Thank you. I'm in my early 60s and retired, so I am fairly risk averse.
Also, I read John Hussman's market commentaries, and he's pretty bearish these days, to put it mildly. He just put out a new commentary today: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200326/
It also includes some thoughts on the coronavirus.
Hard at work making beautiful things.
Beware of negative thought spirals, they can be as hazardous as cock-eyed optimism.
Good point,YmoBeThere.
That said, I'm still going to say something negative. Looking at unemployment # breakdown this AM makes me think #s are subject to significant artificial deflation due to processing capability. One example: All of CA had less than 200k applications filed last week despite being shut down? That seems more indicative of a bottleneck in processing than reflective of actual unemployment.
Bad news (self inflicted) for most of the huge cruise lines, who are based outside the U.S. to avoid taxes and regulation, no bailout money for you (thus far, anyway). Good luck getting billions from Panama, Liberia and Bermuda.
"I'll tumble for 'ya
I'll tumble for 'ya
I'll tumble for 'ya
I'll tumble
for you . . . ."
- Dow Jones
(That's not funny at all, but I can't get it out of my head now)
Reminds me of the NC State PE 100 song. Gwad that was an awful experience. Basically for our "fitness test" you had a 1 ft tall box in front of you and every time the song said up you went up, every time it said down, you went down. Sometimes they would leave up some words just to mix it up, but you kept with the beat. The difference between your pulse before and afterward determined your "fitness score".
Up Up, Down Down
Up Up, Down Down
.. ... , Down Down
.. ... , Down Down
Up Up, ... ....
Up Up, ... ...
Up Up, Down Down
Up Up, Down Down
Now 28 years later, it has still left a scar.
John Hussman has been calling for a market crash for a decade.
2010: “Investors dangerously underestimate the risk of an abrupt and possibly severe equity market plunge.”
2011: “the expected return/risk profile of the stock market has shifted to hard-negative.”
2012: “The present menu of investment opportunities continues to be among the worst in history.”
2013: “stock returns prospectively are very low.”
2014: “What concerns us beyond valuations is the full ensemble of overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions.”
2015: “Exit now.”
2016: “current extremes imply 40-55 percent market losses…. These are not worst-case scenarios, but run-of-the-mill expectations.”
2017: “the most broadly overvalued moment in market history.”
2018: “The music is fading out, and a trap-door has opened up in the floor, but they’re still dancing.”
2019: “a projected 50-65 percent market loss over the completion of this cycle is actually somewhat optimistic.”
Through 2019, Hussman’s Strategic Growth fund suffered a 10-year average annual “return” of -7.54 percent, compared to a 13.24 percent average annual gain by its benchmark, the S&P 500. For a decade, Hussman kept charging investors 1.25 percent annually to lose their money. Not surprisingly, over those ten years, his assets under management declined from $6.7 billion to barely $250 million. He's done very well so far this year, but not because he predicted a global pandemic.
Hussman is very smart and fun to read, even though he blamed people for "declaring victory at halftime" twice -- six years apart. He looks great now, but only if you don't know the context.
Perma-bears have called seventeen of the last five recessions. Or something like that.
Having said that, it’s always good to know what both extremes are asserting. Kernels of truth/risk that may be worth considering . . . .
This reminds me of Mathers fund, which I invested in approx 30 years ago. IIRC was managed by Henry Van der Eb.
Looking back, I guess the manager's outlook appealed to my pessimistic nature. But not for long.
But when it happened, did you say "called it!"
Perma.jpg
I think Hussman's views on valuation are sound, but don't think he's often right on timing (nor do I think anyone else is particularly good on timing). Right now, though, we are in a period where we will be hitting new lows, I think, so Hussman's thoughts on how far the market might fall are instructive.
While they do point out issues that have merit, I don't find many of those who tend to be bearish most of the time particularly helpful. What will turn them positive on stocks and the market? We know that over long periods of time the market goes up in value. A view other than short-term to the contrary doesn't make sense to me.
Now, it would be fair to say that I may have mis-characterized Hussman's views or being overly broad in my interpretation as him as a permabear.
Yea, I have some first-hand experience with the Hussman Funds. I'm the treasurer on the board of a non-profit in my community and when I first took over as the treasurer in 2010, the organization had a substantial percentage of its investment portfolio in one of the Hussman Funds (the previous treasurer, who worked for a hedge fund, thought Hussman was an investment genius - and the Hussman Funds DID have a very strong 10-year investment performance record through about 2009). But then beginning in mid-2009, once the US and other stock markets hit bottom and began going up, John Hussman remained bearish on the economy and stock market and his funds were heavily hedged towards the "short" side. He always said that they tested their portfolios against what had happened during the Great Depression and they expected a further decline in stock prices, even after the 40 to 50% drop during 2008 and 2009. So, I used to faithfully read his weekly market commentary, as the value of our investment in his fund kept going down and down (while our other investments were riding the bull market wave). Finally, after about 12 to 18 months of severe underperformance, we (the finance committee and the board) decided to sell out of the Hussman Fund and redeploy our assets into more traditional "long" investment portfolios (at Vanguard and other money managers).
I've continued to read John Hussman's weekly commentaries, off and on, over the last ten years. He is a smart guy (Stanford PhD in Economics, I believe) but he is living proof that it is VERY difficult to accurately and consistently predict the future and then try to game your investment portfolio on whether or not you think the stock market is going up or down in the future. No doubt he made a tremendous mistake in remaining bearish so long (and he maintains that he is NOT a "perma-bear") and I believe he may have had the worst 10-year record (2009 to 2019) of ANY mutual fund manager in the United States. His funds are up so far in 2020 and he will have his day in the sun for a while. But it will not make up for the huge losses he incurred (for his long-time investors) during the greatest bull market in history!
Texas tea has dropped below two sawbucks for a big gulp.
A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
---Roger Ebert
Some questions cannot be answered
Who’s gonna bury who
We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
---Over the Rhine
The Saudis and Russians showing a marvelous sense of timing.
And even though the U.S. shale drillers will take a beating (a major goal for both), it's important to note that the oil will still be there if and when prices rebound to the point it's economical to go get it.
Some companies go bust, but new ones will buy the assets and emerge...which will leave Vlad and MBS disappointed.