MBB: Duke 116, Bowie St 53 - Post-Game Thread (Pre-Season)

[OldPhiKap]

Sage, you spotting OPK a "greater than or equal to" is like giving a Carolina player more time on the take home that he doesn't have to turn in. It just doesn't matter.

I got to twenty about thirty one years ago. “Get to” is a threshold, not a destination.

Oh, and 9F Carolina. In every way, shape, form, fashion, mode, means, and reality. All day, every day. Even on Leap Day, and with an extra hour on Daylight’s Savings Time. 9F ‘em.

[Furniture]

I plan on seeing as many games as I can. Time for Duval O'Connell and Goldwire to accept punishment and get ready on Monday. Character building.

They all seemed to be in good spirits and taking their punishment well...

[whereinthehellami]

I know DeLaurier picked up 2 quick fouls but he only played 14 minutes. I was hoping he would get more time and would try to do a little more on offense. He did get 3 assists though.

I've been pleased with Vranks. He looks really comfortable out there. Really seems to know and embrace his role. Got 3 blocks and had solid position down low. Not really expecting Duke to need him much this year but I like his trajectory for next year.

[elvis14]

Mods, maybe break this out into a separate thread? I actually think it's impossible to get to 20 counting by 3's. 18 or 21, sure, but not 20. I think that's a fair statement and not straying too much into PPB math material, but please delete if not.

At the risk of hitting PBB material: "I was told there would be no math"

[Duke95]

I actually think it's impossible to get to 20 counting by 3's.

I think Debby Crowder had one of those "customized educational opportunity" classes at UNC where you could get to 20 counting by any number you wanted.

[thedukelamere]

I think Debby Crowder had one of those "customized educational opportunity" classes at UNC where you could get to 20 counting by any number you wanted.

That implies there would be effort put forth by the student to 1. select the number by which they'd like to count and 2. actually count to 20... Well above the established curriculum at $NCheat.

[evrim]

At the risk of hitting PBB material: "I was told there would be no math"

https://vimeo.com/65921206

[Reilly]

That implies there would be effort put forth by the student to 1. select the number by which they'd like to count and 2. actually count to 20... Well above the established curriculum at $NCheat.

Math 301: Attempts at Counting

In this independent study, students may attempt to count to 20, but only if they want. Students who graduated high school with all of their fingers and toes automatically receive course credit and need not enroll.

[ElSid]

So tempted to take that bet. I think he averages nearly 20ppg. But with 4 legit scorers? Trent and Carter will put up some serious points.

The usual $1.00?

I think we'll be a very high scoring team so there's room for Grayson to hit 20+ and four or five others to be in or near double figures.

Early signs are that the team is willing to make extra passes to get the most open looks. If Grayson shoots 40+% from three, he can be very efficient and rack up the points quickly.

Calling it a lock is probably silly but it's on the cusp. Not sure what his actual over/under is but I'm sure someone in Vegas is calculating that. We're also likely to play at a high tempo.

If we average mid 80s, the math works out.

[kAzE]

So tempted to take that bet. I think he averages nearly 20ppg. But with 4 legit scorers? Trent and Carter will put up some serious points.

I would probably put the over/under at 20, and take the over. Grayson has been pacing himself in the preseason, but I think he will be in F.U. mode all year, possibly with the NPOY race in the back of his mind. Right now against these cupcakes, everyone wants to get a piece of the action, but I think the younger guys will defer to him in tougher games, and he's totally capable of taking over when he wants to. He wont be playing minutes in the low 20s like he has been so far, and his usage is going to be massive.

[DukieInBrasil]

I would probably put the over/under at 20, and take the over. Grayson has been pacing himself in the preseason, but I think he will be in F.U. mode all year, possibly with the NPOY race in the back of his mind. Right now against these cupcakes, everyone wants to get a piece of the action, but I think the younger guys will defer to him in tougher games, and he's totally capable of taking over when he wants to. He wont be playing minutes in the low 20s like he has been so far.

I think this is the key. K loves to put players in position to succede, and when they succede they get accolades. K obviously loves Grayson, both as a player and as a young man. I think K is gonna do everything he can to put Grayson in a position to get recognized as the best player in the country, if Grayson shows that he is capable of it. If Grayson can do what K thinks he's capable of (and what most of the Duke fanbase too), then it wouldn't surprise me to see him average well over 20ppg. With so many players that command attention in the post, and with Grayson's speed and conditioning running thru picks, he ought to get plenty of open looks from 3 and i wouldn't be surprised if he shoots well north of 40% on high volume from 3. I don't think he'll score at Sr. JJ level, but Jr JJ level seems attainable, which was just south of 22ppg. Grayson's best year from 3 was 41.7%, JJ's best year from 3 was 42.1%, so Grayson can certainly shoot in that neighborhood, if not better.
Otoh, if Grayson's performance indicates that he's nowhere near the NPOY conversation, K will probably go with a game plan that doesn't feature Grayson as much, but as long as he's in the conversation i think K will feature him.
Overall, i think that if Duke reaches its potential this year Grayson will have a stand-out type season. Having a stand-out type season on a feared, national title contending team will probably keep him in the running for NPOY.

[uh_no]

The usual $1.00?

I think we'll be a very high scoring team so there's room for Grayson to hit 20+ and four or five others to be in or near double figures.

Early signs are that the team is willing to make extra passes to get the most open looks. If Grayson shoots 40+% from three, he can be very efficient and rack up the points quickly.

Calling it a lock is probably silly but it's on the cusp. Not sure what his actual over/under is but I'm sure someone in Vegas is calculating that. We're also likely to play at a high tempo.

If we average mid 80s, the math works out.

I think we might need a PPG prediction contest!

[luvdahops]

The usual $1.00?

I think we'll be a very high scoring team so there's room for Grayson to hit 20+ and four or five others to be in or near double figures.

Early signs are that the team is willing to make extra passes to get the most open looks. If Grayson shoots 40+% from three, he can be very efficient and rack up the points quickly.

Calling it a lock is probably silly but it's on the cusp. Not sure what his actual over/under is but I'm sure someone in Vegas is calculating that. We're also likely to play at a high tempo.

If we average mid 80s, the math works out.

I think there is a lot of logic for Grayson averaging 20+, even on a stacked team with multiple other good options offensively. But I expect he'll come in at more like ~18-19 overall, but over 20 in ACC games and postseason play. FWIW, the SI simulation-based forecast has Allen at 18.7 (followed by Bagley at 16.5, Duval at 14.2 (?), Carter at 12.0 and Trent at 10.8). I tend to think the Allen and Bagley scoring predictions will prove pretty close to spot on, while Carter and Trent look low, and Duval too high (I expect closer to 10-11 ppg, 6-7 apg for him).