Investment Thread

[YmoBeThere]

I think we are in a bull market

This is what a bull market looks like. On the heels of not great news yesterday, an initial selloff in the morning but by the afternoon.


Screenshot_20230215_035047.png

[bundabergdevil]

This is what a bull market looks like. On the heels of not great news yesterday, an initial selloff in the morning but by the afternoon.


Screenshot_20230215_035047.png

But tech layoffs?


I am admittedly a retail investor doing the best to learn and make good investment decisions for the family (so, not a professional) but I’ve been having trouble reconciling the various economic strands and coming to the deep recession conclusion that seems to be the prevailing narrative.

[Acymetric]

But tech layoffs?


I am admittedly a retail investor doing the best to learn and make good investment decisions for the family (so, not a professional) but I’ve been having trouble reconciling the various economic strands and coming to the deep recession conclusion that seems to be the prevailing narrative.

"Tech layoffs" sounds scary but it is mostly impacting the very largest (some might say absurdly large) companies in the sector. Anecdotally, small and mid-sized tech companies are still very much in growth mode. Amazon, "Meta" (ugh), Apple, Google, and Microsoft are not literally the economy even though sometimes it feels like it.

[YmoBeThere]

But tech layoffs?


I am admittedly a retail investor doing the best to learn and make good investment decisions for the family (so, not a professional) but I’ve been having trouble reconciling the various economic strands and coming to the deep recession conclusion that seems to be the prevailing narrative.

Are you listening to politicians for your economic forecasts? Because I'm not hearing thecsame thing. Short and shallow and probably in early 2024 is what I'm hearing. I think strong economic numbers such as the labor market buoy the sentiment that a recession is a way off.

I do think that certain segments of the market have gotten ahead of themselves, but those can run for much longer than one might expect and that makes sense to those with more rational investing expectations..

[Jeffrey]

I do think that certain segments of the market have gotten ahead of themselves, but those can run for much longer than one might expect and that makes sense to those with more rational investing expectations..

What are you trying to say about Wheat’s investment plan?

[bundabergdevil]

Are you listening to politicians for your economic forecasts? Because I'm not hearing thecsame thing. Short and shallow and probably in early 2024 is what I'm hearing. I think strong economic numbers such as the labor market buoy the sentiment that a recession is a way off.

I do think that certain segments of the market have gotten ahead of themselves, but those can run for much longer than one might expect and that makes sense to those with more rational investing expectations..

No. You don’t think the narrative from many economic forecasters and banks over the past 6 months has been that a recession is imminent?

As an additional data point, both the companies (traditional industry and MBB) that I’ve worked for in the past year are actively preparing as if a recession is expected.

Like I said, I’ve been somewhat confused but it’s been the chatter, no?

[YmoBeThere]

No. You don’t think the narrative from many economic forecasters and banks over the past 6 months has been that a recession is imminent?

As an additional data point, both the companies (traditional industry and MBB) that I’ve worked for in the past year are actively preparing as if a recession is expected.

Like I said, I’ve been somewhat confused but it’s been the chatter, no?

From some forecasters, yes. Particularly over the summer of 2022, it seemed like many were trying to talk us into a recession. But it did not appear and the economy remained resilient and continues to be so despite higher interest rates. So, what I am hearing now is shallow and later as those who were wrong have had to sing new tunes.

Tech companies got bloated as interest rates remained low for years and their cost of capital was near zero. So, they have been forced into corrective action as money is no longer free. I'm seeing this first hand. But as Acy noted, the tech companies are just a small portion of the total economy.

[budwom]

Yeah there is as endless talk of the imaginary recession which a lot of folks bought in to. Agree that interest rates rising from ludicrously low levels is a necessary adjustment. Looking at the wildly rampant development now in SE North Carolina is pretty amazing.

[YmoBeThere]

Shorted a little SPY today at 412.13 The market has gotten a little too exuberant particularly as inflation data has come in higher than expected, likely leading to interest rates that are higher for longer.

I guess I should clarify, the market has held up better to higher inflation reads than I think it should have, thus the short position. And it really is a tiny short position.

[bundabergdevil]

My father retired at 50 as a career public servant (military). Super frugal and never remarried after he divorced my mom. Never owned a property in his life.

Retired at low 7 figure, 20 years later at mid-7 figures despite a 50k a year travel budget.

Taught me a lot about money but nothing about parenting. A wash, I think.

[YmoBeThere]

Yeah there is as endless talk of the imaginary recession which a lot of folks bought in to.

A "creator" I follow on the 'tube (more than 1MM followers) was talking about selling half their car collection because of the "recession" we are in. What came to mind was, "No, you were just in a part of the economy that gave away stupid money because it was free. This isn't a recession, this is just your part of the economy coming back to reality."

[Jeffrey]

Taught me a lot about money but nothing about parenting. A wash, I think.

Unfortunately, I completely understand. However, being taught what not to do is also a very valuable lesson. My daughter has benefited greatly.

[PackMan97]

"Tech layoffs" sounds scary but it is mostly impacting the very largest (some might say absurdly large) companies in the sector. Anecdotally, small and mid-sized tech companies are still very much in growth mode. Amazon, "Meta" (ugh), Apple, Google, and Microsoft are not literally the economy even though sometimes it feels like it.

Negative. Lots of small and medium sized tech companies are feeling the pain. It is not just the large ones.

The tech sector, small companies included are only 1.5‰ of the economy or do and for the most parts are finding jobs before severance runs out.

Media is over hyping it, but for those affected it really sucks.

[Jeffrey]

Media is over hyping it, but for those affected it really sucks.

Have you found a new home?

[PackMan97]

Have you found a new home?

Almost.

Had one offer pulled at the last minute due to macro economic conditions. It was the smallest company I've interviewed with at about 20 employees.

Another indicated on Friday they'd make me an offer on Tuesday when they can get me the paperwork.

A third, I think I'm their second choice and their first is stringing them along.

So hopefully, yes I have found a home... But not official yet.

[acdevil]

Almost.

Had one offer pulled at the last minute due to macro economic conditions. It was the smallest company I've interviewed with at about 20 employees.

Another indicated on Friday they'd make me an offer on Tuesday when they can get me the paperwork.

A third, I think I'm their second choice and their first is stringing them along.

So hopefully, yes I have found a home... But not official yet.

Good luck. The whole process completely sucks.

[PackMan97]

Good luck. The whole process completely sucks.

Yes it does. Offer received and accepted. Best of all...vacation/party time for the next month since I don't start for some time.

[elvis14]

Yes it does. Offer received and accepted. Best of all...vacation/party time for the next month since I don't start for some time.

Congratulations hope the entire ordeal turns out in your favor.

[YmoBeThere]

This is what a bull market looks like. On the heels of not great news yesterday, an initial selloff in the morning but by the afternoon.


Screenshot_20230215_035047.png

Hmmm, is the bull market over?

[Jeffrey]

Offer received and accepted. Best of all...vacation/party time for the next month since I don't start for some time.

Awesome; I’m very happy for you and your family!

Enjoy your well deserved vacation! It may be a long time until you have another month off. Here’s hoping!