Investment Thread

[PackMan97]

Xi seems to have dropped the benevolent pragmatic dictator ruse and leaned into his more authentic Genghis Khan/Stalin stylings.

As they say, pragmatism isn't always pragmatic.

[budwom]

Xi seems to have dropped the benevolent pragmatic dictator ruse and leaned into his more authentic Genghis Khan/Stalin stylings.

yeah, like they used to say, if you want something done right, do it yourself. I think Xi takes that rather literally.

[Kdogg]

To be fair, for our children, we could only hope to have a politician reign in outrageous educational costs the way Xi did. But nobody in the US has the balls. And I say this as the grandson of someone who had to depart China because the CCP won.

Although the expenses didn’t help, that wasn’t the rationale. China has a demographic problem. The birthrate is below the replacement rate of 2.1. They scrapped One Child years ago but it haven’t really changed much. This might come off as benevolent but the real reason is to incentivize people having more children. It was getting economically unviable to have two children.

It seems Xi is trying to have a new Cultural Revolution without the death, destruction and agony. For lack of better words, he wants to go back to simpler times socially but keep the economic gains in aggregate and not concentrated. Limiting kids video times, cracking down on celebrity heroism, monitoring and controlling spending, breaking up big companies are policies to reach this goal. He doesn’t want companies to be too successful to limit their influence. He doesn’t want people to have too much money either because they would indulge is wasteful spending (unless they are CCP members).

From an investment stand point I would be weary of investing in anything too exposed to the Chinese consumer. I believe until things settle down Chinese discretionary spending has peaked on foreign goods. I would be weary of investing in companies heavily exposed to that segment. (I’m looking at my beloved Nike.) Of course what would I know? I’m just some rando on the internet.

[thedukeman]

Where's my man Wheat been? Been thinking of him seeing the crypto bounce as of late.

[Indoor66]

Where's my man Wheat been? Been thinking of him seeing the crypto bounce as of late.

Probably out spending his profits.

[thedukeman]

Probably out spending his profits.

I hope so!

[Indoor66]

Boca Grande can be expensive 😂

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Boca Grande can be expensive 😂

You’ve got that right.

I got my new boat in so I took off for a few weeks and went fishing around the south. Now I’m back to the grind.

Bitcoin is getting stronger everyday. I’m excited to see where it will be in 3-5 years. Same with Ethereum. I feel like I entered the crypto space at a good time, and still think it’s plenty early, so if you’re on the fence, it’s not to late, IMO.

Last week Twitter, with around 400 million active users worldwide communicating by text, became the first social media site to enable the Bitcoin Lightning Network for sending money between its users via a tip feature. Users can send as little as 1 penny as easy as sending a tweet. No fees.

What the internet did for communication, the Bitcoin Lightning Network is doing for exchanging monetary value, regardless of the currency used. And this is live now, with crypto adoption happening faster than the adoption of the internet back in the 90’s.

Big players, Hedge funds, institutions, family wealth managers, countries, etc… are now steadily buying crypto, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum. It’s becoming mainstream as we speak.

The SEC just yesterday approved a Bitcoin/Ethereum ETF based on companies with Bitcoin/Eth exposure, the first step before approving a futures based ETF, and then ultimately a spot market ETF for masses of retail investors. ETF’s are coming and will likely be approved within a few months.

All these things, and much more, are helping to place demand for Bitcoin. And Bitcoins are getting more scarce by the day. People and institutions are buying and holding, not selling. Only a max of 21,000,000 Bitcoin will ever be available, in a world of around 8 billion.

Prices must go up if you believe in supply and demand, like I do.

[bundabergdevil]

You’ve got that right.

I got my new boat in so I took off for a few weeks and went fishing around the south. Now I’m back to the grind.

Bitcoin is getting stronger everyday. I’m excited to see where it will be in 3-5 years. Same with Ethereum. I feel like I entered the crypto space at a good time, and still think it’s plenty early, so if you’re on the fence, it’s not to late, IMO.

Last week Twitter, with around 400 million active users worldwide communicating by text, became the first social media site to enable the Bitcoin Lightning Network for sending money between its users via a tip feature. Users can send as little as 1 penny as easy as sending a tweet. No fees.

What the internet did for communication, the Bitcoin Lightning Network is doing for exchanging monetary value, regardless of the currency used. And this is live now, with crypto adoption happening faster than the adoption of the internet back in the 90’s.

Big players, Hedge funds, institutions, family wealth managers, countries, etc… are now steadily buying crypto, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum. It’s becoming mainstream as we speak.

The SEC just yesterday approved a Bitcoin/Ethereum ETF based on companies with Bitcoin/Eth exposure, the first step before approving a futures based ETF, and then ultimately a spot market ETF for masses of retail investors. ETF’s are coming and will likely be approved within a few months.

All these things, and much more, are helping to place demand for Bitcoin. And Bitcoins are getting more scarce by the day. People and institutions are buying and holding, not selling. Only a max of 21,000,000 Bitcoin will ever be available, in a world of around 8 billion.

Prices must go up if you believe in supply and demand, like I do.

I do not see a helipad on that boat!

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I do not see a helipad on that boat!

In due time….

So I’ve been reading all the original emails collected from “Satoshi Nakamoto” from back when Bitcoin was proposed and implemented to get my best understanding possible of Bitcoin. Not being a real tech guy, much of it goes over my head, but it’s fascinating to see the goals and thought process in action.

Here’s the email from “opening day”…


Cryptography Mailing List
Bitcoin v0.1 released
2009-01-08 19:27:40 UTC - Original Email - View in Thread
Announcing the first release of Bitcoin, a new electronic cash
system that uses a peer-to-peer network to prevent double-spending.
It's completely decentralized with no server or central authority.

See bitcoin.org for screenshots.

Download link:
http://downloads.sourceforge.net/bit...coin-0.1.0.rar

Windows only for now. Open source C++ code is included.

- Unpack the files into a directory
- Run BITCOIN.EXE
- It automatically connects to other nodes

If you can keep a node running that accepts incoming connections,
you'll really be helping the network a lot. Port 8333 on your
firewall needs to be open to receive incoming connections.

The software is still alpha and experimental. There's no guarantee
the system's state won't have to be restarted at some point if it
becomes necessary, although I've done everything I can to build in
extensibility and versioning.

You can get coins by getting someone to send you some, or turn on
Options->Generate Coins to run a node and generate blocks. I made
the proof-of-work difficulty ridiculously easy to start with, so
for a little while in the beginning a typical PC will be able to
generate coins in just a few hours. It'll get a lot harder when
competition makes the automatic adjustment drive up the difficulty.
Generated coins must wait 120 blocks to mature before they can be
spent.

There are two ways to send money. If the recipient is online, you
can enter their IP address and it will connect, get a new public
key and send the transaction with comments. If the recipient is
not online, it is possible to send to their Bitcoin address, which
is a hash of their public key that they give you. They'll receive
the transaction the next time they connect and get the block it's
in. This method has the disadvantage that no comment information
is sent, and a bit of privacy may be lost if the address is used
multiple times, but it is a useful alternative if both users can't
be online at the same time or the recipient can't receive incoming
connections.

Total circulation will be 21,000,000 coins. It'll be distributed
to network nodes when they make blocks, with the amount cut in half
every 4 years.

first 4 years: 10,500,000 coins
next 4 years: 5,250,000 coins
next 4 years: 2,625,000 coins
next 4 years: 1,312,500 coins
etc...

When that runs out, the system can support transaction fees if
needed. It's based on open market competition, and there will
probably always be nodes willing to process transactions for free.

Satoshi Nakamoto

[YmoBeThere]

Tesla nearing a trillion dollar valuation.

[Bluedog]

Tesla nearing a trillion dollar valuation.

I think it hit it today...Crazy.

For comparison:

• GM: $84B (8.4% of Tesla)
  Ford: $63B (6.3% of Tesla)
  Toyota: $240B (24% of Tesla)

So, yeah, GM + Ford + Toyota = ONE THIRD of Tesla's market cap.

Toyota had $275B in revenue in 2021. Tesla had $42B (or 15% of Toyota). Of course, revenue isn't everything, but clearly TSLA is trading at a much much higher multiple...

[Skydog]

I think it hit it today...Crazy.

For comparison:

• GM: $84B (8.4% of Tesla)
  Ford: $63B (6.3% of Tesla)
  Toyota: $240B (24% of Tesla)

So, yeah, GM + Ford + Toyota = ONE THIRD of Tesla's market cap.

Toyota had $275B in revenue in 2021. Tesla had $42B (or 15% of Toyota). Of course, revenue isn't everything, but clearly TSLA is trading at a much much higher multiple...

Have to go with Tesla - Gamestop is dead.

[LasVegas]

I think it hit it today...Crazy.

For comparison:

• GM: $84B (8.4% of Tesla)
  Ford: $63B (6.3% of Tesla)
  Toyota: $240B (24% of Tesla)

So, yeah, GM + Ford + Toyota = ONE THIRD of Tesla's market cap.

Toyota had $275B in revenue in 2021. Tesla had $42B (or 15% of Toyota). Of course, revenue isn't everything, but clearly TSLA is trading at a much much higher multiple...

What makes Tesla so valuable? It’s not like their tech is any better. Maybe the charging network they have built out or the autonomous driving?

[bundabergdevil]

What makes Tesla so valuable? It’s not like their tech is any better. Maybe the charging network they have built out or the autonomous driving?

Speculation.

Betting on a future that may or may not come to pass.

[Bluedog]

What makes Tesla so valuable? It’s not like their tech is any better. Maybe the charging network they have built out or the autonomous driving?

Speculation.

Betting on a future that may or may not come to pass.

They also HAVE seen much higher year-over-year growth than other automakers so certainly that is a factor just like Amazon's stock price was skyrocketing even when they weren't profitable simply because they were showing immense growth. But, yeah, TSLA is being priced much more like a tech company and speculatively than a traditional automaker. Whether that is logical or not, time will tell, but certainly from a "traditional" sense, TSLA looks incredibly overpriced. Sometimes normal rules don't apply to anomalous companies and TSLA continues to prove people wrong. I have no idea what the future holds, but you'd have to think they'll have a lot more competition in the electric car market space from backers that are investing a lot of money in their own R&D.

[LasVegas]

They also HAVE seen much higher year-over-year growth than other automakers so certainly that is a factor just like Amazon's stock price was skyrocketing even when they weren't profitable simply because they were showing immense growth. But, yeah, TSLA is being priced much more like a tech company and speculatively than a traditional automaker. Whether that is logical or not, time will tell, but certainly from a "traditional" sense, TSLA looks incredibly overpriced. Sometimes normal rules don't apply to anomalous companies and TSLA continues to prove people wrong. I have no idea what the future holds, but you'd have to think they'll have a lot more competition in the electric car market space from backers that are investing a lot of money in their own R&D.

Yeah, I just don’t see it. Pretty soon every automaker will have electric vehicles and then eventually they will all have autonomous driving. So Tesla will be right in the mix with everyone else. The f-150 lighting, as an example, will crush the cyber truck. I just don’t see how people can speculate that Tesla is worth so much more. The playing field has been pretty equal in the automotive industry for a long time.

[Section 15]

Yeah, I just don’t see it. Pretty soon every automaker will have electric vehicles and then eventually they will all have autonomous driving. So Tesla will be right in the mix with everyone else. The f-150 lighting, as an example, will crush the cyber truck. I just don’t see how people can speculate that Tesla is worth so much more. The playing field has been pretty equal in the automotive industry for a long time.

This is a good example of what Morningstar calls a narrow moat. A moat in their description is how vulnerable a company is to competition. A company has a wide moat if the cost of competing with it is too high for other companies to enter the business. A classic example is a pipeline company, where the regulatory climate and the capital cost of creating a competing pipeline is too great for there to be much competition.

As you say, Tesla, while early in the market, is facing strong competition from larger, more established companies. There are lots of examples of early innovators having initial success that brings in competition that eats their lunch. One of Morningstar's significant metrics when evaluating a stock is how wide they judge the company's moat.

It will be interesting to see how well Tesla's stock holds up over the next few years.

Section 15

[bundabergdevil]

There are lots of examples of early innovators having initial success that brings in competition that eats their lunch.

My MySpace page begs to differ.

[Section 15]

my myspace page begs to differ.

:d:d:d:d:d

(edit: this should have been a string of smiley emojs)