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  1. #1961
    Big miss on payroll numbers 235k vs. 720k expected. Driven by much lower leisure and hospitality hiring. July was revised up by 110k and June 23k.

    Rates will likely stay lower for longer even as the Feb begins to taper its bond buying.

  2. #1962
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Big miss on payroll numbers 235k vs. 720k expected. Driven by much lower leisure and hospitality hiring. July was revised up by 110k and June 23k.

    Rates will likely stay lower for longer even as the Feb begins to taper its bond buying.
    I am guessing Powell's term at Fed will be ending in early 2022 once his term is up and the President can appoint someone new. Maybe Yellen comes back.

    Not saying that would necessarily change the Fed's policies/strategies, but it may. I think two other fed members' terms are expiring during this Presidential cycle.

    Even with the major miss on payroll numbers, the market is basically flat (S&P 500 down 0.27% right now). Market seems to be always resilient to bad news recently and can do no wrong. Long treasuries are taking a dive.

  3. #1963
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    The brutal stretch for the hospitality industry continues. A number of very good restaurants around here have completely given up.

  4. #1964
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Looking like a fun morning.

  5. #1965
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Looking like a fun morning.
    Ouch. It's not even October yet.

  6. #1966
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Ouch. It's not even October yet.
    Surprise.

  7. #1967
    We were due for a pullback...the ridiculous run-up due to the Fed and money flowing is not sustainable. Went up too much, too fast. I think we'll see more small steady declines over the next month or so.

  8. #1968
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    We were due for a pullback...the ridiculous run-up due to the Fed and money flowing is not sustainable. Went up too much, too fast. I think we'll see more small steady declines over the next month or so.
    I think the current issues have a lot more to do with China right now. The Chinese authorities have been beating the crap out of a lot of corporations, and specifically today, https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/20/inves...day/index.html a major conglomerate finds itself in an ugly debt crisis, to which many banks may be exposed.

    I would not want to be heavily invested in China right now. The government is getting antsy when companies do too well and garner influence, and a number of others have huge financial problems.

    And, of course, we ARE due for a pullback.

  9. #1969
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I think the current issues have a lot more to do with China right now. The Chinese authorities have been beating the crap out of a lot of corporations, and specifically today, https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/20/inves...day/index.html a major conglomerate finds itself in an ugly debt crisis, to which many banks may be exposed.

    I would not want to be heavily invested in China right now. The government is getting antsy when companies do too well and garner influence, and a number of others have huge financial problems.

    And, of course, we ARE due for a pullback.
    I wonder if “the Chinese government isn’t going to bail out [insert mega entity - local government, corporation, etc] this time” the new “Japanese bond yields are going to explode.” Maybe a new widow maker trade in the making.

  10. #1970
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    I wonder if “the Chinese government isn’t going to bail out [insert mega entity - local government, corporation, etc] this time” the new “Japanese bond yields are going to explode.” Maybe a new widow maker trade in the making.
    Good question...whether they choose to bail them out or not, the government sure is facing some challenges in micro managing everything. (I do think they'll make sure these guys don't go down).

  11. #1971
    When the man makes all the rules, and a player follows the rules and wins big, then the man should not take the player’s prize away.

  12. #1972
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    When the man makes all the rules, and a player follows the rules and wins big, then the man should not take the player’s prize away.
    OK, but the rule-maker and enforcer has to be funded. And the entities that ensure winning players get to keep their winnings, they have to be funded too. Where to get that funding? hmmmm ... guess that's a PPB topic.

  13. #1973
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    When the man makes all the rules, and a player follows the rules and wins big, then the man should not take the player’s prize away.
    are you talking about China or the world in general? The Chinese have made it very clear that they don't embrace free range capitalism...

  14. #1974
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    are you talking about China or the world in general? The Chinese have made it very clear that they don't embrace free range capitalism...
    I was addressing worldwide investment laws, rules, and regulations. I agree, China has been very clear about their position and their rules were stated upfront. I’ll leave it alone since it already headed the PPB direction.

  15. #1975
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    I was addressing worldwide investment laws, rules, and regulations. I agree, China has been very clear about their position and their rules were stated upfront. I’ll leave it alone since it already headed the PPB direction.
    I hear ya. I think the China thing is fascinating, though...they gave capitalism the green light some years ago, now Xi has decided he doesn't like companies being TOO successful, or gathering too much influence. This does not produce a predictable investment environment...(not that I invest directly there).

  16. #1976
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I hear ya. I think the China thing is fascinating, though...they gave capitalism the green light some years ago, now Xi has decided he doesn't like companies being TOO successful, or gathering too much influence. This does not produce a predictable investment environment...(not that I invest directly there).
    Strongly agree!

    It’s hard for the best players, to play best, when the rules are changed in the middle of the game.

  17. #1977
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Good luck with it, my experiences were not great,, Though you don't mention how far from the final offer price that $1.50 is. I tried that game in the 90s when offers were mostly stock+cash. SMH. With an all-cash offer your risk is certainly less.
    Deal recently closed with 90+% shareholders approving.

  18. #1978
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    China just decalred that all cryptocurrency transactions are illegal. Those guys have been busy bees of late.

  19. #1979
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    China just decalred that all cryptocurrency transactions are illegal. Those guys have been busy bees of late.
    Xi seems to have dropped the benevolent pragmatic dictator ruse and leaned into his more authentic Genghis Khan/Stalin stylings.

  20. #1980
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Overseas
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I hear ya. I think the China thing is fascinating, though...they gave capitalism the green light some years ago, now Xi has decided he doesn't like companies being TOO successful, or gathering too much influence. This does not produce a predictable investment environment...(not that I invest directly there).
    There were a dozen or so families that controlled China before the revolution.

    Those same dozen or so families are still highly influential within the CCP.

    This is an "old wealth" targeting the "new wealth" situation.

    To be fair, for our children, we could only hope to have a politician reign in outrageous educational costs the way Xi did. But nobody in the US has the balls. And I say this as the grandson of someone who had to depart China because the CCP won.

    On a higher level, I'm glad I moved our IRA's out of FHKCX and into the more broad FZILX early this year. No more market timing; I'll keep it here for the long-term.

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