MBB: Duke vs. Michigan St (Tue, 11/14, 7pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[MChambers]

Bridges gets all the hype, but MSU's biggest strength might be front court depth and skill. Jaren Jackson and Nick Ward et al will be fascinating matchups for our fearsome foursome of Bagley, Carter, Bolden and DeLaurier.

I wonder who guards Bridges when we're in man to man. I guess Trent? We might go big and have Bagley guard him at times. Could be a good opportunity for Javin, too.

Izzo teams are notoriously late blooming, but expectations are incredibly high this year, and I predict they'll play at a high level early and throughout the year. Only a 20 win team last season, so basically everyone is banking on an enormous improvement.

In addition to Jackson and Ward, who are quite good, MSU has Gavin Schilling, a 6'9" senior who missed last year with an injury, but who played significant minutes in the previous seasons, Kenny Goins, a 6'7" senior, Ben Carter, a 6'9" sixth year grad transfer, and Xavier Tillman, a big freshman who was the #1 recruit out of Michigan last year. So the frontfcourt is very experienced and deep.

The starting guards are sophomores and are good. The backup guards have a lot of experience, but are erratic.

https://www.theonlycolors.com/2017/1...now-the-roster

[CDu]

MSU will provide a nice early-season test for us. They have some interesting similarities.

Frontcourt: The Spartans are BIG. They Ward (6'8", 245lb soph) and Jackson (6'11", 240lb frosh). Both are capable scorers, but both appear to be foul-prone. Well, Ward is definitely foul-prone, while Jackson committed 4 fouls in 22 minutes in his first game. Jackson is a top-10 recruit and potential impact player inside. They also start a college PF at SF in Bridges (6'7", 225lb soph). Bridges is the star of the team, and might have been a lottery pick had he declared last year. He's a superb athlete whose skills trail his athleticism a good bit. He's a good stand-still shooter, great leaper, and strong finisher around the rim. But he's not great off the dribble and can be quieted by good defensive awareness. Matt Jones held him in check last year. Off the bench, the Spartans bring Schilling (6'9", 245lb fifth-year senior) as the primary big. Schilling is basically a serviceable backup, not an impact player. He's minutes-filler in case of foul trouble to the starters. Bridges will also rotate up to PF when one or both of the starting bigs sit. In case of emergency, Tillman (6'8", 260lb frosh) can be used sparingly.

Wings: Bridges technically starts on the wing, though as noted above he'll also play PF. Alongside Bridges starts Langford (6'5", 210lb soph). Langford is a terrific shooter (41.6 3pt %; 49.7 fg%) and role player for the Spartans. Behind those two is McQuaid (6'4", 200lb junior). McQuaid is a decent shooter as well.

PG: Winston (6'0", 185lb soph) is the starter. He's a flashy passer and playmaker who averaged 5.2 apg last year. Not much size, and not a great defender though. Behind him is Nairns (5'10", 175lb senior), who can pass but not much else.

The Spartans are big, but not necessarily very deep. They'll play 8, although the dropoff from the top 4-5 to the next 3-4 is pretty substantive (not unlike Duke). Especially in the frontcourt. And aside from Bridges and Jackson, the team lacks punch offensively. Like Duke, they don't have a ton of shooters. If Winston and McQuaid are hitting, they have some versatility, but it's really Bridges and Langford from the perimeter.

On paper, I'd say we have a distinct edge at SG and PG, and an edge as well at PF and C, while MSU has the edge at SF. Off the bench, they have more proven options on the perimeter, while we appear to have an edge in depth and quality inside. This is one of the rare times in which I feel like we should win inside against MSU. Should be a tough game, and certainly one we could lose. Especially if Allen or Trent is cold. But hopefully we'll stifle them defensively and our outside shots will open things up for our bigs inside. Really looking forward to watching this one.

[ChillinDuke]

Thanks for reply and input. But There is a rule where you can still redshirt as long as you havn't played in a certain amount of games. the cut off is at somepoint in december, i believe. But im positive that his limited play in one game would not affect his ability to redshirt.

I believe you are referring to the cut-off for a medical redshirt. A non-medical redshirt has a binary cut-off: you either played in a game or didn't.

- Chillin

ETA - Others beat me to it.

[DevilFalcon]

Maybe I'm overconfident, ok... I'm probably overconfident, but I see us winning without a ton of trouble here. I think we'll win by 15 or more. I know they're more experienced, but we're on track to be phenomenal. It's simple math: K > Izzo

[ChillinDuke]

MSU will provide a nice early-season test for us. They have some interesting similarities.

Frontcourt: The Spartans are BIG. They Ward (6'8", 245lb soph) and Jackson (6'11", 240lb frosh). Both are capable scorers, but both appear to be foul-prone. Well, Ward is definitely foul-prone, while Jackson committed 4 fouls in 22 minutes in his first game. Jackson is a top-10 recruit and potential impact player inside. They also start a college PF at SF in Bridges (6'7", 225lb soph). Bridges is the star of the team, and might have been a lottery pick had he declared last year. He's a superb athlete whose skills trail his athleticism a good bit. He's a good stand-still shooter, great leaper, and strong finisher around the rim. But he's not great off the dribble and can be quieted by good defensive awareness. Matt Jones held him in check last year. Off the bench, the Spartans bring Schilling (6'9", 245lb fifth-year senior) as the primary big. Schilling is basically a serviceable backup, not an impact player. He's minutes-filler in case of foul trouble to the starters. Bridges will also rotate up to PF when one or both of the starting bigs sit. In case of emergency, Tillman (6'8", 260lb frosh) can be used sparingly.

Wings: Bridges technically starts on the wing, though as noted above he'll also play PF. Alongside Bridges starts Langford (6'5", 210lb soph). Langford is a terrific shooter (41.6 3pt %; 49.7 fg%) and role player for the Spartans. Behind those two is McQuaid (6'4", 200lb junior). McQuaid is a decent shooter as well.

PG: Winston (6'0", 185lb soph) is the starter. He's a flashy passer and playmaker who averaged 5.2 apg last year. Not much size, and not a great defender though. Behind him is Nairns (5'10", 175lb senior), who can pass but not much else.

The Spartans are big, but not necessarily very deep. They'll play 8, although the dropoff from the top 4-5 to the next 3-4 is pretty substantive (not unlike Duke). Especially in the frontcourt. And aside from Bridges and Jackson, the team lacks punch offensively. Like Duke, they don't have a ton of shooters. If Winston and McQuaid are hitting, they have some versatility, but it's really Bridges and Langford from the perimeter.

On paper, I'd say we have a distinct edge at SG and PG, and an edge as well at PF and C, while MSU has the edge at SF. Off the bench, they have more proven options on the perimeter, while we appear to have an edge in depth and quality inside. This is one of the rare times in which I feel like we should win inside against MSU. Should be a tough game, and certainly one we could lose. Especially if Allen or Trent is cold. But hopefully we'll stifle them defensively and our outside shots will open things up for our bigs inside. Really looking forward to watching this one.

Nice summary.

Early on, I'll be looking for how our freshmen, in particular, react to the size, length, and physicality of a top college team. Bagley is a gifted talent, but Nick Ward is big. Quite big. And if I remember correctly, he's great at carving out space and using his body around the hoop. If Bagley and/or Carter can navigate that sort of presence early, I think we'll be in great shape.

- Chillin

[flyingdutchdevil]

MSU will provide a nice early-season test for us. They have some interesting similarities.

Frontcourt: The Spartans are BIG. They Ward (6'8", 245lb soph) and Jackson (6'11", 240lb frosh). Both are capable scorers, but both appear to be foul-prone. Well, Ward is definitely foul-prone, while Jackson committed 4 fouls in 22 minutes in his first game. Jackson is a top-10 recruit and potential impact player inside. They also start a college PF at SF in Bridges (6'7", 225lb soph). Bridges is the star of the team, and might have been a lottery pick had he declared last year. He's a superb athlete whose skills trail his athleticism a good bit. He's a good stand-still shooter, great leaper, and strong finisher around the rim. But he's not great off the dribble and can be quieted by good defensive awareness. Matt Jones held him in check last year. Off the bench, the Spartans bring Schilling (6'9", 245lb fifth-year senior) as the primary big. Schilling is basically a serviceable backup, not an impact player. He's minutes-filler in case of foul trouble to the starters. Bridges will also rotate up to PF when one or both of the starting bigs sit. In case of emergency, Tillman (6'8", 260lb frosh) can be used sparingly.

Wings: Bridges technically starts on the wing, though as noted above he'll also play PF. Alongside Bridges starts Langford (6'5", 210lb soph). Langford is a terrific shooter (41.6 3pt %; 49.7 fg%) and role player for the Spartans. Behind those two is McQuaid (6'4", 200lb junior). McQuaid is a decent shooter as well.

PG: Winston (6'0", 185lb soph) is the starter. He's a flashy passer and playmaker who averaged 5.2 apg last year. Not much size, and not a great defender though. Behind him is Nairns (5'10", 175lb senior), who can pass but not much else.

The Spartans are big, but not necessarily very deep. They'll play 8, although the dropoff from the top 4-5 to the next 3-4 is pretty substantive (not unlike Duke). Especially in the frontcourt. And aside from Bridges and Jackson, the team lacks punch offensively. Like Duke, they don't have a ton of shooters. If Winston and McQuaid are hitting, they have some versatility, but it's really Bridges and Langford from the perimeter.

On paper, I'd say we have a distinct edge at SG and PG, and an edge as well at PF and C, while MSU has the edge at SF. Off the bench, they have more proven options on the perimeter, while we appear to have an edge in depth and quality inside. This is one of the rare times in which I feel like we should win inside against MSU. Should be a tough game, and certainly one we could lose. Especially if Allen or Trent is cold. But hopefully we'll stifle them defensively and our outside shots will open things up for our bigs inside. Really looking forward to watching this one.

This is going to be one helluva game. Coach K has Izzo's number, but I think that's a product of a) Coach K is a better early-season coach who knows his personnel really well, b) Duke often has more talent, and c) defenses are still trying to understand their potential (or lack thereof) in the early season and hence there is a slight over-reliance on offense.

This year, I think MSU and Duke match-up really well. As you said, Duke likely has an advantage at the 1, 2, 4, and 5. But the 3? I think Trent is great, but Miles is a beast. I think Miles, Brunson, and Colson are the best players in America based on last season (I'd add Grayson if I took the whole body of work rather than last year). Duke has an upgrade over MSU in the starting 5, but I'd go with MSU on the bench. And hopefully it won't get to that.

I hope Duke wins, but I'm more curious about the following questions:

1) Can Trevon still be uber effective against high-caliber teams?
2) Will Marvin's fast-twitch "kangaroo" tactics of getting his own missed shot work?
3) Will Javin/Marques provide solid support off the bench?
4) Can we keep the non-Gary/Grayson 3s to a minimum cus the rest of the team is terrible at 3s?

[Troublemaker]

Some miscellany:

Not that this matters, but ESPN's experts loved Michigan St in their preseason predictions, as the Spartans and Miles Bridges were easily the most popular picks for national champion and NPOY. Along the same lines, MSU was also the most heavily bet team to win it all by the public, according to this ESPN Chalk story. (Not trying to start a disrespected #1 angle -- I mean, who cares? But thought these were interesting to note.)

I do think if Grayson has a big game and Bridges falters, it won't be forgotten by NPOY voters later on. I'll be rooting hard for that to happen.

The Spartans start 4 sophomores and a freshman. So while analysts will be correct when they say MSU has an experience advantage, and that experience advantage may well play a role in deciding the outcome, gosh, they are a pretty young team, too.

[DevilYouKnow]

If we lose the game against MSU tomorrow night, our season is over.

[DukieInBrasil]

one of the concerns i have for this game is: How will Bagley's fantastic play so far translate to a taller, tougher opponent? Utah Valley had a couple of big dudes, and Mangyak (sp?) had a stellar game, and they were able to make some of Bagley's forays into the paint a bit too adventurous. Bagley took some misguided shots, which he was often able to offensively rebound and put back in, and i get the feeling that those same shot-rebound-score opportunities won't be available against a bigger, more talented and experienced frontcourt. I'll be looking for Bagley to be a bit smarter in recognizing that some of those off-balance among the trees shots aren't going to be effective and to look for other bigs around the basket or to redirect the ball. Fortunately for Duke, he's been pretty good at both of those so far.
I'll also be looking for Duval's passing game to tighten up a bit. He's been beyond fantastic so far, as some of those long outlet passes have hit guys fully extended for no-dribble layups. Some of those outlet passes may look enticing against MSU, but MSU has more length and athleticism than either Elon or USU, so if Trevon doesn't read the defense correctly some of those passes could get picked off. As i said, he's been great so far, and this game will be a great indicator for how advanced his court awareness is/not.
I get the sense from Carter that his post-play awareness is just so advanced that he won't be bothered too much by a shift from mid- to major opponents. He might not put up gaudy numbers, but i bet he'll be solid and efficient.
Trent is another big question mark for me. He's been a smart shooter and has shown the ability to finish at the rim, shoot the 3 and score in midrange, so i'll be looking for his situational awareness to assess whether he indeed has quality shots or not. All indications so far are that he's not a ball-stopping shooter.

So far, we've gotten a strong indication that we'll extensively use 7 guys (starters + Javin and Marques), so it'll be interesting to see who else gets called upon. I get the sense that we'll see J-Gold for at least a couple of minutes in the 1st half, if not more. I also suspect we may have an O'Connell sighting in the 1st half as well. J-Gold has done a competent job of handling the backup PG duties and i have a hunch that K will want to get a look at his composure on a bigger stage. Alex has brought an amazing level of energy to the court in his appearances so far, and has looked to make plays rather than just score, and that is what K loves. So i'm guessing we'll see 9 guys get some run vs MSU, and maybe a brief appearance from Vrank if we have foul trouble among the trees, but i don't really see any of the other wing/guard players (J-White, J-Rob, J-Tuck) getting minutes in this game.

[Troublemaker]

Like others I'm not worrying too much about this game in the big picture. Similar to last year when we narrowly lost to Kansas so early in the season, but without the injury component. We know there's a long way to go and this team has a lot of room for improvement.

With that said, if MSU beats us pretty handily and it's due to all of the things we feared coming into the season - lack of outside shooting, foul trouble exposing our lack of guard depth, poor spacing - then I might start to think we have somewhat of a lower ceiling and have just been beating up on bad teams. OTOH if we win then we'll be flying high, and it wouldn't be crazy to think that given our schedule we could run it all the way up to 17-0 leading into our game at Miami. I know that's getting way ahead of ourselves, but Indiana looks bad after losing to Indiana State so our only non-awful opponents would be in the PKI.

I wouldn't lower our ceiling over a bad shooting day. Those days are going to occur, and if it happens tomorrow, we'll likely lose, yes (unless MSU evens it out with their own bad shooting day). But all the top contenders -- MSU, Arizona, Villanova, etc -- will be susceptible to losing if they have a bad shooting day against another top contender. It takes luck to win it all.

Maybe I'm overconfident, ok... I'm probably overconfident, but I see us winning without a ton of trouble here. I think we'll win by 15 or more. I know they're more experienced, but we're on track to be phenomenal. It's simple math: K > Izzo

Hope you're right. Whether it's rational or not (and I know it's not), I'm expecting a loss because Sparty is so due for a win against us.

4) Can we keep the non-Gary/Grayson 3s to a minimum cus the rest of the team is terrible at 3s?

Depends on what you mean. The way Utah Valley was giving our bigs space and daring them to shoot, I actually do want our bigs to take those threes. Because if you allow an opposing to player to play way off of you, he can disrupt your offense, e.g. closing down passing lanes to the interior by standing in the paint.

[DukieInBrasil]

I wouldn't lower our ceiling over a bad shooting day. Those days are going to occur, and if it happens tomorrow, we'll likely lose, yes (unless MSU evens it out with their own bad shooting day). But all the top contenders -- MSU, Arizona, Villanova, etc -- will be susceptible to losing if they have a bad shooting day against another top contender. It takes luck to win it all.



Hope you're right. Whether it's rational or not (and I know it's not), I'm expecting a loss because Sparty is so due for a win against us.



Depends on what you mean. The way Utah Valley was giving our bigs space and daring them to shoot, I actually do want our bigs to take those threes. Because if you allow an opposing to player to play way off of you, he can disrupt your offense, e.g. closing down passing lanes to the interior by standing in the paint.

plus our offensive rebounding has been pretty awesome so far, so a missed shot could just become another possession. The 3s that Bagley, Carter and Delaurier (BCD) took in both games actually were all good takes and they all made 1, and are all shooting 33% on the season from 3. I'll take that.

[LasVegas]

plus our offensive rebounding has been pretty awesome so far, so a missed shot could just become another possession. The 3s that Bagley, Carter and Delaurier (BCD) took in both games actually were all good takes and they all made 1, and are all shooting 33% on the season from 3. I'll take that.

Right. 1/3 is fine. 2/10 or whatever is not. But I’m sure K is all over this.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Depends on what you mean. The way Utah Valley was giving our bigs space and daring them to shoot, I actually do want our bigs to take those threes. Because if you allow an opposing to player to play way off of you, he can disrupt your offense, e.g. closing down passing lanes to the interior by standing in the paint.

Utah Valley had a fairly smart strategy then, and I'm sure one that Izzo will replicate. Our Non-G/G 3pt shooting was 33% (not bad, not great) against UVU and 18% against Elon (and it would be 0% without Alex O'Connell).

If MSU provides our bigs with space (again, I think it's a very smart strategy), I would hope that we're smart with the ball and either get G/G open or rely on constant movement to get the bigs open down low. Another downside of having a big shoot a three is it hampers on of our greatest assets: offensive rebounding.

It's early in the season and I could be wrong on our non-G/G 3pt shooting, but I don't like what I'm seeing. It didn't help that Marvin celebrated his only 3pt shot of season like a 6'0" guard celebrates dunking in traffic (and you don't see Marvin celebrating a lot of dunks).

[uh_no]

plus our offensive rebounding has been pretty awesome so far, so a missed shot could just become another possession. The 3s that Bagley, Carter and Delaurier (BCD) took in both games actually were all good takes and they all made 1, and are all shooting 33% on the season from 3. I'll take that.

To be pedantic, and perhaps avoid confusion somewhere, technically in stats accounting, an offensive rebound does not become a new possession, but rather an extension to the previous possession...hence offensive rebounds are subtracted from FGA when calculating possessions. Without this caveat, a team which had a ton of offensive rebounds would have a lower offensive efficiency than one who scored, perhaps slightly less often, but on their first shot most of the time (due to having a ton more possessions). In short, counting an OR as a possession would penalize a team for doing something they should be doing.

It doesn't have any material impact on the game...only stats.

[91Duke]

I'm excited because I'm going to be at this game, which I expect to be highly entertaining and close -- but also nervous because I was also at the game against Kentucky in the United Center two years ago and that didn't turn out so well. Still, I think it's great to have this early season test.

[sagegrouse]

To be pedantic, and perhaps avoid confusion somewhere, technically in stats accounting, an offensive rebound does not become a new possession, but rather an extension to the previous possession...hence offensive rebounds are subtracted from FGA when calculating possessions. Without this caveat, a team which had a ton of offensive rebounds would have a lower offensive efficiency than one who scored, perhaps slightly less often, but on their first shot most of the time (due to having a ton more possessions). In short, counting an OR as a possession would penalize a team for doing something they should be doing.

It doesn't have any material impact on the game...only stats.

The other reason is, if you have a possession, there should be an equal number of possessions for both team (plus-or-minus one). If you keep the ball is is anew shot clock but not a new possession.

[kAzE]

On paper, I'd say we have a distinct edge at SG and PG, and an edge as well at PF and C, while MSU has the edge at SF. Off the bench, they have more proven options on the perimeter, while we appear to have an edge in depth and quality inside. This is one of the rare times in which I feel like we should win inside against MSU. Should be a tough game, and certainly one we could lose. Especially if Allen or Trent is cold. But hopefully we'll stifle them defensively and our outside shots will open things up for our bigs inside. Really looking forward to watching this one.

You know, I think the match up at the 3 will be the key to the game. I think Gary Trent is actually strong enough to cause Bridges some problems. Bridges has a couple of inches on Gary, but Gary might be the strongest guy on the team (it's between him and Wendell), so depending on how good his defense is at this point, it could actually be an okay matchup where Gary can slow him down just enough for us to get the win. Bagley will probably also match up with Bridges a decent amount, since he slides out to the perimeter when there are 2 other bigs in our lineup. I don't mind that matchup, either. I don't think Bridges can handle Marvin in the post.

Then again, we've been switching everything in our M2M schemes and playing a TON of zone, so it might not matter too much who matches up with who when we are playing defense. If they can't hit 3s, and we go to the zone exclusively, we might run away with it. We haven't put together a signature defensive performance yet, but it's coming. It will take some time, but our defensive potential is sky high.

Our backcourt should be the mismatch that wins us this game (and yes, I'm predicting a victory for Duke). They match up with us well up front, but the 1-2 punch of Grayson and Tre are a huge mismatch in talent over MSU's guards. If we can be disciplined and avoid excessive turnovers, I love our chances to come out with a big win. If we are playing well and sharing the ball, I firmly believe our offensive talent is good enough to overcome even elite defenses. We have 5 guys who can really do some damage on offense, compared to their 1 or 2. Our transition offense is the best I've seen since Jason Williams was still at Duke. They will have a much harder time defending us than the other way around. I'm very confident in our chances to win.

LETS GO DUKE!

[duke79]

Maybe I'm overconfident, ok... I'm probably overconfident, but I see us winning without a ton of trouble here. I think we'll win by 15 or more. I know they're more experienced, but we're on track to be phenomenal. It's simple math: K > Izzo

I like your optimism and i hope you're right....but who the hell knows? So many variables....we could win easily but the young ones could also be nervous and not play well and it IS early in the season for such a young team. A big game from Grayson would be a HUGE help! I do like K over Izzo but the players have to play the game.

[sagegrouse]

I remember when Kyrie Irving went up against preseason A-A Jacob Pullen of #4 Kansas State when Pullen was the SI cover picture for the hoops issue in this part of the country. No contest. Kyrie turned him inside out and held Pullen to 1-12 from the field, one assist and three turnovers. It was #1 Duke's fifth game of the season and established Kyrie as perhaps the best player in the country.

Maybe Marvin Bagley will make the same kind of statement against Michigan State.

[MChambers]

Then again, we've been switching everything in our M2M schemes and playing a TON of zone, so it might not matter too much who matches up with who when we are playing defense. If they can't hit 3s, and we go to the zone exclusively, we might run away with it. We haven't put together a signature defensive performance yet, but it's coming. It will take some time, but our defensive potential is sky high.

Our backcourt should be the mismatch that wins us this game (and yes, I'm predicting a victory for Duke). They match up with us well up front, but the 1-2 punch of Grayson and Tre are a huge mismatch in talent over MSU's guards. If we can be disciplined and avoid excessive turnovers, I love our chances to come out with a big win. If we are playing well and sharing the ball, I firmly believe our offensive talent is good enough to overcome even elite defenses. We have 5 guys who can really do some damage on offense, compared to their 1 or 2. Our transition offense is the best I've seen since Jason Williams was still at Duke. They will have a much harder time defending us than the other way around. I'm very confident in our chances to win.

LETS GO DUKE!

I think MSU may be pretty vulnerable to the zone. Like us, they don’t have a ton of shooters, and certainly no one as good as Grayson. Of course, MSU is big, so offensive rebounds in the zone could be a big issue.