2019 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[bullettoothtony]

I know we're early in the reporting stage, but could this info about Bill Self end up helping us with Matthew Hurt?

[jimsumner]

I know we're early in the reporting stage, but could this info about Bill Self end up helping us with Matthew Hurt?

Yes.

Duke really needs to get one of Carey or Stewart to have a realistic chance at Hurt. Hurt does not want to play in the post.

[bullettoothtony]

Yes.

Duke really needs to get one of Carey or Stewart to have a realistic chance at Hurt. Hurt does not want to play in the post.

Jim, how do things look with Carey? I keep hearing Stewart looks like less and less of a possibility (referring to chatter of course).

[DavidBenAkiva]

Jim, how do things look with Carey? I keep hearing Stewart looks like less and less of a possibility (referring to chatter of course).

If you go by this picture that Vernon Carey, Jr. posted on social media, he looks pretty happy in Duke blue.

DqDRQb8X0AAiXa7.jpg

Anthony Harris did this after his Duke visit for what it's worth. Personally, I don't think it means anything. It's something that players are doing on social media after an official visit.

[DavidBenAkiva]

2019 recruit Boogie Ellis, a guard of California, has booked an official visit to Durham for the weekend.

There appears to be some speculation floating that Isaiah Stewart will be in as well. Stewart has recently talked about wanting to pause his recruitment after gaining an offer from Kentucky. He then took an unannounced visit to Syracuse. I suppose it would be as equally surprising to see him take an official to Duke at this point as it would if he decides against it.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Corey Evans of Rivals had a Twitter Tuesday blog post today and had this to say about Vernon Carey's visit to Duke over the weekend:

By all accounts, Vernon Carey’s official visit to Duke over the weekend was a rousing success. While he was joined by five-star juniors B.J. Boston and Jalen Johnson, this weekend was all about Carey and how he could flourish under the tutelage of Mike Krzyzewski.

Carey, who has already visited Kentucky, will stay home next week and see Miami for the umpteenth time, though this will be an official visit. He still plans to visit North Carolina next month and a final official to Michigan State remains in the works.

Duke was the heavy favorite in the early spring but a lot has changed since then. The Spartans look to be the favorite at this point, but the Blue Devils made up major ground over the weekend. Carey's recruitment now appears to be a 1A and 1B type of situation. That is crucial since Carey’s commitment is expected to be made before the turn of the calendar and the need for interior star power is a pressing concern for Duke.

[bullettoothtony]

Corey Evans of Rivals had a Twitter Tuesday blog post today and had this to say about Vernon Carey's visit to Duke over the weekend:

Is he accurate about Michigan State being the favorite? I've heard speculation but he seems to suggest it's known.

[JasonEvans]

Is he accurate about Michigan State being the favorite? I've heard speculation but he seems to suggest it's known.

"Accurate?!?!" What determines "accuracy" in recruiting at this point in the cycle?

It is clear that Carey or people close to him have been talking about Mich St. lately, leading some recruiting gurus to speculate that the Spartans are the current team to beat. Following the Duke visit, folks now say Duke is back in it. But, the bottom line is that it does not sound like Carey has made up his mind about anything and there is still a ways to go before he does. Duke has a chance and is being strongly considered by Vernon and his family. That's all we can say at this point with any degree of "accuracy."

[bullettoothtony]

So essentially he's likely just speculating. That what I wanted to know... thank you.

[Troublemaker]

Boogie Ellis visiting this weekend (247Sports)

Somewhat interesting peek behind the curtain of 2019 recruiting, maybe:

Ellis was the player they found and Duke immediately offered a scholarship, with Coach K explaining the delay in recruiting Ellis more fully.

"Hey, you know, I'm a loyal guy," the Duke head coach told Ellis and his AAU coach Marshawn Cherry. "I've been talking to these two kids (Antoine and Josiah James who committed to Tennessee) forever. Now we didn't get them. They told me they were coming. So I didn't offer any other guys because I'm loyal."

[Spanarkel]

Boogie Ellis visiting this weekend (247Sports)

Somewhat interesting peek behind the curtain of 2019 recruiting, maybe:

Ellis was the player they found and Duke immediately offered a scholarship, with Coach K explaining the delay in recruiting Ellis more fully.

"Hey, you know, I'm a loyal guy," the Duke head coach told Ellis and his AAU coach Marshawn Cherry. "I've been talking to these two kids (Antoine and Josiah James who committed to Tennessee) forever. Now we didn't get them. They told me they were coming. So I didn't offer any other guys because I'm loyal."

Coach K could have tactfully left out the "they told me they were coming" imo. It's expected for 18-year olds to change their minds.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Boogie Ellis visiting this weekend (247Sports)

Somewhat interesting peek behind the curtain of 2019 recruiting, maybe:

Ellis was the player they found and Duke immediately offered a scholarship, with Coach K explaining the delay in recruiting Ellis more fully.

"Hey, you know, I'm a loyal guy," the Duke head coach told Ellis and his AAU coach Marshawn Cherry. "I've been talking to these two kids (Antoine and Josiah James who committed to Tennessee) forever. Now we didn't get them. They told me they were coming. So I didn't offer any other guys because I'm loyal."

Good find! I find it interesting how Coach K and the staff pitched Ellis as an off-ball scoring option that could fill in at the point if it comes to it. It really seems like the staff is thinking that Tre Jones will be a sophomore at Duke but there is enough of a chance that he won't that they don't want to risk being stuck without a couple of options. If Duke is able to snag Ellis, I really like the options available at the guard and wing spots heading into next season.

Jones (maybe), Goldwire at the point
Alex O'Connell, Ellis off the ball
Wendell Moore, Joey Baker on the wing

[Troublemaker]

Coach K could have tactfully left out the "they told me they were coming" imo. It's expected for 18-year olds to change their minds.

Only if Coach K thought the quote would be publicized, which he probably didn't. (Assuming he's even quoted correctly). Otherwise, I see it as an important aspect of the explanation he was providing Ellis.

[53n206]

Only if Coach K thought the quote would be publicized, which he probably didn't. (Assuming he's even quoted correctly). Otherwise, I see it as an important aspect of the explanation he was providing Ellis.

Publicized or not, I agree that it is an important aspect in recruiting Ellis.

[DukieTiger]

I’m excited about the Ellis visit for many reasons, but none more than he’s a quality ball handler who seems like he might stick in college for a couple years. What do we think - is Ellis a likely multi-year guy? Or am I missing something about him?

-Dukie “ready for more upperclassman ball handlers to come through the program” Tiger
(Sorry Jason)

[JasonEvans]

-Dukie “ready for more upperclassman ball handlers to come through the program” Tiger
(Sorry Jason)

Love it... I ain't got no copyright on that sucker.

[Kedsy]

If Duke is able to snag Ellis, I really like the options available at the guard and wing spots heading into next season.

Jones (maybe), Goldwire at the point
Alex O'Connell, Ellis off the ball
Wendell Moore, Joey Baker on the wing

Jones: #13 RSCI (soph)
Goldwire: #300+ (junior)
AOC: #69 RSCI (junior)
Ellis: #49 Summer RSCI (freshman)
Moore: #22 Summer RSCI (freshman)
Baker: #37 RSCI (sophomore)

I think this could be a careful-what-you-wish-for moment. This roster would represent a very different Duke perimeter (from a talent standpoint) than we're used to. I know many people have wanted us to move away from the OAD model (and that the new NBA rules might have some bearing on the talent level generally available), but just because UNC and Villanova have won with rosters constructed primarily* of non-top 30 players doesn't mean all teams constructed that way have the talent to win at the highest level.

And my concern would skyrocket if (as expected) Tre Jones is not at Duke for his sophomore year.


* - it's also worth noting that UNC's recent Final Four teams each had five top 30 players (all multi-year players in 2016 and all but one multi-year players in 2018; and both UNC teams had three multi-year top 15 guys); Villanova's recent champions have only had one and two top 30 guys, but they also had Mikal Bridges who was a star despite his #96 RSCI (which happens very occasionally). Neither model is capable of sustainable success.

[BD80]

Love it... I ain't got no copyright on that sucker.

Sigh. That type of signature would be your trademark.

Your original and artistic expression of ideas is automatically subject to copyright.

At least you didn't mention patent rights.

[MarkD83]

Villanova's recent champions have only had one and two top 30 guys, but they also had Mikal Bridges who was a star despite his #96 RSCI (which happens very occasionally). Neither model is capable of sustainable success.

And we often underestimate how much better players get when they are in college, so is Bridges #96 RSCI irrelevant. if we instead rated the players each year by their talent level these Villanova teams did have more talent than we suspect.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Jones: #13 RSCI (soph)
Goldwire: #300+ (junior)
AOC: #69 RSCI (junior)
Ellis: #49 Summer RSCI (freshman)
Moore: #22 Summer RSCI (freshman)
Baker: #37 RSCI (sophomore)

I think this could be a careful-what-you-wish-for moment. This roster would represent a very different Duke perimeter (from a talent standpoint) than we're used to. I know many people have wanted us to move away from the OAD model (and that the new NBA rules might have some bearing on the talent level generally available), but just because UNC and Villanova have won with rosters constructed primarily* of non-top 30 players doesn't mean all teams constructed that way have the talent to win at the highest level.

And my concern would skyrocket if (as expected) Tre Jones is not at Duke for his sophomore year.


* - it's also worth noting that UNC's recent Final Four teams each had five top 30 players (all multi-year players in 2016 and all but one multi-year players in 2018; and both UNC teams had three multi-year top 15 guys); Villanova's recent champions have only had one and two top 30 guys, but they also had Mikal Bridges who was a star despite his #96 RSCI (which happens very occasionally). Neither model is capable of sustainable success.

My original post ignored the frontcourt. There are some moving parts there, but it's possible Duke could add the following:

Vernon Carey: #2 summer RSCI (freshman)
Javin DeLaurier: #35 final RSCI (senior)
Marques Bolden: #10 (senior)
Jack White: #100+ (senior)
Justin Robinson: #300+ (RS-senior)

By way of comparison to UNC of 2016 and Villanova of 2015 and 2018, that would be more comparable to UNC's team and far more experienced than recent Duke teams.