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  1. #1901
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    We watched the WeWork documentary last night, which was an interesting and recent story of valuation and due diligence gone very wrong.

  2. #1902
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    We watched the WeWork documentary last night, which was an interesting and recent story of valuation and due diligence gone very wrong.
    There was due diligence?

  3. #1903
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Delta finally spooking the market?

  4. #1904
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Delta finally spooking the market?
    Whoa, Nelly!!!

  5. #1905
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Whoa, Nelly!!!
    Feels about time, TBH.

  6. #1906
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Feels about time, TBH.
    Psych. Made you look. I don’t like irrationality so I’m chalking this to programed trading.
    Last edited by Kdogg; 07-20-2021 at 02:32 PM.

  7. #1907
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Psych. Made you look. I don’t like irrationality so I’m chalking this to programed trading.
    LOL! Fundamentals so good.

  8. #1908
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Delta finally spooking the market?
    at least it's spooking Delta Airlines, and the overall travel industry (for good reason I might add).

  9. #1909
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Up and up she goes…

  10. #1910
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Up and up she goes…
    I - of course - shifted most of my retirement money out of stocks 2 summers ago because (a) I was retiring and wanted to play it safe but mainly because b) It was clear to anyone with a brain that "the bubble was about to burst."

    Of course the stock market has shot up rapidly ever since I got out. And this is not a surprise - I have a history.

    I made my my first real buy of tech stocks in - wait for it - December of 1999. And a lot more in the first months of 2000. My friends were getting rich off their Amazon and Dell stocks and I wanted in. A few people were scare-mongering butmost investors disagreed and kept buying. While I was new to the investing game I still did my own research. I plotted out a nice logarithmic graph of the 25 year history of the Nasdaq and guess what - it was an almost perfectly straight, ascending line! Of course if you looked short term and didn't go with a log graph it looked looked a bit messy at times. But put it on a log scale to compensate for the exponential growth, smooth out the weekly fluctuations and it was one of the straightest lines in stock history! So I though what are the odds that a 25 year long straight line is going to suddenly veer down and fall off a cliff? Not likely at all - am I right? To heck with the worriers! So I bought a bunch of stock and sure enough, most of them went up. I was making money so I bought more, this time on margin. Margin just gave me more leverage for this gold boom, right?!

    Besides I had calculated I could still hold on the stocks even if they ALL lost 10-25%. And in fact my very first purchase - Dell - did exactly that, dropping right after I bought. But I'm no dummy I waited until it was down 15-20% and I bought more! I was reading The Motley Fool and they were saying this was bargain time - buy, buy, buy. And sure enough the Dell stock came back like I had predicted! This was going great! So in the next couple months when my other tech stocks started dropping I snapped up even more. Bargain shopping! My investment was getting bigger so now everything was on margin. Now I just had to wait a couple weeks for the market to come to its senses. They would shoot right back up and I would be printing money! Good times ahead.

    Then they started dropping and didn't turn around. Oh, wait... they are dropping more? Ok, that's worrying. What, even more?? This stock that Motley Fool said was a can't miss? It just declared bankruptcy and had been cooking the books?? My nice 25 year logarithm graph immediately turned straight down?? My stocks have dropped 50+% and my broker is calling them all in???

    Does anyone want not know how that stock escapade ended? Let's just say I learned my lesson. And over the next 20 years I'm been mostly an index fund guy. Low fees, diversified, reliable. Stayed in it until two years ago. You know, when I knew for sure that there was about to be a crash. Because I'm sooo good at timing the market, right?

    Ok, now to recent history. My hobby is playing poker regularly and of course all my poker friends are heavily into crypto. Some of them for 3+ years. I don't trust it and stay the hell away as they get richer and richer. And they keep talking about it, night after night. (Does anyone not know where this is headed?)

    So this year I finally I give in and make my first bitcoin purchase of my life this year. I didn't buy a lot - I did learn the lessons of the tech crash of 2000. But just for fun and because of the possible huge upside I thought I would take a small shot. If I lose it I lose it. On May 11, at 9pm, I make my first and only purchase of Bitcoin (and a little Ethereum). And, honest to god, within 3 hours bitcoin had already dropped a couple thousand dollars. The next day (or maybe it was two days?) Elon said Tesla was no longer taking bitcoin and starts talking about the waste of energy of bitcoin. And - of course - within a week of my first lifetime purchase it has the biggest price decline in history, dropping slightly over $20k in 8 days!

    So anyway - my question to you guys is this - How much will you collectively pay me to NOT shift my money back into stocks now?? I'm thinking it's got to be worth in the low millions. You can start a gofundme page if that works best for you.
    Last edited by Skydog; 07-26-2021 at 10:07 PM.

  11. #1911
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    I - of course - shifted most of my retirement money out of stocks 2 summers ago because (a) I was retiring and wanted to play it safe but mainly because b) It was clear to anyone with a brain that "the bubble was about to burst."

    Of course the stock market has shot up rapidly ever since I got out. And this is not a surprise - I have a history.

    I made my my first real buy of tech stocks in - wait for it - December of 1999. And a lot more in the first months of 2000. My friends were getting rich off their Amazon and Dell stocks and I wanted in. A few people were scare-mongering butmost investors disagreed and kept buying. While I was new to the investing game I still did my own research. I plotted out a nice logarithmic graph of the 25 year history of the Nasdaq and guess what - it was an almost perfectly straight, ascending line! Of course if you looked short term and didn't go with a log graph it looked looked a bit messy at times. But put it on a log scale to compensate for the exponential growth, smooth out the weekly fluctuations and it was one of the straightest lines in stock history! So I though what are the odds that a 25 year long straight line is going to suddenly veer down and fall off a cliff? Not likely at all - am I right? To heck with the worriers! So I bought a bunch of stock and sure enough, most of them went up. I was making money so I bought more, this time on margin. Margin just gave me more leverage for this gold boom, right?!

    Besides I had calculated I could still hold on the stocks even if they ALL lost 10-25%. And in fact my very first purchase - Dell - did exactly that, dropping right after I bought. But I'm no dummy I waited until it was down 15-20% and I bought more! I was reading The Motley Fool and they were saying this was bargain time - buy, buy, buy. And sure enough the Dell stock came back like I had predicted! This was going great! So in the next couple months when my other tech stocks started dropping I snapped up even more. Bargain shopping! My investment was getting bigger so now everything was on margin. Now I just had to wait a couple weeks for the market to come to its senses. They would shoot right back up and I would be printing money! Good times ahead.

    Then they started dropping and didn't turn around. Oh, wait... they are dropping more? Ok, that's worrying. What, even more?? This stock that Motley Fool said was a can't miss? It just declared bankruptcy and had been cooking the books?? My nice 25 year logarithm graph immediately turned straight down?? My stocks have dropped 50+% and my broker is calling them all in???

    Does anyone want not know how that stock escapade ended? Let's just say I learned my lesson. And over the next 20 years I'm been mostly an index fund guy. Low fees, diversified, reliable. Stayed in it until two years ago. You know, when I knew for sure that there was about to be a crash. Because I'm sooo good at timing the market, right?

    Ok, now to recent history. My hobby is playing poker regularly and of course all my poker friends are heavily into crypto. Some of them for 3+ years. I don't trust it and stay the hell away as they get richer and richer. And they keep talking about it, night after night. (Does anyone not know where this is headed?)

    So this year I finally I give in and make my first bitcoin purchase of my life this year. I didn't buy a lot - I did learn the lessons of the tech crash of 2000. But just for fun and because of the possible huge upside I thought I would take a small shot. If I lose it I lose it. On May 11, at 9pm, I make my first and only purchase of Bitcoin (and a little Ethereum). And, honest to god, within 3 hours bitcoin had already dropped a couple thousand dollars. The next day (or maybe it was two days?) Elon said Tesla was no longer taking bitcoin and starts talking about the waste of energy of bitcoin. And - of course - within a week of my first lifetime purchase it has the biggest price decline in history, dropping slightly over $20k in 8 days!

    So anyway - my question to you guys is this - How much will you collectively pay me to NOT shift my money back into stocks now?? I'm thinking it's got to be worth in the low millions. You can start a gofundme page if that works best for you.
    I enjoyed your post o’ woe but take no joy in your actual woe. Hopefully you’ve reaped benefits from the buy and hold game.

    I reserve a small amount for unicorn hunting but the vast majority of my pre and post tax savings go into pretty basic stuff every month.

  12. #1912
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Boca Grande Florida
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    …So this year I finally I give in and make my first bitcoin purchase of my life this year. I didn't buy a lot - I did learn the lessons of the tech crash of 2000. But just for fun and because of the possible huge upside I thought I would take a small shot. If I lose it I lose it. On May 11, at 9pm, I make my first and only purchase of Bitcoin (and a little Ethereum). And, honest to god, within 3 hours bitcoin had already dropped a couple thousand dollars. The next day (or maybe it was two days?) Elon said Tesla was no longer taking bitcoin and starts talking about the waste of energy of bitcoin. And - of course - within a week of my first lifetime purchase it has the biggest price decline in history, dropping slightly over $20k in 8 days!
    Hang in there and hold on to all your Bitcoin, you’ll be good in time.

    I started dipping my toe into Bitcoin back in February and saw some nice gains quickly only to watch them disappear with the big correction in May, just like you.

    Before I got in, I made my mind up to give it at least three years without selling anything because I knew it was going to be volatile. I also made a conscious effort to stay away from all the meme coins and small cap stuff.

    Once I stepped in, I also made my mind up to spend my spare time studying Bitcoin to really understand what I was getting into.

    I learned a lot, but it took a lot of time to get comfortable with it all.

    With Bitcoin, what’s coming is fascinating to me. It will transform how we interact with and transfer money, no matter the currency.

    I learned that with Bitcoin, it’s more than a currency, or a store of value digital property, (think digital gold), it’s also a ultra secure network.

    With the layer 2 Lightning network built on top of the Bitcoin blockchain, it’s now possible to stream/send money anywhere in the world in real time? With almost no fees!

    With a Strike Lightning wallet on your phone, you can now send any currency(Dollar?)direct from your bank account …it will convert into Bitcoin on the fly, then convert out of Bitcoin into any currency your destination wallet wants(Pound/peso?)…and do all that in about 3 seconds with basically no fees? We’ve never seen anything like that in the history of the world’s ability to exchange money.

    Layer 3 will be all the businesses that will be built on that monetary transaction platform. It’s all coming, and fast.

    Studying it all the past couple of months after that 50% correction made me double down and buy more on that dip. I’m that impressed.

    There is a finite number of Bitcoin’s that will ever be available, and I believe each will be extremely valuable moving forward as all the network applications come into play.

    I just saw where somebody, some entity or institution, just bought 1 Billion dollars worth of Bitcoin today. Smarter people than me are putting big money behind it.

    I’m buying all I can and holding on to it.

  13. #1913
    Has anyone got a good resource for learning investment basics? This would be simply for personal betterment and growth, not looking for a new career. I'd be happy to enroll in an online class if anyone has personal experience with one that can help out a beginner.

    Thanks!

  14. #1914
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    I - of course - shifted most of my retirement money out of stocks 2 summers ago because (a) I was retiring and wanted to play it safe but mainly because b) It was clear to anyone with a brain that "the bubble was about to burst."

    Of course the stock market has shot up rapidly ever since I got out. And this is not a surprise - I have a history.

    I made my my first real buy of tech stocks in - wait for it - December of 1999. And a lot more in the first months of 2000. My friends were getting rich off their Amazon and Dell stocks and I wanted in. A few people were scare-mongering butmost investors disagreed and kept buying. While I was new to the investing game I still did my own research. I plotted out a nice logarithmic graph of the 25 year history of the Nasdaq and guess what - it was an almost perfectly straight, ascending line! Of course if you looked short term and didn't go with a log graph it looked looked a bit messy at times. But put it on a log scale to compensate for the exponential growth, smooth out the weekly fluctuations and it was one of the straightest lines in stock history! So I though what are the odds that a 25 year long straight line is going to suddenly veer down and fall off a cliff? Not likely at all - am I right? To heck with the worriers! So I bought a bunch of stock and sure enough, most of them went up. I was making money so I bought more, this time on margin. Margin just gave me more leverage for this gold boom, right?!

    Besides I had calculated I could still hold on the stocks even if they ALL lost 10-25%. And in fact my very first purchase - Dell - did exactly that, dropping right after I bought. But I'm no dummy I waited until it was down 15-20% and I bought more! I was reading The Motley Fool and they were saying this was bargain time - buy, buy, buy. And sure enough the Dell stock came back like I had predicted! This was going great! So in the next couple months when my other tech stocks started dropping I snapped up even more. Bargain shopping! My investment was getting bigger so now everything was on margin. Now I just had to wait a couple weeks for the market to come to its senses. They would shoot right back up and I would be printing money! Good times ahead.

    Then they started dropping and didn't turn around. Oh, wait... they are dropping more? Ok, that's worrying. What, even more?? This stock that Motley Fool said was a can't miss? It just declared bankruptcy and had been cooking the books?? My nice 25 year logarithm graph immediately turned straight down?? My stocks have dropped 50+% and my broker is calling them all in???

    Does anyone want not know how that stock escapade ended? Let's just say I learned my lesson. And over the next 20 years I'm been mostly an index fund guy. Low fees, diversified, reliable. Stayed in it until two years ago. You know, when I knew for sure that there was about to be a crash. Because I'm sooo good at timing the market, right?

    Ok, now to recent history. My hobby is playing poker regularly and of course all my poker friends are heavily into crypto. Some of them for 3+ years. I don't trust it and stay the hell away as they get richer and richer. And they keep talking about it, night after night. (Does anyone not know where this is headed?)

    So this year I finally I give in and make my first bitcoin purchase of my life this year. I didn't buy a lot - I did learn the lessons of the tech crash of 2000. But just for fun and because of the possible huge upside I thought I would take a small shot. If I lose it I lose it. On May 11, at 9pm, I make my first and only purchase of Bitcoin (and a little Ethereum). And, honest to god, within 3 hours bitcoin had already dropped a couple thousand dollars. The next day (or maybe it was two days?) Elon said Tesla was no longer taking bitcoin and starts talking about the waste of energy of bitcoin. And - of course - within a week of my first lifetime purchase it has the biggest price decline in history, dropping slightly over $20k in 8 days!

    So anyway - my question to you guys is this - How much will you collectively pay me to NOT shift my money back into stocks now?? I'm thinking it's got to be worth in the low millions. You can start a gofundme page if that works best for you.
    You, my friend who bought his home at the market peak and I should start a company. We could greenmail companies and entire industries to keep us away. It would be the Anti Buffett.

  15. #1915
    Join Date
    Nov 2020
    Location
    Western NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Has anyone got a good resource for learning investment basics? This would be simply for personal betterment and growth, not looking for a new career. I'd be happy to enroll in an online class if anyone has personal experience with one that can help out a beginner.

    Thanks!
    Here are some resources that I have found useful:

    The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, specifically the revised edition (Collins Business Essentials) that has commentary by Jason Zweig. The commentary is what makes this worth reading. It's a classic, but a bit dense until you read Zweig's commentary.

    Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation (no not Star Trek) by David Dreman. This book pretty much sums up how I view investing; as a marathon, not a sprint, with a healthy skepticism for the investment fad of the week (or anything less than 5 years). One note of caution. At one point a mutual fund gave Dreman control of their investing strategy based on the ideas expressed in this book and other places. He failed at it miserably.

    For light, but informative reading, anything by Roger Lowenstein. I enjoyed his biography of Warren Buffett, and I thought his book about the financial meltdown of 2008-2009 read like a murder mystery.

    Finally, I think that Morningstar has an excellent series of newsletters that not only make reasoned investment recommendations, but attempts to educate the reader as to their process for making them.

    If you like numbers, ValueLine has a lot of them. I used to like the Motley Fool, but gave up on them about ten years ago. They began to repeat themselves too much and seemed interested using their basic newsletter as a platform for upselling additional services.

    Hope this helps,
    Section 15

  16. #1916
    Quote Originally Posted by Section 15 View Post
    Here are some resources that I have found useful:

    The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, specifically the revised edition (Collins Business Essentials) that has commentary by Jason Zweig. The commentary is what makes this worth reading. It's a classic, but a bit dense until you read Zweig's commentary.

    Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation (no not Star Trek) by David Dreman. This book pretty much sums up how I view investing; as a marathon, not a sprint, with a healthy skepticism for the investment fad of the week (or anything less than 5 years). One note of caution. At one point a mutual fund gave Dreman control of their investing strategy based on the ideas expressed in this book and other places. He failed at it miserably.

    For light, but informative reading, anything by Roger Lowenstein. I enjoyed his biography of Warren Buffett, and I thought his book about the financial meltdown of 2008-2009 read like a murder mystery.

    Finally, I think that Morningstar has an excellent series of newsletters that not only make reasoned investment recommendations, but attempts to educate the reader as to their process for making them.

    If you like numbers, ValueLine has a lot of them. I used to like the Motley Fool, but gave up on them about ten years ago. They began to repeat themselves too much and seemed interested using their basic newsletter as a platform for upselling additional services.

    Hope this helps,
    Section 15
    That's very helpful. I've been considering a remote class through our local community college and would love recommendations on something similar online with a level of instruction and testing.

  17. #1917
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Has anyone got a good resource for learning investment basics? This would be simply for personal betterment and growth, not looking for a new career. I'd be happy to enroll in an online class if anyone has personal experience with one that can help out a beginner.

    Thanks!
    Read the Bogleheads wiki. Here's the Getting Started page:
    https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

  18. #1918
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    That's very helpful. I've been considering a remote class through our local community college and would love recommendations on something similar online with a level of instruction and testing.
    If you have a company that sells something you like, start listening to the transcripts from their earnings calls, hearing the questions analysts ask, and looking at their investor presentations. You can access all of this on the Investor Relations page of publicly traded company websites.


    Make sure it’s a company that sells something you’re interested in though and want to learn about. I think it’s interesting to learn about how a product or business fits into macrotrends.

  19. #1919
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    To augment a good book, I'd also suggest getting a subscription to Bloomberg BusinessWeek...now that I'm retired it keeps me up to date on a whole lot of financial and economic issues, which I find useful. It's best to understand what's going on out there if you're thinking of investing...

  20. #1920
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    You, my friend who bought his home at the market peak and I should start a company. We could greenmail companies and entire industries to keep us away. It would be the Anti Buffett.
    I'm in- it's past time to monetize our specialized skill set. For a mere 15% of a company's total investments we promise to not tank their portfolio. Oh, they will laugh and refuse at first. But after we buy in and crash a couple of their key sectors -- believe me they will be coming around, begging us to take their money!

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