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  1. #1221
    Markets letting off a little steam this morning?

  2. #1222
    Potential international banking scandal that will go absolutely nowhere. Maybe a fine here and there.

  3. #1223
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Potential international banking scandal that will go absolutely nowhere. Maybe a fine here and there.
    Relative to the market drop? The several sources I've read attribute the drop to Corvid (caw, caw) cases on the rise and the fear of economic restrictions related to that...

  4. #1224
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Potential international banking scandal that will go absolutely nowhere. Maybe a fine here and there.
    IMO, it was definitely an international banking scandal. As usual, the common stockholders paid the fines while the criminals made and kept serious money.

    The person or people who leaked the SARs and CTRs also performed criminal acts. There are many privacy violations.

    Iím somewhat surprised which US banks were involved. If you had told me the scenario and asked me to guess the major US bank, then I would have guessed Citi. They still have a much larger international presence with substantially weaker technology and internal auditing systems.

  5. #1225
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    S&P 500 up 1.54% today improving to 10.84% year to date.
    Now up just 0.2% for the year. Plus another 0.8% in dividends one might have collected YTD(2Q). Looks like we hit that interim peak pretty well.

  6. #1226
    Lots of smart folks here. Hope it's OK to ask for input about one's personal situation. I haven't really crunched the numbers yet but thought I'd throw this out:

    After decades in the corporate world I now find myself co-founder of a two person software company. Things are going well. We're not interested in world domination: slow and steady growth with two employees is fine. We're both likely to want to retire in the next 5-15 years and at that time would consider selling, or adding a third employee to do daily admin and support. So that's the set up.

    We've recently established a solo 401k plan. In addition to company contributions it allows individual contributions. Individual contributions can be tax deferred (traditional IRA) or after tax (Roth IRA). I'm contemplating going Roth, based on the assumption that taxes are likely to increase in the future and my tax bracket post age 70 should be lower than it is now.

    Has anyone else worked through this, found any good online calculators, or have any sage advice? Thanks!

  7. #1227
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmymax View Post
    After decades in the corporate world I now find myself co-founder of a two person software company.

    We've recently established a solo 401k plan. In addition to company contributions it allows individual contributions. Individual contributions can be tax deferred (traditional IRA) or after tax (Roth IRA). I'm contemplating going Roth, based on the assumption that taxes are likely to increase in the future and my tax bracket post age 70 should be lower than it is now.
    A couple opinions/questions...

    1. Never make isolated financial decisions. All of your money should be considered when making a decision on how to handle this piece. For example... How is your other money invested? What percentage of your aggregate net worth is in each type of account?

    2. The money you amassed after decades in the corporate world is a key component in this decision.

    3. Social Security may also be an important consideration.

    4. If tax rates increase, then are you certain yours will decrease, from current rates, when you retire?

    My point is there is a lot of different components to consider and an online calculator, which does not consider all the components, may generate an inappropriate response.

  8. #1228
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmymax View Post
    Lots of smart folks here. Hope it's OK to ask for input about one's personal situation. I haven't really crunched the numbers yet but thought I'd throw this out:

    After decades in the corporate world I now find myself co-founder of a two person software company. Things are going well. We're not interested in world domination: slow and steady growth with two employees is fine. We're both likely to want to retire in the next 5-15 years and at that time would consider selling, or adding a third employee to do daily admin and support. So that's the set up.

    We've recently established a solo 401k plan. In addition to company contributions it allows individual contributions. Individual contributions can be tax deferred (traditional IRA) or after tax (Roth IRA). I'm contemplating going Roth, based on the assumption that taxes are likely to increase in the future and my tax bracket post age 70 should be lower than it is now.

    Has anyone else worked through this, found any good online calculators, or have any sage advice? Thanks!
    Not sure if this is relevant to your situation, but however you invest your 401k, don't put it in your own company stock (if there is company stock). You've got enough eggs in that basket already. Something like a broad based (S&P 500) index fund with very low fees.

  9. #1229
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Central New York state

    Wink

    Quote Originally Posted by jimmymax View Post
    Lots of smart folks here. Hope it's OK to ask for input about one's personal situation. I haven't really crunched the numbers yet but thought I'd throw this out:

    After decades in the corporate world I now find myself co-founder of a two person software company. Things are going well. We're not interested in world domination: slow and steady growth with two employees is fine. We're both likely to want to retire in the next 5-15 years and at that time would consider selling, or adding a third employee to do daily admin and support. So that's the set up.

    We've recently established a solo 401k plan. In addition to company contributions it allows individual contributions. Individual contributions can be tax deferred (traditional IRA) or after tax (Roth IRA). I'm contemplating going Roth, based on the assumption that taxes are likely to increase in the future and my tax bracket post age 70 should be lower than it is now.

    Has anyone else worked through this, found any good online calculators, or have any sage advice? Thanks!
    Inventing an idea out of thin air, but how about doing both - and alternating year over year?

    Some totally unsubstantiated assumptions go into my idea:
    1) You wrote IRA in your post, but I'm presuming you meant... "tax deferred (traditional 401K) or after tax (Roth 401K)".
    2) your role in the business allows you to set your own compensation and then vary it each year
    3) you can create a whopper of a company match (which nicely ducks taxation)

    For example, let's say you currently live on $150K per year. In year one, pay yourself $275K, maximize your Traditional 401K (plus match) while deferring the taxes. For year two, pay yourself $25k, pay income taxes at the associated low marginal tax rate, and fully fund the year into a Roth 401K (plus match). Of course, in year two, you need to live off your savings.

    Tada! Genius! And I expect somehow illegal - but I had fun thinking about it.

  10. #1230
    Thanks for the feedback. It's hard to convey just the right amount of detail on a forum like this. Jeffrey, I appreciate that one must consider the whole enchilada and not make isolated decisions. As it happens, most (75%) of existing retirement savings is in tax deferred accounts, so the Roth option got my attention, but I'm unsure if having this kind of balance in retirement savings is valuable. I'm pretty sure I can contribute to both trad and Roth (BlueTeuf, I did mean 401k not IRA) in a given year, so there's flexibility there. The solo 401k is nice: the company can contribute up to 25% of our "salary" as profit sharing (up to a limit) plus we can make individual contributions. And budworm, we're a piddly outfit at this point -- no company stock.

  11. #1231
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmymax View Post
    Thanks for the feedback. It's hard to convey just the right amount of detail on a forum like this.
    Exactly, IMO, itís not prudent to publicly share the amount of personal information required to get an informed opinion. If you would like to send me a confidential PM, then Iíd be glad to tell you what I would do in your situation. Free advice, worth every penny!

  12. #1232
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Cambridge, MA

    Convert Pension to 401K?

    I will be eligible to collect a small pension from a former employer when I turn 65 in approximately 15 years. The pension is not adjusted for inflation, so I expect that it will be barely enough to cover a few minor monthly bills by 2035 and beyond. As a result, my wife and I are relying on our 401Ks and other investments - not the small pension - to support our retirement.

    My former employer has given me the option to convert the pension into a lump sum which I can deposit into my 401K. Does anybody have any suggestions for the types of things I should consider when deciding whether to keep the pension or take the lump sum for my 401K?

    For example, is there a rule of thumb which estimates the relative value of a pension and 401K at age 65? In other words, if my yearly pension in $X, approximately how much would I need to have in a 401K to generate approximately the same yearly income?


    A couple of additional points:

    • The offer is a lump sum of $8.13 for every $1 in year pension benefit. In other words, if my yearly pension benefit is $1000, then the lump sum offer would be for $8130.
    • The lump sum letter mentions that the company “is considering purchasing an insured annuity to administer and pay your benefits in the future”. Would this have any impact on how much I should be concerned about the stability of the pension in the future? One of my fears about keeping the pension is that the pension fund somehow disappears and I don’t end up receiving the full value of the pension.
    • I have been offered a lump sum in the past and have chosen to keep the pension in part because it provides a small bit of diversification vs my 401K.

  13. #1233
    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    I will be eligible to collect a small pension from a former employer when I turn 65 in approximately 15 years. The pension is not adjusted for inflation, so I expect that it will be barely enough to cover a few minor monthly bills by 2035 and beyond. As a result, my wife and I are relying on our 401Ks and other investments - not the small pension - to support our retirement.

    My former employer has given me the option to convert the pension into a lump sum which I can deposit into my 401K. Does anybody have any suggestions for the types of things I should consider when deciding whether to keep the pension or take the lump sum for my 401K?

    For example, is there a rule of thumb which estimates the relative value of a pension and 401K at age 65? In other words, if my yearly pension in $X, approximately how much would I need to have in a 401K to generate approximately the same yearly income?


    A couple of additional points:

    • The offer is a lump sum of $8.13 for every $1 in year pension benefit. In other words, if my yearly pension benefit is $1000, then the lump sum offer would be for $8130.
    • The lump sum letter mentions that the company ďis considering purchasing an insured annuity to administer and pay your benefits in the futureĒ. Would this have any impact on how much I should be concerned about the stability of the pension in the future? One of my fears about keeping the pension is that the pension fund somehow disappears and I donít end up receiving the full value of the pension.
    • I have been offered a lump sum in the past and have chosen to keep the pension in part because it provides a small bit of diversification vs my 401K.
    IMO, itís not prudent to publicly share the amount of personal information required to get an informed opinion. If you would like to send me a confidential PM, then Iíd be glad to tell you what I would do in your situation. Free advice, worth every penny!

    OTOH, if you would be more comfortable having others review my advice, then Iíd ask personal questions and respond on this thread. Not my recommendation, but your choice.

  14. #1234
    Large scale layoffs continue:

    Disney to lay off 28,000 employees as coronavirus slams theme park business


    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/29/disn...ndroidappshare



    KEY POINTS

    • Disney will lay off 28,000 employees across its parks, experiences and consumer products segment.
    • The company blamed prolonged closures and capacity limits at open parks for the layoffs.
    • While Disneyís theme parks in Florida, Paris, Shanghai, Japan and Hong Kong have been able to reopen with limited capacity, both California theme parks




  15. #1235
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Conceptually, very interesting- ďcopytradingĒ.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rket-investing

    While Iíve not shared actual dollar amounts, shares or trade activity (which for me, is limited), it would be pretty neat to track financial progress against different investors and investment managent strategies directly.

    The Ts&Cs behind this must be pretty fascinating to read, assuming thereís lots of investor assumes all risk and no liability to anyone you choose to follow/imitate.

    I wonder what Motley Fool thinks of this as it is almost an unpaid(?) version of what they offer investors.

  16. #1236
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by fuse View Post
    Conceptually, very interesting- ďcopytradingĒ.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rket-investing

    While Iíve not shared actual dollar amounts, shares or trade activity (which for me, is limited), it would be pretty neat to track financial progress against different investors and investment managent strategies directly.

    The Ts&Cs behind this must be pretty fascinating to read, assuming thereís lots of investor assumes all risk and no liability to anyone you choose to follow/imitate.

    I wonder what Motley Fool thinks of this as it is almost an unpaid(?) version of what they offer investors.
    Interesting. Thanks for sharing. Iím not sure investing should be more ďgamefiedĒ than it is for the average person, particularly those that canít limit their short term trading to discretionary funds. That said, Iíd enjoy keeping an eye on this and potentially throwing a few bucks at it.

    Sort of like twitch for investing?

  17. #1237
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    The other team made some great halftime adjustments (last night), so I'm not running the second piece of the play today (as planned).

    FWIW, here was one of the plays in my new playbook...

    Yesterday, I bought CMA under $27 and CFG under $17.50 (adding more risk to my overall portfolio). Paid for the pair selling domestic, broad market, index funds (did not change my overall asset allocations). I'm having a hard time believing the overall market should be down ~ 17% when these regional banks were down more than 50%. IMO, if banks are going to hell (which is certainly possible!), then the overall market is likely to follow. I found CFG and CMA very attractive, at yesterday's prices, and they serve different U.S. regions. I'm expecting, and hoping, both discontinue their dividends (prefer they use the money for capital building) until this is over. I like their aggregate stated book values (it's almost impossible to currently value their loan portfolios and probably losses) and capital positions. I doubt liquidity will become a concern for either.

    I'd love to hear any, and all, weaknesses anyone sees with my play!
    IMO, Trump currently appears stable as water. So, Iím selling into Happy Trump. This morning I sold half my CMA position at $43.20. Currently, I prefer CFG.

  18. #1238
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    IMO, Trump currently appears stable as water. So, Iím selling into Happy Trump. This morning I sold half my CMA position at $43.20. Currently, I prefer CFG.
    What's your take on a regional bank ETF like IAT?

  19. #1239
    Quote Originally Posted by freshmanjs View Post
    What's your take on a regional bank ETF like IAT?
    I strongly prefer buying individual regional banks due to the very substantial differences in balance sheet compositions, revenue sources, operating expense management, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, etc. IMO, the difference in senior management competency and purpose is very substantial. It’s a very different world, than January 2020, and some banks can and will adjust much more quickly, efficiently, and effectively. For example, last week, I started buying shares in a regional bank well suited to earn in this almost zero interest rate environment.

  20. #1240
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    I strongly prefer buying individual regional banks due to the very substantial differences in balance sheet compositions, revenue sources, operating expense management, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, etc. IMO, the difference in senior management competency and purpose is very substantial. Itís a very different world, than January 2020, and some banks can and will adjust much more quickly, efficiently, and effectively. For example, last week, I started buying shares in a regional bank well suited to earn in this almost zero interest rate environment.
    Thanks, makes sense. I'm not allowed to trade individual stocks, so need to find proxies.

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