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Thread: Bracketology

  1. #61
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    I suspect that 10-8 in conference will get it done. Mainly because I suspect that the RPI and Pomeroy will follow suit into the 40s if they get to 10-8. And an RPI/Pomeroy in the 40s with the wins they have, they'll be in the field.

    9-9 gets a little more dicey and probably then relies on to whom those 5 remaining losses come against.

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    The ultimate bottom line (bubble to the end) is probably right, but it's worth noting that Seth's Hokie teams that fell short of the NCAA did not have three wins as good as State's takedowns of Arizona (N), Duke, and @UNC. 2011, VT beat Duke at home but had no other top 25 wins and their best OOC win was over Penn State (an NCAA 10-seed). 2010, VT had a single top 25 win (Clemson, at home) and their best OOC win was over Georgia (no postseason). I'm not sure how bubble-worthy they were in 2009, but that team had two top 25 wins (but no top 20 wins) and their best OOC win was over Mt. St. Mary's. 2008 they didn't have a single top 50 win until beating #37 Miami in the ACC tournament.

    In other words, State this season has three wins that are favorably comparable to the best win Virginia Tech had in the entire 4-year stretch of VT sitting on the bubble and indisputably better than whatever you want to pick as VT's second-best win over that stretch.

    This year's State team seems, so far, pretty similar to the 2015 version of NC State where it made the field as an 8-seed. I think that shows the committee's appreciation for quality wins - Duke, @UNC, @Louisville - although that State team had a much less weak non-conference schedule.
    If all the committee cares about is good wins, then I agree with you and PackMan. But I'm not sure that's true. I don't have time to do the comprehensive research right now, but my recollection is that teams with an RPI in the 60s have a difficult time securing at-large bids. This year, supposedly, they're also consulting other ratings systems (e.g., Pomeroy) but, right now at least, State's in the 60s in those as well.

    I guess what I'm saying is if the future wins they get push them into the 40s in the rating systems, then a 10-8 record plus their good wins should get them in. If they're still hovering in the 60s, with that terrible NCSOS, then I don't think 10-8 plus the good wins does it, or if it does it would be as a "last four in."

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Not sure what it was by RPI, but the Pomeroy non-conference schedule was only 179. Better than 344, sure, but nothing really to write home about.
    I don't know State's RPI NCSOS was in 2015, but their overall RPI SOS was #6 (pre-Tourney; overall SOS was #23 in KenPom).

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I don't know State's RPI NCSOS was in 2015, but their overall RPI SOS was #6 (pre-Tourney; overall SOS was #23 in KenPom).
    This season's will continue to go in that direction as they play ACC teams (although it probably won't reach top 25).
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

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  5. #65
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    FWIW, at the moment Bracket Matrix has State in as the best of the 11-seeds, meaning they just barely miss the play-in game. Though a conference tournament upset could be problematic for State... if the season actually was ending this weekend
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    The answer to that is Duke. Few if any of those teams will win out. If Duke wins out and doesn't get a one seed, I will make you a dozen pies.
    For sure this is true. Even with the loss to U.Va. we remained a #1 seed (seemingly slightly ahead of Kansas and Michigan St.) in the main bracket projections. As you note it's more likely that everyone takes losses than that anyone wins out, but if we do I'd bet we would retain our edge on Kansas (whose home loss to Arizona St. and home-ish loss to Washington won't look that much better than our losses at BC and at NC St. by the end of the season) and Michigan St. (who we had the head-to-head edge on and who can't rack up many good wins in a down Big 10).

    Of our main competitors for the last one seed (it does seem unlikely that Nova, Purdue or Virginia will fall off enough not to get 3 of them) all have a bunch of potential losses on their schedules:

    Kansas: @ Baylor, West Va., Okla, @ Texas Tech, @ Okla St.
    Mich St.: @ Indiana, @ Iowa, Purdue, @ Minnesota, @ Northwestern, @ Wisconsin
    Xavier: @ Butler, @ Creighton, Seton Hall, Villanova, Providence
    Cinn: @ SMU, @ Houston, Wichita St. twice
    Arizona: @ Washington, UCLA, USC, @ Ariz St., @ Oregon
    Auburn: Texas A&M, @ Georgia, Kentucky, @ S. Carolina, Bama, @ Florida, @ Arkansas
    Texas Tech: @ TCU, @ Kansas St., Oklahoma, @ Baylor, @ Okla St., Kansas, @ West Va.
    Oklahoma: @ Texas, West Virginia, @ Texas Tech, Texas, @ Kansas.

    Of those, I think the realistic most serious contenders to come through unscathed (or maybe with just 1 more loss) are Kansas (which has its toughest remaining games at home, except for @ Texas Tech), Michigan St. (who has a lot of road games but against crappy/seriously under-achieving teams, so ought to win out if it can beat Purdue at home) and Arizona, given the weakness of the Pac 12.

    I think Arizona's overall schedule won't be good enough to justify a #1 seed even if it wins out. Given the relative weakness of the Big 10 and the historic strength of the Big 12, Kansas seems to me the strongest contender besides us for the last #1 seed.

    But, it really is absurd to be talking about winning out for anyone at this point - even us; to do that we would need to sweep Carolina, win at Clemson and at Va Tech (not trip up against Louisville or Va Tech at home or at Georgia Tech two days after playing at Carolina), and then beat Virginia in the ACC Tournament.

    I don't see anyone "winning out" - certainly not in this crazy year.

  7. #67
    Nothing to do with UVA’s defense, but would we rather be a 1 in the West or a 2 in the east?
       

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    (it does seem unlikely that Nova, Purdue or Virginia will fall off enough not to get 3 of them)
    I don't know. To me, Purdue seems to be exactly the sort of team that everyone says is a #1 "lock" in January but ends up a #3 or #4. After they lose two or three in a row in mid-February, those early losses to Tennessee and (especially) Western Kentucky will make everyone look at them in a different light.

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I don't know. To me, Purdue seems to be exactly the sort of team that everyone says is a #1 "lock" in January but ends up a #3 or #4. After they lose two or three in a row in mid-February, those early losses to Tennessee and (especially) Western Kentucky will make everyone look at them in a different light.
    True, but the Big 10 is so bad this year I don't see much jeopardy for Purdue -- perhaps this is because I'm significantly underrating Ohio St., which I still think is doing it with smoke and mirrors, but other than @ Michigan St., where would the losses come from for Purdue?

    This is all they've got left: Maryland, @ Rutgers, Ohio St., @ Michigan St., Penn St., @ Wisc, @ Illinois, Minn.

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I don't know. To me, Purdue seems to be exactly the sort of team that everyone says is a #1 "lock" in January but ends up a #3 or #4. After they lose two or three in a row in mid-February, those early losses to Tennessee and (especially) Western Kentucky will make everyone look at them in a different light.
    I don't think Tennessee's loss is going to look bad period. They are #10 in Pomeroy and #14 in RPI. And it was at a neutral site. That's a perfectly fine loss.

    To a lesser degree, the same is true of Western Kentucky. They are #48 in Pomeroy and #40 in RPI. And it was at a neutral site. Not a great loss, but not abysmal either. Arguably no worse than our losses to BC or NC State based on the math. And it will be a better loss than all but two teams remaining on their schedule.

    They do also have neutral-site wins over Arizona and Butler, with a home win over Louisville that is probably going to look better than it really was by season's end.

    But most importantly, their remaining schedule is pretty darn soft. They host Ohio State and go to Michigan State, and their only other RPI top-100 opponent is hosting Maryland.

    Could they lose? Sure. And if they lose a couple, it certainly opens the door for us to move ahead of them. But I'd say they are pretty comfortably in the driver's seat for a 1 seed at the moment.

    I'd say we have a reasonable case for a 1 seed as well, although we have more potential speed bumps left on our schedule than they do.

  11. #71
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    Jul 2010
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    NC Raised, DC Resident
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I don't think Tennessee's loss is going to look bad period. They are #10 in Pomeroy and #14 in RPI. And it was at a neutral site. That's a perfectly fine loss.

    To a lesser degree, the same is true of Western Kentucky. They are #48 in Pomeroy and #40 in RPI. And it was at a neutral site. Not a great loss, but not abysmal either. Arguably no worse than our losses to BC or NC State based on the math. And it will be a better loss than all but two teams remaining on their schedule.

    They do also have neutral-site wins over Arizona and Butler, with a home win over Louisville that is probably going to look better than it really was by season's end.

    But most importantly, their remaining schedule is pretty darn soft. They host Ohio State and go to Michigan State, and their only other RPI top-100 opponent is hosting Maryland.

    Could they lose? Sure. And if they lose a couple, it certainly opens the door for us to move ahead of them. But I'd say they are pretty comfortably in the driver's seat for a 1 seed at the moment.

    I'd say we have a reasonable case for a 1 seed as well, although we have more potential speed bumps left on our schedule than they do.

    Well, Purdue did almost lose @IU the other night, who is 91 (KenPom) and 113 (RPI). Taking a conference loss to a team you're expected to beat--sometimes, easily so--isn't really that far-fetched in a long season.

  12. #72
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    Feb 2007
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    Washington, D.C.

    Purdue

    Quote Originally Posted by English View Post
    Well, Purdue did almost lose @IU the other night, who is 91 (KenPom) and 113 (RPI). Taking a conference loss to a team you're expected to beat--sometimes, easily so--isn't really that far-fetched in a long season.
    Purdue almost lost to Northwestern, too, at Purdue. Only the refs swallowing their whistles in the closing minutes kept the Boilermakers from losing.

    Now, how about Virginia’s defense? Was it nearly this effective when Tony ‘s dad used it? Why is it so effective today?

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    I hate to break it to you, but that's what happens as you advance in the tournament, you face better and better competition.
    Reminds me of a stat folks used to throw around in the early/mid-1990s -- during the nine-season stretch from 1985-86 to 1993-94, Duke either won the national title or was knocked out by the eventual national champion or runner-up in eight of those nine seasons.

    Of course, Duke was in the Final Four in seven of those nine seasons, so by definition it would either win the whole thing, or lose to either the eventual national champion or runner-up.

    The one season Duke was knocked out by the eventual national champion or runner-up before the Final Four was 1986-87, when Duke lost to eventual national champion Indiana in the Sweet 16.

    Duke had another similar streak from 1997-98 to 2005-06 -- nine seasons in which it either won the national championship, or lost to a team that made it at least as far as the Final Four:

    1997-98 -- lost in regional final to eventual champ Kentucky
    1998-99 -- lost in championship game to UConn
    1999-2000 -- lost in Sweet 16 to eventual runner-up Florida
    2000-01 -- won national championship
    2001-02 -- lost in Sweet 16 to eventual runner-up Indiana
    2002-03 -- lost in Sweet 16 to eventual runner-up Kansas
    2003-04 -- lost in national semifinal to eventual champ UConn
    2004-05 -- lost in Sweet 16 to eventual semifinalist Michigan State
    2005-06 -- lost in Sweet 16 to eventual semifinalist LSU
    "I swear Roy must redeem extra timeouts at McDonald's the day after the game for free hamburgers." --Posted on InsideCarolina, 2/18/2015

  14. #74
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by English View Post
    Well, Purdue did almost lose @IU the other night, who is 91 (KenPom) and 113 (RPI). Taking a conference loss to a team you're expected to beat--sometimes, easily so--isn't really that far-fetched in a long season.
    Oh it's definitely possible that they could lose another game or two down the stretch that they are supposed to win. It probably should be expect. Of course, we're probably in the same boat.

  15. #75
    Re: Purdue losing to Western KY: Shouts to Darius Thompson! I once compared him to Justin Anderson on this here message board. That was...overzealous.
       

  16. #76
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Channing View Post
    Nothing to do with UVA’s defense, but would we rather be a 1 in the West or a 2 in the east?
    What we should be rooting for is for Michigan St to beat Purdue twice, once @MSU and once in the Big 10 tourney. That should send Purdue down to the 2-seed line and Michigan St back up to the 1-seed line but out West since Duke would have the head-to-head win on MSU. (Now, obviously, Duke has to take care of business ourselves, which probably includes winning the ACC tourney, in order to be a 1 seed.)

    East (Boston) South (Atlanta) Midwest (Omaha) West (L.A.)
    1. Villanova 1. Virginia 1. Duke 1. MSU
    2. Purdue
    x. Arizona
    4. Kentucky

    Others have mentioned this before, but preseason rankings should be respected when filling out your brackets. Nate Silver wrote an article about that here. Overachievers like Purdue (preseason #20) tend to regress to the mean in the NCAA tournament. Although it's more a mixed bag, underachievers like Arizona or Kentucky also tend to regress to the mean.

    If you had told me before the season started that our two preseason co-favorites, MSU and Arizona, would be stuck in the same bracket out West, all the way across the overall bracket from Duke; that Duke would be a #1 seed with Purdue our #2 seed; that the #1 seed we'd be paired with would be unranked UVA (even though I knew they were underrated); I would have taken that in a heartbeat. Note: we also avoid the Kentucky landmine here; the Wildcats (preseason #5) are bound to be a much better team at the end of the season than they were at the beginning.

    So, that's what I'm rooting for. Nothing too specific or anything ;-) (Gawd, I love talking bracketology. It's so stupid in many ways, but I can't help it).

  17. #77
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    What we should be rooting for is for Michigan St to beat Purdue twice, once @MSU and once in the Big 10 tourney. That should send Purdue down to the 2-seed line and Michigan St back up to the 1-seed line but out West since Duke would have the head-to-head win on MSU. (Now, obviously, Duke has to take care of business ourselves, which probably includes winning the ACC tourney, in order to be a 1 seed.)

    East (Boston) South (Atlanta) Midwest (Omaha) West (L.A.)
    1. Villanova 1. Virginia 1. Duke 1. MSU
    2. Purdue
    x. Arizona
    4. Kentucky

    Others have mentioned this before, but preseason rankings should be respected when filling out your brackets. Nate Silver wrote an article about that here. Overachievers like Purdue (preseason #20) tend to regress to the mean in the NCAA tournament. Although it's more a mixed bag, underachievers like Arizona or Kentucky also tend to regress to the mean.

    If you had told me before the season started that our two preseason co-favorites, MSU and Arizona, would be stuck in the same bracket out West, all the way across the overall bracket from Duke; that Duke would be a #1 seed with Purdue our #2 seed; that the #1 seed we'd be paired with would be unranked UVA (even though I knew they were underrated); I would have taken that in a heartbeat. Note: we also avoid the Kentucky landmine here; the Wildcats (preseason #5) are bound to be a much better team at the end of the season than they were at the beginning.

    So, that's what I'm rooting for. Nothing too specific or anything ;-) (Gawd, I love talking bracketology. It's so stupid in many ways, but I can't help it).
    What we should be also hoping for is that UVa loses a conference game, and we win out and win the ACC tournament. If that happens, we may very well jump them to be the #1 seed in the South. Both teams would have 3 losses, we would have the long win streak and an ACC title, and certainly the better overall resume due to a much stronger OOC resume. Of course, that's if we win out.

    But there are multiple ways to get a 1 seed not out West.

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by Channing View Post
    Nothing to do with UVA’s defense, but would we rather be a 1 in the West or a 2 in the east?
    It all depends on potential regional matchups. Villanova is the current favorite to be the 1 seed in the EAST. If that turns out to be the case, I'd much rather be the 1 seed in the WESTthan a 2 seed in the EAST.
       

  19. #79
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    Mar 2008
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    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by Channing View Post
    Nothing to do with UVA’s defense, but would we rather be a 1 in the West or a 2 in the east?
    Didn't we ask the same question around this time last year? Duke ended up a 2 seed in the East, losing in Greenville to 7-seed South Carolina. Even if Duke had somehow ascended to the top seed line -- which, based on the Selection Committee chairman's own words, would have been almost impossible -- they would probably lose in Greenville to 8-seed South Carolina.

  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    True, but the Big 10 is so bad this year I don't see much jeopardy for Purdue -- perhaps this is because I'm significantly underrating Ohio St., which I still think is doing it with smoke and mirrors, but other than @ Michigan St., where would the losses come from for Purdue?

    This is all they've got left: Maryland, @ Rutgers, Ohio St., @ Michigan St., Penn St., @ Wisc, @ Illinois, Minn.
    Where will the losses come from? I don't know. But I do know that in major conference play, losses often come from unexpected places. I went back and examined Duke's conference losses, going back to 2009-10. In that time (including this season), Duke has lost 38 conference games, and over 60% of those losses (23) came at the hands of unranked teams.

    My guess is @Wisconsin (always a tough place to play) and @Illinois won't be cakewalks -- they're both approximately as good as BC, for example. According to KenPom, Penn State is a top 60 team (about the same as NC State), Maryland is top 45, Ohio State is top 15, and Michigan State is top 5. For a team like Purdue, that has little experience being the big favorite, I could easily see three losses in that aggregate, maybe four. Though, sure, it could also be only one or two.

    It's funny that Duke fans seem to look at our schedule and see losses lurking around every corner, but when they look at other good teams' schedules all they see are wins. Except it almost never works that way.

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