Bracketology

[kAzE]

I think I'd much rather be in Xavier's bracket than have to potentially play against Kansas in Omaha. Gonna guess not a ton of Duke fans in and around Nebraska . . .

Xavier in LA is much more favorable.

[richardjackson199]

I don't think we'd have passed Xavier unless we won the ACC. Doesn't matter now though and we'll never know what would have happened.

We would have passed Xavier. The only tourney teams Xavier beat were Cincy, Butler (twice), Creighton (twice), Seton Hall (twice), and Providence (only 1 of 3). X lost both games to Nova. Besides Cincy, their other wins were against teams roughly equal to NC State or Va Tech. Duke by contrast beat UNCheat, MSU, Clemson, Miami, Florida, and Texas. The first 5 of those wins are better than Xavier's second best win. And we were talking about adding in another win over UNCheat for Duke to that (which sadly did not happen). Plus, Duke's wins against FSU, Va Tech, Notre Dame (twice), Syracuse, and Louisville basically equal Xavier's wins against the Big East's tourney bound teams. Bottom line - X hasn't really won anything compared to Duke.

I can't make this argument as things stand now. Xavier clearly deserves 1 seed over Duke with Duke's losses and our loss on Friday. But I think Duke would definitely have beaten them out for that last 1 seed with a win Friday.

But right, we'll never know.

[OldPhiKap]

There is a major flaw in your analogy....can you spot it?

Implied odds?

[richardjackson199]

Implied odds?

If the stacks are deep enough

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Implied odds?

not what I was thinking of....he compared Aces with deuces in a card game to 1's and 2's in NCAA seeding. The flaw is the relative values. Aces are the best card you can draw, but a 2 is hardly the second best card you can draw. In seeding, a 1 is the best, and a 2 is clearly the next best.

In cards, a King would represent a 2 seed - not a deuce. In hoops, a 16 seed would represent the deuce equivalent.

[richardjackson199]

Auburn won't be a 3

1 Seeds: UVA, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier

2 Seeds: UNCheat, Duke, Cincy, Purdue

3 Seeds: Arizona, Michigan, Michigan State, Tennessee

But we'll see

4 Seeds: Auburn, West Virginia, Texas Tech, and I think Kentucky.

Wichita State could flip flop with Kentucky, but I think committee gives 4 to Kentucky.

Big drop-off from 3 seeds to 4 seeds this year IMO

[richardjackson199]

And if Kentucky is a 5 seed, then it's possible Nashville (where Duke will be playing) will also be filled with UK fans.

As SC filled with cheat fans showed us, we really don't want that next weekend. It matters.

UK won't be in Nashville if they are a 4. Duke, Clemson, Mich, Mich State, Auburn and Tenn would all have higher seeds to get the Nashville location.

[freshmanjs]

not what I was thinking of...he compared Aces with deuces in a card game to 1's and 2's in NCAA seeding. The flaw is the relative values. Aces are the best card you can draw, but a 2 is hardly the second best card you can draw. In seeding, a 1 is the best, and a 2 is clearly the next best.

In cards, a King would represent a 2 seed - not a deuce. In hoops, a 16 seed would represent the deuce equivalent.

That's actually not right. A pair of 2s is a much better "hand" than a 16 seed. Also, 2 seeds make the final 4 half as often (approximately) as 1 seeds. So, it isn't right to say it's like the Kings. In any case, the point of the analogy is not to get the precise relative difference between the hands to match the seeding. The point is that you can't be indifferent between a clearly superior and clearly inferior starting point because it is possible to win from the inferior point. The analogy works just as well if you use Kings instead of 2s.

[G man]

I think I'd much rather be in Xavier's bracket than have to potentially play against Kansas in Omaha. Gonna guess not a ton of Duke fans in and around Nebraska . . .

Xavier in LA is much more favorable.

Nobody is a fan of Nebraska basketball in Nebraska all Jayhawk fans

[richardjackson199]

Hurley family Thanksgiving dinner could be awkward this year

[HereBeforeCoachK]

That's actually not right. A pair of 2s is a much better "hand" than a 16 seed.

Once gain, flawed analogy. I'm out on this.

[luvdahops]

Nobody is a fan of Nebraska basketball in Nebraska all Jayhawk fans

To be fair, Creighton has a pretty solid fanbase

[duke2x]

And if Kentucky is a 5 seed, then it's possible Nashville (where Duke will be playing) will also be filled with UK fans.

As SC filled with cheat fans showed us, we really don't want that next weekend. It matters.

UK won't be in Nashville if they are a 4. Duke, Clemson, Mich, Mich State, Auburn and Tenn would all have higher seeds to get the Nashville location.

We finally agree. UK goes out west. I grew up in Cincinnati, the center of the pod universe this year.

The 3 ACC spots are in Charlotte and Pittsburgh. UVA has picked Charlotte by rule.
The closest pod to Cincy is Nashville. The MW stereotype is appropriate over KY or Northeast, but it doesn't work in this weird year.
The closest pod to Purdue, MI, and MSU is Detroit.

This distribution minimizes geography for everybody, which is the goal. I definitely can see Lipscomb as a 15 and MTSU as a 10 in Nashville solely to sell tickets now that TN lost. I am hoping that doesn't happen to anyone but UNC. It's not fair and technically violates the bracket guidelines.

[richardjackson199]

Yep. It was a very costly loss seedwise.

I'm sure Jim Sumner could name several others, but Friday night's game was the most depressing non-NCAA tourney game I've ever seen from Duke. Just devastating. (Jim I'm not suggesting you try - not a fun exercise.)

But fortunately everybody is 0-0 again now. And the Big Dance matters so much more than everything else. A great 6 game run could make this one of our 8 best seasons ever (99 and 86 were pretty special). Or a first weekend exit could make it one of the most disappointing ever given the talent, potential, and hot start.

We're due for the former, and I think this team has it figured out to peak now if they can get/stay healthy. Go Duke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

But fortunately everybody is 0-0 again now. And the Big Dance matters so much more than everything else.

For better or worse - right or wrong - fair or unfair - doesn't matter. This is just the way it is now. In fact, in a sport like basketball, a single elimination crap shoot is the worst way to pick a champion, if landing on the absolute best team is your goal. Of course, it is the most exciting way to pick a champion, and because of how it has captivated the country, it is pretty much all that matters now.

Some years I've felt the burden of year long accomplishments and expectations heading into March Madness...(86,99,02,04 I think) and most of all 92. You know the players and coaches feel it too. It's human nature. This year, I feel the relief of being 0-0 again.

[DU82]

Am I counting wrong or are there likely to be 6 teams in from North Carolina? Have there ever been more from one State?

It appears that six is the record, Indiana in 2000, NC in 2002 (Duke, Wake, State, Charlotte, UNC-Wilmington and Davidson) and California in 2008.

So it would appear that this season would not break the record, nor tie it, as there's only five universities and colleges heading there, Duke, State, Davidson, NCCU and UNC-Greensboro. Plus a bunch of cheaters.

[richardjackson199]

I'm sure Jim Sumner could name several others, but Friday night's game was the most depressing non-NCAA tourney game I've ever seen from Duke. Just devastating. (Jim I'm not suggesting you try - not a fun exercise.)

But fortunately everybody is 0-0 again now. And the Big Dance matters so much more than everything else. A great 6 game run could make this one of our 8 best seasons ever (99 and 86 were pretty special). Or a first weekend exit could make it one of the most disappointing ever given the talent, potential, and hot start.

We're due for the former, and I think this team has it figured out to peak now if they can get/stay healthy. Go Duke!

I think 2nd weekend exit is most probable outcome given our likely seeding and draw. But probably none of us would be shocked with a first weekend exit or a national championship run with this team. Literally anything can happen from here this year.

They're really going to have to fight to earn it, but I have a great feeling for a great early April!

[weezie]

This show is goofy so far.

[Troublemaker]

OMG this is horrible and drawn-out. Wow, we need a bracket leak.