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  1. #981
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I used to think we were heading for a crash, but I was wrong.

    The fact is that as messed up as the US might be from a budget/debt point of view, every other industrialized country is in worse shape. Therefore the US wins by being the least bad choice.

    At some point there will be a reckoning, but it won't be an American thing it will happen around the entire globe at more or less the same time.
    Yea, no doubt the U.S. (and the entire world's) debt situation is "concerning" but, as Warren Buffet famously said: "Betting against the United States has proven to be a bad bet since 1776"!

    Furthermore, we can always just pay down the debt (although we will never really pay it down but rather just keep it going into eternity) by just printing more money. Warren Buffet also said: "If you're a country, you never want to give up the ability to print money" (which is one of the reasons Greece, Italy, and some of the other Eurozone countries got into trouble - by joining the "Euro", they gave up the right to print their own currency.

  2. #982
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Another market melt-up.
    As I've stated before on this thread, I'm amazed at how well the stock market has done since the lows in late March. I realize investors are looking to a return to normalcy a year or so down the road (and essentially betting that an effective vaccine becomes available and/or some other treatment is developed). Maybe it's because I live in a region of the country that has been absolutely economically devastated by the pandemic and ensuing quarantine but I think there is a substantial possibility that the economic pain lasts longer than what many investors are expecting. I'm even more amazed at how the airline and cruise ship stocks have bounced back from their lows. Carnival Cruise Lines stock, for example, is already up 100% from its lows in March (although still down substantially from its all-time highs). I don't know about others on this board, but I don't plan to take any cruises or voluntarily fly on a commercial jet until the pandemic is well past and an effective vaccine is available.

  3. #983
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    I don't know about others on this board, but I don't plan to take any cruises ...
    In the best of times, I view a cruises as a floating prisons with the possibility of drowning. But they have downsides too.

  4. #984
    Quote Originally Posted by cspan37421 View Post
    In the best of times, I view a cruises as a floating prisons with the possibility of drowning. But they have downsides too.
    LOL, EXACTLY my views too! But I know a LOT of people LOVE to go on cruises.

  5. #985
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    LOL, EXACTLY my views too! But I know a LOT of people LOVE to go on cruises.
    yes, there are two widely differing views on that subject...Only if I'm kidnapped and duct taped will I get on board one of those 3000 passengers ships...at the far other end of the spectrum, we've often talked about getting 3-4 others couples together to fully occupy one of those French River Barge boats...that's a completely different kettle of fish.

    I do know some people who really like the Viking River Cruises, far less crowded than the Holland America/Disney/Carnival gulags of the sea...I might (emphasis) consider something like Viking when I'm in my 80s, unlikely before then.

  6. #986
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Market seems intent on having a rally based much more on hope than reason, but there's nothing wrong with optimism...just think the recovery is going to take a LOT of time, same for earnings (and projections) to back up this rally.

  7. #987
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by cspan37421 View Post
    In the best of times, I view a cruises as a floating prisons with the possibility of drowning. But they have downsides too.

    Thanks for that. It made me laugh. I am only glad that I wasn’t taking a gulp of tea as I read it.
    Kyle gets BUCKETS!
    https://youtu.be/NJWPASQZqLc

  8. #988
    This market makes me think of a particular Dickens line.

  9. #989
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Albemarle, North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    As I've stated before on this thread, I'm amazed at how well the stock market has done since the lows in late March. I realize investors are looking to a return to normalcy a year or so down the road (and essentially betting that an effective vaccine becomes available and/or some other treatment is developed). Maybe it's because I live in a region of the country that has been absolutely economically devastated by the pandemic and ensuing quarantine but I think there is a substantial possibility that the economic pain lasts longer than what many investors are expecting. I'm even more amazed at how the airline and cruise ship stocks have bounced back from their lows. Carnival Cruise Lines stock, for example, is already up 100% from its lows in March (although still down substantially from its all-time highs). I don't know about others on this board, but I don't plan to take any cruises or voluntarily fly on a commercial jet until the pandemic is well past and an effective vaccine is available.
    For what it's worth what we've been told by upper management was that it would take 2 to 3 years for normalcy.
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge" -Stephen Hawking

  10. #990
    Quote Originally Posted by JNort View Post
    For what it's worth what we've been told by upper management was that it would take 2 to 3 years for normalcy.
    Yea, I would guess this is true for certain industries especially - airlines, hotels and hospitality, theme parks (Disney, Universal, etc) and I think it will also depend on how fast (if ever) an effective vaccine can be developed and then given to a substantial percentage of our population.

  11. #991
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by JNort View Post
    For what it's worth what we've been told by upper management was that it would take 2 to 3 years for normalcy.
    Working in the trucking industry and our top management is predicting an L shaped recovery...
    Kyle gets BUCKETS!
    https://youtu.be/NJWPASQZqLc

  12. #992
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Furniture View Post
    Working in the trucking industry and our top management is predicting an L shaped recovery...
    is that even a recovery? Or just a new normal?

  13. #993
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    is that even a recovery? Or just a new normal?
    I guess it depends on how you place the L

  14. #994
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    I guess it depends on how you place the L
    I've been hearing the Nike Swoosh recovery notion, long and slowish, not at all a V.

  15. #995
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I've been hearing the Nike Swoosh recovery notion, long and slowish, not at all a V.
    Yea, I've also heard some "experts" predict that the recovery will be like the Nike swoosh but the stock market seems to predicting a much stronger and faster recovery than that. You have to wonder if the "wisdom of crowds" (the stock market, essentially) will prove to be more accurate?

  16. #996
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    Yea, I've also heard some "experts" predict that the recovery will be like the Nike swoosh but the stock market seems to predicting a much stronger and faster recovery than that. You have to wonder if the "wisdom of crowds" (the stock market, essentially) will prove to be more accurate?
    Is the stock market relatively strong because they predict a swift recovery, or is it strong because there is no where else to put your money and the market is confident that the Fed will not let the market sink?

  17. #997
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Is the stock market relatively strong because they predict a swift recovery, or is it strong because there is no where else to put your money and the market is confident that the Fed will not let the market sink?
    Ah, quite probably a combination of the two...I'm pretty convinced the recovery will take a long time, BUT, it is undeniably true that many pundits have written that there just aren't many investment alternatives. That sure helps prices.

    Hey, for anyone who likes talking investments and also likes a good (pandemic) read, may I strongly suggest Flash Crash by Liam Vaughan, it's about the rather odd chap who caused the 2010 Flash Crash which temporarily caused about $1 trillion in stock losses...he largely operated from his bedroom in his parents house outside London...quite compelling and entertaining...https://www.amazon.com/Flash-Crash-T...s%2C160&sr=1-1

  18. #998
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Is the stock market relatively strong because they predict a swift recovery, or is it strong because there is no where else to put your money and the market is confident that the Fed will not let the market sink?
    Many say it is because it's the best/only alternative. I'm not sure markets works in that manner. Interest rates in Japan have been extremely low for 25 years and the Nikkei is almost exactly where it was 25 years ago!

    I think it's relatively strong because of US Government support. But, how do you value it?

    https://forums.dukebasketballreport...81#post1254481

    Has it added 100 or 1,100 to the S&P 500? I think it's added 500+.

  19. #999
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    At least for my 401k, (knock on wood) it appears like my V shaped recovery took from a high end January 2020 to a low in March 2020 before returning to a January like number at the end of May.

    I hope others are experiencing similar or better.

  20. #1000
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    But let's be honest, the best and brightest MBAs, finance wizards, and the biggest companies and countries in the world all have the same problem as your average idiot with a credit card. Over-extending ourselves is just how our species gets down and it will catch up with the U.S. eventually.
    Ok, I’ll be honest, that’s B.S.

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