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  1. #1061
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    There is a narrative forming in the media that retail investors have been particularly active during the pandemic and their betting/bullishness have been responsible for for surging valuations in certain areas of the market. Part of the narrative seems to stem from a GS report, which I have not read --- but color me skeptical (with those delicious crayons) about the media reports.

    I'm assuming posters on this thread have seen the narrative forming but here's one example in case not.

  2. #1062
    Closed out my short yesterday morning(with a slight gain). I remain a bit skeptical but not only don’t you fight the Fed, you can’t fight the tape either.

  3. #1063
    The Fed can provide liquidiy, but can it create income statements for companies?

  4. #1064
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Central New York state
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    The Fed can provide liquidity, but can it create income statements for companies?
    Concur - access to cheap capital is keeping afloat a lot of failed companies. Prima facie: mall corner stores, petroleum "dollar" stocks, and more...

    I'm not insightful enough to know/describe the harm, but am convinced that nothing will improve for this class of company/equity and their ultimate failure has just been lobbed into the future ...at a real cost to the taxpayer.

  5. #1065
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Closed out my short yesterday morning(with a slight gain). I remain a bit skeptical but not only donít you fight the Fed, you canít fight the tape either.
    I understand that "you can't fight the fed" statement. What is meant by "you can't fight the tape"?

    thanks!

  6. #1066
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I understand that "you can't fight the fed" statement. What is meant by "you can't fight the tape"?

    thanks!
    It is an old school reference to the ticker tape put out by the stock ticker machine that would print out price quotes of stocks as they traded. Basically it is saying that you can’t fight momentum.

  7. #1067
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    It is an old school reference to the ticker tape put out by the stock ticker machine that would print out price quotes of stocks as they traded. Basically it is saying that you canít fight momentum.
    Aka, the trend is your friend.

  8. #1068
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    It is an old school reference to the ticker tape put out by the stock ticker machine that would print out price quotes of stocks as they traded. Basically it is saying that you canít fight momentum.
    There are momentum ETFs that try to capture that.

  9. #1069
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    The Fed can provide liquidiy, but can it create income statements for companies?
    +1

    I must spread some comments around ... yadda yadda.

  10. #1070
    Maybe not the right place as its an ďantiĒ investment.
    Anyone have any thoughts on HELOCs?

    Considering Third Federal, among others, for some needed home renovations.

  11. #1071
    Quote Originally Posted by fuse View Post
    Maybe not the right place as its an ďantiĒ investment.
    Anyone have any thoughts on HELOCs?

    Considering Third Federal, among others, for some needed home renovations.
    IMO, itís a relatively easy way to borrow significant money at a relatively low rate. I like it even more if you qualify for a tax deduction.

    As for source, Iíd shop for best rates and no/low closing costs.

  12. #1072
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    So, if I'm reading things correctly, the S&P 500 is now up YTD. Even though I get it that the stock market ain't the economy (and yield is nearly impossible to find) this is noteworthy...when we look at earnings forecasts for the next couple years, current valuations are becoming stratospheric. Doesn't mean something bad will happen, but it might...I'll be sitting in the corner watching it unfold...

  13. #1073
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    So, if I'm reading things correctly, the S&P 500 is now up YTD.
    +1.40% YTD at today’s close.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  14. #1074
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    +1.40 YTD at todayís close.
    It's quite remarkable when you think about it...our large companies have better future prospects now than they did last December?

  15. #1075
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    It's quite remarkable when you think about it...our large companies have better future prospects now than they did last December?
    Well, their competition usually comes from small companies and those are the ones getting hammered right now.

  16. #1076
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Well, their competition usually comes from small companies and those are the ones getting hammered right now.
    But that doesn't make their prospects as rosy as the stock market might currently indicate, IMO.

  17. #1077
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I'll be sitting in the corner watching it unfold...
    I understand and appreciate your approach. As you know, most people donít have the luxury of nullifying most investment risk. Clearly, youíve earned the luxury.

    If you donít mind me asking, where is your money currently invested (cash, commodities, etc.)?

  18. #1078
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    I understand and appreciate your approach. Most people donít have the luxury of nullifying most investment risk.

    If you donít mind me asking, where is your money currently invested (cash, commodities, etc.)?
    I will readily acknowledge that my circumstances are different from most people...we don't have kids, so the Prime Directive is capital preservation at this point...very very heavy in cash to answer your question...however, I don't think it would be a bad investment move for people to get a bit cautious now (maybe move more stuff in high quality bonds or cash) because I have trouble seeing P/E ratios (looking forward) staying where they are. But maybe I'm wrong...

  19. #1079
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I will readily acknowledge that my circumstances are different from most people...we don't have kids, so the Prime Directive is capital preservation at this point...very very heavy in cash to answer your question...
    I completely understand... my compliments! If you have all the cash you two will ever need, then why take unnecessary risk?

  20. #1080
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I will readily acknowledge that my circumstances are different from most people...we don't have kids, so the Prime Directive is capital preservation at this point...very very heavy in cash to answer your question...however, I don't think it would be a bad investment move for people to get a bit cautious now (maybe move more stuff in high quality bonds or cash) because I have trouble seeing P/E ratios (looking forward) staying where they are. But maybe I'm wrong...
    I would say that rental properties would be a good investment these days. Housing prices haven't really dropped, but there is a steady income to be made, and the valuations scare me less than the current stock valuations. Of course being a landlord isn't for everybody.

    Commercial real estate looks dead to me. Maybe the play is to buy a brand new office building for pennies on the dollar and convert it to condos.

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