PHASE I: Elon through Phil Knight Invitational

[superdave]

One thing I will be watching is whether anyone other than Trent and Allen can be a reliable threat from 3. In the two exhibition games all other players are a collective 3-22 from deep. It looks a little better if you include CTC - the numbers change to 10-40 - but still not great shooting. Our spacing on offense is going to depend on someone being enough of a threat for defenses to respect on the perimeter.

Through two games, from 3-point land -

Allen/Trent are 17 for 28 (.607).

The rest of the team is 5 for 20 (.250).

I dont know how often Duvall will shoot them, but I think Bagley could get much more comfortable in catch and shoot 3's by February. That's a game changer.

[camion]

Through two games, from 3-point land -

Allen/Trent are 17 for 28 (.607).

The rest of the team is 5 for 20 (.250).

I dont know how often Duvall will shoot them, but I think Bagley could get much more comfortable in catch and shoot 3's by February. That's a game changer.

I don't even want to consider this; it leads to visions of sugar plums and such.

[Kedsy]

I dont know how often Duvall will shoot them, but I think Bagley could get much more comfortable in catch and shoot 3's by February. That's a game changer.

I'm not so sure. He doesn't seem to have much "touch" on his shot, though I guess he's 1 for 3 so far which isn't terrible. I don't see either Marvin or Trevon (0 for 3) getting much above 25% on long distance shots.

Wendell (1 for 3), however actually seems to have a decent shooting motion from out there (not so much from the free throw line, sadly). And Javin (1 for 3) has kind of a line drive shot but I could see him shooting a decent percentage too.

It's possible the "non-shooting" rotation players get up to 30% on threes by the end of the season. Assuming Grayson and/or Gary don't go into lengthy shooting slumps, we should be OK from out there.

[sagegrouse]

Through two games, from 3-point land -

Allen/Trent are 17 for 28 (.607).

The rest of the team is 5 for 20 (.250).

I dont know how often Duvall will shoot them, but I think Bagley could get much more comfortable in catch and shoot 3's by February. That's a game changer.

What would be a game changer is if Marvin could make 80 percent of his free throws as opposed to 22 percent.

[dukelifer]

What would be a game changer is if Marvin could make 80 percent of his free throws as opposed to 22 percent.

Yes- the bigs better hit them at least 70% or it will be tough in tight games.

[Kedsy]

Yes- the bigs better hit them at least 70% or it will be tough in tight games.

Having watched the free throw strokes of our bigs, my guess is that none of them will. It's possible a couple of them can reach the mid-60s, but far from a lock.

That said, in 2015 our three main bigs shot 51%, 55%, and 64% from the line and it turned out OK. Our fourth big that year (MP3) shot 71% in limited attempts, but looking at his career numbers that was somewhat of a fluke.

[UrinalCake]

I dislike the large gaps in play...

The FSU game on New Year's Eve really scares me, in much the same way the ACC opener at VT scared me last season. We always play a terrible game or two after these long breaks, typically against a weak opponent where we can get away with it.

As an objective fan of college basketball, part of me likes seeing our play drop off so much because it reminds me that these are kids we are watching, who happen to be students as well, and the pressures of exams and the disruption of the holidays are real things. These aren't the robots we see in the NBA. But yeah, if we come out flat against FSU after such a long break and wind up losing, it won't shock me.

[jv001]

I'm not so sure. He doesn't seem to have much "touch" on his shot, though I guess he's 1 for 3 so far which isn't terrible. I don't see either Marvin or Trevon (0 for 3) getting much above 25% on long distance shots.

Wendell (1 for 3), however actually seems to have a decent shooting motion from out there (not so much from the free throw line, sadly). And Javin (1 for 3) has kind of a line drive shot but I could see him shooting a decent percentage too.

It's possible the "non-shooting" rotation players get up to 30% on threes by the end of the season. Assuming Grayson and/or Gary don't go into lengthy shooting slumps, we should be OK from out there.

My eye test seems to agree with your assessment of Carter's shooting form. I think a player's shooting form tells a lot about the consistency of makes from deep. The JJ's, Trajon's, Christians and Grayson's forms were all good and they were good 3 point shooters. Gary seems to have good shooting form as well this season. GoDuke!

[NSDukeFan]

The FSU game on New Year's Eve really scares me, in much the same way the ACC opener at VT scared me last season. We always play a terrible game or two after these long breaks, typically against a weak opponent where we can get away with it.

As an objective fan of college basketball, part of me likes seeing our play drop off so much because it reminds me that these are kids we are watching, who happen to be students as well, and the pressures of exams and the disruption of the holidays are real things. These aren't the robots we see in the NBA. But yeah, if we come out flat against FSU after such a long break and wind up losing, it won't shock me.

It happens every year. These darn student athletes seem to take their schoolwork pretty seriously and after a nice run to start the year, fall off around study time and holidays. Then there is always the start of conference play and true road games, which every team has to learn to win. Makes every year fun and interesting.

[brlftz]

That said, in 2015 our three main bigs shot 51%, 55%, and 64% from the line and it turned out OK. Our fourth big that year (MP3) shot 71% in limited attempts, but looking at his career numbers that was somewhat of a fluke.

Are you counting Justise as a big?

My feeling is we should be expecting 50% from these guys. I’d be real happy with 60%

[Kedsy]

Are you counting Justise as a big?

I am. He played as much or more PF as he did SF, and if you don't count Justise we only had two bigs who played double-figure mpg.

[pfrduke]

I am. He played as much or more PF as he did SF, and if you don't count Justise we only had two bigs who played double-figure mpg.

One critical FT stat for Justise was the 76% he shot over the course of the tournament (including 6-6 against Gonzaga and 9-11 against MSU). Hopefully Bagley or Carter goes on a similar 6-game stretch this spring.

[superdave]

I'm not so sure. He doesn't seem to have much "touch" on his shot, though I guess he's 1 for 3 so far which isn't terrible. I don't see either Marvin or Trevon (0 for 3) getting much above 25% on long distance shots.

Wendell (1 for 3), however actually seems to have a decent shooting motion from out there (not so much from the free throw line, sadly). And Javin (1 for 3) has kind of a line drive shot but I could see him shooting a decent percentage too.

It's possible the "non-shooting" rotation players get up to 30% on threes by the end of the season. Assuming Grayson and/or Gary don't go into lengthy shooting slumps, we should be OK from out there.

Well, we are into the extended shooting slump portion of the season already!

Allen started the season 17-26 and has followed that up since Sparty by going 4-23. That's still .429 on the season.

Trent started 7-13 and has been 5-27 since for .300.

Duval is 2-17 and probably should not shoot any 3's unless it is late in the shot clock.

[DukieInBrasil]

Well, we are into the extended shooting slump portion of the season already!

Allen started the season 17-26 and has followed that up since Sparty by going 4-23. That's still .429 on the season.

Trent started 7-13 and has been 5-27 since for .300.

Duval is 2-17 and probably should not shoot any 3's unless it is late in the shot clock.

The non-G's (Grayson and Gary) have made 14 of 65 3FGs, bad enough for 21%. So our non-G shooters are making ~2-9 3s per game, which is a lot worse than i was hoping for %-wise, but only 1 made 3 per game below what would be pretty solid.

[chriso]

While I am thrilled we won yesterday I woke up wondering why we got down 16 to Texas in the first place. Youth I suppose. I'm not a morning person so negative thinking is the norm before coffee. That said I was very impressed with out heart and toughness, and Bagley might be the best player in the country. I have heard Grayson and Javin are banged up which explains some things. Looking forward to the matchup with Florida. I am super impressed with O'Connell; I know he's not quite Dunleavy the second yet but he has made plays in two straight games that reminded me of Dunleavy. Kid is a stud.

[BandAlum83]

The FSU game on New Year's Eve really scares me, in much the same way the ACC opener at VT scared me last season. We always play a terrible game or two after these long breaks, typically against a weak opponent where we can get away with it.

As an objective fan of college basketball, part of me likes seeing our play drop off so much because it reminds me that these are kids we are watching, who happen to be students as well, and the pressures of exams and the disruption of the holidays are real things. These aren't the robots we see in the NBA. But yeah, if we come out flat against FSU after such a long break and wind up losing, it won't shock me.

Great point! A (GA) Techster was just telling me yesterday how a correlation study was done matching Ben Lammers game performance against Ben Lammers' (mechanical engineering major) test schedule and how his game performance greatly suffered in the days after major tests.

This guy indicated that as a result, they are looking at making adjustments to the test schedule.

[kmspeaks]

Great point! A (GA) Techster was just telling me yesterday how a correlation study was done matching Ben Lammers game performance against Ben Lammers' (mechanical engineering major) test schedule and how his game performance greatly suffered in the days after major tests.

This guy indicated that as a result, they are looking at making adjustments to the test schedule.

I thought college athletes didn't take tests. I know they don't at uNC and the heels said it wasn't a big deal because everybody's doing it.

[BandAlum83]

I thought college athletes didn't take tests. I know they don't at uNC and the heels said it wasn't a big deal because everybody's doing it.

Not everything you read on the interwebs or the google machine is true. Beware!

[devilsince1977]

What was good:

8-0 with 2 wins against top 10 teams. 2 wins with double digit, second half comebacks.

MBIII is better than advertised and expected. He a very unique talent. I have quit trying to compare him to other players; Duke or otherwise. He has already earned his own identity.

As I expected; the target on Grayson's back is bigger and bolder than ever. He is going to have to show greater restraint than any player in NCAA history. The good news about that is his teammates seem to be aware of it and have his back.

Gary Trent is this year's STONES.

Wendell can preform at an elite level, he just needs to do it more consistently.

Trevon may be a little raw at times, but he shows flashes of brilliance both offensively and defensively.

We have 4 competent back ups in Javin, Marques, AOC, and Goldwire. They may not get significant minutes in all contested games; but they can all contribute when the match ups are favorable.

For the NOT-SO-GOOD:

Nevermind, we are 8-0!!!!