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Thread: Hurricane Irma

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northwest NC

    Hurricane Irma

    So at the 11:00 am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Irma now has sustained winds of 180 mph. To put this in perspective, that is the equivalent wind speed of an F3 tornado. It is the strongest Atlantic basin hurricane outside of the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico in NHC records. The pressure continues to drop (925mb in the last aircraft fix) indicating that Irma is still strengthening.

    The forecast track is looking more and more grim for south Florida and the intensity, although not quite at the strength it is now, is still predicted to be at least a Cat 4 when it gets there.

    I'm a bit of a weather geek and have followed the dynamics of these things for a long time and the satellite presentation of Irma in the last couple of hours is about as impressive as you will ever see. Truly amazing.
    "The future ain't what it used to be."

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by DUKIECB View Post
    So at the 11:00 am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Irma now has sustained winds of 180 mph. To put this in perspective, that is the equivalent wind speed of an F3 tornado. It is the strongest Atlantic basin hurricane outside of the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico in NHC records. The pressure continues to drop (925mb in the last aircraft fix) indicating that Irma is still strengthening.

    The forecast track is looking more and more grim for south Florida and the intensity, although not quite at the strength it is now, is still predicted to be at least a Cat 4 when it gets there.

    I'm a bit of a weather geek and have followed the dynamics of these things for a long time and the satellite presentation of Irma in the last couple of hours is about as impressive as you will ever see. Truly amazing.
    The sad thing is, the best defense against Irma's full wrath is if she ravages Cuba or Hispaniola first instead of an initial hit on the mainland. Someone is gonna take this really hard, and it is difficult to think that we have to hope a poor island nation gets it instead of us. But that's the physics/nature of it.

    As a corollary -- people ignore the warnings of climatologists at their own peril, I am afraid.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by DUKIECB View Post
    So at the 11:00 am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Irma now has sustained winds of 180 mph. To put this in perspective, that is the equivalent wind speed of an F3 tornado. It is the strongest Atlantic basin hurricane outside of the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico in NHC records. The pressure continues to drop (925mb in the last aircraft fix) indicating that Irma is still strengthening.

    The forecast track is looking more and more grim for south Florida and the intensity, although not quite at the strength it is now, is still predicted to be at least a Cat 4 when it gets there.

    I'm a bit of a weather geek and have followed the dynamics of these things for a long time and the satellite presentation of Irma in the last couple of hours is about as impressive as you will ever see. Truly amazing.
    Good links?

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    The sad thing is, the best defense against Irma's full wrath is if she ravages Cuba or Hispaniola first instead of an initial hit on the mainland. Someone is gonna take this really hard, and it is difficult to think that we have to hope a poor island nation gets it instead of us. But that's the physics/nature of it.

    As a corollary -- people ignore the warnings of climatologists at their own peril, I am afraid.
    Indeed, those tiny third world countries are about to get the serious hammer drop. Say some prayers.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by fidel View Post
    Good links?
    Weather Undreground is always one of my favorites. As is the National Hurricane Center.
    WU: https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...cal-storm-irma
    NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...html?tswind120


  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northwest NC
    Quote Originally Posted by fidel View Post
    Good links?
    Irma.jpg
    Textbook.

    As others have said, the U.S. would benefit from the islands taking more of the storm but a Cat 4 or 5 there would mean enormous loss of life and property.
    "The future ain't what it used to be."

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    At this point, there's probably no non-terrible outcome to this. For instance, my admin's sister and her husband live on St. Thomas, thought they had a charter flight available to get them off the island, but just learned that the airport is shutting down & is highly unlikely to let them fly. Scary stuff. And heaven help Texans/Louisianans if this thing does happen to get into the Gulf. And heaven help Florida/Georgia/Carolinas if it doesn't.

    I have an NSFW name or two for Mother Nature lately . . . .
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  8. #8
    The potential storm in the Gulf right now may play a factor in where Irma ends up. Jose looks like it will run into Irma, this will all be very interesting to see where 3 potential storms end up.

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    This reminds me of Hurricane Floyd, back in 1999. Heading straight for Florida, then took a right turn and barreled into North Carolina.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    The potential storm in the Gulf right now may play a factor in where Irma ends up. Jose looks like it will run into Irma, this will all be very interesting to see where 3 potential storms end up.
    That sounds like a confrontation worthy of pay-per-view

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    That sounds like a confrontation worthy of pay-per-view
    Depends on where you live, 😎

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Hate to curse anyone with this storm, but it would be best if it tracked a little south and hit the mountains of southeast Cuba. We here in Florida are going to get pounded regardless, and we don't have any topography to take the punch out of her like Cuba does.

    There have been only 6 Atlantic storms in recorded history with sustained winds greater than 180 mph. People around here are talking about it as a Category 6, although there is officially no such thing. But the scale does go in 15-25 mph increments, and Category 5 starts at 157. So...

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northwest NC
    Pressure continues to drop and is now at 916mb. Just a monster. I feel for folks in the Lessor Antilles and Virgin islands tonight. It's going to be ugly.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, Va
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Hate to curse anyone with this b*tch of a storm, but it would be best if it tracked a little south and hit the mountains of southeast Cuba. We here in Florida are going to get pounded regardless, and we don't have any topography to take the punch out of her like Cuba does.

    There have been only 6 Atlantic storms in recorded history with sustained winds greater than 180 mph. People around here are talking about it as a Category 6, although there is officially no such thing. But the scale does go in 15-25 mph increments, and Category 5 starts at 157. So...
    I am also an absolute weather-geek; this is one scary storm which could easily strengthen over the next day or so. Steering, by almost all models (eerily almost the same), have it hitting near Miami and possibly turning NW through all of Florida and into the interior, such as Tenn and Ky and WVA. This, obviously could change as there's a cold-front coming through tonight.

    It appears to be about "the perfect storm" and now the pressure has dropped 10 more millibars to 916, lowest I've ever seen.

    Good luck to us all!!!

  15. #15
    Barbuda is the first place that is going to get hit.
    Winds are picking up now. Up to ~30 MPH as I write this.

    https://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/BARA9.html

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Summerville ,S.C.
    I live near charleston sc.if i go inland i could be running into it.if i stay i could be right in it aswell.ive done all the prep i can do.i do not know how much affect hitting florida will have on irma's strength.i can ride out a cat2.
    I cannot do another hugo.i just cant
    Put my family through that.more or less im at my wits end trying to decide what to do.there are no good scenarios for millions of people.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by wavedukefan70s View Post
    I live near charleston sc.if i go inland i could be running into it.if i stay i could be right in it aswell.ive done all the prep i can do.i do not know how much affect hitting florida will have on irma's strength.i can ride out a cat2.
    I cannot do another hugo.i just cant
    Put my family through that.more or less im at my wits end trying to decide what to do.there are no good scenarios for millions of people.
    Wait a couple days before you panic. Probability you get a severe hit in Charleston is pretty low right now. It can't get to you until at least Monday and a lot can happen by then. By Friday afternoon it will be a lot clearer for you.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northwest NC
    https://mobile.twitter.com/NASA_SPoR...583681/photo/1 That is super cool and super scary at the same time!
    "The future ain't what it used to be."

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Having lived in Florida a few decades now, I'm pretty informed about all things Hurricane. Comes with the territory. For those that are new to hurricane-prone areas or just fascinated by this storm, this is one of the best articles I've ever seen about models, forecasting, and such:

    http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wir...arios-49639551

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Summerville ,S.C.
    Quote Originally Posted by BigWayne View Post
    Wait a couple days before you panic. Probability you get a severe hit in Charleston is pretty low right now. It can't get to you until at least Monday and a lot can happen by then. By Friday afternoon it will be a lot clearer for you.
    Yeah i know but.we got it pretty good during hugo.these storms give me anxiety big time.as you can probably tell.

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