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  1. #1041
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Up 15% today.
    Closed out my trade this evening at $2.20 for HTZ. Probably should have let it run but I bought it yesterday at $4.4623 and will gladly take the 50.7% gain for 25 1/2 hours of ownership.

  2. #1042
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Closed out my trade this evening at $2.20 for HTZ. Probably should have let it run but I bought it yesterday at $4.4623 and will gladly take the 50.7% gain for 25 1/2 hours of ownership.
    Is this the "trading thread" or "investment thread." Mostly kidding...Good job on the trade.

  3. #1043
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Is this the "trading thread" or "investment thread." Mostly kidding...Good job on the trade.

    Thanks! I thought an investment was a trade gone bad?

  4. #1044
    My second short is nicely positive but not nearly enough to offset my long portfolio. I should have done a better job of hedging.

  5. #1045
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    My second short is nicely positive but not nearly enough to offset my long portfolio. I should have done a better job of hedging.
    It looks like the market finally realized that things are not good in the world.

  6. #1046
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    It looks like the market finally realized that things are not good in the world.
    yeah, seriously, the writing has been on the wall for some time, especially if you happen to think that current prices need to be supported by earnings prospects for the next year or two. It's going to be a long, slow recovery for many businesses.
    No time to panic, but the lofty level of prices has been a bit befuddling...

  7. #1047
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    NYC
    I watched the Big Short last night and I think some of what is happening today is my doing. Jinxed us all.

  8. #1048
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    No biggie

    Quote Originally Posted by J4Kop99 View Post
    I watched the Big Short last night and I think some of what is happening today is my doing. Jinxed us all.
    Heck, on Sunday, March 16, 2008, in preparation for a trip to Alaska, my wife, kids, and I watched a documentary about bears in Alaska, featuring a guide that we were going to use when we were in Homer. Learned later that night that Bear Stearns was rescued by JP Morgan. Coincidence? You decide.

  9. #1049
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    yeah, seriously, the writing has been on the wall for some time, especially if you happen to think that current prices need to be supported by earnings prospects for the next year or two. It's going to be a long, slow recovery for many businesses.
    No time to panic, but the lofty level of prices has been a bit befuddling...
    I'm 77% in cash at the moment but see little to no reason for that to go down in the near term.

  10. #1050
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    I'm 77% in cash at the moment but see little to no reason for that to go down in the near term.
    I'm in a similar boat...I enjoy sleeping at night...

  11. #1051
    Quote Originally Posted by J4Kop99 View Post
    I watched the Big Short last night and I think some of what is happening today is my doing. Jinxed us all.
    Some of what happened in the Big Short is apparently happening right now--read this fascinating but scary article from Atlantic:

    To prevent the next crisis, Congress in 2010 passed the Dodd-Frank Act. Under the new rules, banks were supposed to borrow less, make fewer long-shot bets, and be more transparent about their holdings. The Federal Reserve began conducting “stress tests” to keep the banks in line. Congress also tried to reform the credit-rating agencies, which were widely blamed for enabling the meltdown by giving high marks to dubious CDOs, many of which were larded with subprime loans given to unqualified borrowers. Over the course of the crisis, more than 13,000 CDO investments that were rated AAA—the highest possible rating—defaulted.

    The reforms were well intentioned, but, as we’ll see, they haven’t kept the banks from falling back into old, bad habits. After the housing crisis, subprime CDOs naturally fell out of favor. Demand shifted to a similar—and similarly risky—instrument, one that even has a similar name: the CLO, or collateralized loan obligation. A CLO walks and talks like a CDO, but in place of loans made to home buyers are loans made to businesses—specifically, troubled businesses. CLOs bundle together so-called leveraged loans, the subprime mortgages of the corporate world. These are loans made to companies that have maxed out their borrowing and can no longer sell bonds directly to investors or qualify for a traditional bank loan. There are more than $1 trillion worth of leveraged loans currently outstanding. The majority are held in CLOs.

    Unless you work in finance, you probably haven’t heard of CLOs, but according to many estimates, the CLO market is bigger than the subprime-mortgage CDO market was in its heyday. The Bank for International Settlements, which helps central banks pursue financial stability, has estimated the overall size of the CDO market in 2007 at $640 billion; it estimated the overall size of the CLO market in 2018 at $750 billion. More than $130 billion worth of CLOs have been created since then, some even in recent months. Just as easy mortgages fueled economic growth in the 2000s, cheap corporate debt has done so in the past decade, and many companies have binged on it.

    Despite their obvious resemblance to the villain of the last crash, CLOs have been praised by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for moving the risk of leveraged loans outside the banking system. Like former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, who downplayed the risks posed by subprime mortgages, Powell and Mnuchin have downplayed any trouble CLOs could pose for banks, arguing that the risk is contained within the CLOs themselves.

  12. #1052
    Fade the open?

  13. #1053
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Fade the open?
    Sounds prudent... you could get Covid-19 in a Vegas casino.

  14. #1054
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    Sounds prudent... you could get Covid-19 in a Vegas casino.
    Should have placed the bet.

  15. #1055
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Some of what happened in the Big Short is apparently happening right now--read this fascinating but scary article from Atlantic:

    To prevent the next crisis, Congress in 2010 passed the Dodd-Frank Act. Under the new rules, banks were supposed to borrow less, make fewer long-shot bets, and be more transparent about their holdings. The Federal Reserve began conducting “stress tests” to keep the banks in line. Congress also tried to reform the credit-rating agencies, which were widely blamed for enabling the meltdown by giving high marks to dubious CDOs, many of which were larded with subprime loans given to unqualified borrowers. Over the course of the crisis, more than 13,000 CDO investments that were rated AAA—the highest possible rating—defaulted.

    The reforms were well intentioned, but, as we’ll see, they haven’t kept the banks from falling back into old, bad habits. After the housing crisis, subprime CDOs naturally fell out of favor. Demand shifted to a similar—and similarly risky—instrument, one that even has a similar name: the CLO, or collateralized loan obligation. A CLO walks and talks like a CDO, but in place of loans made to home buyers are loans made to businesses—specifically, troubled businesses. CLOs bundle together so-called leveraged loans, the subprime mortgages of the corporate world. These are loans made to companies that have maxed out their borrowing and can no longer sell bonds directly to investors or qualify for a traditional bank loan. There are more than $1 trillion worth of leveraged loans currently outstanding. The majority are held in CLOs.

    Unless you work in finance, you probably haven’t heard of CLOs, but according to many estimates, the CLO market is bigger than the subprime-mortgage CDO market was in its heyday. The Bank for International Settlements, which helps central banks pursue financial stability, has estimated the overall size of the CDO market in 2007 at $640 billion; it estimated the overall size of the CLO market in 2018 at $750 billion. More than $130 billion worth of CLOs have been created since then, some even in recent months. Just as easy mortgages fueled economic growth in the 2000s, cheap corporate debt has done so in the past decade, and many companies have binged on it.

    Despite their obvious resemblance to the villain of the last crash, CLOs have been praised by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for moving the risk of leveraged loans outside the banking system. Like former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, who downplayed the risks posed by subprime mortgages, Powell and Mnuchin have downplayed any trouble CLOs could pose for banks, arguing that the risk is contained within the CLOs themselves.
    Indeed, they try and bar the door on some kind of risky investments only to have another variety pop up...Dodd Frank got essentially neutered in 2017 (I shall say no more as it would drift into politics) so it's only a matter of time before we face another crisis "that no one could foresee" even though it is highly forseeable.

    If you want to read something else scary, check out this excellent book which I just finished, concerning the 2010 Flash Crash. It took years for the regulators to fathom what had happened, which gives you an idea of how much of a handle they have on protecting us, even if they want to. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07WH9YDM8...ng=UTF8&btkr=1

    One some days, working from his bedroom in mom and dad's house, this guy had $32 trillion dollars in futures trades queued up (overwhelming majority, of course, did not get executed). Enjoy!

  16. #1056
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Should have placed the bet.
    The wheel is still turning.

  17. #1057
    The wheel is turning and you can't slow down,
    You can't let go and you can't hold on,
    You can't go back and you can't stand still,
    If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will.

    - Robert Hunter

  18. #1058
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    The wheel is still turning.
    Yes, can't blink.

  19. #1059
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    This is certainly a sign of a frothy market: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hertz-s...ice-bankrupcy/

    Grabbing "equity" in a newly bankrupt company is an exciting new first, evidently...quite a read...

  20. #1060
    "Don't fight the Fed."

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