Investment Thread

[Jeffrey]

Thanks, makes sense. I'm not allowed to trade individual stocks, so need to find proxies.

I understand. At these levels, I think IAT is appropriately priced given substantially more industry specific risk relative to the overall market. I’m also not excited about paying 42 basis points in management expenses. I currently prefer VTI to IAT.

[OldPhiKap]

A Forbes article about Trump's debt raised a question for me -- what is the real future of office space? In my area, most folks continue to work from home and I cannot see office revenues being healthy for the foreseeable future. Which is not good if you have a high monthly debt service on it; you thus have an asset that is losing value and a smaller stream of income to pay the nut. And good luck refinancing on the asset as it drops in value.

And the Forbes article, for those interested in investment but not on the political thread:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalex.../#65ee06e64330

[Jeffrey]

A Forbes article about Trump's debt raised a question for me -- what is the real future of office space? In my area, most folks continue to work from home and I cannot see office revenues being healthy for the foreseeable future. Which is not good if you have a high monthly debt service on it; you thus have an asset that is losing value and a smaller stream of income to pay the nut. And good luck refinancing on the asset as it drops in value...

... and it ain't that pretty at all,
Ain't that pretty at all.

I’d expand your prudent concern to include most commercial real estate. IMO, a blood bath is rapidly approaching.

[OldPhiKap]

... and it ain't that pretty at all,
Ain't that pretty at all.

I’d expand your prudent concern to include most commercial real estate. IMO, a blood bath is rapidly approaching.

I'd rather feel bad
than not feel anything at all . . . .

[Jeffrey]

I'd rather feel bad
than not feel anything at all . . . .

So, I'm going to hurl myself against the wall...

[OldPhiKap]

So, I'm going to hurl myself against the wall...

When Black Friday comes
I'll stand down by the door
And catch the grey men when they
Dive from the fourteenth floor

When Black Friday comes
I'll collect everything I'm owed
And before my friends find out
I'll be on the road . . . .

[YmoBeThere]

Actually, there is one REIT I would own or a least consider. But haven't in quite a few years. Indianapolis based Duke Realty (DRE). Primary business when I sold it was warehouse space. Primary customer? Amazon. Well, the significant customer driving their growth. They then started getting in to medical facilities, which I wasn't a huge fan of, but I sold when tax treatment of REIT dividends changed. I like to keep my taxes simple so no MLPs, etc.

[Jeffrey]

Actually, there is one REIT I would own or a least consider. But haven't in quite a few years. Indianapolis based Duke Realty (DRE). Primary business when I sold it was warehouse space. Primary customer? Amazon. Well, the significant customer driving their growth. They then started getting in to medical facilities, which I wasn't a huge fan of, but I sold when tax treatment of REIT dividends changed. I like to keep my taxes simple so no MLPs, etc.

Makes sense. Having Amazon as a primary customer certainly gets my attention. Better yet, also having Amazon as a substantial shareholder. The combination, and a positive legal ruling, were key reasons I recommended Atlas Air (AAWW) below...

https://forums.dukebasketballreport...10#post1253310

[YmoBeThere]

Market maybe realizing increasing case counts aren't a good thing?

[Bluedog]

Market maybe realizing increasing case counts aren't a good thing?

And lack of additional stimulus...Yes, increasing case counts and likely upcoming additional restrictions (in some states) are usually not great economic bellweathers. We're not out of this thing yet even though the stock market valuation would have you believe that. Many businesses are about to get crushed over the winter again and i expect earnings to be poor for many sectors (but of course, others are fine).

[budwom]

market finally descending to a more logical level given the outlook for the next year or so. The only surprise for me is that it didn't happen sooner...

[camion]

market finally descending to a more logical level given the outlook for the next year or so. The only surprise for me is that it didn't happen sooner...

I have been wondering for some time why those knowledgeable investors were more optimistic about 2021 than I was.

[Jeffrey]

I have been wondering for some time why those knowledgeable investors were more optimistic about 2021 than I was.

They may have merely been more optimistic, a week or two ago, about more stimulus in 2020 and less new Covid cases.

[Tripping William]

They may have merely been more optimistic, a week or two ago, about more stimulus in 2020.

Maybe (just maybe) Mr. Market doesn’t care as much about SCOTUS justices?

[Jeffrey]

Maybe (just maybe) Mr. Market doesn’t care as much about SCOTUS justices?

If mandated, Government Sachs will pay multi-billion dollar fines. Amazing how long they dodged them.

[Jeffrey]

IMO, much like March, this seems like a very appropriate time to make adjustments in your portfolio composition. The significant probability of a highly effective vaccine and divided congress present a very different landscape than just a week ago.

[duke79]

IMO, much like March, this seems like a very appropriate time to make adjustments in your portfolio composition. The significant probability of a highly effective vaccine and divided congress present a very different landscape than just a week ago.

LOL, very simple. Buy, buy buy!

[elvis14]

LOL, very simple. Buy, buy buy!

The 'buy' is the easy part...it's the 'buy what?' that's harder to figure out

[Jeffrey]

The 'buy' is the easy part...it's the 'buy what?' that's harder to figure out

IMO, value stocks... more specifically, banks.

FWIW, this morning I bought Citi at ~ 66% of tangible book value.

[Bluedog]

IMO, value stocks... more specifically, banks.

FWIW, this morning I bought Citi at ~ 66% of tangible book value.

KBE up 15% and KRE up 17% today...yowzah!