Originally Posted by
CDu
Here's a little rundown of this year's FSU squad. Spoiler alert: this is not your older sibling's FSU squad. In the past, the 'Noles have had an unending supply of 7-footers rotating at center, with lots of size at the forward spots too. Well, that's not so much the case this year. Especially if Koumadje is still out with a lower-extremity injury. The 'Noles don't even look all that much like they did last year. Out are Isaac, Bacon, Rathan-Mayes, Smith, and Ojo, who were their 3 best players and 5 of their top 8.
The 'Noles are still solid defensively (as seemingly always under Leonard Hamilton), and not bad offensively. That being said, it's hard to say just how good this FSU team is, as they've not faced a ton of competition yet. They had what seemed like a fabulous 83-66 win over Florida, but the Gators have since made that win seem less impressive by losing to Loyola-Chicago and Clemson and struggling to beat James Madison. Aside from that, FSU has lost a squeaker to Ok State, won a close one at Rutgers, and blown out the rest of the mediocre/bad teams on their schedule. They are athletic and not lacking talent though, so it will be a good test of where our team is at this point. But they are fairly young, so losing this one at home would be tough to swallow.
Center: Coming into the season, the 'Noles had Christ (Chris) Koumadje (7'4", 235lb junor from Chad) and Ike Obiagu (7'0", 240lb frosh from Nigeria). Koumadje was another of Hamilton's African projects - a really tall kid with good athleticism but no strength (he's really skinny) and no skills. Koumadje was off to a decent start to the season before getting hurt. He's been out for an indefinite period with a lower-body injury, and I'd guess he'll be out for this one too. That leaves the 'Noles with just the one center, and a freshman at that. Obiagu is also really raw offensively, and despite now being the starter he doesn't play even half the game. But when he is on the floor, there is a good chance he'll be blocking a shot. He is averaging averaging 7.37 blocks per 40 minutes. Unfortunately, he also averages 6.0 fouls per 40 minutes. Obiagu is now backed up by Mfiondu Kabengele (6'9", 235lb redshirt frosh from Canada). Kabengele, the nephew of Dikembe Mutombo, is a long-armed guy with a much more diverse skillset than his uncle had. Kabengele is much more of an all-court player than a pure post guy. Kabengele also doesn't play major minutes, and as a result FSU often plays very small, with Phil Cofer (6'8", 220lb senior forward) shifting up to center.
Forwards: Cofer is the starter at power forward, though as mentioned he'll shift up to play center for a good chunk of his minutes. Cofer is a high-energy guy with lots of athleticism, and has really had a breakout start to this year. He can shoot (career 42.3% 3pt shooter) and isn't bad around the basket. But he's undersized, and will be especially so against our big front line. When Cofer has to play center, the 'Noles really get small, as either Terance Mann (6'6", 215lb junior) or Trent Forrest (6'5", 215lb soph) has to play PF.
Wings: This is easily the strength of the FSU team. They have a ton of athletic, physical players with a variety of skills. Mann is the best of the bunch right now. He is a high-energy, Swiss Army knife for the 'Noles, kind of a poor man's Justise Winslow. Not a great shooter, but he can defend anyone on the floor. He is a terrific rebounder and very pesky on the offensive glass. He's turned into a good scorer despite his lack of shooting touch. He's also a capable passer, and is second on the team in assists. Along with Mann, Braian Angola (formerly Angola-Rodas; 6'6", 195lb senior from Colombia) is a sharpshooter (42.4% on nearly 5 attempts per game) and also solid on the boards and as a passer. Angola is also a sneaky guy on the wings averaging 1.6 steals per game. Behind these two veterans are a couple of talented youngsters. Forrest is another Swiss Army knife guy, capable of playing anywhere from PG to PF. He leads the team in assists and steals, and is third on the team in rebounds. He has not been much of a scorer at the college level, but he has the skill set to power his way to the rim. So far though, he's been quite content to be a floor general on offense. Last but not least is MJ Walker (6'5", 205lb frosh). Walker is a fantastic athlete whose skill set has not yet caught up with his athleticism. He was a top-25 high school recruit, based primarily on his "projectability". Loads of physical talent, but not a lot of polish. He's shot standstill 3s well so far this year (46% on 4 attempts per game), but when he has to put the ball on the floor things get really shaky. He is shooting under 25% from 2pt range, which illustrates his struggles with ballhandling and decisionmaking, as his athleticism should allow him a much better percentage. That said, he does have obscene hair game.
Guards: The 'Noles rely on Mann, Forrest, and Angola to handle most of the PG duties from the wing, so FSU's guards are not as crucial to their attack. CJ Walker (6'1", 195lb soph; no relation to MJ) is a decent shooter with consistency issues. He has at times looked great and others looked like a liability. He doesn't make a ton of mistakes, but also doesn't always impact the game when he's in there. PJ Savoy (6'4", 200lb junior) is the 9th man. Savoy is an unabashed gunner. When he is on the floor, he's a threat to shoot (and make) a 3. Over 80% of Savoy's career attempts have been from 3pt range, and despite playing just 10 mpg he averages 4.5 3pt shots per game. We would do well to not leave him open when he's in there.
I think we match up pretty well with FSU, but their aggressiveness and athleticism could cause us problems if we aren't focused and disciplined. While we are bigger, their wings and forwards are quite physical and capable of defending bigger players. So our bigs can't just assume they will win on size alone. If we don't match their effort or lose focus, they can punish us. Still, I think our talent advantage and size advantage will result in a win.