Investment Thread

[budwom]

Three words: Gal-Ap-Agos. That's why you go get Ecuador.

good point. I wanted to balance my portfolio, and what better way to do that than to buy a country (Ecuador) that actually means "equator" in German! Playing this thing right down the middle, except for a small position in
Polar Tonic, gin and tonic component, I consider it a Pharma play in this environment.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Three words: Gal-Ap-Agos. That's why you go get Ecuador.

I think the credit rating agencies have them on Rating Watch Evolving

[bundabergdevil]

I think the credit rating agencies have them on Rating Watch Evolving

CrazyNotCrazy, for da(r) win!

[bundabergdevil]

If the news scrawl about the Senate not reaching a deal is true, expect another rough day tomorrow.

[Kdogg]

If the news scrawl about the Senate not reaching a deal is true, expect another rough day tomorrow.

Yup.

Dow futures drop 5%, hitting 'limit down' at the start of futures trading Sunday

[bundabergdevil]

Yup.

Dow futures drop 5%, hitting 'limit down' at the start of futures trading Sunday

New vote at 9:45 AM this morning. Best I can tell nothing has changed and McConnell intentionally set it 15 minutes after the opening bell to make a point and put pressure on passage. Should be an interesting start to the Monday.

[YmoBeThere]

Traded off limit down for most of the night. Fed announced a lot of programs/purchases pushing the market in to positive territory.

[bundabergdevil]

Traded off limit down for most of the night. Fed announced a lot of programs/purchases pushing the market in to positive territory.

That's an understatement. Wow. What other bullets are left in the gun?

[Jeffrey]

That's an understatement. Wow. What other bullets are left in the gun?

A very common belief. IMO, there are many bullets left. Look at what the Fed just did yesterday. Many believed there was little more the Fed could do after lowering the Fed Funds rate to ~ 0%.

IMO, our monetary response is solid and our fiscal response is very slow and sadly political.

[OldPhiKap]

IMO, our monetary response is solid and our fiscal response is very slow and sadly political.

Agreed.

[budwom]

A very common belief. IMO, there are many bullets left. Look at what the Fed just did yesterday. Many believed there was little more the Fed could do after lowering the Fed Funds rate to ~ 0%.

IMO, our monetary response is solid and our fiscal response is very slow and sadly political.

fiscal response may be slow, but it's going to have to be of an extraordinary size, and will likely require multiple infusions...it's going to be a loooong road, so I'm not too upset that the fiscal infusion hasn't begun yet. For sure it'll begin in the next several days.

[bundabergdevil]

fiscal response may be slow, but it's going to have to be of an extraordinary size, and will likely require multiple infusions...it's going to be a loooong road, so I'm not too upset that the fiscal infusion hasn't begun yet. For sure it'll begin in the next several days.

ARRA took ~45 days from senate introduction to POTUS signature and it was approximately half the size of the stimulus package under discussion. ARRA arguably took longer than that if you consider the pre-introduction negotiations.

It's going to be a minute before this gets to Trump's desk. This is the process by design as aggravating as it is in circumstances such as this. It's going to be made more difficult because 5 senators are out and unable to vote. They happen to be republicans (for now) which, politically speaking, gives the democrats more leverage to push for worker protections. That's why vote 1 failed.

There will be plenty of opportunity for the market to spasm around stimulus news for the the foreseeable future.

[budwom]

ARRA took ~45 days from senate introduction to POTUS signature and it was approximately half the size of the stimulus package under discussion. ARRA arguably took longer than that if you consider the pre-introduction negotiations.

It's going to be a minute before this gets to Trump's desk. This is the process by design as aggravating as it is in circumstances such as this. It's going to be made more difficult because 5 senators are out and unable to vote. They happen to be republicans (for now) which, politically speaking, gives the democrats more leverage to push for worker protections. That's why vote 1 failed.

There will be plenty of opportunity for the market to spasm around stimulus news for the the foreseeable future.

yeah, I'd prefer they put some serious thought in it, and have some good arguments about picking winners and losers (because that's what much of this boils down to) rather than feel that have a (completely artificial) today deadline.
A lot of lives (and businesses) will be greatly affected by how the bill is written.

[left_hook_lacey]

yeah, I'd prefer they put some serious thought in it, and have some good arguments about picking winners and losers (because that's what much of this boils down to) rather than feel that have a (completely artificial) today deadline.
A lot of lives (and businesses) will be greatly affected by how the bill is written.

Why can't this bill only be about the virus? Sounds like they're having a hard time agreeing on solar tax credits, union agreements, and emission standards for air lines. None of that has anything to do with the virus at all. Seems like political suicide to hold up such an important bill during a time of crisis, for things that aren't even related to the virus.

Every day that goes by without good news is killing the economy and small businesses.

[budwom]

Why can't this bill only be about the virus? Sounds like they're having a hard time agreeing on solar tax credits, union agreements, and emission standards for air lines. None of that has anything to do with the virus at all. Seems like political suicide to hold up such an important bill during a time of crisis, for things that aren't even related to the virus.

But, this is government we're talking about.

I get your point for sure, but hey, this is American style government, and the fact is that when the government is hurling a trillion or more dollars around, the lobbyists circle like sharks, looking to score a hunk of flesh for their benefactors.

[PackMan97]

Why can't this bill only be about the virus? Sounds like they're having a hard time agreeing on solar tax credits, union agreements, and emission standards for air lines. None of that has anything to do with the virus at all. Seems like political suicide to hold up such an important bill during a time of crisis, for things that aren't even related to the virus.

Every day that goes by without good news is killing the economy and small businesses.

May be getting too close to PPB talk...not sure.

They can hold up a bill like this, because it's "their fault". Imagine me now pointing across the aisle.

[bundabergdevil]

I get your point for sure, but hey, this is American style government, and the fact is that when the government is hurling a trillion or more dollars around, the lobbyists circle like sharks, looking to score a hunk of flesh for their benefactors.

Yeah, this aggravates your average American but loading up “must pass” bills with unconnected pet projects is the oldest legislative trick in the book. The bill champion will argue for a “clean” bill and all the other politicians, and including from his/her own party, will ignore the plea.

Happened with recovery act, 9/11 bills, everything. It just is for better or worse.

This bill failed for other reasons though.

[AustinDevil]

Yeah, this aggravates your average American but loading up “must pass” bills with unconnected pet projects is the oldest legislative trick in the book. The bill champion will argue for a “clean” bill and all the other politicians, and including from his/her own party, will ignore the plea.

Happened with recovery act, 9/11 bills, everything. It just is for better or worse.

This bill failed for other reasons though.

Where are you reading that this bill was held up for unconnected pet projects? I'll just say that is not at all what I am seeing, which is valid discussion over relevant provisions such as to what extent companies receiving money will have to commit to keeping their workforce employed...

[bundabergdevil]

Where are you reading that this bill was held up for unconnected pet projects? I'll just say that is not at all what I am seeing, which is valid discussion over relevant provisions such as to what extent companies receiving money will have to commit to keeping their workforce employed...

I read that implication in left hook’s post above, which is what I was responding to. There are pet projects in the package but I agree with you (and thought my post said as much), it’s being held up because of disagreement on the best way the stimulus should stimulate.

[Kdogg]

There is no reason to have an all encompassing bill.
They could easily pass one bill to get every American that $1000 plus $500 per kid. It would pass in record time. Next have a bill for small businesses. Next airline. Etc. Having this one bill not only complicates the passage, it allows every lobby to try to carve out a slice of pie.