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Thread: Bracketology

  1. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    Certainly one couldn't suggest anything odd about Mich St. being the #2 to our #1 under the circumstances. And, Oklahoma and Gonzaga do not strike me as objectively scary teams to have in your bracket.
    *insert my obligatory caveat about HATING "bracketology," "Joey Brackets," or anything else on the mothership which exists only for clicks*

    Oklahoma is precisely the sort of team that terrifies me in a bracket, given Duke's propensity to be shredded by talented guards in March, given our defensive lapses this season, and given the insanity that is Trae Young.
       

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    ESPN analytics tweeted the following this morning (along with a tweet giving Duke a 60% chance of winning the game with UVA, which sounds about right to me... maybe a little low):

    Chance to earn a No. 1 seed in NCAA tournament, based on result of Saturday's game:
    Virginia w/ win: 96%
    Virginia w/ loss: 87%
    Duke w/ win: 65%

    Duke w/ loss: 38%

    -Jason "the above percentages demonstrate that it is still really, really early to be talking about this stuff" Evans
    I'm quite skeptical that UVA has a significantly better chance at a 1 seed even if Duke wins on Saturday. If UVA wins, yes. But, c'mon, 87% to 65% even if Duke wins?

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I'm quite skeptical that UVA has a significantly better chance at a 1 seed even if Duke wins on Saturday. If UVA wins, yes. But, c'mon, 87% to 65% even if Duke wins?
    That probably has something to do with their schedule. UVA's last ranked team on the schedule is this Saturday. After that, no opponent at home or on the road is currently in the Top 25. Of the current Top 25 teams, their schedule only features 5 matchups against ranked teams.

    Duke still has to play at UNC, at Clemson, and at home against UNC after Saturday.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    That probably has something to do with their schedule. UVA's last ranked team on the schedule is this Saturday. After that, no opponent at home or on the road is currently in the Top 25. Of the current Top 25 teams, their schedule only features 5 matchups against ranked teams.

    Duke still has to play at UNC, at Clemson, and at home against UNC after Saturday.
    Almost certainly due to a combination of their easier schedule (it's significantly easier) and their better current position in the hierarchy (higher-ranked, better record, and higher-rated by everyone except RPI).

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    That probably has something to do with their schedule. UVA's last ranked team on the schedule is this Saturday. After that, no opponent at home or on the road is currently in the Top 25. Of the current Top 25 teams, their schedule only features 5 matchups against ranked teams.

    Duke still has to play at UNC, at Clemson, and at home against UNC after Saturday.
    True, but there's a good chance Clemson won't be ranked when we face them in three weeks.

    Which is another data point showing that long-term seed prognosticating is a bit of a fool's errand.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Oklahoma is precisely the sort of team that terrifies me in a bracket, given Duke's propensity to be shredded by talented guards in March, given our defensive lapses this season, and given the insanity that is Trae Young.
    Agreed. I wasn’t going to point this out until next month, but there is a close to 100 percent chance that either Oklahoma (Trae Young) or Alabama (Collin Sexton) are placed in the same region as Duke. Maybe both, if Alabama stays in the 8-9 range and Oklahoma in the 4-5 range. At that point even the most die hard DBR statisticians may wish for a 2 seed instead of a 1.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    If you really look at it, why is that bracket insane?

    #1 seed expected to be #1 to #4: Duke is #4 in KenPom; #1 in RPI; #4 in AP rankings
    #2 seed expected to be #5 to #8: Michigan State is #5 in KenPom; #26 in RPI; #6 in AP (the #26 implies they may not deserve a #2, but supposedly reliance on RPI will be lessened this year...)
    #3 seed expected to be #9 to #12: Oklahoma is #19 in KenPom; #8 in RPI; #12 in AP (here, KenPom implies they may not deserve a #3 and the average would suggest a #4, but it's pretty close)
    #4 seed expected to be #13 to #16: Arizona is #22 in KenPom; #17 in RPI; #11 in AP (based on these, probably ought to be a #5)
    #5 seed expected to be #17 to #20: Kentucky is #33 in KenPom; #18 in RPI; #29 in AP (based on these, probably ought to be a #7)
    #6 seed expected to be #21 to #24: Gonzaga is #7 in KenPom; #57 in RPI; #15 in AP (so much variance it's hard to call this one, average would make them a #7)
    #9 seed expected to be #33 to #36: Texas is #40 in KenPom; #42 in RPI; worse than #38 in AP (based on these looks more like a #10 or #11)

    So, other than Duke, you could make a decent argument that every single team in this bracket is seeded too high. In other words, this bracket is probably too easy, not too hard.
    You lose me with the "expected to be" and "ought to be" statements.

    My post was more intended to juxtapose the current bracket with the reputation of these teams going into the season. Still, I wouldn't want anything to do with this bracket, I don't care what Pomeroy's data says "should" or "ought" to be the case on January 25th.

  8. #48
    Using Joe Lunardi's (who is ok but not perfect) seed list from Saturday night, here are the top 4 seeds as of this moment:

    1 Seeds: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke
    2 Seeds: Kansas, Michigan State, Xavier, West Virginia
    3 Seeds: Oklahoma, UNC, Cincinnati, Arizona
    4 Seeds: Ohio State, Clemson, Auburn, Texas Tech

    Let's focus on the 1-seeds first.

    Villanova has 1 remaining game against a Top 25 team, a road game at Xavier on February 17th. They host Butler the week before, which defeated Villanova in Indianapolis earlier this season. But it's a pretty easy road to the 1 Seed in the East for 'Nova.

    Virginia doesn't face a team that is currently ranked in the Top 25 the rest of the season, up until the ACC Tournament. They do have an interesting two games at the end of the year, playing at Louisville and then hosting Notre Dame, who could be fully healthy, to close out the end of the season. Even with a loss or two, it's hard to see them losing the 1 Seed in the South. It would probably take 2 losses and Duke running the table to do it.

    The B1G scheduling is a joke. The top 3 teams in the conference only play each other once. How is that possible? Purdue hosts Ohio State on February 7th and then travels to Michigan State on the 10th.Other than that, it's a cakewalk of a schedule. It's possible Purdue drops one or two games. Winning one of the two games against tOSU and MSU and then winning the B1G Tournament locks up the 1 Seed in the Midwest.

    Duke has a manageable schedule the rest of the season. There are the 2 games against UNC, 2 against Virginia Tech, road games against Georgia Tech (2/11), home games against Louisville and Syracuse, and the out-of-conference game against St. John's this Saturday at Madison Square Garden (my first trip to MSG!). That's a manageable schedule given the injury to Clemson's Donte Grantham and UNC's struggles this year. It's not inconceivable that Duke runs the table to end the year on a 10-game winning streak. Getting to the ACC Tournament Finals at that point would probably seal a 1 Seed, most likely in the West (ugh).

    Fortunately for Duke, the contenders for 1 Seeds do not face an easy road.

    Kansas plays at Kansas State (who lost to KU by 1 in Lawrence earlier this year) tonight and has tough stretch in mid-February hosting West Virginia and Oklahoma before traveling to Texas Tech.

    Michigan State does have a favorable schedule. The only Top 25 team they face is Purdue at home on February 10th. The rest of their games look very, very winnable in a down year in the B1G. It's possible they will have to face Ohio State and then Purdue in the conference tournament.

    Xavier would have to defeat Villanova on February 17th to have a chance at a 1 Seed. They don't have any other ranked opponents but do have road games at Butler on February 6th and at Creighton on February 10th.

    West Virginia, who lost at home to Kentucky on Saturday night, is sliding and faces a couple of tough tests at Oklahoma on February 5th and at Kansas on the 17th. Having lost 3 of their last 4, it's hard to see them climbing over the group above.

    I think Duke is in a good spot for the NCAA Tournament. They have a few challenges ahead but should be favored in every game for the rest of the regular season. If Purdue can close out the B1G, in particular by defeating Michigan State while Kansas picks up a loss or two, Duke should be in a good spot for a 1 Seed out West.

  9. #49
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    Agree with your analysis DavidBenAkiva, but I'm not sure I would be thrilled with being the 1 seed out west. I might actually prefer a 2 seed in the East or Midwest to a 1 seed out West. But, c'est la vie. I'll be cheering hard against Nova and Purdue the rest of the way. We'd probably need to run the table the rest of the way to have a strong chance to knock either off the 1 line in their respective regions. But if we do win out, I think there is a better than awful chance we bump one of them. And I'd MUCH prefer to be in any region other than the West.

  10. #50
    It was somebody on these boards a few years back who tipped me off to Bracket Matrix http://www.bracketmatrix.com/. I've found it really useful as it not only aggregates all the projections but weighs the projections based on past performance (Lundardi ranks 40th lol). Anyway great site.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Using Joe Lunardi's (who is ok but not perfect) seed list from Saturday night, here are the top 4 seeds as of this moment:

    1 Seeds: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke
    2 Seeds: Kansas, Michigan State, Xavier, West Virginia
    3 Seeds: Oklahoma, UNC, Cincinnati, Arizona
    4 Seeds: Ohio State, Clemson, Auburn, Texas Tech

    Let's focus on the 1-seeds first.

    Villanova has 1 remaining game against a Top 25 team, a road game at Xavier on February 17th. They host Butler the week before, which defeated Villanova in Indianapolis earlier this season. But it's a pretty easy road to the 1 Seed in the East for 'Nova.

    Virginia doesn't face a team that is currently ranked in the Top 25 the rest of the season, up until the ACC Tournament. They do have an interesting two games at the end of the year, playing at Louisville and then hosting Notre Dame, who could be fully healthy, to close out the end of the season. Even with a loss or two, it's hard to see them losing the 1 Seed in the South. It would probably take 2 losses and Duke running the table to do it.

    The B1G scheduling is a joke. The top 3 teams in the conference only play each other once. How is that possible? Purdue hosts Ohio State on February 7th and then travels to Michigan State on the 10th.Other than that, it's a cakewalk of a schedule. It's possible Purdue drops one or two games. Winning one of the two games against tOSU and MSU and then winning the B1G Tournament locks up the 1 Seed in the Midwest.

    Duke has a manageable schedule the rest of the season. There are the 2 games against UNC, 2 against Virginia Tech, road games against Georgia Tech (2/11), home games against Louisville and Syracuse, and the out-of-conference game against St. John's this Saturday at Madison Square Garden (my first trip to MSG!). That's a manageable schedule given the injury to Clemson's Donte Grantham and UNC's struggles this year. It's not inconceivable that Duke runs the table to end the year on a 10-game winning streak. Getting to the ACC Tournament Finals at that point would probably seal a 1 Seed, most likely in the West (ugh).

    Fortunately for Duke, the contenders for 1 Seeds do not face an easy road.

    Kansas plays at Kansas State (who lost to KU by 1 in Lawrence earlier this year) tonight and has tough stretch in mid-February hosting West Virginia and Oklahoma before traveling to Texas Tech.

    Michigan State does have a favorable schedule. The only Top 25 team they face is Purdue at home on February 10th. The rest of their games look very, very winnable in a down year in the B1G. It's possible they will have to face Ohio State and then Purdue in the conference tournament.

    Xavier would have to defeat Villanova on February 17th to have a chance at a 1 Seed. They don't have any other ranked opponents but do have road games at Butler on February 6th and at Creighton on February 10th.

    West Virginia, who lost at home to Kentucky on Saturday night, is sliding and faces a couple of tough tests at Oklahoma on February 5th and at Kansas on the 17th. Having lost 3 of their last 4, it's hard to see them climbing over the group above.

    I think Duke is in a good spot for the NCAA Tournament. They have a few challenges ahead but should be favored in every game for the rest of the regular season. If Purdue can close out the B1G, in particular by defeating Michigan State while Kansas picks up a loss or two, Duke should be in a good spot for a 1 Seed out West.
    Really nice analysis. 'Nova and UVa are pretty much surefire 1-seeds. Nova was always going to get a 1-seed. They played really well in non-conference (hey - it's not their fault Zona was horrible in that tournament) and are in an easy conference. Great non-conference + easy conference is a surefire way to get a 1-seed. Countless examples of this (Wichita St, St. Joes back in the day, Gonzaga every other year, etc). And given how everyone not named UVa and Purdue is beating up on each other, they are in a position where you cannot argue their 1-seed in either the East or the South.

    UVa did what Duke should have done: win games they should have won. If Duke and UVa were undefeated in ACC play going into Saturday's game, Duke would have the upper hand on the 1-seed South (or East, even). If Duke losses that game, then I think it's a toss up between UVa and Duke for that 1-seed in the South/East. Hell, maybe Duke and UVa get 2 1-seeds and Nova gets shipped West.

    Bottomline - Duke would still be in a good position if they beat NCSU and BC. Those losses are tough and are the main reason Duke will not be a 1-seed in the East or the South, ie the most desirable locations. Even with 1 loss in the reg season and a loss in the ACC Tournament, UVa should still be a in a position to get the 1-seed in the South/East (and rightly so).
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  12. #52
    I was looking at State's chances of making the tournament. I think any 5 wins (10-8 ACC) makes State a lock. 4 more wins (9-9 in the ACC), regardless of the opponent and we are probably in as well.

    Remaining opponents (in order of RPI)
    #10 UNC
    #20 Louisville
    #29 @ Syracuse
    #30 FSU
    #67 @VT
    #69 BC
    #74 ND
    #115 @Wake
    #135 @GT

    As much as road losses to Wake and GT would be bad...four more wins would have to come from teams in the top 75 and at least one in the top 30. Five wins, even if we lost to the worst four teams, means we beat the best 5. Lose to the best four, means we beat all middling teams. State doesn't need any marquee wins, they just need wins.

    Given how State has played against Duke, Carolina, Arizona and Clemson, every game on the schedule is winnable. Given how State has played against UNI, UNC-G and Pitt, every game on the schedule is loseable.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I was looking at State's chances of making the tournament. I think any 5 wins (10-8 ACC) makes State a lock. 4 more wins (9-9 in the ACC), regardless of the opponent and we are probably in as well.

    Remaining opponents (in order of RPI)
    #10 UNC
    #20 Louisville
    #29 @ Syracuse
    #30 FSU
    #67 @VT
    #69 BC
    #74 ND
    #115 @Wake
    #135 @GT

    As much as road losses to Wake and GT would be bad...four more wins would have to come from teams in the top 75 and at least one in the top 30. Five wins, even if we lost to the worst four teams, means we beat the best 5. Lose to the best four, means we beat all middling teams. State doesn't need any marquee wins, they just need wins.

    Given how State has played against Duke, Carolina, Arizona and Clemson, every game on the schedule is winnable. Given how State has played against UNI, UNC-G and Pitt, every game on the schedule is loseable.
    Without wandering down the mid-season rabbit hole of State's NCAAT chances on a Duke hoops site, there's quite a maelstrom on the Twitter machine today about this very topic (I follow a lot of national, ACC, and NC beat writers). It seems that NCSU's OOC SOS is just so bad (as are a couple of their losses) that there's actually a debate about their resume right now. Of course, the emphasis is on "right now," as in, if the Selection Cmte were to create the field and seeding today, would NCSU be in or out. This could all be a moot point if they don't fumble and limp down the stretch. Pundit Patrick Stevens points out, again on Twitter, that there are plenty of examples of teams in the ACC having 0.500+ conference records and not making the field, especially when their OOC strength of schedule is lousy.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I was looking at State's chances of making the tournament. I think any 5 wins (10-8 ACC) makes State a lock. 4 more wins (9-9 in the ACC), regardless of the opponent and we are probably in as well.

    Remaining opponents (in order of RPI)
    #10 UNC
    #20 Louisville
    #29 @ Syracuse
    #30 FSU
    #67 @VT
    #69 BC
    #74 ND
    #115 @Wake
    #135 @GT

    As much as road losses to Wake and GT would be bad...four more wins would have to come from teams in the top 75 and at least one in the top 30. Five wins, even if we lost to the worst four teams, means we beat the best 5. Lose to the best four, means we beat all middling teams. State doesn't need any marquee wins, they just need wins.

    Given how State has played against Duke, Carolina, Arizona and Clemson, every game on the schedule is winnable. Given how State has played against UNI, UNC-G and Pitt, every game on the schedule is loseable.
    With 2 wins against the top 10 and another against a team usually in the top 15 (Kerlina), State would need an epic collapse to not get in. Keats has done some great things there in his first year.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I was looking at State's chances of making the tournament. I think any 5 wins (10-8 ACC) makes State a lock. 4 more wins (9-9 in the ACC), regardless of the opponent and we are probably in as well.

    Remaining opponents (in order of RPI)
    #10 UNC
    #20 Louisville
    #29 @ Syracuse
    #30 FSU
    #67 @VT
    #69 BC
    #74 ND
    #115 @Wake
    #135 @GT

    As much as road losses to Wake and GT would be bad...four more wins would have to come from teams in the top 75 and at least one in the top 30. Five wins, even if we lost to the worst four teams, means we beat the best 5. Lose to the best four, means we beat all middling teams. State doesn't need any marquee wins, they just need wins.

    Given how State has played against Duke, Carolina, Arizona and Clemson, every game on the schedule is winnable. Given how State has played against UNI, UNC-G and Pitt, every game on the schedule is loseable.
    Currently, State is #63 RPI and #65 Pomeroy. Pomeroy ranks State's non-conference schedule #344 (out of 351 teams). Obviously wins will help the ratings numbers (though not the poor schedule strength). I think it's hard to say what number of wins gets State in, but I'm not sure it's 9 or 10. At 10-8, with several good wins, several bad losses, and a really bad NCSOS, I think you're in a position like Virginia Tech was several times under Seth Greenberg, bubble to the end.

    FWIW, I'll be rooting for you.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    With 2 wins against the top 10 and another against a team usually in the top 15 (Kerlina), State would need an epic collapse to not get in. Keats has done some great things there in his first year.
    Totally agree. This guy is going to make NC State a solid program going forward. They got a good one.

  17. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Currently, State is #63 RPI and #65 Pomeroy. Pomeroy ranks State's non-conference schedule #344 (out of 351 teams). Obviously wins will help the ratings numbers (though not the poor schedule strength). I think it's hard to say what number of wins gets State in, but I'm not sure it's 9 or 10. At 10-8, with several good wins, several bad losses, and a really bad NCSOS, I think you're in a position like Virginia Tech was several times under Seth Greenberg, bubble to the end.

    FWIW, I'll be rooting for you.
    I think the biggest difference is that in the next 9 games, State can't but help add at least strong win or three assuming it gets to 9-9. I

    VT in 2009-10 was 4-4 vs the top 50,
    Wins:
    #48 Penn State
    #42 FSU
    #4 Duke
    #42 FSU
    Losses:
    #22 Kansas State
    #29 UNLV
    #14 Purdue
    #7 UNC

    That is only one "top tier" win on their resume.

    Compare that to State's current 4-4 vs the top 50.
    Wins:
    #14 Arizona
    #4 Duke
    #6 Clemson
    #10 UNC
    Losses:
    #13 Tennesse
    #6 Clemson
    #1 UVa
    #16 Miami

    There is a distinct difference between the two resumes, especially if you add another decent win or two. I definitely understand that SOS argument and it has me worried (just a little), but winning will cure all SoS issues.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Currently, State is #63 RPI and #65 Pomeroy. Pomeroy ranks State's non-conference schedule #344 (out of 351 teams). Obviously wins will help the ratings numbers (though not the poor schedule strength). I think it's hard to say what number of wins gets State in, but I'm not sure it's 9 or 10. At 10-8, with several good wins, several bad losses, and a really bad NCSOS, I think you're in a position like Virginia Tech was several times under Seth Greenberg, bubble to the end.

    FWIW, I'll be rooting for you.
    The ultimate bottom line (bubble to the end) is probably right, but it's worth noting that Seth's Hokie teams that fell short of the NCAA did not have three wins as good as State's takedowns of Arizona (N), Duke, and @UNC. 2011, VT beat Duke at home but had no other top 25 wins and their best OOC win was over Penn State (an NCAA 10-seed). 2010, VT had a single top 25 win (Clemson, at home) and their best OOC win was over Georgia (no postseason). I'm not sure how bubble-worthy they were in 2009, but that team had two top 25 wins (but no top 20 wins) and their best OOC win was over Mt. St. Mary's. 2008 they didn't have a single top 50 win until beating #37 Miami in the ACC tournament.

    In other words, State this season has three wins that are favorably comparable to the best win Virginia Tech had in the entire 4-year stretch of VT sitting on the bubble and indisputably better than whatever you want to pick as VT's second-best win over that stretch.

    This year's State team seems, so far, pretty similar to the 2015 version of NC State where it made the field as an 8-seed. I think that shows the committee's appreciation for quality wins - Duke, @UNC, @Louisville - although that State team had a much less weak non-conference schedule.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

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  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    This year's State team seems, so far, pretty similar to the 2015 version of NC State where it made the field as an 8-seed. I think that shows the committee's appreciation for quality wins - Duke, @UNC, @Louisville - although that State team had a much less weak non-conference schedule.
    Gottfried was fantastic at scheduling the top 100-200 teams OOC that really boost your RPI while still being cupcakes. This is why he always fell on the other side of the bubble. His SoS and non-conf SOS would always be up there.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Gottfried was fantastic at scheduling the top 100-200 teams OOC that really boost your RPI while still being cupcakes. This is why he always fell on the other side of the bubble. His SoS and non-conf SOS would always be up there.
    Not sure what it was by RPI, but the Pomeroy non-conference schedule was only 179. Better than 344, sure, but nothing really to write home about.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

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