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  1. #801
    I must give our Federal Government credit (especially, since I usually give them the opposite), the combination of a very strong monetary and fiscal response appears to have created a temporary bottom for equities. I find that very impressive, and possibly inappropriate, given current market levels are substantially above Christmas Eve 2018. Admittedly, I also greatly feared a million US fatalities and our government appears certain of no more than 200k.

  2. #802
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    I must give our Federal Government credit (especially, since I usually give them the opposite), the combination of a very strong monetary and fiscal response appears to have created a temporary bottom for equities. I find that very impressive, and possibly inappropriate, given current market levels are substantially above Christmas Eve 2018. Admittedly, I also greatly feared a million US fatalities and our government appears certain of no more than 200k.
    I agree with your general sentiment. However, I don't think 200k deaths would be something to be proud of. That is 70x September 11. Can you imagine if we had two September 11s back-to-back let alone SEVENTY?? The numbers are numbing. I see current projections from University of Washington as median deaths to be around 80k, which is still exceptionally high compared to other nations which kept their numbers much much lower...

    Of course I'm hoping for the best from a health and economic perspective, but sometimes they are in conflict with one another unfortunately. I also don't think we've necessarily hit the bottom -- depends how long this plays out and what happens with stay at home orders/hospital capacities/death numbers. I could see us testing the previous bottom in late April as we're supposed to be at peak around April 16 and if numbers aren't declining significantly late next month, there could be worries ahead... Hopefully that's not the case but not sure we're out of the woods.

    But of course without the huge action by feds/Congress the market would be much worse off currently, that I agree with.

  3. #803
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    I agree with your general sentiment. However, I don't think 200k deaths would be something to be proud of. That is 70x September 11. Can you imagine if we had two September 11s back-to-back let alone SEVENTY?? The numbers are numbing. I see current projections from University of Washington as median deaths to be around 80k, which is still exceptionally high compared to other nations which kept their numbers much much lower...
    We both agree, every death is horrific and incredibly hard to accept.

    IMO, 80k is probably not exceptionally high compared to other nations. It looks like China may have already truly had 40k. All things considered, 80k sounds much better than my fears and only 2 times a bad flu season. Unfortunately, I doubt we stop at 80k.

    I also agree that we may retest the lows. I'm personally 30% cash because I expect the S&P in the 2,050-2,150 area within the next 60 days. I'm also currently 50% equity, so I'm a winner either way. Just gotta stay alive!

  4. #804
    March - in like a lion, out like a lamb?

  5. #805
    A bit more to the downside.

    Worst quarter ever?

  6. #806
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    A bit more to the downside.

    Worst quarter ever?
    Worst 1st quarter ever, 2nd worst quarter ever.

    Nibbling at a couple stocks this morning.

    Interestingly, one of the big brokerage houses did a survey and got a unanimous result that everyone expects us to retest the lows. Fait accompli or time to go against the consensus?

  7. #807
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Worst 1st quarter ever, 2nd worst quarter ever.

    Nibbling at a couple stocks this morning.

    Interestingly, one of the big brokerage houses did a survey and got a unanimous result that everyone expects us to retest the lows. Fait accompli or time to go against the consensus?
    My general sense is the economic shock is going to be bigger and take longer to recover from than the original “V” predicted...and that perhaps this is beginning to be digested more fully.

    I just don’t think consumer behavior is going to boomerang back to pre-Coronavirus activity when we’re given the all clear to emerge from our burrows.

  8. #808
    Every time I try to conceive of the cascading effects of all the rental and debt obligations that will be breached today (and next month, etc.), my mind just stops.

    What say the DBR investors?

  9. #809
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    Every time I try to conceive of the cascading effects of all the rental and debt obligations that will be breached today (and next month, etc.), my mind just stops.

    What say the DBR investors?
    Nobody knows nuthin'. Not saying that glibly, just suggesting that it's impossible to say if all this already priced in or not. I remain fully invested although have a tiny hedge just for psychological reasons. It's clear the negative economic impact is just getting started, but less clear on the stock market given it's forward looking. Still, seems like a lot of people are choosing to sit in cash or gold to see how things play out. I'm a long term investor so staying invested and TLHing when I can. I do think there is increased risk right now in the bond market with an increased risk of default. Cash is about to pay nothing, so there's no good place to park money either so hopefully will be compensated for risk of investing in equities.

  10. #810
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    Every time I try to conceive of the cascading effects of all the rental and debt obligations that will be breached today (and next month, etc.), my mind just stops.

    What say the DBR investors?
    FUBAR

    Someone is going to need to take one for the team. The only question is who will it be? Renters and folks who have a mortgage? Landlords? Banks? I don't know the answer.

    It would be great if there were some way to just push "pause" on all the bills.

  11. #811
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    FUBAR

    Someone is going to need to take one for the team. The only question is who will it be? Renters and folks who have a mortgage? Landlords? Banks? I don't know the answer.

    It would be great if there were some way to just push "pause" on all the bills.
    As a commercial real estate lawyer, I am hearing the word “pause” a lot this week. As well as the phrases “we need to face this together” and “shared pain.”

    Reminds me a bit of the days of “pretend and extend” back in the late ‘00s.

  12. #812
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    As a commercial real estate lawyer, I am hearing the word “pause” a lot this week. As well as the phrases “we need to face this together” and “shared pain.”

    Reminds me a bit of the days of “pretend and extend” back in the late ‘00s.
    Mud lawyers are all the same. 😂🤣😎

  13. #813
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    As a commercial real estate lawyer, I am hearing the word “pause” a lot this week. As well as the phrases “we need to face this together” and “shared pain.”

    Reminds me a bit of the days of “pretend and extend” back in the late ‘00s.
    It probably ends up working ok for mortgages, it probably doesn't work that well for landlords with tenants who might not be around long enough to make good on whatever rent they didn't pay during the shutdown depending on what's left on their lease.

  14. #814
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    Every time I try to conceive of the cascading effects of all the rental and debt obligations that will be breached today (and next month, etc.), my mind just stops.

    What say the DBR investors?
    I’ve never seen markets manipulated as much as they are currently. We were told nowhere near this level of intervention would occur again. It’s creating many unique opportunities and risks that history books don’t address. Without intervention, I suspect many markets would have faced horrible liquidity problems and the S&P would have already gone south of 1,700. Said differently, Warren Buffett would have made another fortune with his cash.

  15. #815
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Cabbagetown, Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    I’ve never seen markets manipulated as much as they are currently. We were told nowhere near this level of intervention would occur again. It’s creating many unique opportunities and risks that history books don’t address. Without intervention, I suspect many markets would have faced horrible liquidity problems and the S&P would have already gone south of 1,700. Said differently, Warren Buffett would have made another fortune with his cash.
    On Monday, I shorted Nike, Boeing, McDonalds and went long on SDOW and SPXU.

    Cashed in today and used the money on Goldman Sachs, JPM, Citi, AT&T, Cisco, Microsoft.

    My cruise stocks are still up from when I bought them in Feb, but just barely.

    Ready to buy more SPXU when we see 2600 again. If I misjudge the last bear downswing, I'll just eat a few hundred bucks.

    I kinda want to short Boeing again but they scare me.
    Hard at work making beautiful things.

  16. #816
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Robert Samuelson

    He's a columnist at the Washington Post, and has been since 1977. He just authored a piece saying for the first time in his life he thinks a depression is possible. Now, I'm not a big fan of his columns, but this is still very sobering. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...a6d_story.html

  17. #817
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    He's a columnist at the Washington Post, and has been since 1977. He just authored a piece saying for the first time in his life he thinks a depression is possible. Now, I'm not a big fan of his columns, but this is still very sobering. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...a6d_story.html

    Goo inside?

  18. #818
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    boston, ma
    I've "long" been a buy-and-hold kind of guy, so this has been a terrific time to average down on companies I strongly believe in: Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), AMZN, Shopify (SHOP), especially as V and MA are testing 2-year lows. Some smart investors I can't remember have said that you make the most money in bear markets. Emotionally, getting in on the Zoom IPO in the low 70s has really helped.

    More recently, long-term puts on the overall market (SPY) dated out to May/June have been a good way to make some good money. Markets are so volatile, I feel quite confident that at some point in the next few months there will be some big tankers like yesterday and last week.
    Duke 5 - UNC 4*

  19. #819
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Goo inside?
    Only one way to find out.

  20. #820
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Nibbling at a couple stocks this morning.
    Bought some PNC at 88.75. Looking at MS also...

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