Investment Thread

[budwom]

yeah, creeping somewhat away from equities right now seems like a no brainer, but the stock market, up she goes, on and on! (Until she doesn't). So don't listen to me.

[Bob Green]

yeah, creeping somewhat away from equities right now seems like a no brainer, but the stock market, up she goes, on and on! (Until she doesn't). So don't listen to me.

Timing is everything. I’m attempting to determine when to move my TSP from the C, S and I funds to the G Fund. I’m convinced the market is going to take a tumble, but who knows when? Not me for sure.

[DukieInKansas]

IMO, this morning seems like a good time to decrease equity positions. For example, this morning, I sold some of the stock addressed above for $60.90.

I think I should have been reading this thread more often.

[YmoBeThere]

Timing is everything. I’m attempting to determine when to move my TSP from the C, S and I funds to the G Fund. I’m convinced the market is going to take a tumble, but who knows when? Not me for sure.

Yes, timing is very important. And nearly impossible to get right. Why not move a small part of it now, like 5 or 10%? That way, you are no longer waiting for the exact right moment.

[DukieInKansas]

Many Americans certainly think they cannot afford it. Americans are great at confusing wants for needs, living large, and then complaining about the results. It’s possible to personally prepare every meal you eat, drive your car for more than a decade, live in a small house, never go to the movies, etc. However, few Americans are willing to make those financial sacrifices to achieve financial independence.

FTR, my wife completely disagrees with my previous paragraph and has the credit card bills to prove it.

My sister and brother-in-law did a great job with their kids. Involved them in some decisions from a young age - i.e. - Biking Across Kansas vs getting cable. Their youngest was involved in a discussion with a teacher in middle school about whether a cell phone was a necessity or a luxury (she said luxury and teacher said necessity). She is working hard to get a 3rd year with the CDC so she will be vested in the plan. I told all 3 that they should contribute a least the minimum so they got the full match - you don't miss the money if you never see it.

[Bluedog]

Yeah, valuations seem frothy for sure. Problem is they can get even frothier. I expect a pull-back in the next 6-9 months but no idea when. Personally, I'm sitting on some cash on the sidelines and not investing more in taxable at least (and will continue to stockpile cash), but keeping my current positions largely the same and keeping 401k on auto-pilot. When the opportunities present, will look for entry points. International valuations honestly look much better than U.S. (and perhaps small cap U.S. looks more reasonably priced than large/mega-cap). But value plays have been not such a good strategy over the last five years, so who knows.

[Jeffrey]

I think I should have been reading this thread more often.

Maybe.... I’m pretty sure the aluminum shortage instigators are having more fun on their thread.

[Jeffrey]

My sister and brother-in-law did a great job with their kids. Involved them in some decisions from a young age - i.e. - Biking Across Kansas vs getting cable. Their youngest was involved in a discussion with a teacher in middle school about whether a cell phone was a necessity or a luxury (she said luxury and teacher said necessity). She is working hard to get a 3rd year with the CDC so she will be vested in the plan. I told all 3 that they should contribute a least the minimum so they got the full match - you don't miss the money if you never see it.

That’s great to hear! I’ve been teaching finance to my daughter since she was in third grade. She’s now entering seventh grade with a solid financial foundation.

You might want to gift “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing” to your niece(s) and nephew(s). The financial decisions and sacrifices I made before my 30th birthday are the reasons I was financially independent before my 50th birthday.

[Jeffrey]

Timing is everything.

IMO, time is much more critical than timing. I think timing should be minimized and time should be maximized.

[Bob Green]

IMO, time is much more critical than timing. I think timing should be minimized and time should be maximized.

But as you grow older, you have less time. I’ll be 61 next week so my time as a member of the workforce is narrowing.

[YmoBeThere]

IMO, this morning seems like a good time to decrease equity positions. For example, this morning, I sold some of the stock addressed above for $60.90.

Selling off into the close...

[devildeac]

Maybe... I’m pretty sure the aluminum shortage instigators are having more fun on their thread.

And this is why I appreciate this thread and the one referenced above . I must say, I've never been referred to in that manner before and it's quite amusing as opposed to some other accusations recently.

[budwom]

IMO, time is much more critical than timing. I think timing should be minimized and time should be maximized.

yeah, in general I think that trying to time the market is a fool's errand...BUT I'm just having real problems accepting what a previous poster termed "frothy" valuations...frothy as a quickly poured 32 ounce beer.

I just have trouble accepting that future earnings look rosier now than they did late last year...so I'm taking my ball and going home for just a spell...

[Bluedog]

IMO, time is much more critical than timing. I think timing should be minimized and time should be maximized.

Meet Bob, the world's worst market timer:
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/201...-market-timer/

Bob was a terrible market timer with his only stock market purchases being made at the market peaks just before extreme losses...

Luckily, while Bob couldn’t time his buys, he never sold out of the market even once. He didn’t sell after the bear market of 1973-74 or the Black Monday in 1987 or the technology bust in 2000 or the financial crisis of 2007-09.

He never sold a single share.

So how did he do?

Even though he only bought at the very top of the market ['72, '87, '99, 2007], Bob still ended up a millionaire with $1.1 million [with $184,000 invested]

[duke79]

Timing is everything. I’m attempting to determine when to move my TSP from the C, S and I funds to the G Fund. I’m convinced the market is going to take a tumble, but who knows when? Not me for sure.

IMO, time is much more critical than timing. I think timing should be minimized and time should be maximized.

But as you grow older, you have less time. I’ll be 61 next week so my time as a member of the workforce is narrowing.

No doubt timing is everything in the stock market ... in theory. But, as a financial advisor for many years and investing money in the markets for even longer, I have NEVER seen a single person who can time the ups and downs of the stock market with even a medium amount of consistency and accuracy (and never believe anyone who tells you that they can do this). For 98% of people, they should really develop a portfolio of investments (stocks, bonds, real estate, cash, etc) that make sense for their age, risk tolerance, amount of assets, etc. and pretty much stick to that asset allocation over time (re-balancing occasionally and adjusting as you get older and/or your life circumstances change). Just look as this year, how many professional investors, including the multi-billionaire hedge fund managers, sold their stock portfolios in late February and then re-bought in late March? Exactly ZERO.

[Kdogg]

Timing is everything. I’m attempting to determine when to move my TSP from the C, S and I funds to the G Fund. I’m convinced the market is going to take a tumble, but who knows when? Not me for sure.

Tell me when you are ready and I will buy a S&P index ETF. I’m like kryptonite to the market.

These valuations...it’s unreal. The market is flooded with money and the only market force I can see tanking it are interest rates. All that money is chasing yield greater than the near zero of cash/treasuries.

[budwom]

Tell me when you are ready and I will buy a S&P index ETF. I’m like kryptonite to the market.

These valuations...it’s unreal. The market is flooded with money and the only market force I can see tanking it are interest rates. All that money is chasing yield greater than the near zero of cash/treasuries.

that seems to be the prime consideration...for me, zero interest doesn't seem like the worst alternative right now..

[fuse]

Maybe... I’m pretty sure the aluminum shortage instigators are having more fun on their thread.

I can appreciate your sense of humour. 🤣

[DukieInKansas]

That’s great to hear! I’ve been teaching finance to my daughter since she was in third grade. She’s now entering seventh grade with a solid financial foundation.

You might want to gift “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing” to your niece(s) and nephew(s). The financial decisions and sacrifices I made before my 30th birthday are the reasons I was financially independent before my 50th birthday.

I think I'll read that myself. I take the advice of others on my portfolio - I really don't have much of an interest in studying/analyzing individual stocks and mutual funds. I was fortunate enough to go to work for a small business in my 20s where the owner wanted to be able to retire - she started us with a SEP. Once the number of employees reached a certain point, she went with a Simple and I did the max contribution. I tried to talk one of my co-workers into giving up 3% of her gross so she would get the match - immediate 100% return on her investment. Couldn't get her to do it - boss tried as well.

I've been lucky enough to get involved with some good advisors - one convinced me to get long term care insurance when they still had the 10 year pay plan - paid through the nose for it but am done paying and have decent coverage with a respectable company.

[Jeffrey]

But as you grow older, you have less time. I’ll be 61 next week so my time as a member of the workforce is narrowing.

If I were in your situation, then I’d estimate how much total money (increased for future inflation) I’d need to confidently fund the rest of my life (30+ years). I would not move all my money to G, until I had the total amount needed. I’d be much more focused on my time left on earth, than my time left in the workforce, when adjusting my asset allocations.

If ever desired, free confidential advice (worth every penny) is a PM away.