Investment Thread

[mpj96]

[Insert picture of Statler & Waldorf].

Statler: There's a lot to be said about this program.

Waldorf: Yeah. . . Too bad you can't say it on a family show.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

So last fiscal year Duke and many other schools had huge returns on their endowments, and it was thought that crypto-related investments particularly enhanced Duke’s returns. Their FY ends in two weeks. I’m curious to see who FY22 finishes - it likely won’t be pretty.

[Bluedog]

So last fiscal year Duke and many other schools had huge returns on their endowments, and it was thought that crypto-related investments particularly enhanced Duke’s returns. Their FY ends in two weeks. I’m curious to see who FY22 finishes - it likely won’t be pretty.

Other alternative investments like real estate and commodities also play a factor -- those have continued to do well largely, so, as you say, we shall see.

I found this RE: Duke:

"The MPI model estimated that Duke’s portfolio exposure to Coinbase is 2.32 percent, which translates into $200 million at the beginning of fiscal year 2021, when the endowment managed $8.5 billion. Markov’s model estimated that Coinbase’s return for fiscal year 2021 is 430 percent, placing the value of the investment in Duke’s portfolio at 10 percent for 2021."
https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...s-Stellar-Year

I guess Duke was an investor in Coinbase pre-IPO. Coinbase is down ~76% YoY. Still, at 2.32% of the endowment while $200M invested is a lot of money in a single company, it's not a huge percentage of the total. But I assume trades were made so who knows if it' still 2.32% or not. Maybe they cashed out not long after IPO days. Also don't know if Duke's endowment has direct cypto investments or not.

[YmoBeThere]

Yet another month gone, value hit pretty hard as they started selling off the energy and commodity stocks:

The market of large cap US stocks (S&P 500) since the end of November: (as of 6/30/2022)

iShares Core S&P U.S. Value ETF (IUSV) price at close 11/30/2021: 71.77
Dividend disbursement (12/17/2021): 0.383
Dividend disbursement (3/30/2022): 0.370
Dividend disbursement: (6/17/2022): 0.305
Adjusted cost basis: 70.712
Close 6/30: 66.88

Return during that period: -5.4%

iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF (IUSG) price at close 11/30/2021: 113.07
Dividend disbursement (12/17/2021): 0.18
Dividend disbursement (3/30/2022): 0.200
Dividend disbursement (6/17/2022): 0.169
Adjusted cost basis: 112.521
Close today: 83.70

Return during that period: -25.6%

Overall value has outperformed growth by 20.2% during this time period but has gone negative also.

[budwom]

Other alternative investments like real estate and commodities also play a factor -- those have continued to do well largely, so, as you say, we shall see.

I found this RE: Duke:

"The MPI model estimated that Duke’s portfolio exposure to Coinbase is 2.32 percent, which translates into $200 million at the beginning of fiscal year 2021, when the endowment managed $8.5 billion. Markov’s model estimated that Coinbase’s return for fiscal year 2021 is 430 percent, placing the value of the investment in Duke’s portfolio at 10 percent for 2021."
https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...s-Stellar-Year

I guess Duke was an investor in Coinbase pre-IPO. Coinbase is down ~76% YoY. Still, at 2.32% of the endowment while $200M invested is a lot of money in a single company, it's not a huge percentage of the total. But I assume trades were made so who knows if it' still 2.32% or not. Maybe they cashed out not long after IPO days. Also don't know if Duke's endowment has direct cypto investments or not.

Yeah, I get some money from Duke via a CRT and it's going to be fascinating to see whether or not they unloaded a bunch of Coinbase stock before the plummet. I would like to think they did. We won't know the overall endowment return until the Fall when the Duke board meets and releases the returns ending 6/30/22. Of course they never give detail on what they're doing, that's the secret sauce (I know of people who have tried to find out).

If my math is close to correct, I think the S&P has been down 15% since last 6/30...so buffered by the other investments (real estate, commodities, bonds et al) one can hope the Duke returns decline by less than that amount unless Coinbase and other volatile holdings did some damage.

[bundabergdevil]

Bump. Don't want this thread to feel like the less favored child to the crypto thead.

[Kdogg]

Bump. Don't want this thread to feel like the less favored child to the crypto thead.

But there’s no juice in indexing and buying on fundamentals.

Got the quarterly 529 plan statement. Not as bad as I thought but ouch. The kids are pre 1st grade so they are in the highest risk plan.

[Bluedog]

But there’s no juice in indexing and buying on fundamentals.

Got the quarterly 529 plan statement. Not as bad as I thought but ouch. The kids are pre 1st grade so they are in the highest risk plan.

If it makes you feel any better, low risk plans full of bonds have also tanked this year. (Yes, not as badly as stocks, but historically bad for bonds whereas we expect volatility for stocks). So we have lots of time to make up for it whereas those about to enter college do not (although they've enjoyed a runup in earlier years). I'm in the same boat as you with young kid 529s, and yeah, not a great quarterly statement...

[gep]

If it makes you feel any better, low risk plans full of bonds have also tanked this year. (Yes, not as badly as stocks, but historically bad for bonds whereas we expect volatility for stocks). So we have lots of time to make up for it whereas those about to enter college do not (although they've enjoyed a runup in earlier years). I'm in the same boat as you with young kid 529s, and yeah, not a great quarterly statement...

Probably best to skip the next couple of quarterly statements...

[bundabergdevil]

We’ve had some conversations on here about how, when and what education is provided or available around finance and investing.

Thought this was a pretty cool program in my neck of the woods.

https://www.inquirer.com/business/bu...-20220709.html


I’ve mentioned before my wife spent some time time with a non-profit seeking to build job and financial ability. Opened my eyes to the payday loan economy and the number of people without basic understanding of the banking system (let alone trust).

[YmoBeThere]

...people without basic understanding of the banking system (let alone trust).

I thought we were trying to keep this separate from the crypto thread.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

We’ve had some conversations on here about how, when and what education is provided or available around finance and investing.

Thought this was a pretty cool program in my neck of the woods.

https://www.inquirer.com/business/bu...-20220709.html


I’ve mentioned before my wife spent some time time with a non-profit seeking to build job and financial ability. Opened my eyes to the payday loan economy and the number of people without basic understanding of the banking system (let alone trust).

Seems like a great program except I cringed when it mentioned crypto several times. I guess the goal is to let them know the risks involved so they will hopefully stay far away until they have money they can afford to lose but at this stage, the message for people like this should just be "stay far away" then move on to more important topics.

The power of interest, both working for you and against you, is amazing. When used in your favor it can make you very wealthy. But when used against you, such as with credit card debt, it can do a lot of damage. The most important lesson is to not buy things you can't truly afford, even if you really, really want it.

Part of the lesson should also be about how expensive it is to raise a child. I remember in middle school 30+ years ago we had "egg babies" in health class where you had to take care of an egg. Part of the curriculum involved budgeting for this baby, including what diapers, food, child care, etc. would cost. It was very eye opening.

[bundabergdevil]

Seems like a great program except I cringed when it mentioned crypto several times. I guess the goal is to let them know the risks involved so they will hopefully stay far away until they have money they can afford to lose but at this stage, the message for people like this should just be "stay far away" then move on to more important topics.

The power of interest, both working for you and against you, is amazing. When used in your favor it can make you very wealthy. But when used against you, such as with credit card debt, it can do a lot of damage. The most important lesson is to not buy things you can't truly afford, even if you really, really want it.

Part of the lesson should also be about how expensive it is to raise a child. I remember in middle school 30+ years ago we had "egg babies" in health class where you had to take care of an egg. Part of the curriculum involved budgeting for this baby, including what diapers, food, child care, etc. would cost. It was very eye opening.

I would surmise that virtually every business/finance/investment education today touches on crypto, if for no other reason than interest is through the roof.

[Bluedog]

I would surmise that virtually every business/finance/investment education today touches on crypto, if for no other reason than interest is through the roof.

Interestingly, a very popular investing forum, Bogleheads, has banned any talk about crypto.

[acdevil]

Interestingly, a very popular investing forum, Bogleheads, has banned any talk about crypto.

Sounds like heaven

[cspan37421]

Interestingly, a very popular investing forum, Bogleheads, has banned any talk about crypto.

For context, it's worth noting what all they ban:

- Discussion of politics and religion

- Non-actionable topics ("If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include:
US or world economic, political, tax, health care and climate policies
conspiracy theories of any type
discussions of the crimes, shortcomings or stupidity of other people" [stories of personal stupidity is exempted from this prohibition!])

- Greater Fool Investing Strategies ("Discussions of investment strategies based on securities or physical assets that have no underlying value or negative expected long term returns are prohibited. Examples include: cryptocurrencies; lottery tickets; tulip bulbs; Ponzi, pyramid, and multi-level marketing schemes; affinity frauds; and market manipulation schemes.")

- Medical issues

Bogleheads is a good forum.

I'm surprised at the long leash it enjoys here, since the crypto advocacy in that thread seems like a repetitive rant.

[Skydog]

For context, it's worth noting what all they ban:



Bogleheads is a good forum.

I'm surprised at the long leash it enjoys here, since the crypto advocacy in that thread seems like a repetitive rant.

While one poster there does make the same points repeatedly I still find that thread useful. In rebutting some of his claims my understanding of crypto, blockchains and the nature of money itself has increased. Plus it is a crypto thread so it is easily avoided by anyone not interested in the topic.

[YmoBeThere]

Monthly inflation numbers were out today. Headline number up 9.1% YOY (top series), "core" up 5.9% and appears to have peaked in March(bottom series). The headline number is interesting as we started seeing energy(oil/gas prices) drop starting in the middle of June. The market sold off in the morning, an excellent time to buy some things, but as I type it is flat to slightly down.

Screenshot 2022-07-13 131858.jpg

[bird]

Monthly inflation numbers were out today. Headline number up 9.1% YOY (top series), "core" up 5.9% and appears to have peaked in March(bottom series). The headline number is interesting as we started seeing energy(oil/gas prices) drop starting in the middle of June. The market sold off in the morning, an excellent time to buy some things, but as I type it is flat to slightly down.

Screenshot 2022-07-13 131858.jpg

CNN has a meter up today that says: "Extreme Fear is driving the US market"

For some reason that struck me as being funny!

[tommy]

CNN has a meter up today that says: "Extreme Fear is driving the US market"

For some reason that struck me as being funny!

I think many with investment portfolios and/or 401(k)s representing their retirement money, would fail to see the humor.