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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Duke opened -19 on the Vegas lines. Five books reporting so far. The offshore lines are more or less in agreement. Some 19.5s to be had, if you're so inclined slash lucky.

    What say ye degenerates?

    - Chillin
    With Duke, the two angles I'm approaching us from early in the season:
    (1) Duke's defense will be underrated
    (2) Duke's fast pace will be underrated

    Both of those angles work together for a spread play on Duke, so I put in a $300 bet on us to cover 19.5. Why not a max bet ($500)? Because I'll be watching the game and looking to confirm (or reject) my two angles / hypotheses. At this point, I feel confident enough in the angles to bet (especially with fake money, haha) but not to max-bet. I also like that Elon played us close last season and had a halftime lead on us. They will have Duke's full attention.

    I'm not going to play the total, which will come in at around 156. Here, the two angles are at cross-purposes. Duke's underrated defense would push me Under, but Duke's fast pace would push me Over. If anyone's playing the Over, beware that if everything goes well for Duke in this game and we have a 30-pt lead in the second half, those last few minutes of the game will slow to a crawl. We'll be in zone defense to rest legs, and we'll play stallball on the other end. It would almost make me lean under, except I expect Duke's 1st-half pace to be blistering.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    With Duke, the two angles I'm approaching us from early in the season:
    (1) Duke's defense will be underrated
    (2) Duke's fast pace will be underrated

    Both of those angles work together for a spread play on Duke, so I put in a $300 bet on us to cover 19.5. Why not a max bet ($500)? Because I'll be watching the game and looking to confirm (or reject) my two angles / hypotheses. At this point, I feel confident enough in the angles to bet (especially with fake money, haha) but not to max-bet. I also like that Elon played us close last season and had a halftime lead on us. They will have Duke's full attention.

    I'm not going to play the total, which will come in at around 156. Here, the two angles are at cross-purposes. Duke's underrated defense would push me Under, but Duke's fast pace would push me Over. If anyone's playing the Over, beware that if everything goes well for Duke in this game and we have a 30-pt lead in the second half, those last few minutes of the game will slow to a crawl. We'll be in zone defense to rest legs, and we'll play stallball on the other end. It would almost make me lean under, except I expect Duke's 1st-half pace to be blistering.
    I love it.

    I, too, am not touching the total. In fact, I'm not sure I'm going to touch the game at all. If anything, my model says take Elon and the points, but not overwhelmingly so.

    - Chillin

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    I love it.

    I, too, am not touching the total. In fact, I'm not sure I'm going to touch the game at all. If anything, my model says take Elon and the points, but not overwhelmingly so.

    - Chillin
    Ooh, a math player. I'll be interested in seeing how you fare vs "kenpombets", Chillin'

  4. #24
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Ooh, a math player. I'll be interested in seeing how you fare vs "kenpombets", Chillin'
    You know how this ends...

    - Chillin

    ETA - Also, I know how this ends...

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    My bets are placed!

    Thanks for setting the contest up, Jason! This was a lot of fun last season and I expect it will be again.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Wilmington, NC
    500 units on northern Iowa. 500 units on Duke! Let's do this!!

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    500 units on northern Iowa. 500 units on Duke! Let's do this!!
    One of those bets is looking good... the one I really care about
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Hudson Valley, NY
    Looking forward to defending my title!

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    I took the under (126.5) in the Virginia game - that bet is looking good at the half as 49 total points have been scored.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Wilmington, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I took the under (126.5) in the Virginia game - that bet is looking good at the half as 49 total points have been scored.
    Jason does not approve.of under bets. God speed Bob Green. God speed.

  11. #31
    I didn't see the option for an O/U bet, did I miss something?

    So far, seems like a fun contest. WTH happened to WF?

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    ...did I miss something?
    Yes. The O/U is right there hiding in plain sight.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I didn't see the option for an O/U bet, did I miss something?

    So far, seems like a fun contest. WTH happened to WF?
    The O/U numbers often show up after the lines are posted. I looked earlier and there were only lines posted but I just looked again and the O/U was available.

    The Duke game is not yet posted. Will need to check later to see if they get it up.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  14. #34
    I'd like to cash out now. How do I get my check?

    Thanks!

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Wilmington, NC
    Went 3-0 last night on Champions Classic bets to get back in the black. Got some work left to do to catch Curtis325 and Packman97 it appears. Just can't bet on stupid games with huge point spreads just because I'm a degenerate.

    I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
    I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
    I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
    I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
    I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
    I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
    I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
    I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    Went 3-0 last night on Champions Classic bets to get back in the black. Got some work left to do to catch Curtis325 and Packman97 it appears. Just can't bet on stupid games with huge point spreads just because I'm a degenerate.
    My fellow degenerate, please note that you should only be wagering on games involving ACC teams. See the rules in post 1 of this thread.

    Overall, it looks like you've gone 1-3 in non-ACC games (the lone win being last night), so there will be no need for you to lose games on purpose since there was no benefit to you. (Picking losers on purpose was Sportsbook Manager Jason Evans' solution to such mistakes last season, and it could get entertaining watching people chase losses).

    Props to Curtis and Packman so far. Nice work!

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    Went 3-0 last night on Champions Classic bets to get back in the black. Got some work left to do to catch Curtis325 and Packman97 it appears. Just can't bet on stupid games with huge point spreads just because I'm a degenerate.
    Ummm, I have some bad news Mr. Left_Hook. You have broken the rules of the contest.

    You are only allowed to be on games involving ACC teams!!!

    This was made clear at the start of the contest. Your successful wager on the Kentucky-Kansas game last night was illegal, as was 3 other games you bet upon that were not involving ACC teams. Now, the other 3 wagers were all losses, so I am going to be nice and not force you to wipe those games out. But, you need to pick a game and wager 100 units on it (the same amount as your Kansas wager) and then lose that bet. Please post in this forum which game (it can be any game, not bounded by ACC rules) you are planning to lose. If you are lucky, you will lose the first time you try. But, if you try to lose and accidentally win, you will be required to pick another game to lose and this time you must wager 200 units... and so on until you have successfully wiped out the loss. Trust me, this can take time and can be quite costly to your bank account. Just be thankful you only wagered 100 units!

    -Jason "I hope everyone else fully understands this rule!" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Wilmington, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    My fellow degenerate, please note that you should only be wagering on games involving ACC teams. See the rules in post 1 of this thread.

    Overall, it looks like you've gone 1-3 in non-ACC games (the lone win being last night), so there will be no need for you to lose games on purpose since there was no benefit to you. (Picking losers on purpose was Sportsbook Manager Jason Evans' solution to such mistakes last season, and it could get entertaining watching people chase losses).

    Props to Curtis and Packman so far. Nice work!
    Crap. Good call. I completely forgot about the ACC teams only rule. Hopefully, Jason "bone saw" Evans, the most feared bookie in the land, doesn't send Ugly Vinnie and Jimmy Whispers to handle me.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Props to Curtis and Packman so far. Nice work!
    I wish I could say I knew what I was doing :/

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Albemarle, North Carolina
    So how can we just view ACC teams? It only let's me see 1 ACC game and doesn't let me choose which?
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge" -Stephen Hawking

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