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  1. #1701
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Boca Grande Florida
    So, obviously, take my thoughts in this thread with a grain of salt...Iím just an old fishing guide and small business owner with no financial planning education beyond the School of Hard Knocks over six decades.

    Late January I told my financial advisor to get my retirement portfolio into more conservative investments to prepare for what I believe is coming inflation and a substantial market correction. Iíve missed out on a strong past couple of months for sure, but Iíve never been good at timing markets and the great annual gains Iíve had the past few years of about 18% when we took a more aggressive approach are now theoretically in a safer place. Itís all in pretty standard, boring stuff, but Iím comfortable now since my risk is minimized somewhat.

    All that said, for fun and a challenge, Iíve been researching all things crypto the last couple of months to try and educate myself on a just what is going on in that space and started to make some small investments. Putting just enough money in to keep it interesting, but with the understanding that it could all go away, too.

    Now, I have a Trust wallet that holds my Bitcoin,(hodling) and accounts on Gemini, Coinbase and Binance. Have a good laugh, but Iíve learned most everything I know now on YouTube along with google searches every time I came across a term I didnít know, which was all the time.

    There are a lot of Youtuberís to avoid that are just shills or wannabe influencers. Youíll know them when you see them and just move along.

    One channel I like thatís a little entertaining but also provides solid, up to date perspectives and in depth info on almost everything crypto is Coin Bureau.
    Iíve also learned a lot by watching MIT OpenCourseWare classes on YouTube to learn about Blockchain, Smart Contracts, DApps..etc.

    My ďcrypto portfolioĒ now includes:

    Ethereum 50%
    Bitcoin 30%
    Chainlink 10%
    Compound 5%
    Kyber Networks 2.5%
    Ren 2.5%

    I wonít get into why I chose to invest in those assets unless somebody cares.

    Thereís a wave coming with these digital currencies and assets and Iím determined not to miss it, but seems itís a guessing game on who and whatís going to survive- just like the early days of the internet was when AOL, Netscape, Yahoo ended up getting crushed by a little bookstore like Amazon and a company with a silly name like Google.

    I havenít read all this thread, just the past few pages. So apologies if Iíve missed a lot of discussion on crypto stuff.

    Anybody thatís got some crypto insight, Iím interested.
    Wheat/"/"/"
    "An angry man catches no fish"-Zen proverb.

  2. #1702
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    So, obviously, take my thoughts in this thread with a grain of salt...Iím just an old fishing guide and small business owner with no financial planning education beyond the School of Hard Knocks over six decades.

    Late January I told my financial advisor to get my retirement portfolio into more conservative investments to prepare for what I believe is coming inflation and a substantial market correction. Iíve missed out on a strong past couple of months for sure, but Iíve never been good at timing markets and the great annual gains Iíve had the past few years of about 18% when we took a more aggressive approach are now theoretically in a safer place. Itís all in pretty standard, boring stuff, but Iím comfortable now since my risk is minimized somewhat.

    All that said, for fun and a challenge, Iíve been researching all things crypto the last couple of months to try and educate myself on a just what is going on in that space and started to make some small investments. Putting just enough money in to keep it interesting, but with the understanding that it could all go away, too.

    Now, I have a Trust wallet that holds my Bitcoin,(hodling) and accounts on Gemini, Coinbase and Binance. Have a good laugh, but Iíve learned most everything I know now on YouTube along with google searches every time I came across a term I didnít know, which was all the time.

    There are a lot of Youtuberís to avoid that are just shills or wannabe influencers. Youíll know them when you see them and just move along.

    One channel I like thatís a little entertaining but also provides solid, up to date perspectives and in depth info on almost everything crypto is Coin Bureau.
    Iíve also learned a lot by watching MIT OpenCourseWare classes on YouTube to learn about Blockchain, Smart Contracts, DApps..etc.

    My ďcrypto portfolioĒ now includes:

    Ethereum 50%
    Bitcoin 30%
    Chainlink 10%
    Compound 5%
    Kyber Networks 2.5%
    Ren 2.5%

    I wonít get into why I chose to invest in those assets unless somebody cares.

    Thereís a wave coming with these digital currencies and assets and Iím determined not to miss it, but seems itís a guessing game on who and whatís going to survive- just like the early days of the internet was when AOL, Netscape, Yahoo ended up getting crushed by a little bookstore like Amazon and a company with a silly name like Google.

    I havenít read all this thread, just the past few pages. So apologies if Iíve missed a lot of discussion on crypto stuff.

    Anybody thatís got some crypto insight, Iím interested.
    I do not. I did find out recently my mid-20s niece was an early bitcoin investor and has done very well. She also gets paid in bitcoin in at least one of her side gigs. That caught my attention (for several reasons). There's no question it's becoming more accepted and institutionalized.

    I wish you well in your crypto foray. Like you, any $$ I invested in the space would have to be a sum I was fine with losing.

  3. #1703
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    So, obviously, take my thoughts in this thread with a grain of salt...Iím just an old fishing guide and small business owner with no financial planning education beyond the School of Hard Knocks over six decades.

    Late January I told my financial advisor to get my retirement portfolio into more conservative investments to prepare for what I believe is coming inflation and a substantial market correction. Iíve missed out on a strong past couple of months for sure, but Iíve never been good at timing markets and the great annual gains Iíve had the past few years of about 18% when we took a more aggressive approach are now theoretically in a safer place. Itís all in pretty standard, boring stuff, but Iím comfortable now since my risk is minimized somewhat.

    All that said, for fun and a challenge, Iíve been researching all things crypto the last couple of months to try and educate myself on a just what is going on in that space and started to make some small investments. Putting just enough money in to keep it interesting, but with the understanding that it could all go away, too.

    Now, I have a Trust wallet that holds my Bitcoin,(hodling) and accounts on Gemini, Coinbase and Binance. Have a good laugh, but Iíve learned most everything I know now on YouTube along with google searches every time I came across a term I didnít know, which was all the time.

    There are a lot of Youtuberís to avoid that are just shills or wannabe influencers. Youíll know them when you see them and just move along.

    One channel I like thatís a little entertaining but also provides solid, up to date perspectives and in depth info on almost everything crypto is Coin Bureau.
    Iíve also learned a lot by watching MIT OpenCourseWare classes on YouTube to learn about Blockchain, Smart Contracts, DApps..etc.

    My ďcrypto portfolioĒ now includes:

    Ethereum 50%
    Bitcoin 30%
    Chainlink 10%
    Compound 5%
    Kyber Networks 2.5%
    Ren 2.5%

    I wonít get into why I chose to invest in those assets unless somebody cares.

    Thereís a wave coming with these digital currencies and assets and Iím determined not to miss it, but seems itís a guessing game on who and whatís going to survive- just like the early days of the internet was when AOL, Netscape, Yahoo ended up getting crushed by a little bookstore like Amazon and a company with a silly name like Google.

    I havenít read all this thread, just the past few pages. So apologies if Iíve missed a lot of discussion on crypto stuff.

    Anybody thatís got some crypto insight, Iím interested.
    Thoughtful.

    I have nothing to add except a question.

    Isnít it safer to invest in apex, ďcanít failĒ companies that you know and use, like Kodak, Sears, and Hertz?

  4. #1704
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Rougemont Nebulae
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post

    Late January I told my financial advisor to get my retirement portfolio into more conservative investments to prepare for what I believe is coming inflation and a substantial market correction.
    I'm curious why you think the market may be due for a correction. What do you see that would catalyze a correction? With the economy awash in "free" government money I could understand your inflation prediction but if most of that money goes to the lower income brackets it most likely gets directed to debt reduction which would mitigate inflationary pressure.

    My financial counselor told me that a market correction is contraindicated at this time.

    Educate me...(and I mean that sincerely).
    "You will stop hearing the term 'Big Brother' because we will do it to ourselves." --Neil Postman

  5. #1705
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBlue View Post
    I'm curious why you think the market may be due for a correction. What do you see that would catalyze a correction? With the economy awash in "free" government money I could understand your inflation prediction but if most of that money goes to the lower income brackets it most likely gets directed to debt reduction which would mitigate inflationary pressure.

    My financial counselor told me that a market correction is contraindicated at this time.

    Educate me...(and I mean that sincerely).
    My experience of many years as an investment advisor and investor is that NO ONE can predict, with any degree of accuracy, the short (or long) term direction that the stock market (or other financial markets) may take. All of the predictions on Wall Street from the so-called "experts" are hot air. They're wrong ALL the time.

  6. #1706
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBlue View Post
    I'm curious why you think the market may be due for a correction. What do you see that would catalyze a correction? With the economy awash in "free" government money I could understand your inflation prediction but if most of that money goes to the lower income brackets it most likely gets directed to debt reduction which would mitigate inflationary pressure.

    My financial counselor told me that a market correction is contraindicated at this time.

    Educate me...(and I mean that sincerely).
    By historical standards, a correction is due.

    We have left history behind.

  7. #1707
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Boca Grande Florida
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBlue View Post
    I'm curious why you think the market may be due for a correction. What do you see that would catalyze a correction? With the economy awash in "free" government money I could understand your inflation prediction but if most of that money goes to the lower income brackets it most likely gets directed to debt reduction which would mitigate inflationary pressure.

    My financial counselor told me that a market correction is contraindicated at this time.

    Educate me...(and I mean that sincerely).
    I guess my take is based on my gut that we’re overdue. I can’t point to any particular driving force for a correction, beyond a feeling that all this stimulus money will act like a sugar rush in a kid. At some point it goes away and there’s not much energy left.

    I also want to lock in the past few years gains, as best I can, so there’s that to move to a more conservative outlook on the market.

    I’m pretty bullish on this crypto move, but I’m also pragmatic. It’s so early that it’s not clear which technologies will survive. I’m betting now that ethereum will win the infrastructure battle for NFT’s and DApps, where there is a real opportunity for new business ventures to be started and be based on their platform. (Think Amazon Cloud for Crypto?)

    But ethereum has scaling issues and could be overtaken by competitors like Cardano and Polkadot if they struggle addressing those issues. Remains to be seen what happens, big software update coming this summer to the platform that will be key.

    Crypto, the virtual Wild West right now.
    Last edited by Wheat/"/"/"; 04-05-2021 at 02:05 PM.
    Wheat/"/"/"
    "An angry man catches no fish"-Zen proverb.

  8. #1708
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    I guess my take is based on my gut that we’re overdue. I can’t point to any particular driving force for a correction, beyond a feeling that all this stimulus money will act like a sugar rush in a kid. At some point it goes away and there’s not much energy left.

    I also want to lock in the past few years gains, as best I can, so there’s that to move to a more conservative outlook on the market.

    I’m pretty bullish on this crypto move, but I’m also pragmatic. It’s so early that it’s not clear which technologies will survive. I’m betting now that ethereum will win the infrastructure battle for NFT’s and DApps, where there is a real opportunity for new business ventures to be started and be based on their platform. (Think Amazon Cloud for Crypto?)

    But ethereum has scaling issues and could be overtaken by competitors like Cardano and Polkadot if they struggle addressing those issues. Remains to be seen what happens, big software update coming this summer to the platform that will be key.

    Crypto, the virtual Wild West right now.
    The challenge is "at some point" can be very far in the future...Yes, there will be a correction, but hard to know when and by how much, so staying out of the market could be more costly. Having said that, if you've "won the game" or are close to retirement, de-risking your portfolio could be prudent. Crypto would not be a way to de-risk IMO, but is a diversifier and I don't personally think your strategy is crazy. I've been debating adding some to my portfolio as a "moonshot/diversifier" but haven't pulled the trigger. Ethereum seems to be a prudent choice as your #1 holding there. I would view it as a speculative asset, however, far riskier than a Total Stock Market fund and thus would only do it with a small percentage of the portfolio or an amount one can "afford to lose." Could pay off mightly, could not.

    The other concern I have with those is the methods/security involved given the lost PINs/hacks/other shenanigans in the crypto world. So, perhaps diversifying across currencies and different sites is prudent in case that comes to arise. I know a bitcoin trust just came on the market that they're looking to convert to an ETF eventually. Haven't looked enough into that, but I assume there would also be risks associated with it and it's perhaps not identical to holding bitcoin (like GLD isn't exactly the same as holding gold coins).

    With all the printing of new money, inflation could be a concern over the next decade or so (although it somehow has been ridiculously low still) and perhaps crypto will ride that wave (or not...).

  9. #1709
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    My experience of many years as an investment advisor and investor is that NO ONE can predict, with any degree of accuracy, the short (or long) term direction that the stock market (or other financial markets) may take. All of the predictions on Wall Street from the so-called "experts" are hot air. They're wrong ALL the time.
    Alpha is just a construct?

  10. #1710
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Boca Grande Florida
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    The challenge is "at some point" can be very far in the future...Yes, there will be a correction, but hard to know when and by how much, so staying out of the market could be more costly. Having said that, if you've "won the game" or are close to retirement, de-risking your portfolio could be prudent. Crypto would not be a way to de-risk IMO, but is a diversifier and I don't personally think your strategy is crazy. I've been debating adding some to my portfolio as a "moonshot/diversifier" but haven't pulled the trigger. Ethereum seems to be a prudent choice as your #1 holding there. I would view it as a speculative asset, however, far riskier than a Total Stock Market fund and thus would only do it with a small percentage of the portfolio or an amount one can "afford to lose." Could pay off mightly, could not.

    The other concern I have with those is the methods/security involved given the lost PINs/hacks/other shenanigans in the crypto world. So, perhaps diversifying across currencies and different sites is prudent in case that comes to arise. I know a bitcoin trust just came on the market that they're looking to convert to an ETF eventually. Haven't looked enough into that, but I assume there would also be risks associated with it and it's perhaps not identical to holding bitcoin (like GLD isn't exactly the same as holding gold coins).

    With all the printing of new money, inflation could be a concern over the next decade or so (although it somehow has been ridiculously low still) and perhaps crypto will ride that wave (or not...).
    I don’t disagree with anything you’ve brought up. Crypto security is a big deal and not to be taken lightly.
    I have accounts spread out on the three crypto exchanges that are rated highest in security, just to diversify the hacking risk to an exchange. The Trust wallet is also considered one of the best, (fingers crossed). If I accumulate much more Bitcoin, I will move it offline from the Trust wallet into “cold storage” since I’m not likely to be selling Bitcoin anytime soon.

    I’m sure I’m missing out on some very nice gains had I kept some of my more aggressive stocks. But, I’m not out of the stock market, just pulled back to minimize risks with stocks that are likely to be more stable in a downturn. And you’re right, who knows what’s early? At my stage of life, I’d rather be out to early, than in to late. I also own some solid real estate assets. I’m not messing around with my retirement plans.

    My crypto interest is with money I can afford to lose, I’m speculating for sure, but I’m taking it seriously and doing the research. I don’t like to lose. I’m just gambling some to try and hit a home run...

    I decided to buy more ethereum today...
    .
    Wheat/"/"/"
    "An angry man catches no fish"-Zen proverb.

  11. #1711
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    ...

    I also want to lock in the past few years gains, as best I can, so thereís that to move to a more conservative outlook on the market.

    ...
    Yes... I'm at that age too... my investment advisor also gives me feedback on the same thing. Some investments have "flown hign" recently (tech, especially)... and he thought liquidating some of it to take the gains should be considered.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    The challenge is "at some point" can be very far in the future...Yes, there will be a correction, but hard to know when and by how much, so staying out of the market could be more costly. Having said that, if you've "won the game" or are close to retirement, de-risking your portfolio could be prudent. Crypto would not be a way to de-risk IMO, but is a diversifier and I don't personally think your strategy is crazy. I've been debating adding some to my portfolio as a "moonshot/diversifier" but haven't pulled the trigger. Ethereum seems to be a prudent choice as your #1 holding there. I would view it as a speculative asset, however, far riskier than a Total Stock Market fund and thus would only do it with a small percentage of the portfolio or an amount one can "afford to lose." Could pay off mightly, could not.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    ...

    Iím sure Iím missing out on some very nice gains had I kept some of my more aggressive stocks. But, Iím not out of the stock market, just pulled back to minimize risks with stocks that are likely to be more stable in a downturn. And youíre right, who knows whatís early? At my stage of life, Iíd rather be out to early, than in to late. I also own some solid real estate assets. Iím not messing around with my retirement plans.

    ...
    At a certain age, better to get modest gains with minimum risk, rather than try for the home run with large risk. I'm with you...

  12. #1712
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    nothing wrong with marching to your own drummer...we could have been more aggressive, but we don't need to be and we sleep well at night...

  13. #1713
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Alpha is just a construct?
    Ah, yes, the mythical "alpha" that so many money managers hope to attain but, in reality, very, very, VERY few ever generate, in the long term, for their clients.

  14. #1714
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    Ah, yes, the mythical "alpha" that so many money managers hope to attain but, in reality, very, very, VERY few ever generate, in the long term, for their clients.
    You said it, not me! I mean, some funds and managers consistently outperform their benchmark, right?!?!

  15. #1715
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Beginning to wonder if we wonít see the market double itís 2020 pandemic lows this year. Lots of bullish sentiment about.

  16. #1716
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Beginning to wonder if we wonít see the market double itís 2020 pandemic lows this year. Lots of bullish sentiment about.
    yeah, the government is firehosing a lot of money on the economy, business should be booming.

  17. #1717
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    So, obviously, take my thoughts in this thread with a grain of salt...Iím just an old fishing guide and small business owner with no financial planning education beyond the School of Hard Knocks over six decades.

    Late January I told my financial advisor to get my retirement portfolio into more conservative investments to prepare for what I believe is coming inflation and a substantial market correction. Iíve missed out on a strong past couple of months for sure, but Iíve never been good at timing markets and the great annual gains Iíve had the past few years of about 18% when we took a more aggressive approach are now theoretically in a safer place. Itís all in pretty standard, boring stuff, but Iím comfortable now since my risk is minimized somewhat.

    All that said, for fun and a challenge, Iíve been researching all things crypto the last couple of months to try and educate myself on a just what is going on in that space and started to make some small investments. Putting just enough money in to keep it interesting, but with the understanding that it could all go away, too.

    Now, I have a Trust wallet that holds my Bitcoin,(hodling) and accounts on Gemini, Coinbase and Binance. Have a good laugh, but Iíve learned most everything I know now on YouTube along with google searches every time I came across a term I didnít know, which was all the time.

    There are a lot of Youtuberís to avoid that are just shills or wannabe influencers. Youíll know them when you see them and just move along.

    One channel I like thatís a little entertaining but also provides solid, up to date perspectives and in depth info on almost everything crypto is Coin Bureau.
    Iíve also learned a lot by watching MIT OpenCourseWare classes on YouTube to learn about Blockchain, Smart Contracts, DApps..etc.

    My ďcrypto portfolioĒ now includes:

    Ethereum 50%
    Bitcoin 30%
    Chainlink 10%
    Compound 5%
    Kyber Networks 2.5%
    Ren 2.5%

    I wonít get into why I chose to invest in those assets unless somebody cares.

    Thereís a wave coming with these digital currencies and assets and Iím determined not to miss it, but seems itís a guessing game on who and whatís going to survive- just like the early days of the internet was when AOL, Netscape, Yahoo ended up getting crushed by a little bookstore like Amazon and a company with a silly name like Google.

    I havenít read all this thread, just the past few pages. So apologies if Iíve missed a lot of discussion on crypto stuff.

    Anybody thatís got some crypto insight, Iím interested.
    I assume youíll be closely watching the CoinBase IPO this week.

  18. #1718
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Albemarle, North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    So, obviously, take my thoughts in this thread with a grain of salt...Iím just an old fishing guide and small business owner with no financial planning education beyond the School of Hard Knocks over six decades.

    Late January I told my financial advisor to get my retirement portfolio into more conservative investments to prepare for what I believe is coming inflation and a substantial market correction. Iíve missed out on a strong past couple of months for sure, but Iíve never been good at timing markets and the great annual gains Iíve had the past few years of about 18% when we took a more aggressive approach are now theoretically in a safer place. Itís all in pretty standard, boring stuff, but Iím comfortable now since my risk is minimized somewhat.

    All that said, for fun and a challenge, Iíve been researching all things crypto the last couple of months to try and educate myself on a just what is going on in that space and started to make some small investments. Putting just enough money in to keep it interesting, but with the understanding that it could all go away, too.

    Now, I have a Trust wallet that holds my Bitcoin,(hodling) and accounts on Gemini, Coinbase and Binance. Have a good laugh, but Iíve learned most everything I know now on YouTube along with google searches every time I came across a term I didnít know, which was all the time.

    There are a lot of Youtuberís to avoid that are just shills or wannabe influencers. Youíll know them when you see them and just move along.

    One channel I like thatís a little entertaining but also provides solid, up to date perspectives and in depth info on almost everything crypto is Coin Bureau.
    Iíve also learned a lot by watching MIT OpenCourseWare classes on YouTube to learn about Blockchain, Smart Contracts, DApps..etc.

    My ďcrypto portfolioĒ now includes:

    Ethereum 50%
    Bitcoin 30%
    Chainlink 10%
    Compound 5%
    Kyber Networks 2.5%
    Ren 2.5%

    I wonít get into why I chose to invest in those assets unless somebody cares.

    Thereís a wave coming with these digital currencies and assets and Iím determined not to miss it, but seems itís a guessing game on who and whatís going to survive- just like the early days of the internet was when AOL, Netscape, Yahoo ended up getting crushed by a little bookstore like Amazon and a company with a silly name like Google.

    I havenít read all this thread, just the past few pages. So apologies if Iíve missed a lot of discussion on crypto stuff.

    Anybody thatís got some crypto insight, Iím interested.
    Iíd be interested. I currently am in mostly Ethereum as well. Also holding some Bitcoin and Litecoin too.
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge" -Stephen Hawking

  19. #1719
    Shifting my overweight from value to more growth and cash. Where possible I've shifted back to megacap tech(AMZN, MSFT, NVDA) while trimming NUE, BA, BAC.

    Not a player in crypto as it surges(Bitcoin) this morning. Some trains you miss. I still don't understand the value; similar argument for the NFTs.

  20. #1720
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    I assume you’ll be closely watching the CoinBase IPO this week.
    Tomorrow's the IPO. Nasdaq set the reference price at $250. It's a wazzie, it's a woozie...


    Nasdaq gave Coinbase a reference price of $250 a share on Wednesday ahead of its planned direct listing, which would value the cryptocurrency exchange at about $65.3 billion on a fully diluted basis.

    Coinbase is set to become the first major crypto business to go public in the U.S. and, should it reach a $100 billion market cap, will instantly be one of the country’s 85 most valuable companies. The company’s value has soared in the past year alongside bitcoin and ethereum, the primary currencies traded on the site.

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