2019 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[thedukelamere]

In fact, rain is NOT a percentage event. It is a pregnancy type event. Either 100% or 0%. You are getting wet or not!

But the $1M question remains; will it be the wettest you've ever seen from the standpoint of water?

[DavidBenAkiva]

That may be true, but I still find that unlikely. The coaching staff has been in this position countless times before. I can't imagine that they use messaging to recruits that would be a tell. If so, that would be shocking as I've never seen or heard that sort of thing before and have no reason to suspect our staff to be that dumb and/or unaware.

These guys have been around the block, especially K. They know what they're doing. As someone recently engaged and starting the wedding planning process, I liken recruiting to that. The staff (wedding vendors) have done this sort of thing countless times before and know all of the negotiating/posturing tactics that a recruit (me) is going to think of and do. A recruit (me) is going through the experience for the first (and only) time. As savvy as I think I am at negotiating, I'm getting trucked over by vendors: they know the prices, they know the demand, they know what you are going to potentially want before you've even seen or thought about it. I imagine there being some of that same dynamic in recruiting. The coaching staffs have the upper hand in terms of experience.

We just missed a couple guys. It sucks, but it's OK.

- Chillin

Congrats! I got married just about and year ago and can completely relate.

[English]

In fact, rain is NOT a percentage event. It is a pregnancy type event. Either 100% or 0%. You are getting wet or not!

Whether this is relevant to your post or not, I'm not completely sure...but I think many misinterpret the way the 247 Crystal Ball works. The analysts don't assign a percentage likelihood of a recruit choosing a certain school. They pick the school they believe, with the information or speculation available, the recruit will choose. One school, with the opportunity to change their pick should information change. Now, when the CB says a recruit is 55% likely to pick Duke, it's not because everyone is 55% sure that the guy will choose Duke. It's because Duke has garnered 55% of the analyst predictions. That's not the same as a 55% likelihood of a guy choosing Duke, nor should every analyst on the site be given the same amount of credibility/skepticism.

And for the record, I subscribe to the view that the CB should or could be used as one of many indicators, with the obvious caveat that it's frequently wrong but provides a glimpse of the conventional thinking of those who have the luxury/misfortune of being around the sport, high-level high school, and college hoops much more than I do.

[camion]

Whether rain has occurred is a polar thing, but it can't be called a "likelihood." Whether or not rain will occur at a given place in the future has a likelihood. How you define "rain" is another question entirely.

Is rain bipolar then?

[wobatus]

Just wanted to note that PASR had Duke as the #3 choice for Zion, the #2 choice for RJ, and the #2 choice for Cam. According to PASR, we were supposed to have a 1 person class last year, Tre Jones and that was it.

Still, anything that provies more guidance and info is interesting and useful. I'll be checking it out going forward, that's for sure.

-Jason "like all attempts at guessing at recruiting, there are going to be some wild misses" Evans

True. Just another thing to look at. Duke was right there in PASR for Zion, Reddish and Barrett. It had UK 22.54%, UNC 21.87% and Duke 20.96%. essentially a toss up (and awfully precise estimates). Which suggests that at the margins it isn't all that helpful. They each had a slightly over 1 in 5 shot. Totally via inputs, which includes visits, but not scuttlebutt guys on the ground might hear.

[El_Diablo]

Thus is a tough fanbase, man.

Kill at recruiting, get ridiculous numbers of top prospects? "One-and-done is killing us. The teams never gel. We don't bond with the players. They underachieve. They can't play Duke defense. This is making a mockery of "college basketball." We need to recruit more 3- and 4-year guys.

Miss on a couple of top prospects? We've lost our edge. K is too old. Capel was the recruiting force. There must be something going on that's not good that we don't know about. The ex-players and/or their families are badmouthing the program.

No way to win.

Don't worry; there is one clear way to win here. We just need to win a national championship, and then we will conform the narrative retroactively to explain why our recruiting strategy was the correct one.

[sagegrouse]

Whether rain has occurred is a polar thing, but it can't be called a "likelihood." Whether or not rain will occur at a given place in the future has a likelihood. How you define "rain" is another question entirely.

Ay, but have ye seen the mists of the Emerald Isle?

[budwom]

But the $1M question remains; will it be the wettest you've ever seen from the standpoint of water?

Ha, I just read that quote in the paper moments ago, I have to say I had to stop and think about it (from the standpoint of my brain)...

[BD80]

In fact, rain is NOT a percentage event. It is a pregnancy type event. Either 100% or 0%. You are getting wet or not!

Either way you look at it, it is best to wear a raincoat ...

[rsvman]

Ha, I just read that quote in the paper moments ago, I have to say I had to stop and think about it (from the standpoint of my brain)...

Almost as bad as "I know how hard it is for you to put food on your family."

[mattman91]

Almost as bad as "I know how hard it is for you to put food on your family."

“Families is where our nation finds hope, where wings take dream."

[BD80]

“Families is where our nation finds hope, where wings take dream."

Anywhere wings take dream, the ceiling is the roof.

[mattman91]

Anywhere wings take dream, the ceiling is the roof.

Fortunately for us, the Roof was not the ceiling for our football program.

Back on topic, I really hope we land Wendell Moore.

[Natty_B]

Gonna break my own rule and provide a Crystal Ball update. Andrew Slater who is (could be wrong) one of the more respected guys on that site (83% accuracy last year) made picks last night - Stewart to MSU and Ellis to Cheats. Of course he picked Josiah James to Clemson two days before James picked Vols so YMMV.

[richardjackson199]

Gonna break my own rule and provide a Crystal Ball update. Andrew Slater who is (could be wrong) one of the more respected guys on that site (83% accuracy last year) made picks last night - Stewart to MSU and Ellis to Cheats. Of course he picked Josiah James to Clemson two days before James picked Vols so YMMV.

Ouch

[rasputin]

“Families is where our nation finds hope, where wings take dream."

Is our children learning?

[Owen Meany]

Ouch

This would indeed be painful, as Bacot was considered a very strong Duke lean. The perception, at least, was that Duke eased off of Bacot to prioritize Stewart. Bacot trended toward unc and his stick improved over a very good summer of play. Duke appeared to try get back into the recruitment, but Bacot went with unc. Possibly even more painful - it was mentioned somewhere (perhaps here?) that Bacot is close to Anthony.

Hopefully these are random misses, but recruits are definitely interested in who they will come in with so it could make the coach's jobs more difficult selling remaining recruits for this cycle if Duke does miss on Stewart.

I didn't even realize MSU was in the running for Stewart. Perhaps that would at least make it less likely Carey goes there.

[Natty_B]

I didn't even realize MSU was in the running for Stewart. Perhaps that would at least make it less likely Carey goes there.

Jeff Borzello is also picking Stewart goes to MSU although he says he's only 35% confident in the pick:

http://insider.espn.com/mens-college...2020-prospects

I can't read the rest of the article (sorry Disney I already pay for ESPN I'm not also paying for ESPN+) but it apparently also talks about Moore's visit this weekend and I assume picks Duke as the final choice.

[cato]

Is it possible that Rick Barnes pointed out that Josiah might get the Quinn Cook treatment had he gone to Duke?

Developed into a national championship winning combo guard, while taught the work ethic and skills that enabled him to fight his way onto the roster of the best basketball team on earth (with another ring to prove it)?

[Pghdukie]

Back on topic. Wendell Moore on an official visit to Duke this weekend.