MBB: Duke vs Wake Forest (Sat, 1/13, noon, ACCNtwk) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

Duke hosts Wake Forest this Saturday at noon in Cameron.

[UrinalCake]

Let’s keep this train rolling!

[kako]

Unfortunately Wake isn't all that much more of a test than Pitt at this point. Losses to Liberty and Drake aren't exactly losing to Wagner (9F), but they are bad losses. More was expected from Wake. Probably just more time for Duke to work on their defense in the safe confines of Cameron.

[chrishoke]

WF is a lot better than Pitt.

[CDu]

WF is a lot better than Pitt.

Agreed. Wake has at least won a game against a Power-5 school this year. And arguably has some NBA talent as well. And way more experience.

[uh_no]

WF is a lot better than Pitt.

and it's almost entirely on the offensive end. defenses are ranked nearly identically. should be a good test.

[DavidBenAkiva]

For a team featuring a lot of juniors and seniors, Wake Forest is having a tough year. They enter the matchup against Duke at 8-8, having lost 4 of their last 5 games. The team really, really struggles to defend. Their most glaring weakness come from the 3-point line, where they have allowed 39.2% shooting from beyond the arc, good for 323rd in the nation (out of 351 teams). Grayson and Gary getting hot from 3 point range would go a long way towards dumping the Demon Deacons.

The only defensive shooting statistic where the Deacons are inside the top 100 is opponents 2P%, where they allow 46.0% shooting. Some of that is due to the presence 7'1" junior Doral Moore. Moore enrolled at Wake Forest as the highest rated recruit in a talented class that also featured John Collins, lately of the Atlanta Hawks. Now that both Collins and Konstantinos Mitoglou have left, the latter after graduating from Wake Forest, Moore is the anchor for what otherwise would be an undersized team. Of the top 6 scorers for Wake, Moore is the only one taller than 6'5" in height. There are other forwards on the roster, including 7' freshman Oliver Sarr of France. But almost all the shots are being hoisted by the 5 primary guards, Moore, and starting forward Terrence Thompson. Thompson will likely get the first crack at guarding Marvin Bagley III. The senior forward is a native of Durham, NC. He's fairly nondescript from an analytical perspective, not a particularly poor or great player at any aspect of the game. Clearly, this Wake Forest team misses Collins in the Power Forward position.

On the offensive side of things, Wake is well above average. They shoot the ball well, averaging 39.5% on the season as a team, which is 26th in the nation. They have 5 guards that shoot the three with accuracy and regularity, including lead point guard and junior Bryant Crawford. Senior guard Mitchell Wilbekin is particularly accurate from 3, hitting 45.6% of his attempts so far this season. Wilbekin take nearly twice as many shots from beyond the arc than inside the 3-point line whereas his teammates seem just as comfortable - though often less successful - shooting inside the arc. Only a handful of Wake Forest players are efficient inside the arc, most notable center Doral Moore (72.8% 2P%) and 6'8" reserve sophomore forward Donovan Mitchell (61.1%).

One area where Wake really struggles is holding onto the ball. They average 13.6 turnovers a game, good for 189th in the country. A lot of that blame falls on lead point guard Crawford, who is giving up the ball an average of 3.4 times per game. Crawford is having a bit of a down year after a pretty good sophomore campaign. His 3-point shooting has improved and he's lights out from the free throw line (90.5%), but his rebounds, assists, turnovers, and scoring have all sagged a little from last year. He's getting far more attention from opposing defenses and not handling it particularly well. Fellow junior Keyshawn Woods has much the same story. He's scoring more than he was a year ago, but his overall game has suffered. Woods is averaging half as many assists and rebounds this season.

The game plan here appears fairly simple: Limit the number of open looks from 3 for Wake's guards. If possible, get Doral Moore in foul trouble (he's only averaging 5.3 fouls per 40 minutes, which is quite good for a shot blocking center), and mostly just play average or better defense. Scoring is not the issue for the Blue Devils this season. Keeping the Demon Deacons from torching the basket from deep is the main key.

Let's Go Duke!

[Kedsy]

If possible, get Doral Moore in foul trouble (he's only averaging 5.3 fouls per 40 minutes, which is quite good for a shot blocking center)...

Thanks, DBA and CDu for your scouting reports. One minor quibble: 5.3 fouls per 40 isn't absolutely terrible for a shot-blocking center, but I wouldn't characterize it as "quite good," either.

Moore has 3.9 blocks per 40 and 5.3 fouls per 40. For comparison's sake, here are the top 6 shot blockers (total blocks) in the country:

Ajdin Penava (Marshall), 6.2 bp40; 4.7 fp40
Mo Bamba (Texas), 6.1 bp40; 4.1 fp40
Reggie Lynch (Minn), 4.1 bp40; 2.7 fp40
Anas Mahmoud (Louisville), 4.0 bp40; 5.0 fp40
Tariq Owens (St. Johns), 3.6 bp40; 2.8 fp40
Paschal Chukwu (Syracuse), 3.3 bp40; 2.9 fp40

All of them with lower fouls per 40 than Moore, most of them a lot lower.

Here are the top 3 shot blockers on Duke's team (again, total blocks):

Wendell Carter, 3.0 bp40; 4.7 fp40
Marvin Bagley, 1.3 bp40; 2.4 fp40
Marques Bolden, 3.1 bp40; 5.1 fp40

Again, all three with lower fouls per 40 than Moore, though Wendell and Marques aren't much lower, and Marvin isn't really that productive a shotblocker.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Thanks, DBA and CDu for your scouting reports. One minor quibble: 5.3 fouls per 40 isn't absolutely terrible for a shot-blocking center, but I wouldn't characterize it as "quite good," either.

Moore has 3.9 blocks per 40 and 5.3 fouls per 40. For comparison's sake, here are the top 6 shot blockers (total blocks) in the country:

Ajdin Penava (Marshall), 6.2 bp40; 4.7 fp40
Mo Bamba (Texas), 6.1 bp40; 4.1 fp40
Reggie Lynch (Minn), 4.1 bp40; 2.7 fp40
Anas Mahmoud (Louisville), 4.0 bp40; 5.0 fp40
Tariq Owens (St. Johns), 3.6 bp40; 2.8 fp40
Paschal Chukwu (Syracuse), 3.3 bp40; 2.9 fp40

All of them with lower fouls per 40 than Moore, most of them a lot lower.

Here are the top 3 shot blockers on Duke's team (again, total blocks):

Wendell Carter, 3.0 bp40; 4.7 fp40
Marvin Bagley, 1.3 bp40; 2.4 fp40
Marques Bolden, 3.1 bp40; 5.1 fp40

Again, all three with lower fouls per 40 than Moore, though Wendell and Marques aren't much lower, and Marvin isn't really that productive a shotblocker.

Thanks for the clarification, Kedsy. No, Moore is not the best of most proficient shot blocker in CBB. But he's put to the test a ton and is often that only big on then court. I was expecting that he would be fouling a lot more than he has. Then again, he's only playing about 22 minutes a game. It's not clear that he would be able to keep up with Duke if we decided to push the tempo. Wake plays at a relatively modest pace this season. Could he do much to keep Carter or Bagley run to the rim in transition? I think Moore is playing better than he has previously but is only ok at best and we should expect that interior defense will be an issue for Wake.

[awhom111]

TV Stations and Free Stream:
http://theacc.com/sports/2017/12/9/a...b-180113a.aspx

Blackout Map:


Options based on location:

Black:
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Green:
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[awhom111]

TV Stations and Free Stream:
http://theacc.com/sports/2017/12/9/a...b-180113a.aspx

Blackout Map:


Options based on location:

Black:
-On TV via station from list linked above
-Online via link posted above

Green:
-On TV via station from list linked above
-On TV via ESPN College Extra (channel assignments not available yet)
-Online via link posted above
-Online via ACC Network Extra section of WatchESPN

ESPN College Extra channel assignments:
DirecTV 788, AT&T U-Verse 614, Verizon FIOS 821, Spectrum cable subscribers should check local lineup

For those interested in this sort of thing, the markets included in the over the air broadcast cover about 64.5% of the population.

[grossbus]

I hate early games.

[smvalkyries]

Not sure about you but I still can't get over last saturday.That wasn't a "next play" game. It's not that we lost to State it was the state of our Defense. I know it's a young team (defensively somewhere near underclass high school) but despite the best talent in the country I hate to say we looked completely uncoached on defense I know we have the best coach of all time so what happened? Defense on the street is better than what we showed saturday. 20 minutes of D against Pitt means nothing to me... I wish I had a solution. I don't. Can we afford 25 minutes of J Robbie just for his communication and hustle? Maybe or maybe we can't afford not to have 25 minutes of J Robby! Untl someone figures it out I wouldn't take anyone lightly. I do love and respect Duke basketball and esp Coach K, but this lack of D is very very painful to watch even when we outscore the opponent. For all of you who begged for the no contact game you are now getting it from our D. I would rather we fouled every shot in the paint than to see us give up dunk after dunk.
All that said I am still wondering if the whole team has had the flu, is playing through partially torn tendons, or mononucleosis. I think any of those would make me feel more confident for the future than I do right now.
Here's hoping we can outscore Wake tomorrow.

[slower]

For those interested in this sort of thing, the markets included in the over the air broadcast cover about 64.5% of the population.

Yes, but what about electoral votes? What's the breakdown there?

Oh, and for the record, Wake is one of the teams I've come to despise recently, due to their chippy style. Bryant Crawford, in particular, is rather unpleasant.

I'm not predicting anything. This Duke team could win any game or lose any game - there's no telling what will happen, no matter who gets it right in their pre-game prediction and then considers themselves an expert.

[carteretdevil]

TV Stations and Free Stream:
http://theacc.com/sports/2017/12/9/a...b-180113a.aspx

Blackout Map:


Options based on location:

Black:
-On TV via station from list linked above
-Online via link posted above

Green:
-On TV via station from list linked above
-On TV via ESPN College Extra (channel assignments not available yet)
-Online via link posted above
-Online via ACC Network Extra section of WatchESPN

I appreciate you putting this on the board!!

[DrChainsaw]

TV Stations and Free Stream:
http://theacc.com/sports/2017/12/9/a...b-180113a.aspx

Blackout Map:


Options based on location:

Black:
-On TV via station from list linked above
-Online via link posted above

Green:
-On TV via station from list linked above
-On TV via ESPN College Extra (channel assignments not available yet)
-Online via link posted above
-Online via ACC Network Extra section of WatchESPN

May be stuck at, er, um, I mean enjoying a swim meet mid-day. What's the replay potential?

[TruBlu]

May be stuck at, er, um, I mean enjoying a swim meet mid-day. What's the replay potential?

Replay should be on WatchESPN. Might be a short delay after the game is over before replay is available. Or do better than I do, and remember to set your DVR.

Enjoy your chore . . . er, I mean the pleasure of watching the swim meet.

[lotusland]

May be stuck at, er, um, I mean enjoying a swim meet mid-day. What's the replay potential?

There is nothing longer than summer league swim meet. Drive an hour to arrive at 5:00 for warmups in 100° heat with 100% humidity. Watch kid swim exhibition freestyle at beginning then wait until the end for freestyle relay. Thunder and lightning near the end. Meet delayed for another hour. Get home at midnight. Swim team was great for kids but I cried tears of joy when it ended. I understand winter meets or HS meets tend to move a little faster tho...

[-jk]

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Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[flyingdutchdevil]

and it's almost entirely on the offensive end. defenses are ranked nearly identically. should be a good test.

But we shouldn't care about the defense of the opponent. We have the most potent offense in the country.

I'm worried about their O. Like you said, Wake is so much better than Pitt on that end (#46 vs Pitt's #221). Can we make stops? Can we keep the intensity for 20+ minutes (I'm not going to say 40 min as that's not happening)?

If the collective scores of both teams is under 165, I like our chances to win.