or better. Cutting under screens for Brown, Walker, and Newton would be advisable to limit drives to the hoop. For all of its athletic guards, the Hurricanes run a pretty poor offense. The team struggles to score and plays at a slow pace. So far this season, Miami has played these 8 men in the rotation.

    Where Miami hangs it's hat is on the defensive side of things. Teams struggle to shoot against them. Opponents this season have shot just 28.5% from 3 on the season (4th best in the country) and 41.7% inside the arc (6th). In case you were wondering if that was a fluke and they've just played poor shooting teams, opponents have made 76.2% of free throws, 344th worst "free throw defense" in the nation. Opponents must be relived they don't have a Miami guard in their face when they are shooting for once. Taking free throws against Miami is a fairly rare occurrence, though. They are top 10 in the nation in opponents free throws attempts. I shudder to think what a Miami-Virginia game would look like.

    The Matchup
    Duke is going to have a serious size advantage and mismatch at the 4-spot. Not that anyone has figured out how to guard Marvin Bagley III this season, but Miami will have to do something to limit the 6'11" forward. I'm assuming Anthony Lawrence, Jr. will start off defending MBIII while Huell will get Wendell Carter, Jr. Getting Huell into foul trouble would go a long way to opening up the interior offense. Miami isn't much of a rebounding team, so even missed shots could create opportunities. Other than that, Miami's guards match up pretty well against Duke's. I expect suffocating pressure and difficult entry passes.

    Part of the reason why I wasn't surprised to see Duke play zone so much against Wake Forest is that Miami appears to be that exact type of team that would struggle against it. They have not shot well this season and are not a particularly good free-throw shooting team, either. Nor is Miami a good offensive rebounding team. Duke's length and size will make it difficult to get into the paint, where Miami's guards want to be. If Duke can get some efficient offensive play this season, which they've done basically every game all year, then making this a half-court Miami offense will limit opportunities. I'd hate to see Miami start forcing turnovers or taking a long rebound and turning it into a run out for a transition dunk. If Duke is smart with the basketball and plays inside out, they can force a struggling Miami team to attempt bad shots.

    I think it will be a close game and hope that Duke uses its advantages to turn the tide against Miami. Duke hasn't faced this good of a team in a true road game so far this season. Let's see if they can respond and play with poise. Let's go Duke!

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Miami owns a 5-3 record versus Duke in the past 8 matchups.
    Since Jim Larranaga has been Miami's coach Duke has:

    2017: won 70-58, lost 55-50
    2016: lost 80-69
    2015: lost 90-74
    2014: won 67-46
    2013: lost 90-63, won 79-76
    2012: lost 78-74 (OT)
    Bob Green

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Sandwiched between home-and-home games between Pitt and Wake Forest, Duke travels to Coral Gables, Florida to take on the reeling Miami Hurricanes on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Miami was ranked as high as 6th in the AP poll earlier this season but has dropped 2 of its last 3 games in conference, including at Clemson on Saturday.

    History of the Matchup
    The Hurricanes have won 3 of the past 4 matchups against the Blue Devils, including the previous two games in Florida. From the time that Miami joined the ACC in the 2004-05 season, Duke dominated the matchup, going 11-1 through the 2010-11 season. Since then, the tide has turned and Miami owns a 5-3 record versus Duke in the past 8 matchups. The last time Duke won at Miami was in 2014 when Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood combined for 29 points and 21 rebounds against a 10-8 Miami team that failed to make any postseason tournament that season.

    Scouting Report
    The Hurricanes are an elite defensive team featuring a 4 guard lineup around sophomore 6'11" forward Dewan Huell. The Hurricanes feature the 8th most efficient defense (KenPom). Huell, a Miami native, is averaging a team-best 13.6 pts per game. When Huell isn't in the game, Miami will play the slim 6'10" junior center Ebuka Izundu. The strength of the team lies with its collection of talented guards. Headlining the group is sophomore Bruce Brown. The 6'5" guard is the team's leading rebounder (7.1 per game) and dishes out the most assists (3.9 per game) to go along with his 11.3 pts per game. Brown torched the Blue Devils last season to the tune of 25 points in a 55-50 win. He's a very physical guard that excels in using his body to get to the hoop. He appears on many draft boards this season, although his shot has curiously regressed from deep (26.7%) and the free throw line (62.5%). In addition to Brown, Miami also brings highly athletic freshman Lonnie Walker off the bench. Walker is also a first round NBA draft prospect, although he has had an inconsistent year and has similar shooting numbers to Brown. The two of them can make the highlight plays but have not shot the ball well enough to carry the offense this season.

    In addition to Brown and Walker, Miami has received comparable scoring contributions from guards Dejan Vasiljevic, Ja'Quan Newton, Anthony Lawrence, Jr., and the diminutive (5'7") Chris Lykes. Lawrence, Jr. is 6'7" and is the best three point shooter on the team at 43.6%. Lykes is also pretty deadly from the perimeter. Newton's shot has regressed in his four years in college and he rarely takes or makes a shot from outside anymore. With the exception of Lykes, all of the Miami guards shoot the ball well inside the arc, at 50% or better. Cutting under screens for Brown, Walker, and Newton would be advisable to limit drives to the hoop. For all of its athletic guards, the Hurricanes run a pretty poor offense. The team struggles to score and plays at a slow pace. So far this season, Miami has played these 8 men in the rotation.

    Where Miami hangs it's hat is on the defensive side of things. Teams struggle to shoot against them. Opponents this season have shot just 28.5% from 3 on the season (4th best in the country) and 41.7% inside the arc (6th). In case you were wondering if that was a fluke and they've just played poor shooting teams, opponents have made 76.2% of free throws, 344th worst "free throw defense" in the nation. Opponents must be relived they don't have a Miami guard in their face when they are shooting for once. Taking free throws against Miami is a fairly rare occurrence, though. They are top 10 in the nation in opponents free throws attempts. I shudder to think what a Miami-Virginia game would look like.

    The Matchup
    Duke is going to have a serious size advantage and mismatch at the 4-spot. Not that anyone has figured out how to guard Marvin Bagley III this season, but Miami will have to do something to limit the 6'11" forward. I'm assuming Anthony Lawrence, Jr. will start off defending MBIII while Huell will get Wendell Carter, Jr. Getting Huell into foul trouble would go a long way to opening up the interior offense. Miami isn't much of a rebounding team, so even missed shots could create opportunities. Other than that, Miami's guards match up pretty well against Duke's. I expect suffocating pressure and difficult entry passes.

    Part of the reason why I wasn't surprised to see Duke play zone so much against Wake Forest is that Miami appears to be that exact type of team that would struggle against it. They have not shot well this season and are not a particularly good free-throw shooting team, either. Nor is Miami a good offensive rebounding team. Duke's length and size will make it difficult to get into the paint, where Miami's guards want to be. If Duke can get some efficient offensive play this season, which they've done basically every game all year, then making this a half-court Miami offense will limit opportunities. I'd hate to see Miami start forcing turnovers or taking a long rebound and turning it into a run out for a transition dunk. If Duke is smart with the basketball and plays inside out, they can force a struggling Miami team to attempt bad shots.

    I think it will be a close game and hope that Duke uses its advantages to turn the tide against Miami. Duke hasn't faced this good of a team in a true road game so far this season. Let's see if they can respond and play with poise. Let's go Duke!
    A huge early season test for this team. Miami is a tough road trip and the team has some sort of bug going around. Miami can score from deep and has a guard heavy lineup that has given Duke fits all year. Their general offense has struggled but Duke seems to be just thing to help struggling offenses of late. In some ways playing AOC, Goldwire and White has helped a bit on the defensive end- at least to spell the guards and give a different look. They will have a hard time stopping Bagley but if Allen continues to struggle to score (and he really needs to be closer to 20 than 5)- it will be at a minimum - a close game- and at worse, one where Miami holds a 6-10 point lead most of the game. Someone other than Bagley will need a big game. I am a bit worried that Trent is under the weather and will not repeat that performance from Saturday. Outside scoring is important. It will probably come down to execution in that last few minutes.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC

    Scouting Report for Miami

    The Hurricanes were expected by many to be a breakout candidate this year. So far, though, it hasn't quite materialized as such. That's not to say that Miami isn't good. They are. Just that they've had their share of speed bumps this season. After going largely untested out of conference (their best win is over Minnesota, who is looking very shaky at the moment, and they lost to New Mexico St), they've sputtered to a 2-2 start in conference including a loss to Georgia Tech. They play at a methodical pace (not UVa slow, but below-average pace), and they play extremely good defense. But they are sort of the foil to us: very mediocre offensively, elite defensively. Should be an interesting matchup. Wish it was at home.

    Centers: Dewan Huell (6'11", 220lb sophomore) is their center and leading scorer. Huell has developed quite nicely after a quite freshman year, and is a very effective weapon for them on the blocks. He is also not a bad free throw shooter (70%) for a big man. Huell doesn't rebound a ton, but isn't a liability there either. Solid athlete, someone we'll have to pay attention to off the ball. Behind Huell, Ebuka Izundu (6'10", 230lb junior) is the backup center. Izundu is very raw offensively, but also offers good size and athleticism. He only plays about 15 mpg, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more minutes for him in this one.

    Forwards: Anthony Lawrence II (6'7", 210lb junior) is the nominal PF for the team, and is a true stretch-4. He shoots 43.6% from 3pt range, so it is very important we not lose track of him. He's one of the three good shooters on the team. Aside from that, the Canes don't really have size. Everyone else is a wing or guard. Lots of small ball, although their smalls are really physical and athletic.

    Wings: Bruce Brown Jr (6'5", 190lb sophomore) is the headliner. Brown is in a lot of ways like a Justise Winslow: strong, athletic, does a lot of things well. He's a terrific rebounder for a wing (leads the team in boards), and is an outstanding defender. He's not, however, a great outside shooter. Brown is a fearless, aggressive player though, and very capable off the dribble. He's a tough guy to guard, especially when he feels confident. That said, his offense hasn't progressed quite as much as hoped, which is a big part of why the Canes haven't ascended as much this year. Still, a VERY good player, and one who will get drafted someday. Alongside Brown, Lonnie Walker IV (6'4", 200lb freshman) appears to be finally emerging as the other wing. Walker is strong and athletic, but struggles with his decision making and ballhandling in the half court setting. Walker is also a really inconsistent shooter. His athleticism and strength make him dangerous though, combined with his aggressive style on offense. The third wing for Miami is Dejan Vasiljevic (6'3", 200lb sophomore from Australia), a pure shooter. Vasiljevic is a fire hydrant of a wing, but really doesn't use that strength at all. Over 2/3 of his shots are 3pt shots. He's very good both from distance and at the foul line (92%). Pretty much the one guy you DON'T want to foul, nor should he be left open from 3.

    Guards: Ja'Quan Newton (6'2", 185lb senior) is the starting PG. Newton had a terrific sophomore year as a 6th man, and had a bit of a breakout last year as a starter. But he hasn't managed to put it together as a PG. He's more of a sparkplug scorer off the dribble than a playmaker for others, and his lack of PG instincts have also hurt the team's offense. Newton is not a bad physical comp for Trevon Duval, though he isn't nearly the PG that Duval is. Still, his ability to get into the lane and make contested shots makes him a dangerous scoring threat. Not much of a 3pt shooter at all though. Behind (and often beside) Newton is the diminutive Chris Likes (5'7", 160lb freshman). Lykes is what Newton was a few years ago: a terrific offensive spark plug off the bench. He is a shotmaker, and shoots over 40% from 3pt range. Not as effective inside, but capable of hitting clever shots when he can work around the defense.

    Miami will play suffocating defense, with lots of physicality. It's something that Bagley hasn't responded great to so far, so that will be an interesting test. They are disorganized on the other end though, and it shows. They have great athleticism across the court, and some good individual players offensively, but it hasn't amounted to an effective team offense. I wouldn't mind seeing us go with the zone, as I think playing man against their aggressive guards is a dangerous proposition.

    We haven't had much success against Miami recently. Getting a win in Coral Gables would be a huge step forward for this young team.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Since Jim Larranaga has been Miami's coach Duke has:

    2017: won 70-58, lost 55-50
    2016: lost 80-69
    2015: lost 90-74
    2014: won 67-46
    2013: lost 90-63, won 79-76
    2012: lost 78-74 (OT)
    And after 5 ACC games, our 1st against a team in the top half of conference (and Miami is marginally top half IMO). Winning this game will be huge.

  6. #6
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    Feb 2013
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    Las Vegas, Nevada
    DBA and CDu: Sporks for those excellent scouting reports. Thanks for taking the time, gents.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by arnie View Post
    And after 5 ACC games, our 1st against a team in the top half of conference (and Miami is marginally top half IMO). Winning this game will be huge.
    To that end, it would be miserable to have 3 conference losses with where we are with the schedule - and more importantly where we have to go (albeit a schedule not near as tough as in years past).

    Makes this a pretty important one. And it's proven no easy place for us to play, quick turnaround, long trip, flu bug, injuries...

  8. #8
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The Hurricanes were expected by many to be a breakout candidate this year. So far, though, it hasn't quite materialized as such. That's not to say that Miami isn't good. They are. Just that they've had their share of speed bumps this season. After going largely untested out of conference (their best win is over Minnesota, who is looking very shaky at the moment, and they lost to New Mexico St), they've sputtered to a 2-2 start in conference including a loss to Georgia Tech. They play at a methodical pace (not UVa slow, but below-average pace), and they play extremely good defense. But they are sort of the foil to us: very mediocre offensively, elite defensively. Should be an interesting matchup.
    I'd obviously like to face a very mediocre offense, very mediocre defense, but this is a good match-up for Duke. I don't like the elite offensive teams.

    This team is the opposite of Duke. I'm expecting a great, fun game.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    Cary, NC
    Any word if Bolden or Javin will be available?
       

  10. #10

    GA at point?

    Anyone else feeling we look more in sync on offense with GA at the point? I realize everyone is focusing on firming up the D, but just an observation.

  11. #11
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    Dec 2007
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    Cary, NC
    Blue Devil Nation tweeted that Coach K is expected to be back for tonight. Good news there.
       

  12. #12
    Duke Instagram showed K being interviewed by A-Rod so I’m hoping that’s more evidence he’s feeling ok.
       

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by ingrjc1 View Post
    Anyone else feeling we look more in sync on offense with GA at the point? I realize everyone is focusing on firming up the D, but just an observation.
    I wouldn't go that far but I do think GA has proven himself capable of running the point for stretches. He's a good and willing distributor who doesn't make a lot of mistakes. I thought his play at the point was a big factor in the comeback vs Texas. It's nice to have options.

  14. #14
    Join Date
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    Vermont
    If we overplay them and send our bigs on numerous hedging missions, I see another Miami layup line.
    Hopefully we stay back and make them shoot the ball to beat us...

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    If we overplay them and send our bigs on numerous hedging missions, I see another Miami layup line.
    Hopefully we stay back and make them shoot the ball to beat us...
    In which case I would hope we’d see the zone. If they’re gonna pick n roll and we’re not gonna hedge, there’s little point in playing m2m.
    “Coach said no 3s.” - Zion on The Block

  16. #16
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    Nice scouting reports. Thanks!

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    I wouldn't go that far but I do think GA has proven himself capable of running the point for stretches. He's a good and willing distributor who doesn't make a lot of mistakes. I thought his play at the point was a big factor in the comeback vs Texas. It's nice to have options.
    I think he's a great option to spell Tre (or do we call him Tra now? or do we still spell it Tre but pronounce it "Tra"?? Or maybe start something new and refer to him as Von???), but I think that we're going to need the ball pressure and athleticism that Tre brings to the defensive end (not to say GA isn't athletic, because he's a freak) against Miami's guards. I'd expect to see a lot of our starters tonight with Goldwire being first guard off the bench, unless Javin is ready to roll and we go GA-GTJr-Jav-MBIII-WCJr when Tre isn't in the game.

    Any word on if Gary is feeling better?

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by thedukelamere View Post
    ...(or do we call him Tra now? or do we still spell it Tre but pronounce it "Tra"?? Or maybe start something new and refer to him as Von???)...
    The easiest option is to refer to him as #1.
    Bob Green

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by ingrjc1 View Post
    Anyone else feeling we look more in sync on offense with GA at the point? I realize everyone is focusing on firming up the D, but just an observation.
    I feel like our best lineup may be to trade Duval out for O’Connell and have Grayson run point.
       

  20. #20
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    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    I feel like our best lineup may be to trade Duval out for O’Connell and have Grayson run point.
    Bagley Carter Trent Allen Duval 157 04:00:23 26.1 69
    Bagley Carter Trent O’Connell Allen 32 00:22:55 55.9 11

    not a bad intuition by the numbers, but the former has played far more minutes against difficult opponents than the latter, but even against wake, the o'connell lineup was significantly better.

    At this point I won't say that it's "better" since there are a host of confounding factors, and plus-minus is ehhhhh...but I will say that if that lineup continues to have success, I hope we see more of it.
    1200. DDMF.

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