Investment Thread

[YmoBeThere]

I am hearing folks on Bloomberg talk about the market pricing in the fed taking a pause and starting to cut 50 basis points by the end of the year. Does that premise sound off to others? It sure doesn't feel like inflation has slowed much or that the labor market is easing here in the foothills of NC. Seems to me like they've got a ways to go to put real downward pressure on inflation.

What a difference a few days mak, or what the market is actually saying based on yields. Paywalled, but the key point here.

Treasury Yields Climb After Strong Jobs Report
Investors now think there is a roughly 70% chance that Fed will raise rates by 0.25 percentage point in May

By Sam Goldfarb
Updated April 7, 2023 12:50 pm ET
https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasur...eport-824ae4df

[mpj96]

Thanks for the link. I was starting to wonder whether I was missing some canary in the coalmine.

As a counterpoint to my earlier Madoff post, here is a fascinating (also paywalled) article I ran across while reading your article. It delves into the dangers presented by form D filings and provides excellent support for the argument that one should never underestimate the ability of indolence to outperform duty of oversight.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/digging...=WTRN#cxrecs_s

[budwom]

As a very risk averse person with anxiety, I don't know how he slept at night for all those years. I would have been a nervous wreck.

Yes, I wonder about this will all scammers, how can they possibly relax and carry on knowing (as they should) they'll be found out sooner or later. They are obviously wired differently from most of us...

[Jeffrey]

Law and order are very seldom applied to its writers and enforcers! The Department of Justice will very seldom investigate, much less prosecute, any current or former employee from any Federal Regulatory Agency(SEC, OCC, FBI, etc.). I could write a book of horrible examples (if only my attorneys would approve).

[Jeffrey]

I’ll be safe and merely attach a couple very relevant links to Madoff & The SEC….

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene...lker-Lightfoot

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Swanson

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shana_Madoff

[Jeffrey]

Do you have an idea HOW other hedge funds (which are theoretically run by sophisticated financial minds) did not "realize that simple fact" or is that also ascribed to "extreme and constant incompetency" by them?

Pure greed! Madoff did not charge any investment management fees to his feeder funds. Those funds didn’t do any investment work but most collected 2% of AUM and 20% of investment profits.

[Edouble]

I strongly recommend watching Netflix’s “Madoff - The Monster of Wall Street”. It’s about 4 hours and extremely thorough and informative.

My summary:

1. The US Federal Government is completely incompetent and truly has low regard for US citizens.

2. Large US Corporations, and their employees, are basically beyond reproach and will very seldom be held criminally accountable and responsible for their actions.

3. There’s another Madoff coming soon. And, then another.

4. Do everything possible to protect you and your family from # 1, 2, & 3. Financial knowledge and independence are of paramount importance.

Does any of this apply to the MMM litigation? We are talking about US soldiers. Does that differ from US Citizens?

[mpj96]

I’ll be safe and merely attach a couple very relevant links to Madoff & The SEC….

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene...lker-Lightfoot

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Swanson

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shana_Madoff

Very interesting. Strains credulity to believe that those with such close relationships to both the Madoff fraud and the SEC investigations just happened to tremendously benefit from the continuation of the former and the incompetence of the latter.

[Kdogg]

Does any of this apply to the MMM litigation? We are talking about US soldiers. Does that differ from US Citizens?

If the penalty for a crime is a fine, then that law only exists for the lower class.

[YmoBeThere]

Based on today's CPI reading, the new variable rate portion for I Bonds will be 3.38%.

[bundabergdevil]

UPS and other shippers canaries in the coal mine?


https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/04/25/b...own/index.html

[bundabergdevil]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/25/busin...ses/index.html


When you bet on yourself and lose?

[YmoBeThere]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/25/busin...ses/index.html


When you bet on yourself and lose?

I prefer dividends to buybacks, and many buybacks barely offset the dilution of employee options and stock grants.

[YmoBeThere]

UPS and other shippers canaries in the coal mine?


https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/04/25/b...own/index.html

The stories I could tell...

[YmoBeThere]

I'm not sure why the 4-week T-bill yield cratered in April like it did.

usgg1m_ind.jpg

[Jeffrey]

I'm not sure why the 4-week T-bill yield cratered in April like it did.

usgg1m_ind.jpg

The biggest banks had a massive (unprecedented?) deposit inflow and prudently invested most of it short-term?

[bundabergdevil]

ChatGBT outperforms professional investors?

https://money.com/can-chatgpt-predic...arch/?amp=true

Wonder what the careers of the future are going to look like with this thing in full use.

[YmoBeThere]

The biggest banks had a massive (unprecedented?) deposit inflow and prudently invested most of it short-term?

Seems reasonable but there was no move in the 8 or 13 week T bills. Are they that unimaginative?

[Jeffrey]

Seems reasonable but there was no move in the 8 or 13 week T bills. Are they that unimaginative?

They may be that risk adverse given the highly abnormal source of massive deposit inflows. It’s definitely hot money and they have just been shown how quickly it can come and go.

[Jeffrey]

Seems reasonable but there was no move in the 8 or 13 week T bills. Are they that unimaginative?

Regulators are definitely that unimaginative! Regulators are completely reactive and constantly scream “Fire” after the building has burned to the ground.