2019 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[Ian]

Is staff assuming that Tre Jones is definitely gone after this season? Cam, RJ, and Zion are as close as we get to locks to be OAD, but Tre doesn't seem to fit that bill just yet. Tyus, somewhat surprisingly, played his way into the back half of the first round with an absolutely sensational season. I certainly HOPE that Tre manages to do the same thing, because that would mean that Duke has a lot of team success in 2019. Still, the odds are against Tre being as good as his brother, although he could have a very good year and still fall short of the extremely high bar set by Tyus. It's possible that Tre could be the multi-year point guard we thought Tyus would be before he exceeded expectations. I'm not rooting for this, necessarily. I want Tre and Duke to have as much success as possible next year. But he doesn't seem to be lock to be OAD like the others, based off of recruiting rankings and off of scouting reports from people tuned into the NBA.

OAD at Duke isn't about how good a season a player had any more, it's more about the mentality of the player. If a player comes in with the mentality that he's only staying one year, then even if he has a decent but unspectacular freshmen season like Jackson or a somewhat subpar freshmen season like Duval, and is projected out of the first round, he will still go.

I think the staff has to do has better job of avoiding players with that mentality. It's one thing if such players are all like MBIII, they will give you one spectacular season. But when they give you one ok season, the resources devoted to recruiting them and the minutes given to them to develop them doesn't yield enough payoff to be worth the investment.

[kAzE]

OAD at Duke isn't about how good a season a player had any more, it's more about the mentality of the player. If a player comes in with the mentality that he's only staying one year, then even if he has a decent but unspectacular freshmen season like Jackson or a somewhat subpar freshmen season like Duval, and is projected out of the first round, he will still go.

I think the staff has to do has better job of avoiding players with that mentality. It's one thing if such players are all like MBIII, they will give you one spectacular season. But when they give you one ok season, the resources devoted to recruiting them and the minutes given to them to develop them doesn't yield enough payoff to be worth the investment.

I think this is the wrong way to look at it. How are you supposed to predict who is going to have a "subpar" season, as you put it? Tre Duval was a top 5 recruit and the #1 PG prospect in the country last year. He is a very good player who could have had huge numbers at a different school with a higher usage role. Instead, he went to Duke and accepted a much smaller role in the hopes that he could be part of something bigger than himself in the pursuit of a national championship. Maybe it didn't work out the way we all imagined it would, but he was either the best or 2nd best player on the Duke roster in the Sweet 16, so I don't think of his season as subpar at all. He got better as the season progressed, like any young player would. He was certainly better than your average 5 star freshman point guard.

Furthermore, Duval may have had a reduced role next year as a result of Tre Jones joining the team. Duval may have even considered returning if that was not the case. We'll never know.

Frank Jackson I think was a totally different case. Nobody actually thought he would be a OAD. He came off the bench for most of the season. His performance at the NBA combine and the feedback he got from NBA scouts pushed him in to the draft. I don't believe he went to Duke with the mindset of leaving after 1 year.

These things are hard to predict. Sometimes it works out great, like in 2015, sometimes you just barely fall short of the Final 4. The pieces didn't quite fit perfectly and we still had as good a shot at the national title as anyone in the country. I'm okay with that.

[olegreg]

I think Duke has to recruit with the assumption that Jones is a OAD. The bigger question might be what Duke is telling top-tier points in the class of 2019. Are guys like Cole Anthony assuming the starting PG spot will be open? Are they willing to wait until spring to gain more clarity?

Agreed guys like cole anthony will need to wait till spring to see if jones is likely 1 and done. 1 thing to keep a eye on is rj hampton class of 2020 he may reclass to his original class of 2019. Turns 18 in February. 6"5ish pg from texas.

[Ian]

I think this is the wrong way to look at it. How are you supposed to predict who is going to have a "subpar" season, as you put it? Tre Duval was a top 5 recruit and the #1 PG prospect in the country last year. He is a very good player who could have had huge numbers at a different school with a higher usage role. Instead, he went to Duke and accepted a much smaller role in the hopes that he could be part of something bigger than himself in the pursuit of a national championship. Maybe it didn't work out the way we all imagined it would, but he was either the best or 2nd best player on the Duke roster in the Sweet 16, so I don't think of his season as subpar at all. He got better as the season progressed, like any young player would. He was certainly better than your average 5 star freshman point guard.

Furthermore, Duval may have had a reduced role next year as a result of Tre Jones joining the team. Duval may have even considered returning if that was not the case. We'll never know.

Frank Jackson I think was a totally different case. Nobody actually thought he would be a OAD. He came off the bench for most of the season. His performance at the NBA combine and the feedback he got from NBA scouts pushed him in to the draft. I don't believe he went to Duke with the mindset of leaving after 1 year.

These things are hard to predict. Sometimes it works out great, like in 2015, sometimes you just barely fall short of the Final 4. The pieces didn't quite fit perfectly and we still had as good a shot at the national title as anyone in the country. I'm okay with that.

Prediction is hard, but not impossible, and for the amount of money the staff makes, they should be doing things that are hard. Frankly predicting a mediocre year for Duval wasn't that hard. Just based on how bad a shooter he was in high school, it was not hard to figure that he was very raw, he might have moments of greatness, but will also struggle greatly at times and overall unlikely be a star level performer. Duke could have had Matt Coleman had they made him the 1st priority over Duval. Coleman ended up with a season not unlike Duval's, had his struggles and also had his moments, but he'll be around in year 2 and by year 3 he'll probably be one of the top PG in the B12.

[JNort]

Prediction is hard, but not impossible, and for the amount of money the staff makes, they should be doing things that are hard. Frankly predicting a mediocre year for Duval wasn't that hard. Just based on how bad a shooter he was in high school, it was not hard to figure that he was very raw, he might have moments of greatness, but will also struggle greatly at times and overall unlikely be a star level performer. Duke could have had Matt Coleman had they made him the 1st priority over Duval. Coleman ended up with a season not unlike Duval's, had his struggles and also had his moments, but he'll be around in year 2 and by year 3 he'll probably be one of the top PG in the B12.

I'm not sure I'm following... are you saying we need to try and find worse players? Cause that is basically the only way guys will stay. Look at Luke, we all thought he was a 4 year guy and he had 1 great season so he left after only 2 years. That could happen with any recruit, if we go sign the 50th ranked player and he gets good minutes and has good numbers he would still go pro as well.

Imo the problem isn't with the OAD type of guys. The problem is the next tier of guys who used to wanna stay for 4 years are now leaving early. Coach has done recruiting perfectly, sign 1 or 2 OAD talents and mix in the 4 year type guys who could go on to be college stars (usually ranked 12th to 30th). However those guys havent been staying (Tyus, Winslow to a degree, Jackson and Luke) plus the perplexing transfers of some guys who weren't gonna lose a spot to a OAD but just wanted to leave anyway for whatever reasons have made K's strategy not as full proof as some would like.

[NSDukeFan]

Prediction is hard, but not impossible, and for the amount of money the staff makes, they should be doing things that are hard. Frankly predicting a mediocre year for Duval wasn't that hard. Just based on how bad a shooter he was in high school, it was not hard to figure that he was very raw, he might have moments of greatness, but will also struggle greatly at times and overall unlikely be a star level performer. Duke could have had Matt Coleman had they made him the 1st priority over Duval. Coleman ended up with a season not unlike Duval's, had his struggles and also had his moments, but he'll be around in year 2 and by year 3 he'll probably be one of the top PG in the B12.

I don't disagree much with your comment and reasoning, but Duval is such an athletic freak and good ball-handler that he is likely going to be very impressive when he puts it all together. It was probably worth the risk to try to be the coaches that tried to help him reach his potential. I would think as coaches that would be fun.

[Ian]

I'm not sure I'm following... are you saying we need to try and find worse players? Cause that is basically the only way guys will stay. Look at Luke, we all thought he was a 4 year guy and he had 1 great season so he left. That could happen with any recruit, if we go sign the 50th ranked player and he gets good minutes and has good numbers he would still go pro as well.

If by worse players you mean we should get more players like Coleman and less players like Duval, then yes. They had very similar freshmen seasons, yet one is gone and the other is probably a 3-4 year player.

I don't disagree much with your comment and reasoning, but Duval is such an athletic freak and good ball-handler that he is likely going to be very impressive when he puts it all together. It was probably worth the risk to try to be the coaches that tried to help him reach his potential. I would think as coaches that would be fun.

The odds that he was going to put everything together in his first and only year at Duke was very low. That not how player development work. So I don't consider it worth the risk at all. And if the coaching staff thought so then I have doubts about their their risk assessment skills.

The only argument that I might buy is that they didn't want a sophomore Matt Coleman because it might have scared away Tre Jones. But even then, so what. It's not a foregone conclusion that a 1st year Jones would necessarily be better than a 2nd year Coleman. I'd put that at 50/50.

BTW, I want to make it clear I'm not some huge fan of Matt Coleman. I'm merely using him to illustrate a point about the opportunity cost of our recruiting decisions.

[Kedsy]

If by worse players you mean we should get more players like Coleman and less players like Duval, then yes. They had very similar freshmen seasons, yet one is gone and the other is probably a 3-4 year player.

One was rated the 5th best player in the class, the other was rated the 47th best. And whether or not you thought they'd have similar seasons their freshman year, history suggested otherwise.

Here's a list of top 10 (RSCI) players (other than Duval) who came to Duke in the past 20 or so years:

Marvin Bagley
Wendell Carter
Harry Giles
Jayson Tatum
Brandon Ingram
Jahlil Okafor
Tyus Jones
Jabari Parker
Austin Rivers
Kyrie Irving
Kyle Singler
Gerald Henderson
Josh McRoberts
Shelden Williams
Chris Duhon
Jason Williams
Carlos Boozer
Elton Brand
Shane Battier

All but Giles were major contributors as freshmen (and Giles was a special case due to injuries and he was at least in the rotation). Almost all were stars, even as freshmen.

Here's the list of guys in the 30s to 60s (again RSCI) who came to Duke in the same time period:

Alex O'Connell (#69)
Jordan Tucker (#59, transferred)
Javin DeLaurier (#35)
Semi Ojeleye (#32, transferred)
Matt Jones (#34)
Quinn Cook (#31)
Alex Murphy (#49, transferred)
Marshall Plumlee (#61)
Josh Hairston (#32)
Olek Czyz (#66, transferred)
Eric Boateng (#39 transferred)
Jamal Boykin (#60, transferred)
Marty Pocius (#53)
Michael Thompson (#30, transferred)

None of these guys were legitimate rotation players as freshmen. Only two of these guys (Quinn Cook, 11.4 mpg, and Alex O'Connell, 10.1 mpg) even cracked 10 mpg as freshmen and none of them exceeded 11.5 mpg in their first year. Worse than that, 50% of these guys transferred before they could be that multi-year player you covet, and two of the remaining seven never became anything more than end-of-the-bench guys. We don't know about Javin or Alex yet, but only three of the other 12 (25%) ever became starters at Duke (and one of them only became a starter as a senior and another was much maligned here on DBR).

Given a choice between getting a guy qualified for the first list vs. a guy qualified for the second list, it's sort of a no brainer.

[cato]

If by worse players you mean we should get more players like Coleman and less players like Duval, then yes. They had very similar freshmen seasons, yet one is gone and the other is probably a 3-4 year player.

If Grayson’s floater has gone in, Trevon Duval would have been the reason Duke went to the final four. I am happy Duval played for Duke.

[Dev11]

If by worse players you mean we should get more players like Coleman and less players like Duval, then yes. They had very similar freshmen seasons, yet one is gone and the other is probably a 3-4 year player.



The odds that he was going to put everything together in his first and only year at Duke was very low. That not how player development work. So I don't consider it worth the risk at all. And if the coaching staff thought so then I have doubts about their their risk assessment skills.

The only argument that I might buy is that they didn't want a sophomore Matt Coleman because it might have scared away Tre Jones. But even then, so what. It's not a foregone conclusion that a 1st year Jones would necessarily be better than a 2nd year Coleman. I'd put that at 50/50.

BTW, I want to make it clear I'm not some huge fan of Matt Coleman. I'm merely using him to illustrate a point about the opportunity cost of our recruiting decisions.

I appreciate this argument, but I think you're giving the coaches too much credit on how well they can project players and how small the error bars are. Presumably, the best people in the world at that job are NBA GMs, and the draft is still something of a crapshoot even towards the top. I'm sure the Duke coaches, who have worked with a long list of great shooters and/or been great shooters themselves, thought they could fix Duval's shot fairly easily, especially when he wouldn't be the focus of the offense. That they failed to meet such an expectation is a small, not a major, indictment on their development program.

Duke has been the victim of its own success with early NBA departures. Frank Jackson, Luke Kennard, Justise Winslow, and Tyus Jones all probably expected to stay in college longer than they did, but such is being a high major program these days.

[Ian]

One was rated the 5th best player in the class, the other was rated the 47th best. And whether or not you thought they'd have similar seasons their freshman year, history suggested otherwise.

A huge part of the HS ranking is based on their NBA potential and has nothing to do with their expected production in college. College coaching staffs cannot get caught up in that because their job is only about productivity in college. That is entirely my point, they should have a traget profile that is indepent from the published recruit rankings. High ceiling, Raw skills, and OAD mentality, is the worst possible combination of characteristic that should be avoided in the future.

[godins]

A huge part of the HS ranking is based on their NBA potential and has nothing to do with their expected production in college. College coaching staffs cannot get caught up in that because their job is only about productivity in college. That is entirely my point, they should have a traget profile that is indepent from the published recruit rankings. High ceiling, Raw skills, and OAD mentality, is the worst possible combination of characteristic that should be avoided in the future.

This is an interesting premise, but I don't agree with you. I suspect the MBB scouts don't either. Do you have any MBB scouts backing you up on this? NBA scouts produce their rankings (mock drafts) based on NBA potential. College scouts do not. Does NBA potential factor into rankings? Sure, of course it does. Having athleticism like Zion -- a translatable skill to the NBA -- may bump him up a few slots in Paul Biancardi's ranking. He's human -- the WOW factor definitely applies. But that athleticism is also the reason Zion's better than everyone in the college recruiting rankings, you see. It's his differentiating factor.

[ipatent]

Read that Duke is visiting Jalen
Lecque today. He happens to play for Christ School (where the Plumlees played) which is about 2.5 miles away from my condo, so I've been able to see him play - absolute freak athlete.

Isn't there a poster here that has a son that plays for Christ School? Any Intel? I've always heard UNC was the favorite.

Don't know but this article on a Kentucky site suggests he is reclassifying into 2018.

Kentucky is already loaded at guard but despite this is looking for Ashton Hagans and possibly Tyrese Maxey to reclassify into 2018. Will Quade Green transfer to Villanova?

[Ian]

This is an interesting premise, but I don't agree with you. I suspect the MBB scouts don't either. Do you have any MBB scouts backing you up on this? NBA scouts produce their rankings (mock drafts) based on NBA potential. College scouts do not. Does NBA potential factor into rankings? Sure, of course it does. Having athleticism like Zion -- a translatable skill to the NBA -- may bump him up a few slots in Paul Biancardi's ranking. He's human -- the WOW factor definitely applies. But that athleticism is also the reason Zion's better than everyone in the college recruiting rankings, you see. It's his differentiating factor.

I'm pretty confident in saying that NBA potential plays a big part in these HS rankings.

[jv001]

If Grayson’s floater has gone in, Trevon Duval would have been the reason Duke went to the final four. I am happy Duval played for Duke.

If Grayson's floater had gone in, Grayson would have been the reason Duke went to the FF. GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

A huge part of the HS ranking is based on their NBA potential and has nothing to do with their expected production in college. College coaching staffs cannot get caught up in that because their job is only about productivity in college. That is entirely my point, they should have a traget profile that is indepent from the published recruit rankings. High ceiling, Raw skills, and OAD mentality, is the worst possible combination of characteristic that should be avoided in the future.

I get that you feel that way. That's why I included the player lists. Historically, players ranked where Trevon was ranked have a 90+% chance of being impact players as freshmen at Duke (even if that's their only year) and players ranked where Coleman was ranked have approximately a 25% to 35% chance of ever being a major contributor at Duke. This has nothing to do with NBA potential. A top 10 guy is a much better bet than a 30 to 70 guy, even if all you get is one year.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Duke appears to be in a good position for Top 30 wing Wendell Moore of Concord, North Carolina. The young G/F is 6'5" and plays with a mix of energy, athleticism, and ballhandling. The coaching staff, led by Coach K, paid a visit to Moore and his family on Sunday and several Duke insiders indicate that the meeting went well. Here's a video of the player from USA Team tryouts in October 2017:

https://youtu.be/V17aLasSik4

[JNort]

If by worse players you mean we should get more players like Coleman and less players like Duval, then yes. They had very similar freshmen seasons, yet one is gone and the other is probably a 3-4 year player.

Hate to keep picking on your post here but, I also would like to point out this is just cherry picking. You "seemingly" picked him only because he had a similar season, that just isn't a good way to do it (hindsight and all). We had no way of knowing Coleman would do as well as he has. Also who's to say he would do that at Duke? He probably would have rode the bench.

What does "more players like Coleman" even mean. This was what I was trying to get at. Can we put a number on it or what? Cause Tyus, Thorton and Frank were all supposed to be 3-4 year guys and should still all be on the roster but things happen that we can't foresee.

It seems you just don't want guys to have upside that the NBA loves nor do you want them to be good enough to get noticed either. To me both of those just seem silly.

[proelitedota]

Duke appears to be in a good position for Top 30 wing Wendell Moore of Concord, North Carolina. The young G/F is 6'5" and plays with a mix of energy, athleticism, and ballhandling. The coaching staff, led by Coach K, paid a visit to Moore and his family on Sunday and several Duke insiders indicate that the meeting went well. Here's a video of the player from USA Team tryouts in October 2017:

https://youtu.be/V17aLasSik4

Reminds me of Matt Jones. Would be a good get.

[mr. synellinden]

Reminds me of Matt Jones. Would be a good get.

I see me some Thomas Hill.