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  1. #481
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    FWIW, I did short an airline into yesterdayís strength. I donít think there is huge downside, but the reality of more canceled flights and lower passenger loads will be even more evident soon. The companies are better run than they used to be, but the industry has a short term problem. (Strictly a trade for me.)
    And here I was thinking about buying JETS (airline ETF) given the 30% drop in 3 weeks. I definitely think they're going to get crushed on earnings, but that has been priced in now. It's currently at levels not seen in 5 years...Having said that, seems a bit risky right now, but may jump in if there's some price stabilization. I think the long-term prospects of airlines hasn't changed, certainly short-term they have.

  2. #482
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Some days it makes sense. Some days it don't.


    MMWWS.jpg

  3. #483
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    And here I was thinking about buying JETS (airline ETF) given the 30% drop in 3 weeks. I definitely think they're going to get crushed on earnings, but that has been priced in now. It's currently at levels not seen in 5 years...Having said that, seems a bit risky right now, but may jump in if there's some price stabilization. I think the long-term prospects of airlines hasn't changed, certainly short-term they have.
    I viewed yesterdayís action as irrational. One major airline announced curbs on flights in April and further cuts to international flights for April and May. Airline stocks went up, I believe pulled by the large index funds. I shorted simply because the news flow didnít match the near term reality. Iím debating taking todayís profit and running even though I view more downside is in the offing.

  4. #484
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    I viewed yesterdayís action as irrational.
    IMO, it made sense that Mr. Market was pleased, and rather surprised, when Sanderís odds decreased substantially overnight.

  5. #485
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    IMO, it made sense that Mr. Market was pleased, and rather surprised, when Sanderís odds decreased substantially overnight.

    Overall, yes. My view was solely focused on the airlines.

  6. #486
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Overall, yes. My view was solely focused on the airlines.
    I suspect (havenít looked) the entire hospitality industry was pulled up yesterday mostly by machines.

    I agree, catching the falling industry knife is dangerous.

  7. #487
    And down some more. It looks like we will get the infamous retesting of the lows from last week. I'll decide at that point whether to let the knife drop.

  8. #488
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Cabbagetown, Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    And down some more. It looks like we will get the infamous retesting of the lows from last week. I'll decide at that point whether to let the knife drop.
    What does let the knife drop mean, exactly? I did a google search and I am still not sure.

    I've been impressed with how you've handled the last week or so, so I am curious... and there are so many stocks I want to buy right now. Staying patient...
    Hard at work making beautiful things.

  9. #489
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Edouble View Post
    What does let the knife drop mean, exactly? I did a google search and I am still not sure.

    I've been impressed with how you've handled the last week or so, so I am curious... and there are so many stocks I want to buy right now. Staying patient...
    I think it's the old saying, "never try to catch a falling knife." When the market is shooting down, step out of the way.

  10. #490
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    My wife and I took about 10-15% of our stock holdings off the table in January because we thought the market was too high. We just put in orders at 5%, 10%, and 15% below market in areas like cyber security, tech, and S&P/Dow index funds.

    So, I guess I'm sorta rooting for the market to go down. I sorta doubt we will get all the orders filled, but the 5% feels like it will get invested.

    -Jason "not making these calls on our own... we have a financial adviser that gives us good advice" Evans
    My 5% purchase orders are pretty close to getting filled at this point. Probably a couple hundred more points and they should start kicking in. I hear ya'll on the knife thing, but I'd rather catch it at a certain point than try to guess at the low and miss out altogether. These funds are for use in 10+ years from now so being exacting it not that big a deal.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  11. #491
    Quote Originally Posted by Edouble View Post
    What does let the knife drop mean, exactly? I did a google search and I am still not sure.

    I've been impressed with how you've handled the last week or so, so I am curious... and there are so many stocks I want to buy right now. Staying patient...
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I think it's the old saying, "never try to catch a falling knife." When the market is shooting down, step out of the way.
    Exactly. Closed it out near the bell this morning. Timing on that trade was lucky. Surprised to see the airlines trading higher. They may be closer to a bottom than I thought. But this is a crazy market.

  12. #492
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Exactly. Closed it out near the bell this morning. Timing on that trade was lucky. Surprised to see the airlines trading higher. They may be closer to a bottom than I thought. But this is a crazy market.
    airlines have the advantage of having an expensive asset (airplanes). So their price can only fall so far, unless of course they go under.

  13. #493
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    airlines have the advantage of having an expensive asset (airplanes). So their price can only fall so far, unless of course they go under.
    They are a relatively high fixed cost model. Exactly what suffers most going in to a recession. That the current situation mainly deals with human interaction further exacerbates the issue for that sector. They should be down more than the market in general. I’m not sure about the above ETF, but the few I’ve been looking at are down 23-27% to the markets 13%. That they are bouncing today could be a sign that they are bottoming and that the market will bottom soon as the hotels are also down less than the market today.
    Last edited by YmoBeThere; 03-06-2020 at 11:27 AM.

  14. #494
    Quote Originally Posted by Edouble View Post
    What does let the knife drop mean, exactly? I did a google search and I am still not sure.

    I've been impressed with how you've handled the last week or so, so I am curious... and there are so many stocks I want to buy right now. Staying patient...
    Iím now close to having 33% of what I sold back in market. Donít wait for the perfect moment. You will likely miss it.

  15. #495
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    airlines have the advantage of having an expensive asset (airplanes). So their price can only fall so far, unless of course they go under.
    a lot of airlines lease a substantial number of planes, so I'm not sure how helpful that is. Basically they own or lease a lot of assets which need to be used...utilization rates have been terrific the past few years, this is definitely a sizeable hiccup.

    Investment-wise, I'm finding this a terrific time to just sit back and wait for things to return to normal...might take weeks, might take months, but they eventually will.

  16. #496
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/busin...ray/index.html

    See that way down there? Those are oil prices. Those wacky Saudis and Russkis can't seem to come to an agreement on production cuts (always a tricky process filled with bombast, and quite often dishonesty)...

  17. #497
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/busin...ray/index.html

    See that way down there? Those are oil prices. Those wacky Saudis and Russkis can't seem to come to an agreement on production cuts (always a tricky process filled with bombast, and quite often dishonesty)...
    Annual demand is expected to drop for the first time since 2008, if I heard the Bloomberg radio discussion correctly.

  18. #498
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Cabbagetown, Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Iím now close to having 33% of what I sold back in market. Donít wait for the perfect moment. You will likely miss it.
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/busin...ray/index.html

    See that way down there? Those are oil prices. Those wacky Saudis and Russkis can't seem to come to an agreement on production cuts (always a tricky process filled with bombast, and quite often dishonesty)...
    I couldn't pass up buying a little Exxon Mobile, a blue chipper with a 7%+ yield.

    I figure they do stuff besides sell gas because they're an "energy company".
    Hard at work making beautiful things.

  19. #499
    Another wild last few minutes of the week...nice bump up...but man, crazy wild ride two weeks in a row.
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  20. #500
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/busin...ray/index.html

    See that way down there? Those are oil prices. Those wacky Saudis and Russkis can't seem to come to an agreement on production cuts (always a tricky process filled with bombast, and quite often dishonesty)...
    Guess Russian doesnít think the rise in price will offset the decrease in production. It costs Russia more to produce a barrel than the Saudis so they have less spread and they need the money more so not surprised.

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